Trey Lance QB NDSU

There are several reasons why I have a late 2nd to early 3rd round grade on Lance. He's my 6th rated QB in this class. It boils down to what we've seen from him so far and what we can project him to be in the future. That's where the problem lies. There isn't enough out there to confidently project what you're actually getting. You've got a 20 year old prospect (soon to be 21) from an FCS school that has 318 career passing attempts and 17 career starts. In his only year as a starter, he threw under 20 times in 9/16 games and only threw it 30+ times once. You're looking at an average of 18 passing attempts per game. There were only 2-3 close games all year and there were virtually zero stress/crunch time throws he was asked to make. You look at the FCS National Championship game vs James Madison. He had 10 total passing attempts. I mean seriously. In his only game this year he was 15-30 for 149 yards and 2TD/1INT. This was against Central Arkansas who ended up being a 5-4 team from the Southland Conference. Then you look at his mechanics/motion and there are questions there as well. He is a pure arm thrower and fails to activate his lower half. He is upright in his motion and straight over the top. I said this in Niner Talk, but go watch his pro day and see how unnatural he looks throwing the ball. It is almost like he is guiding the ball. You even have Daniel Jeremiah saying that his pro day coach is working on getting his front foot down earlier because he has a tendency to throw with his upper body only.

This will be an interesting thread to revisit a few years from now. You've got so many people falling for the athletic ability and the perceived project-ability. In the end, I think we will all look back and think "What was everyone thinking?" I don't ever think he will have enough time to develop in the NFL.

Ben said this right after Lance's Pro day

Originally posted by BMoore56:
I could hit those 1st two passes. The 3rd ones a beauty though.

I do not believe you could throw a football 50 yards in the air across the field on a rope like that.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by BMoore56:
I could hit those 1st two passes. The 3rd ones a beauty though.

I do not believe you could throw a football 50 yards in the air across the field on a rope like that.

The WR was wide open. Like they had been most of his career. I'm a big dude and can probably sling a ball 50 yards lol. Probably not accurate tho haha

Originally posted by Scratch:
There are several reasons why I have a late 2nd to early 3rd round grade on Lance. He's my 6th rated QB in this class. It boils down to what we've seen from him so far and what we can project him to be in the future. That's where the problem lies. There isn't enough out there to confidently project what you're actually getting. You've got a 20 year old prospect (soon to be 21) from an FCS school that has 318 career passing attempts and 17 career starts. In his only year as a starter, he threw under 20 times in 9/16 games and only threw it 30+ times once. You're looking at an average of 18 passing attempts per game. There were only 2-3 close games all year and there were virtually zero stress/crunch time throws he was asked to make. You look at the FCS National Championship game vs James Madison. He had 10 total passing attempts. I mean seriously. In his only game this year he was 15-30 for 149 yards and 2TD/1INT. This was against Central Arkansas who ended up being a 5-4 team from the Southland Conference. Then you look at his mechanics/motion and there are questions there as well. He is a pure arm thrower and fails to activate his lower half. He is upright in his motion and straight over the top. I said this in Niner Talk, but go watch his pro day and see how unnatural he looks throwing the ball. It is almost like he is guiding the ball. You even have Daniel Jeremiah saying that his pro day coach is working on getting his front foot down earlier because he has a tendency to throw with his upper body only.

This will be an interesting thread to revisit a few years from now. You've got so many people falling for the athletic ability and the perceived project-ability. In the end, I think we will all look back and think "What was everyone thinking?" I don't ever think he will have enough time to develop in the NFL.

Sounds more like you looked at stats and made a decision...there is absolutely nothing unnatural about his throws, I have no idea what you're talking about...every single QB makes adjustments to their throwing motion.



I'm sorry totally disagree with this breakdown overall.

Originally posted by BMoore56:
The WR was wide open. Like they had been most of his career. I'm a big dude and can probably sling a ball 50 yards lol. Probably not accurate tho haha

It's no just 50 yards it's 50 yards across the field...not many people can make that throw for the simple fact that you need to have enough velocity on it, to get it there before a defense can react to it.

There's plenty of "Open WRs" on the opposite side of the field on most pass plays, QBs don't make a throw like that because they can't

Originally posted by Scratch:
It boils down to what we've seen from him so far and what we can project him to be in the future. That's where the problem lies.

Not "we",.... but high-level coaches. What they can project him to be after a great amount of 1-on-1 time with him. These guys didn't even get to play two full seasons. The only one that's played 2 seasons at an elite level is Lawrence.

So the problem is moreso for the fans that don't really have access to information these teams do.

I mean seriously. In his only game this year he was 15-30 for 149 yards and 2TD/1INT. This was against Central Arkansas who ended up being a 5-4 team from the Southland Conference.

You really think billion dollar organizations are making their decisions on showcase-game stat lines?

Then you look at his mechanics/motion and there are questions there as well. He is a pure arm thrower and fails to activate his lower half.

If he is such a big concern throwing the ball, he wont be drafted by us. You have nothing to worry about.

This will be an interesting thread to revisit a few years from now.

They pretty much always are.

You've got so many people falling for the athletic ability and the perceived project-ability.

As they should. Football is an athletic game and the draft is 100% projections.

I'm afraid of Lance. I dont want selecting him after the draft capital we gave up to set us back some years. Then again that's also a risk with Fields, Wilson , Jones ect. But hey Kyle knows better than we do. Whatever he does I hope it works out.

Originally posted by BMoore56:
I'm afraid of Lance. I dont want selecting him after the draft capital we gave up to set us back some years. Then again that's also a risk with Fields, Wilson , Jones ect. But hey Kyle knows better than we do. Whatever he does I hope it works out.

Well,...Wilson will probably not be there, so he's kind of a non-factor unless something wild goes down.

Originally posted by krizay:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NFLFilmStudy/status/1365558820177649666

Thanks, Krizay. Kind of makes me wonder if Fields and Wilson won't go 1 and 2. Lawrence tests out 4th.

Originally posted by BMoore56:
I'm afraid of Lance. I dont want selecting him after the draft capital we gave up to set us back some years. Then again that's also a risk with Fields, Wilson , Jones ect. But hey Kyle knows better than we do. Whatever he does I hope it works out.

Everyone is so concerned about giving up those 2 first round picks. First of all those picks will probably be in the 20s. Most people feel that after the first 10-15 players in the first round, the talent level starts to drop off. The difference between late first and second rounders isn't as great as the difference between the early 1st rounders and late 1st rounders. It's why teams late in round one often try to move up.

The other thing is, what if their pick ends up being great. It's less than 50-50 that he will be but it's a possibility. Then giving up 2 late first rounders looks pretty good.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Lance had a good workout.

If teams want him they'll need to trade to 3 though.

— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) March 12, 2021

Ben said this right after Lance's Pro day

Interesting. Seems like word got out that Atlanta wanted him at 4?

You don't mortgage the house on a project who had one college season at NDSU using the #3 pick who may not get into a game for two years. You have already messed up drafting Thomas and McGlinchy in the first round.

This is absolute stupidity.

Originally posted by Costanza:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Lance had a good workout.

If teams want him they'll need to trade to 3 though.

— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) March 12, 2021

Ben said this right after Lance's Pro day

Interesting. Seems like word got out that Atlanta wanted him at 4?

Literally at the beginning the pro day DJ said he was running specific pass plays that ATL/SF use for a reason (his agent has knowledge of who is interested).

after that workout everyone was tying ATL to him and having Ryan to be the guy for a yr (this was before the restructure). It really does make sense.

Originally posted by ComeOnDeberg:
You don't mortgage the house on a project who had one college season at NDSU using the #3 pick who may not get into a game for two years. You have already messed up drafting Thomas and McGlinchy in the first round.

This is absolute stupidity.

So what? Jones has 17 career starts. Why is Lance a project anyway...dude runs a more pro style offense than any QB out of the top 5. He's making protection calls and audibles at the LOS.