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Trey Lance QB NDSU

Trey Lance QB NDSU

Originally posted by Cisco0623:
Originally posted by mayo49:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by Bloodless:
I went back to watch more games of Lance thinking maybe I overlooked something. Nope. Actually came away thinking he sucked even worse. This guy is so overrated. No way is he the pick. It has got to be either Mac or Fields. Lance is a project. Lance had one game where he threw for over 300 yards. 1 out of 17 games he threw for over 300 yards. Do you know how many games he threw for over 200 yards? 4 out of 17 games he threw for over 200 yards. Absolutely Terrible. This all in games where NDSU was the best team playing against garbage teams. People will point to his TD to Int ratio in 2019. But It must have been the luck of the Gods on his side because at times his accuracy was downright terrible. You guys actually want to spend 3 first-round picks, #3 overall on this Kid? It baffles me. It truly does.


I think you guys are overreacting - Lance is legit even though he hasn't got much playing time on his resume.

Explain?

It comes down to projection Vs confirmation. To scout you'd like to have both and to me that's why Fields is the choice. You have the confirmation of his current ability and a clear projection to success in the NFL.

For Trey it's mostly projection, but you can do something called Grading to Flash. You see something great, and you trust that you can get it out more consistently.

It's normally very risky as the question is, well if he flashed the ability why isn't it consistent?

The easier you can answer that question the more confidence you can have in the flashes.

When you're watching a 19 year old kid with no previous QB coaching it's pretty easy to answer why he wasn't consistent.
[ Edited by 49erBigMac on Apr 20, 2021 at 6:47 AM ]
Originally posted by a49erfan77:
I can't get excited about a guy who played in 19 games and had as many or more rushes than completions in 10 of them.

Here, just released and he rushed for 23 yards in this game:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKhNnLiTSdU&ab_channel=TheQBSchool

Or you can do more box score scouting... your choice.
Originally posted by kansasninerfan:
Originally posted by Cisco0623:
Did he hit anyone in stride from what we saw?

that is actually what I came to this thread to see. If people noticed what I noticed. He did leave a few balls shorter than I would have liked to see. The long snag over the middle. WR had 2 hands away from the body where he waited for the beautifully thrown ball to come down so he could snag it. Just a bit short. He did have a couple others outside that were very close to in stride. Maybe they were backup WRs he hadn't worked with? Justin Fields was throwing to Freshman he hadn't worked with in his 2nd pro day and absolutely nailing them in stride.

I like Lance. I won't be mad if he is the pick. But to me, the only thing he MIGHT do better than Fields is get rid of the ball a little faster and work through his reads. And that is debatable and I believe can be taught in an NFL system. I am more sure than ever the pick has to be Fields.

I don't have an issue with ball placement at pro days, especially when you're not throwing to your main WRs. I just think people need to keep the same energy for each prospect.

End of the day I sure hope we don't use pro days to make our decision at #3 unless we actually have two or more guys with the same grade and need something to put one over the top.

Lance for me personally cannot answer the concerns I have for him at a pro day. However that can be said for Mac Jones or even Justin Fields.

My concerns for the 3 QBs

Justin Fields:
Can he stop himself from playing hero ball? Can he learn to protect himself when running better, can he throw the ball away when plays aren't there to be made?
- Impossible to tell but I believe the NFL helps people grow from those things very quickly. There is no reason to fluff up your stats for the Heisman run or blow teams away to impress voters to get you into the playoffs. You play to win games. I think he can easily address this concern and live to play another day.

Can he learn to play better vs pressure, specifically can he identify the blitz and get the ball out quickly either as a throw away or throw to his blitz beater if available on that play.
- This is scheme/coaching related to me. I've heard nothing about Fields which tells me he cannot come in and grow as a QB mentally and improve reading defenses to identify the blitz and playing within the system to hurt teams looking to go blitz happy. This is also trust in Kyle. Harder to play vs blitz/pressure when your offense relies on option routes by the WRs and you're frequently looking to hit things deep. We know Kyle loves him playaction and the core of his offense isn't going deep.

Can he process quicker post snap?
- This is similar to the issue above and I think this is another coaching/developmental aspect that I have no reason to think he cannot handle very well. We've seen him go through his reads to make big plays. We've seen him get the ball out quick on plays that were open. We've seen him learn from mistakes and not make them again. There are enough examples of him doing those things where I feel confident he'll develop and improve at them on amore consistent basis with NFL coaching/time.

Trey Lance:
Can he improve his accuracy on longer throws?
- Possible, we know he's working on his mechanics but until you see it on the field with rushers coming at you it's hard to feel super confident about it. For every Josh Allen there are countless of QBs whose accuracy never improved enough once hitting the NFL

Will the jump from FCS to NFL impact him?
- Impossible to tell. We obviously have the Carson Wentz comparison, Joe Flacco and others who have made the jump and played very well. I can't think of anyone who had as few pass attempts to Lance and made the jump to be drafted that high but doesn't mean he can't but it's still a concern that cannot be answered without seeing it happen. It also leads to another concern

Will his running style translate to the NFL?
- Impossible to tell but he runs physical. We see him running over and bouncing off guys frequently. For a guy whose bread and butter really was the run if he plays the same way he played at NDSU can he take a beating of the NFL? Those guys aren't going to be as easy to bounce off of.

Will he avoid running as much in the NFL?
- Impossible to tell but overall Lance looked to run when things broke down more often and with good reason, because he could. I'm pretty sure he'll look to run less because he'd take more of a beating but it's still a habit he'll have to work on.

Mac Jones concerns

How will he do if he has to bring a team back down in the 4th quarter?
-Impossible to tell. We simply don't have the visibility of him doing it. I believe there is only one game where we come even close of him doing it is Auburn in 2019 where Bama f'd up the game tying FG late. He had some moments to get excited about like actually pickign up a 4th and long with his legs! But it was also a game where he threw 2 pick 6s and still failed to get the go ahead score with 1st and goal situation. We can't make the assumption that he can't do it...but it's certainly hard to say he can with any confidence given you just so rarely saw him play with a deficit.

How will he do if he's ever hit repeatedly in a game?
- Impossible to tell but this is the biggest question for pocket passers. We know first hand that getting to them is easier. How many pocket passers have been ruined so to speak by getting hit over and over again and starting to see ghosts, starting to feel pressure that's not there? We saw it first hand with Jimmy. Some guys can take a beating and keep on ticking. However we've never seen Mac deal with that to know how he'll react.

How will his lack of arm strength impact his abilities in the NFL?
- Is he Tom Brady? Or is he Kirk Cousins? Or is he AJ McCarron? There's no question the kid is very accurate, he threw a damn good deep ball at Bama. Question becomes as windows get smaller and defenders get faster and you're not playing with the best team in the league where your guys are just that much better than the rest will his arm become an issue?
  • mayo49
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Originally posted by IceMan1763:
Originally posted by a49erfan77:
I can't get excited about a guy who played in 19 games and had as many or more rushes than completions in 10 of them.

Here, just released and he rushed for 23 yards in this game:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKhNnLiTSdU&ab_channel=TheQBSchool

Or you can do more box score scouting... your choice.

Lol, IceMan laying it out.
Originally posted by IceMan1763:
Originally posted by a49erfan77:
I can't get excited about a guy who played in 19 games and had as many or more rushes than completions in 10 of them.

Here, just released and he rushed for 23 yards in this game:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKhNnLiTSdU&ab_channel=TheQBSchool

Or you can do more box score scouting... your choice.

He threw the ball 23 times in that game vs a team that finished near the bottom of their conference.

EDIT: NDSU also ran 41 times for 295 yards in that game.
[ Edited by a49erfan77 on Apr 20, 2021 at 6:57 AM ]
Originally posted by a49erfan77:
He threw the ball 23 times in that game vs a team that finished near the bottom of their conference.

EDIT: NDSU also ran 41 times for 295 yards in that game.

Look if you don't like him nothing will convince you otherwise. I'm here to offer alternative points of view, but I can't make you drink them.
Originally posted by IceMan1763:
Originally posted by a49erfan77:
He threw the ball 23 times in that game vs a team that finished near the bottom of their conference.

EDIT: NDSU also ran 41 times for 295 yards in that game.

Look if you don't like him nothing will convince you otherwise. I'm here to offer alternative points of view, but I can't make you drink them.

It's not about not liking him, it's about the chances that he busts being higher than probably any other QB ranked in the top 5-7. I can't get excited about taking him 3rd overall and pinning the future on his huge arm that has never made a throw against a team with an NFL caliber defender on it and has fewer than 300 throws at the collegiate level.
Originally posted by a49erfan77:
It's not about not liking him, it's about the chances that he busts being higher than probably any other QB ranked in the top 5-7. I can't get excited about taking him 3rd overall and pinning the future on his huge arm that has never made a throw against a team with an NFL caliber defender on it and has fewer than 300 throws at the collegiate level.

Ok, what, specifically, makes him the highest chance to bust in the modern NFL of all of the draftable (at least in early rounds) QBs?

Also, how many NFL caliber defenders did Zach Wilson face last season? Did Mac Jones facing a few really matter when he was behind a historically good line with historically good weapons?

I think the question that should be asked is this: "Can they make NFL caliber throws?" rather than "Have they faced NFL caliber competition?". The number of throws seems much less concerning to me when you realize that Mac Jones, for example, threw the ball 402 times as a starter. That's it. 100 more throws unless you're counting mop up duty. Fields has double the throws primarily because he played two seasons whereas Lance played one (because the fall football season for his team was cancelled). Fields threw the ball 352 times in 2019 compared to Lance's 287 throws. Is the difference really that big??

Edit: BTW, the link I provided shows exactly that. Lance making NFL caliber throws. The videos also show him making mistakes, just like all the rest of the prospects. Field's issues with decision making become much more apparent when you're seeing him miss reads on film rather than reading his box score.
[ Edited by IceMan1763 on Apr 20, 2021 at 7:27 AM ]
  • fan49
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 6,257
Originally posted by genus49:
I don't have an issue with ball placement at pro days, especially when you're not throwing to your main WRs. I just think people need to keep the same energy for each prospect.

End of the day I sure hope we don't use pro days to make our decision at #3 unless we actually have two or more guys with the same grade and need something to put one over the top.

Lance for me personally cannot answer the concerns I have for him at a pro day. However that can be said for Mac Jones or even Justin Fields.

My concerns for the 3 QBs

Justin Fields:
Can he stop himself from playing hero ball? Can he learn to protect himself when running better, can he throw the ball away when plays aren't there to be made?
- Impossible to tell but I believe the NFL helps people grow from those things very quickly. There is no reason to fluff up your stats for the Heisman run or blow teams away to impress voters to get you into the playoffs. You play to win games. I think he can easily address this concern and live to play another day.

Can he learn to play better vs pressure, specifically can he identify the blitz and get the ball out quickly either as a throw away or throw to his blitz beater if available on that play.
- This is scheme/coaching related to me. I've heard nothing about Fields which tells me he cannot come in and grow as a QB mentally and improve reading defenses to identify the blitz and playing within the system to hurt teams looking to go blitz happy. This is also trust in Kyle. Harder to play vs blitz/pressure when your offense relies on option routes by the WRs and you're frequently looking to hit things deep. We know Kyle loves him playaction and the core of his offense isn't going deep.

Can he process quicker post snap?
- This is similar to the issue above and I think this is another coaching/developmental aspect that I have no reason to think he cannot handle very well. We've seen him go through his reads to make big plays. We've seen him get the ball out quick on plays that were open. We've seen him learn from mistakes and not make them again. There are enough examples of him doing those things where I feel confident he'll develop and improve at them on amore consistent basis with NFL coaching/time.

Trey Lance:
Can he improve his accuracy on longer throws?
- Possible, we know he's working on his mechanics but until you see it on the field with rushers coming at you it's hard to feel super confident about it. For every Josh Allen there are countless of QBs whose accuracy never improved enough once hitting the NFL

Will the jump from FCS to NFL impact him?
- Impossible to tell. We obviously have the Carson Wentz comparison, Joe Flacco and others who have made the jump and played very well. I can't think of anyone who had as few pass attempts to Lance and made the jump to be drafted that high but doesn't mean he can't but it's still a concern that cannot be answered without seeing it happen. It also leads to another concern

Will his running style translate to the NFL?
- Impossible to tell but he runs physical. We see him running over and bouncing off guys frequently. For a guy whose bread and butter really was the run if he plays the same way he played at NDSU can he take a beating of the NFL? Those guys aren't going to be as easy to bounce off of.

Will he avoid running as much in the NFL?
- Impossible to tell but overall Lance looked to run when things broke down more often and with good reason, because he could. I'm pretty sure he'll look to run less because he'd take more of a beating but it's still a habit he'll have to work on.

Mac Jones concerns

How will he do if he has to bring a team back down in the 4th quarter?
-Impossible to tell. We simply don't have the visibility of him doing it. I believe there is only one game where we come even close of him doing it is Auburn in 2019 where Bama f'd up the game tying FG late. He had some moments to get excited about like actually pickign up a 4th and long with his legs! But it was also a game where he threw 2 pick 6s and still failed to get the go ahead score with 1st and goal situation. We can't make the assumption that he can't do it...but it's certainly hard to say he can with any confidence given you just so rarely saw him play with a deficit.

How will he do if he's ever hit repeatedly in a game?
- Impossible to tell but this is the biggest question for pocket passers. We know first hand that getting to them is easier. How many pocket passers have been ruined so to speak by getting hit over and over again and starting to see ghosts, starting to feel pressure that's not there? We saw it first hand with Jimmy. Some guys can take a beating and keep on ticking. However we've never seen Mac deal with that to know how he'll react.

How will his lack of arm strength impact his abilities in the NFL?
- Is he Tom Brady? Or is he Kirk Cousins? Or is he AJ McCarron? There's no question the kid is very accurate, he threw a damn good deep ball at Bama. Question becomes as windows get smaller and defenders get faster and you're not playing with the best team in the league where your guys are just that much better than the rest will his arm become an issue?

Is it a benefit when you're throwing to receivers that are freshman, you have to teach them routes? And you look more accurate than another quarterback in your pro day? My point is tray Lance had an NFL wr, Justin had freshman that he's never worked with. Should mean something especially or one perform better than the other foot less
Originally posted by IceMan1763:
Ok, what, specifically, makes him the highest chance to bust in the modern NFL of all of the draftable (at least in early rounds) QBs?

Also, how many NFL caliber defenders did Zach Wilson face last season? Did Mac Jones facing a few really matter when he was behind a historically good line with historically good weapons?

I think the question that should be asked is this: "Can they make NFL caliber throws?" rather than "Have they faced NFL caliber competition?". The number of throws seems much less concerning to me when you realize that Mac Jones, for example, threw the ball 402 times as a starter. That's it. 100 more throws unless you're counting mop up duty. Fields has double the throws primarily because he played two seasons whereas Lance played one (because the fall football season for his team was cancelled). Fields threw the ball 352 times in 2019 compared to Lance's 287 throws. Is the difference really that big??

Edit: BTW, the link I provided shows exactly that. Lance making NFL caliber throws. The videos also show him making mistakes, just like all the rest of the prospects. Field's issues with decision making become much more apparent when you're seeing him miss reads on film rather than reading his box score.

Fields threw the ball 352 times in 14 games vs Lance throwing 287 times in 16 games. Not to mention the fact that Fields only threw 20 total passes in the 4th quarter in regular season games (43 for the entire year) in 2019 and didn't even play the 2nd half in two of those games.

Look at 2020 for Fields. He played in 8 games and only threw 62 fewer passes than Lance did in an entire 16 game season.

You really want to put the future of a franchise on the arm of a guy whose college team didn't even trust his arm enough to rely on vs guys who are barely better than High School level talent?

I'd rather not take that chance with someone like Fields available.
[ Edited by a49erfan77 on Apr 20, 2021 at 8:02 AM ]
Originally posted by mayo49:
Yates says the Lance workout will not sway their decision and he still thinks the Niners will take Jones at #3.

I don't buy.

Jones may very well end up being the guy but the 9ers put too much effort into Lance's pro day for their interest to be superficial.
I see Jones going mid to late first and Lance going in the second round. No way a team uses a #1 on a 19 year-old QB that's only played one college season on a team that runs the ball in D2.
Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Fields threw the ball 352 times in 14 games vs Lance throwing 287 times in 16 games. Not to mention the fact that Fields only threw 20 total passes in the 4th quarter in regular season games (43 for the entire year) in 2019 and didn't even play the 2nd half in two of those games.

Look at 2020 for Fields. He played in 8 games and only threw 62 fewer passes than Lance did in an entire 16 game season.

You really want to put the future of a franchise on the arm of a guy whose college team didn't even trust his arm enough to rely on vs guys who are barely better than High School level talent?

I'd rather not take that chance with someone like Fields available.

Uhhh...that is not true. They actually trusted him more than any other QB in this draft. They let him call audibles and let him run the entire offense himself at LOS.
Originally posted by Joecool:
I see Jones going mid to late first and Lance going in the second round. No way a team uses a #1 on a 19 year-old QB that's only played one college season on a team that runs the ball in D2.

lol I'd bet you $100 that Lance will get drafted in 1st round.
Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Fields threw the ball 352 times in 14 games vs Lance throwing 287 times in 16 games. Not to mention the fact that Fields only threw 20 total passes in the 4th quarter in regular season games (43 for the entire year) in 2019 and didn't even play the 2nd half in two of those games.

Look at 2020 for Fields. He played in 8 games and only threw 62 fewer passes than Lance did in an entire 16 game season.

You really want to put the future of a franchise on the arm of a guy whose college team didn't even trust his arm enough to rely on vs guys who are barely better than High School level talent?

I'd rather not take that chance with someone like Fields available.

Ok look at what you're saying, seriously. In the first sentence you basically state that Ohio State was steamrolling a lot of their competition, which reduced Fields's number of passing attempts. In what universe does that not also apply to NDSU? You're also trying to compare two completely different styles of offense, which will absolutely affect the number of passing attempts. Ohio State frequently has 1 or 2 more receiving options and spreads the field, so even in games where they are up they tend to keep throwing the ball. Fields had 45 attempts in the National Championship which they won by 4 touchdowns. NDSU, on the other hand, is a run first pro style offense that isn't going to pass as much and never has.

Saying NDSU, which has a LONG history of using this type of playstyle going back at least a decade (and winning a championship doing it almost every year), was doing it because they didn't trust Lance's arm is perhaps one of the worst takes I've seen in everything I've read about these prospects. No offense meant.

You're not taking a chance on a guy whose team didn't trust him to throw, you're taking a chance on a prospect with all of the necessary physical and mental traits to be successful and has demonstrated as much on the field for anyone willing to look past the box scores.
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