Trey Lance QB NDSU

Originally posted by Waterbear:
"Sports Info Solutions' proprietary quarterback metric that builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by isolating competitive throws (e.g., by excluding throwaways and only including accurate completions) and eliminating the effects of results outside his control (e.g., dropped passes, dropped interceptions).

Lance: 120.1

Fields: 104. 3.

Wilson: 69.9"

it's a real company who made this stat. Doesn't prove he's more accurate than Fields but Lance is certainly not inaccurate.

The data is only as good as the people producing it since at some point its going to be pretty subjective if its based on film study and if the person doing the scoring knows f**k all about what they're actually looking at then the data at best is going to be highly flawed. You have to trust that the company putting this stuff out knows what they're doing.

Personally I'm wary of a company that went out looking to hire "video scouts" on Reddit.

https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsanalytics/comments/b5t7ge/sports_info_solutions_2019_football_video_scout/

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by gold49digger:
Which is why I think Kyle is getting Beck to coach him up. I don't think he expects everything to click right away but I think he wants to see how receptive he is to his own type of coaching.

I don't think his accuracy is that bad either. I also don't expect a 19 yr old to be at his peak in regards to QB play...including accuracy. He's still a pup.

I'm still team Fields but I wouldn't be shocked or disappointed if it's Lance.

Yea - accuracy thing is def. talked about a lot bc he doesn't have many weaknesses. As you mentioned - he was 19 and he ONLY started playing QB at age 14. He didn't get any private coaching till this past year when his season was canceled unlike other players in this class who have been getting it for years.

For many - problem is his competition and that's a valid point. At the same time - he was offered to play RB, LB, Safety for some bigger schools but he refused and went to ND St. to play QB. Shows me that he has complete conviction and belief in himself and guess what - he was 120% correct. He is gonna be a high pick in NFL draft (hopefully no. 3) and if that happens - I have no doubt in my mind that he will be in conversation for best QB in the league in 3-4 years with Shanahan.

Few things that are being lost here I think..

1. So much is being said about the success he's had with a Jimmy G type quarter back. They have a Jimmy G type quarter back right now, so why are they using three first rounders to get rid of his prototype? Is this because they have zero faith in his ability to stay healthy, or is this a similar situation to McVay and Goff?

2. Starting quarterbacks are brought in to win games. Backup quarterbacks are brought in to not lose games. I don't think we can say who he has brought in to be a backup (Rosen, sudfeld, Mullens, Beathard, cousins) can serve as evidence as to what he wants leading this team.

Originally posted by IceMan1763:

Originally posted by MrNineSeven:
I could give two cents that everyone is praising him. Come on you see that every fkn year, and it's been like that forever. And these pundits are often way off and wrong vs being right.
I could care less about his arm strength and intelligence, who was his competition? Sorry I'm just not that impressed. Every year there's physically gifted athletes, that's doesn't mean they transition to the next level.
Last best/solid D2 QB the NFL has had was McNair. Flacco had a decent few years, Wentz... meh. Fitzmagic? Jimmy G? Romo?

just saying I think facing stiff competition goes a long way. It seems to workout better for other positions vs QB's. I'd think he's got a long ways to go in developing at the Pro level.

IMHO I just don't see him being this stud QB at the next level that all the media keep saying.

Well if you want to limit your team to only FBS players feel free, but I doubt any NFL team would hire you as a GM any time soon.

From a technical standpoint, Wentz has a super bowl ring and so does Flacco, while McNair is considered one of the best to not win a super bowl. Romo and Jimmy G are thought of as at least relatively good NFL players. So basically the worst is Fitz... who has been in the league how long now?

Best to completely avoid the FCS guys though because... level of competition.

Wentz has a SB ring thanks to Frank Reich and Nick Foles. Wentz had almost little impact on winning the SB. Romo... was really good at setting the bed... kinda like Jimmy
Flacco has a ring thanks to an all world D he played with.
I don't drink the Kool Aid like many Webzoners do and have so often.

Originally posted by 4ML:
Yea - accuracy thing is def. talked about a lot bc he doesn't have many weaknesses. As you mentioned - he was 19 and he ONLY started playing QB at age 14. He didn't get any private coaching till this past year when his season was canceled unlike other players in this class who have been getting it for years.

For many - problem is his competition and that's a valid point. At the same time - he was offered to play RB, LB, Safety for some bigger schools but he refused and went to ND St. to play QB. Shows me that he has complete conviction and belief in himself and guess what - he was 120% correct. He is gonna be a high pick in NFL draft (hopefully no. 3) and if that happens - I have no doubt in my mind that he will be in conversation for best QB in the league in 3-4 years with Shanahan.

The accuracy thing is talked about because its so crucial to the position in the NFL. Historically speaking, if you have shaky accuracy in college, the odds of it getting substantially better in the NFL are pretty slim. People are just on this "anyone can improve accuracy" kick because Josh Allen appears to be an exception to the rule. I said months ago that eventually one of these QB's is going to turn out to be a massive bust and then the NFL will find a new fad to follow. I don't know if Lance is that guy but its clear that he's nowhere near the level of a precision passer that Fields, Wilson and Jones are. Maybe that changes in the future but if you're taking him that early, you're better a whole lot on him joining Allen in fighting against the odds.

That 4th pick is going to be expensive...

Shanny is going to have so much fun with Lance - he can mold him into anything he wants. A blank canvas to paint a masterpiece. I can't wait - especially if Jimmy stinks it up, I can see Lance getting some early work this year.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by 4ML:
Yea - accuracy thing is def. talked about a lot bc he doesn't have many weaknesses. As you mentioned - he was 19 and he ONLY started playing QB at age 14. He didn't get any private coaching till this past year when his season was canceled unlike other players in this class who have been getting it for years.

For many - problem is his competition and that's a valid point. At the same time - he was offered to play RB, LB, Safety for some bigger schools but he refused and went to ND St. to play QB. Shows me that he has complete conviction and belief in himself and guess what - he was 120% correct. He is gonna be a high pick in NFL draft (hopefully no. 3) and if that happens - I have no doubt in my mind that he will be in conversation for best QB in the league in 3-4 years with Shanahan.

The accuracy thing is talked about because its so crucial to the position in the NFL. Historically speaking, if you have shaky accuracy in college, the odds of it getting substantially better in the NFL are pretty slim. People are just on this "anyone can improve accuracy" kick because Josh Allen appears to be an exception to the rule. I said months ago that eventually one of these QB's is going to turn out to be a massive bust and then the NFL will find a new fad to follow. I don't know if Lance is that guy but its clear that he's nowhere near the level of a precision passer that Fields, Wilson and Jones are. Maybe that changes in the future but if you're taking him that early, you're better a whole lot on him joining Allen in fighting against the odds.

But you have to remember that was his nineteen year old season. Most college qbs get more accurate as they age/develop. After watching tape on him it looks like a lot of the accuracy issues are footwork related. He came from a wishbone offense in highschool to a pro style offense in college so it stands to reason there'd be some things to work on. I get that we want a prospect with zero question marks but that doesn't exist in this draft past pick #1. I'll take my chances that Lance will get more accurate as he ages and develops before I take a chance on Fields thinking his decision making and processing will drastically improve. Lance is light years ahead of Justin in that regard imo.

Originally posted by LilLeeroy:
Have a link to this data anywhere?

The only things that are coming up when I search for this are the Ninersnation article that doesn't include a source and your previous posts about it.

There's no link because it's a book you have to pay for. I'm looking at it right now though as I do own it. FYI the book name is "SIS Football Rookie Handbook 2021".

The numbers specifically are Total "Under Pressure" IQR (SIS advanced passer rating metric) for their whole college career:
Jones = 131.3
Lance = 120.1
Fields = 104.3
Wilson = 69.9

Therein lies the trick though... Wilson sucked his 1st two years. Here is the 2020 seasons for everyone but Lance. Since I'm eliminating bad seasons for the other guys, I'm only using 2019 for Lance because that feels more fair (it doesn't change that much anyway since it was just one 2020 game):
Total "Under Pressure" IQR:
Jones 2020 = 136.5
Lance 2019 = 123.8
Wilson 2020 = 111.2
Fields 2020 = 93.4

I know this makes Jones look better, and it undoubtedly does, but I would like to point out before all the Mac truthers jump in that they still list Mac as the #5 QB in the book.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
The obvious cockleburr under the saddle here is 1 game in 2020. And the 2019 tape. Kyle, as we all know is using a yr old tape and 1 pro day to make a decision. It's tempting but i wonder if that is enough for him. Arm strength? Accuracy on long ball? Escapability? He's got it. But he is missing a bunch of tape kyle is using in his decision and time and time again, Kyle defers questions with, "I'm going to have to look at the tape.".

That is the only thing hurting Lance right now, but it is a BIG kyle item. Lance looks like NFL QB. But kyle has lots of tape on Wilson, Fields, and Mac. Sure be fascinating to be the fly on the wall and hear how the discussion of these 4 guys go. Would they even take Zack at #3, if fields goes to Jets /

That's a question in and of itself. But still, man how i would love to hear this discussion. Oh one thing? We will NEVER hear about what went into the decision....even when JL announces the pick ...we'll never know why. They just don't spill the beans, like every other HC/GM in the league.

I hate that...but i love the fact they NEVER tell. That is exactly what you want your HC and GM to not do. Of course if you're in DAL, big Jer always announces what he is doing, and why. Thank God we don't have that to worry about.

I am hoping that the thing he likes about CJ was he had multiple years of tape on him. Parcells has a minimum of starts in college requirement, I wonder if Kyle does too?

Originally posted by MrNineSeven:

Originally posted by IceMan1763:

Originally posted by MrNineSeven:
I could give two cents that everyone is praising him. Come on you see that every fkn year, and it's been like that forever. And these pundits are often way off and wrong vs being right.
I could care less about his arm strength and intelligence, who was his competition? Sorry I'm just not that impressed. Every year there's physically gifted athletes, that's doesn't mean they transition to the next level.
Last best/solid D2 QB the NFL has had was McNair. Flacco had a decent few years, Wentz... meh. Fitzmagic? Jimmy G? Romo?

just saying I think facing stiff competition goes a long way. It seems to workout better for other positions vs QB's. I'd think he's got a long ways to go in developing at the Pro level.

IMHO I just don't see him being this stud QB at the next level that all the media keep saying.

Well if you want to limit your team to only FBS players feel free, but I doubt any NFL team would hire you as a GM any time soon.

From a technical standpoint, Wentz has a super bowl ring and so does Flacco, while McNair is considered one of the best to not win a super bowl. Romo and Jimmy G are thought of as at least relatively good NFL players. So basically the worst is Fitz... who has been in the league how long now?

Best to completely avoid the FCS guys though because... level of competition.

Wentz has a SB ring thanks to Frank Reich and Nick Foles. Wentz had almost little impact on winning the SB. Romo... was really good at setting the bed... kinda like Jimmy
Flacco has a ring thanks to an all world D he played with.
I don't drink the Kool Aid like many Webzoners do and have so often.

Perhaps you forgot, but before Wentz got hurt, he was having a legitimate MVP type season and was being talked about as a perennial all pro type QB. Hasn't been the same since his injuries.

If thats the case then it´s Fields 100% percent.
edit : I was answering to flynhayn15 ´s post.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

.@danorlovsky7 has high hopes for Trey Lance 👀

"I think you'd win a lot of games WITH Mac Jones. With the right coaching, fixing the flaws, and taking the talent to another level, Trey Lance is the quarterback that you win games BECAUSE of." pic.twitter.com/quVsFl0t5r

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) April 19, 2021

Oh so now Orlovsky is credible again?

Cosell loves him some Lance to SF