Trey Lance QB NDSU

Originally posted by 49ers808:

Originally posted by Scratch:

Originally posted by 49ers808:
Lots of rumors that Atlanta is open to trading down and already had discussions with teams. ATL been the team connected to Lance for awhile, just saying.

Nah. Fields is the guy. Atlanta wants him badly. That's why Lynch moved up to 3. Fields is a GA boy and rumors have it that Arthur Blank has a hard on for him. That's why Atlanta is looking to trade back. They got cock blocked and Fields is gonna be a 49er.

Man I hope you're right

Same but it's definitely obvious ATL would definitely take Fields

Originally posted by FredFlintstone:

Originally posted by 49ers808:

Originally posted by Scratch:

Originally posted by 49ers808:
Lots of rumors that Atlanta is open to trading down and already had discussions with teams. ATL been the team connected to Lance for awhile, just saying.

Nah. Fields is the guy. Atlanta wants him badly. That's why Lynch moved up to 3. Fields is a GA boy and rumors have it that Arthur Blank has a hard on for him. That's why Atlanta is looking to trade back. They got cock blocked and Fields is gonna be a 49er.

Man I hope you're right

Same but it's definitely obvious ATL would definitely take Fields

I heard Lance was Atlanta's guy and Fields is in danger of free falling. Hard to know what's what this time of year

Originally posted by roasthawg:

Originally posted by FredFlintstone:

Originally posted by 49ers808:

Originally posted by Scratch:

Originally posted by 49ers808:
Lots of rumors that Atlanta is open to trading down and already had discussions with teams. ATL been the team connected to Lance for awhile, just saying.

Nah. Fields is the guy. Atlanta wants him badly. That's why Lynch moved up to 3. Fields is a GA boy and rumors have it that Arthur Blank has a hard on for him. That's why Atlanta is looking to trade back. They got cock blocked and Fields is gonna be a 49er.

Man I hope you're right

Same but it's definitely obvious ATL would definitely take Fields

I heard Lance was Atlanta's guy and Fields is in danger of free falling. Hard to know what's what this time of year

Trey Lance was getting mocked to Atl after his pro day given that Atl basically had all their higher ups in organization to scout him.

Allbright who's been on target quite a bit immediately after pro day said teams would have to move up to 3 if they wanted Lance...

Originally posted by Mertonschickendance:

Originally posted by roasthawg:

Originally posted by FredFlintstone:

Originally posted by 49ers808:

Originally posted by Scratch:

Originally posted by 49ers808:
Lots of rumors that Atlanta is open to trading down and already had discussions with teams. ATL been the team connected to Lance for awhile, just saying.

Nah. Fields is the guy. Atlanta wants him badly. That's why Lynch moved up to 3. Fields is a GA boy and rumors have it that Arthur Blank has a hard on for him. That's why Atlanta is looking to trade back. They got cock blocked and Fields is gonna be a 49er.

Man I hope you're right

Same but it's definitely obvious ATL would definitely take Fields

I heard Lance was Atlanta's guy and Fields is in danger of free falling. Hard to know what's what this time of year

Trey Lance was getting mocked to Atl after his pro day given that Atl basically had all their higher ups in organization to scout him.

Allbright who's been on target quite a bit immediately after pro day said teams would have to move up to 3 if they wanted Lance...

What if Fields falls to us, and Atlanta trades up a spot and takes Lance. We get Fields and an extra pick.

Originally posted by Mertonschickendance:
Trey Lance was getting mocked to Atl after his pro day given that Atl basically had all their higher ups in organization to scout him.

Allbright who's been on target quite a bit immediately after pro day said teams would have to move up to 3 if they wanted Lance...

I think the reason Lance was being mocked to Atl is because They are locked into Ryan for the next 2 years and Lance is the one QB in this draft class that is going to need alot of time. It would be a perfect fit for the Falcons. He sits behind Ryan for 2 years and will be ready to start when Ryan's contract expires.

Originally posted by genus49:
Thank you for providing the link.

Seems like you missed the part where they explain Fields being lower on that stat you posted due to his average depth of target. Hell the way it reads is they're showing their own metrics have gaps in them.

Look, I'm an amateur arm chair GM whose primary interest is because I have a 2 QB (actually it's a SuperFlex) Dynasty Fantasy Football team. My point was to get people to look a bit deeper than an extremely biased and selective 44% number which I don't think tells anywhere near the whole story with Lance's accuracy. You have now discovered that even a single well thought out metric doesn't tell the whole story either. But the evaluations in the book aren't based on one metric either... which is why Fields is their #2 QB. Additionally, if there's one thing I would like to do, it's to get people to realize that completion % is an incredibly overused and over relied upon stat, especially when evaluating QBs for the NFL.

Feel free to poke holes in their methods all you want, but at least they have a much more holistic way to evaluate QBs. They don't use just one number, and many of the numbers they do use have been compiled by trying to eliminate things beyond the control of the QB. I got you to dig deeper and see that there is a lot more to the story than just completion %, which just scratches the surface. Mission accomplished in my mind.

Also I felt a little guilty posting a bunch of stats from a source that you have to pay to get to without any sort of approval to do so... it's not like I know the authors personally and have their permission. So I chose one metric and I thought that particular one at least showed how the 44% number specifically made Lance's accuracy look much worse than it actually is. Of course, no single metric is perfect either.

Originally posted by IceMan1763:

Originally posted by genus49:
Thank you for providing the link.

Seems like you missed the part where they explain Fields being lower on that stat you posted due to his average depth of target. Hell the way it reads is they're showing their own metrics have gaps in them.

Look, I'm an amateur arm chair GM whose primary interest is because I have a 2 QB (actually it's a SuperFlex) Dynasty Fantasy Football team. My point was to get people to look a bit deeper than an extremely biased and selective 44% number which I don't think tells anywhere near the whole story with Lance's accuracy. You have now discovered that even a single well thought out metric doesn't tell the whole story either. But the evaluations in the book aren't based on one metric either... which is why Fields is their #2 QB. Additionally, if there's one thing I would like to do, it's to get people to realize that completion % is an incredibly overused and over relied upon stat, especially when evaluating QBs for the NFL.

Feel free to poke holes in their methods all you want, but at least they have a much more holistic way to evaluate QBs. They don't use just one number, and many of the numbers they do use have been compiled by trying to eliminate things beyond the control of the QB. I got you to dig deeper and see that there is a lot more to the story than just completion %, which just scratches the surface. Mission accomplished in my mind.

Also I felt a little guilty posting a bunch of stats from a source that you have to pay to get to without any sort of approval to do so... it's not like I know the authors personally and have their permission. So I chose one metric and I thought that particular one at least showed how the 44% number specifically made Lance's accuracy look much worse than it actually is. Of course, no single metric is perfect either.

I think everyone understands stats don't reveal the whole story. We all use them to make ours points and pick and choose which ones we show, which ones we ignore. That's just how things work.

I think the people showing Lance's completion % know he's not an inaccurate passer overall but despite the numbers you posted the eye test shows Fields to be very accurate, especially given how often his offense asks him to air it out. Once again that same source mentioned depth of target impacts that stat. As we all know a throw 40 yards down the field is much harder to hit perfectly vs a 5 yard slant.

I'm not familiar with the book you mentioned but it's always nice to get another set of eyes and the fact that they dig that far into analytics and have Fields as the #2 QB certainly makes me feel better about things.

Originally posted by genus49:
I think everyone understands stats don't reveal the whole story. We all use them to make ours points and pick and choose which ones we show, which ones we ignore. That's just how things work.

I think the people showing Lance's completion % know he's not an inaccurate passer overall but despite the numbers you posted the eye test shows Fields to be very accurate, especially given how often his offense asks him to air it out. Once again that same source mentioned depth of target impacts that stat. As we all know a throw 40 yards down the field is much harder to hit perfectly vs a 5 yard slant.

I'm not familiar with the book you mentioned but it's always nice to get another set of eyes and the fact that they dig that far into analytics and have Fields as the #2 QB certainly makes me feel better about things.

Even though most get it, there's always more who could if we share what we learn. I've just seen that 44% stat flat out put up here, by itself, with no context and I see an opportunity to educate and expand the viewpoint of others.

In regard to the depth of target accuracy difference, I have heard scouts attribute at least part of that to the difference in the types of offense being run. Completing option routes in an offense that frequently spreads the field with more receiving targets than a pro style offense like NDSU might naturally lead to a higher completion %. The theory is interesting and does make some sense to me.

Just from an "eye test" point of view, I don't find either to be concerningly inaccurate. Both miss passes at times, of course, but looking at the whole tape you see plenty of examples of well thrown balls from each.

Listened to a few interviews with Lance. He comes off really well...smart guy, humble, likable, ect. He comes across much better in interviews than Fields or Jones imo.

Now, I am not saying he'll be a better player than those 2 guys...just that I can easily see teams falling in love with the player and person when it comes to Lance.

Originally posted by IceMan1763:
Even though most get it, there's always more who could if we share what we learn. I've just seen that 44% stat flat out put up here, by itself, with no context and I see an opportunity to educate and expand the viewpoint of others.

In regard to the depth of target accuracy difference, I have heard scouts attribute at least part of that to the difference in the types of offense being run. Completing option routes in an offense that frequently spreads the field with more receiving targets than a pro style offense like NDSU might naturally lead to a higher completion %. The theory is interesting and does make some sense to me.

Just from an "eye test" point of view, I don't find either to be concerningly inaccurate. Both miss passes at times, of course, but looking at the whole tape you see plenty of examples of well thrown balls from each.

The eye test in no way shape or form tell you Lance is an accurate passer. Jones and Fields yes. Wilson good but not great in the accuracy department. Lawrence never dove in to. But Lance..... to me is concerningly inaccurate.

But that's my main trait I focus on before getting into anything else.. Some see a catchable ball and think it's an accurate pass.

Originally posted by Costanza:
Listened to a few interviews with Lance. He comes off really well...smart guy, humble, likable, ect. He comes across much better in interviews than Fields or Jones imo.

Now, I am not saying he'll be a better player than those 2 guys...just that I can easily see teams falling in love with the player and person when it comes to Lance.

I actually think those interviews can tell a lot. Some players are just more at ease in front of a camera. Those guys are often more at ease in critical times during a game. It can show leadership and confidence.

Originally posted by krizay:
The eye test in no way shape or form tell you Lance is an accurate passer. Jones and Fields yes. Wilson good but not great in the accuracy department. Lawrence never dove in to. But Lance..... to me is concerningly inaccurate.

But that's my main trait I focus on before getting into anything else.. Some see a catchable ball and think it's an accurate pass.

The eye test is subjective by nature. Clearly I believe he passes it and you don't. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

But when his on target % and catchable % are close to everyone else in this class... I feel like your conclusion of the eye test doesn't seem to match what the metrics are saying.

There are advanced metrics people charting on target % and catchable % as separate numbers, so you could dig into to that if you wanted to. Like I said previously though, a lot of the more interesting and well researched metrics are behind website paywalls or contained in a book.

Originally posted by 49ers808:

Originally posted by Scratch:

Originally posted by 49ers808:
Lots of rumors that Atlanta is open to trading down and already had discussions with teams. ATL been the team connected to Lance for awhile, just saying.

Nah. Fields is the guy. Atlanta wants him badly. That's why Lynch moved up to 3. Fields is a GA boy and rumors have it that Arthur Blank has a hard on for him. That's why Atlanta is looking to trade back. They got cock blocked and Fields is gonna be a 49er.

Man I hope you're right

This would be great news, but I think the same possibility applies for Lance (since they supposedly like him).

But even if this is true, it's Atlanta intel. They might still be wrong. How could they know for sure? Do they have spies among the 49ers scouting staff?

These two games make me want to draft him at 3. I know the competition he's facing is not good. But just watching his footwork and the athleticism is enough for me to think Shanahan can turn him into a star.

I really like Fields and I keep going back and forth. But I'd be extremely happy if we landed this kid.