Trey Lance QB NDSU

0% chance he's a 9er

This is the guy the webzone is talking about the least. Therefore he will be the pick.

Originally posted by IceMan1763:

Originally posted by NTeply49:
NO ON TREY LANCE FOR SO MANY REASONS!!!! I can see the talent, and the raw attributes. Looks like a Colin Kaepernick clone. My issues are,
2019 he averaged less than 18 pass attempts per game. In 2020, he had 30 attempts in one game and only completed 15 passes.
He looks big and fast but he's also not playing against NFL talent.
I don't see a lot of tight window anticipation throws. If he is throwing someone open, its in man coverage 1 on 1, or the guy is wide open.
I just don't see how anyone could want Lance over Fields. I even like Mac Jones more than him. I am so confused.
I see the amazing deep ball, but he has a clean pocket on most of those due to how much they run. They literally ran the ball on 70% of the plays. They ran the ball on 719 plays to only 304 pass attempts that season.
This dude is a LONG term DEVELOPMENTAL project. Not who you draft with the 3d overall pick.

The majority of your criticisms are actually criticisms of NDSU's playbook. Which they used to go undefeated and win a National Championship.

Also it's fine to like Fields over Lance, I have them pretty much equal, but Jones played on one of the most talented offenses ever so if Lance was throwing to wide open guys then Jones was throwing to wide open guys with no pressure. Like ever. Seriously on his tape it looks like the offensive and defensive lines don't even exist on the majority of the plays.

You expect him to go from a minimal offensive run based game plan to being able to execute complex passing concepts fluidly while learning on the scout team? Your defense of him having no experience running a real offense is because they have a championship offense that will not be effective in the NFL, and he will effectively need to learn and master all of the passing concepts. Not saying he can't do it, but nothing shows me he can. Fields is a better scrambler and has a far better track record of throwing the ball. I started watching him to try and convince myself that Wilson would fall to us and ended really liking Fields. How much higher do you think Lance's ceiling is? How much higher is Fields floor, and overall rating right now? To me, Fields presents the potential of all of the rewards of Lance, with less questions and risk.

Lance is like those box of cake mixtures with nice pictures of your potential cake on the box. You're going to need to make sure you have the right ingredients, know how to cook this specific cake, take the time to prepare, cook, and clean up. Fields is like picking your cake up from the bakery. Find a nice setting and a good plate, and it will work wonderfully. Basically, you get your cake and get to eat it a lot sooner.

Originally posted by jcs:
4.44 in shorts at a staged pro day is not as impressive as a GPS tracker on Lance listing a top speed of 21.54mph on a 44 yard game sealing TD run in his national championship game against James Madison.

Damn. Didnt Breida register 22mph on his opening td run vs the Browns?

Originally posted by krizay:
0% chance he's a 9er

To me there's zero chance it's Mac Jones with Fields the heavy favorite and Trey Lance with a small chance.

Originally posted by FredFlintstone:

Originally posted by FacePalm:

Originally posted by RickyRoma:
This is the guy I think I've always believed that SF has moved up for. Still thought as much through all the Jones noise, and I'll roll with it until I'm proven wrong. Not saying he's my #1 choice, but I'd be most certainly good with it.

Concur. So much so that I'm placing money in Vegas that he will be the pick. I really believe come draft night, the 49ers will surprise a lot of people by taking the QB with the highest upside in Lance. I don't think Shanny will be dissuaded by the lack of experience. If anything, I can see him valuing talent and traits over experience...especially talent that he can mold. By doing so, he will finally put to rest this silly narrative that he only prefers non-mobile system QBs.

Add the fact the scheme he played in at NDSU is very similar to Kyle's, I also get the feeling this is the guy. I really believe if he puts it all together he's going to be the best qb in this class

I really hope this happens. My gut says 5 yrs from now, Lance will be better than Jones and Fields. But I just don't see Lynch/Kyle going all in on Lance and will either go with the safest, lowest ceiling QB in Jones, or Fields, who has a high ceiling but more experience than Lance. I will be happy with Fields or Lance, but if I was picking, Lance would be my first choice.

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Originally posted by krizay:
0% chance he's a 9er

To me there's zero chance it's Mac Jones with Fields the heavy favorite and Trey Lance with a small chance.

Spot on

Originally posted by krizay:
0% chance he's a 9er

Revisit this on 4/29

Originally posted by hello49:

Originally posted by FredFlintstone:

Originally posted by FacePalm:

Originally posted by RickyRoma:
This is the guy I think I've always believed that SF has moved up for. Still thought as much through all the Jones noise, and I'll roll with it until I'm proven wrong. Not saying he's my #1 choice, but I'd be most certainly good with it.

Concur. So much so that I'm placing money in Vegas that he will be the pick. I really believe come draft night, the 49ers will surprise a lot of people by taking the QB with the highest upside in Lance. I don't think Shanny will be dissuaded by the lack of experience. If anything, I can see him valuing talent and traits over experience...especially talent that he can mold. By doing so, he will finally put to rest this silly narrative that he only prefers non-mobile system QBs.

Add the fact the scheme he played in at NDSU is very similar to Kyle's, I also get the feeling this is the guy. I really believe if he puts it all together he's going to be the best qb in this class

I really hope this happens. My gut says 5 yrs from now, Lance will be better than Jones and Fields. But I just don't see Lynch/Kyle going all in on Lance and will either go with the safest, lowest ceiling QB in Jones, or Fields, who has a high ceiling but more experience than Lance. I will be happy with Fields or Lance, but if I was picking, Lance would be my first choice.

He has a lot to like, based on watching tape of a 18 year old kid. His pocket presence is amazing. I disagree with his Kaepernick arm; he does throw in-game touch passes but his gross overthrows on deep passes are alarming. So did Josh Allen. What makes me like him is his management of an nfl style offense, making adjustments at the line. Lightning quick progression post snap. His tape study habits and intelligence are another plus.

I would say that Lance and Fields would scare the hell out of the West. In contrast, I think they'd all want us to pick Mac.

Originally posted by NTeply49:
You expect him to go from a minimal offensive run based game plan to being able to execute complex passing concepts fluidly while learning on the scout team? Your defense of him having no experience running a real offense is because they have a championship offense that will not be effective in the NFL, and he will effectively need to learn and master all of the passing concepts. Not saying he can't do it, but nothing shows me he can. Fields is a better scrambler and has a far better track record of throwing the ball. I started watching him to try and convince myself that Wilson would fall to us and ended really liking Fields. How much higher do you think Lance's ceiling is? How much higher is Fields floor, and overall rating right now? To me, Fields presents the potential of all of the rewards of Lance, with less questions and risk.

Lance is like those box of cake mixtures with nice pictures of your potential cake on the box. You're going to need to make sure you have the right ingredients, know how to cook this specific cake, take the time to prepare, cook, and clean up. Fields is like picking your cake up from the bakery. Find a nice setting and a good plate, and it will work wonderfully. Basically, you get your cake and get to eat it a lot sooner.

You are mistaking a run heavy offense for a simple one. NDSU runs the MOST pro style offense of ALL of the prospects. Especially with what the QB is tasked to do. Yes I expect he could run the offense right away. Especially the 49ers. My evidence? Carson Wentz's rookie season.

Quantifying how high each floor and ceiling is obviously pretty difficult. Whenever you're discussing these prospects you're also fighting the misconception that Lance is the least accurate, which isn't true when you dig into advanced passing metrics. It's still not a strength quite yet, but his numbers are close to the other prospects and actually by advanced passing metrics he's close enough for me to call him equally accurate to Fields. Fields benefitted from his WR catching a lot of his passes that are charted as uncatchable, increasing his completion %.

So, to answer your question, I see Lance as less raw now than many other people have taken a cursory glance at him, look at his stats without context, and are posting here. So my floor is pretty high on him, actually. I think his floor is higher than Jones because he actually has the athletic traits to compete in the modern NFL, while Jones does not. Now Fields on the other hand I believe also has tremendous upside, but needs polish just as much as Lance. I don't see Fields as anywhere near a finished product either. There is going to need to be a lot of learning he will need to do (more than Lance, in my opinion) to get up to speed with an NFL offensive system. I also feel like Lance has slightly cleaner throwing mechanics... combine that with his young age and I see pretty much an equal floor to Fields, but with a slightly higher ceiling.

I understand if someone prefers Fields to Lance, but it should be for the right reasons :). I hope I don't have to list them as they seem pretty obvious... great competitor, leader, incredible athlete, great arm, etc..

Originally posted by IceMan1763:
You are mistaking a run heavy offense for a simple one. NDSU runs the MOST pro style offense of ALL of the prospects. Especially with what the QB is tasked to do. Yes I expect he could run the offense right away. Especially the 49ers. My evidence? Carson Wentz's rookie season.

Quantifying how high each floor and ceiling is obviously pretty difficult. Whenever you're discussing these prospects you're also fighting the misconception that Lance is the least accurate, which isn't true when you dig into advanced passing metrics. It's still not a strength quite yet, but his numbers are close to the other prospects and actually by advanced passing metrics he's close enough for me to call him equally accurate to Fields. Fields benefitted from his WR catching a lot of his passes that are charted as uncatchable, increasing his completion %.

So, to answer your question, I see Lance as less raw now than many other people have taken a cursory glance at him, look at his stats without context, and are posting here. So my floor is pretty high on him, actually. I think his floor is higher than Jones because he actually has the athletic traits to compete in the modern NFL, while Jones does not. Now Fields on the other hand I believe also has tremendous upside, but needs polish just as much as Lance. I don't see Fields as anywhere near a finished product either. There is going to need to be a lot of learning he will need to do (more than Lance, in my opinion) to get up to speed with an NFL offensive system. I also feel like Lance has slightly cleaner throwing mechanics... combine that with his young age and I see pretty much an equal floor to Fields, but with a slightly higher ceiling.

I understand if someone prefers Fields to Lance, but it should be for the right reasons :). I hope I don't have to list them as they seem pretty obvious... great competitor, leader, incredible athlete, great arm, etc..

Carson Wentz had 300 more attempts than Lance did at NDSU. They're not comparable. Just cuz you run a pro offense doesn't mean you have enough experience throwing the ball in it to jump from FCS to NFL.

Originally posted by genus49:
Carson Wentz had 300 more attempts than Lance did at NDSU. They're not comparable. Just cuz you run a pro offense doesn't mean you have enough experience throwing the ball in it to jump from FCS to NFL.

Fair point, but what would 300 more passing attempts at FCS level tell you?

It's still a projection. There's enough out there for Trey to make an educated guess that he'll be great.

More college tape can reinforce that opinion, but it's still a projection.

No one really knows how a prospect will cope in the NFL with the difference of speed, talent and complexity.

Originally posted by krizay:
0% chance he's a 9er

That's not very good odds

Originally posted by illinois9er:

Originally posted by krizay:
0% chance he's a 9er

That's not very good odds

He's being completely ridiculous. I think it's more like 0.003%.

If its one thing kyle wants in his qb, it's his ability to run a at 21mph who has no touch.