Trey Lance QB NDSU

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
Come on NY, you know that Allbright is shady and has an agenda.

There's more than enough to bury Mac with, I don't think character needs to be one. By all accounts he's a great kid.

He most certainly is not shady at all...dude is as objective as it comes with NFL insiders.

what agenda does he even have with Mac? He's heard reports from teams, Biderman of the sac bee and tony pauline have said this much as well...the fact that none are blasting what this kid has said/done, shows they're not trying to be shady or undermining...let the teams do their homework.

You or I know nothing about this kid. When multiple people bring up stuff then we should have a right to question it.

The timing of his post was shady and shows an agenda, probably click bait, but could be worse.

We never truly know about character (neither do the teams sometimes) but every single person or team that have worked with him have raved about him.

His WR's, Jim Nagy, his coaches. I'll trust that more than a few possibly questionable deleted tweets and a photo he was tagged in when he was 12.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
The timing of his post was shady and shows an agenda, probably click bait, but could be worse.

We never truly know about character (neither do the teams sometimes) but every single person or team that have worked with him have raved about him.

His WR's, Jim Nagy, his coaches. I'll trust that more than a few possibly questionable deleted tweets and a photo he was tagged in when he was 12.

The tweet was readily available to anyone with a Twitter account, all you had to do was go to his sister's page. Biderman said he deleted a massive amount of tweets just from this past yr as well.

Ben wasn't the only one that retweeted that tweet either. Bleacher report did as well.

I'm not saying he's Foster, but his teammates at Bama LOVED him too. teammates loved zeke Elliot all the same...his coaches praised the s**t out of him...I could careless what Jim Nagy says, all he cares about is pumping up his senior Bowl guys. Nagy hasn't said one bad thing about anyone that played in the Senior Bowl.

look this is a job interview you have a kid that shouldn't even been in discussion just based on play overall at 3, who had a DUI and a racist undertone photo (and who knows what else), and according to Rap not a single team has him in their top 3 QB rankings... plus you have 2 other very very good prospects? I mean what are we doing here?

Originally posted by flynhayn15:
1. I don't know why you are bringing up Wentz, he was gone before Lance got there.

2. I was merely pointing out the fact that those most of fields "shortcomings" can be applied to the other QBs.

3. Looking at the helmet is yet another thing that only seems to affect Fields draft status.

1) The point is that young true freshman QBs don't get inserted for proven, experienced, championship winnings QBs no matter how talented they might appear. At least at NDSU they don't.
2) Well then I think I actually strengthened your point in that regard. I agree with you that Fields not winning the job over Fromm shouldn't be a big concern.
3) I'm not sure how playing for Ohio State has hurt Fields. Maybe you mean extra scrutiny because he's at such a high profile place? There might be some truth behind that, but with the amount of media coverage these days I feel like all of the guys get picked at pretty harshly. The exceptions might be TLaw and Wilson, but I think it's because they're considered "locks" at their draft positions more than anything else.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
The timing of his post was shady and shows an agenda, probably click bait, but could be worse.

We never truly know about character (neither do the teams sometimes) but every single person or team that have worked with him have raved about him.

His WR's, Jim Nagy, his coaches. I'll trust that more than a few possibly questionable deleted tweets and a photo he was tagged in when he was 12.

The tweet was readily available to anyone with a Twitter account, all you had to do was go to his sister's page. Biderman said he deleted a massive amount of tweets just from this past yr as well.

Ben wasn't the only one that retweeted that tweet either. Bleacher report did as well.

I'm not saying he's Foster, but his teammates at Bama LOVED him too. teammates loved zeke Elliot all the same...his coaches praised the s**t out of him...I could careless what Jim Nagy says, all he cares about is pumping up his senior Bowl guys. Nagy hasn't said one bad thing about anyone that played in the Senior Bowl.

look this is a job interview you have a kid that shouldn't even been in discussion just based on play overall at 3, who had a DUI and a racist undertone photo (and who knows what else), and according to Rap not a single team has him in their top 3 QB rankings... plus you have 2 other very very good prospects? I mean what are we doing here?

As I said, there are more than enough questions over his play Vs the other options.

We don't need to go with the unknown that is his character.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
The timing of his post was shady and shows an agenda, probably click bait, but could be worse.

We never truly know about character (neither do the teams sometimes) but every single person or team that have worked with him have raved about him.

His WR's, Jim Nagy, his coaches. I'll trust that more than a few possibly questionable deleted tweets and a photo he was tagged in when he was 12.

The tweet was readily available to anyone with a Twitter account, all you had to do was go to his sister's page. Biderman said he deleted a massive amount of tweets just from this past yr as well.

Ben wasn't the only one that retweeted that tweet either. Bleacher report did as well.

I'm not saying he's Foster, but his teammates at Bama LOVED him too. teammates loved zeke Elliot all the same...his coaches praised the s**t out of him...I could careless what Jim Nagy says, all he cares about is pumping up his senior Bowl guys. Nagy hasn't said one bad thing about anyone that played in the Senior Bowl.

look this is a job interview you have a kid that shouldn't even been in discussion just based on play overall at 3, who had a DUI and a racist undertone photo (and who knows what else), and according to Rap not a single team has him in their top 3 QB rankings... plus you have 2 other very very good prospects? I mean what are we doing here?

As I said, there are more than enough questions over his play Vs the other options.

We don't need to go with the unknown that is his character.

But it's still there and you better believe teams are doing their homework. After what we've been through the last ten years you think Jed doesn't want every single
stone turned over? 3 firsts and a third...... yeah they will make sure.

This is why I don't understand how easily people brush off Jones DUI etc. it's imperative to look into.

Most of us agree they probably have these guys close in grade so all that off the field stuff is very relevant. Lance has zero concerns like this.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
As I said, there are more than enough questions over his play Vs the other options.

We don't need to go with the unknown that is his character.

well there are a couple knowns with his character and it's not all rainbows and unicorns

Im convinced it's Lance.

At first I couldn't imagine Kyle taking anyone with his accuracy issues, but then I remembered that Kyle is confident (arrogant?) enough to think he can fix that. (See: Rosen, Josh)

& Lance's strengths match up with the qualities Kyle values most: smarts, pocket awareness/composure, ability to throw on the run, toughness, ability to limit turnovers/negative plays.

And then you throw in his height, weight, speed, running ability and arm strength goodies as the cherry on top.

I like Fields better as a prospect, but when I watch his film I see a QB who takes more risks than Lance and often leaves the pocket when he doesn't have to. I think this is an asset in certain schemes - hi Seattle - but I think it would drive Kyle nuts.

Originally posted by kbarlows1000ydseason:
Im convinced it's Lance.

At first I couldn't imagine Kyle taking anyone with his accuracy issues, but then I remembered that Kyle is confident (arrogant?) enough to think he can fix that. (See: Rosen, Josh)

& Lance's strengths match up with the qualities Kyle values most: smarts, pocket awareness/composure, ability to throw on the run, toughness, ability to limit turnovers/negative plays.

And then you throw in his height, weight, speed, running ability and arm strength goodies as the cherry on top.

I like Fields better as a prospect, but when I watch his film I see a QB who often leaves the pocket when he doesn't have to, and I think that would drive Kyle nuts.

Very good points. Add in that he seems to have been likely to take Josh Allen, who was extremely inaccurate in college, if he had been in the 2017 draft.

Originally posted by kbarlows1000ydseason:

At first I couldn't imagine Kyle taking anyone with his accuracy issues, but then I remembered that Kyle is confident (arrogant?) enough to think he can fix that. (See: Rosen, Josh)

The thing is, Lance's accuracy can be inconsistent, no doubt. However, it's a HIGHLY overblown issue.

I'll do Fields 2020 vs. Lance 2019 but if I did their whole college careers these numbers change very little, FYI.

From SIS Football Rookie Handbook 2021:
Advanced Passing Metrics - On Target%:
Lance 2019: 78%
Fields 2020: 75%

Advanced Passing Metrics - Catchable%:
Fields 2020: 87%
Lance 2019: 85%

Context is important. Advanced metrics actually make the effort to contextualize the passes. A great example of why this is important can be seen with Felipe Franks this year. Although it was just 71 attempts in 2019 (I don't think that is the relevant part of this example), he completed 76.1% of those passes. Awesome, right? So why did his accuracy fall off so badly in 2020? I mean he did have more attempts at 238, but still his drop to 68.5% is alarming, no? Without any context one might assume he struggled with accuracy in 2020. Advanced metrics, on the other hand, tell a VERY different story.

The real story of his dropping completion % is the fact that his receivers dropped 1 pass in 2019 versus 12 in 2020. They also were able to haul in more "off-target" but still catchable throws in 2019 versus 2020. Herein lies the beauty of looking at advanced metrics, which don't look at the end result of the play, but just look at the quality of the throw. With advanced passing metrics, we see that Franks actually improved as a passer from 2019 to 2020, coming in 2nd to only Mac Jones in both On Target% and Catchable%. Context matters.

Originally posted by IceMan1763:
The thing is, Lance's accuracy can be inconsistent, no doubt. However, it's a HIGHLY overblown issue.

I'll do Fields 2020 vs. Lance 2019 but if I did their whole college careers these numbers change very little, FYI.

From SIS Football Rookie Handbook 2021:
Advanced Passing Metrics - On Target%:
Lance 2019: 78%
Fields 2020: 75%

Advanced Passing Metrics - Catchable%:
Fields 2020: 87%
Lance 2019: 85%

Context is important. Advanced metrics actually make the effort to contextualize the passes. A great example of why this is important can be seen with Felipe Franks this year. Although it was just 71 attempts in 2019 (I don't think that is the relevant part of this example), he completed 76.1% of those passes. Awesome, right? So why did his accuracy fall off so badly in 2020? I mean he did have more attempts at 238, but still his drop to 68.5% is alarming, no? Without any context one might assume he struggled with accuracy in 2020. Advanced metrics, on the other hand, tell a VERY different story.

The real story of his dropping completion % is the fact that his receivers dropped 1 pass in 2019 versus 12 in 2020. They also were able to haul in more "off-target" but still catchable throws in 2019 versus 2020. Herein lies the beauty of looking at advanced metrics, which don't look at the end result of the play, but just look at the quality of the throw. With advanced passing metrics, we see that Franks actually improved as a passer from 2019 to 2020, coming in 2nd to only Mac Jones in both On Target% and Catchable%. Context matters.

These advanced metrics paint him as much less accurate than Fields in most categories:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Tp_UPHgVsRMJpXAtyyvKVrLRfdeNey-OZS0iDPu2f5E/edit#gid=854813689

Trey Lance will be our Pat Mahones!
Justin Fields would be DeShawn Watson!
Mac Jones would be Mitch Tribisky 2.0 passing on the first two!

Originally posted by IceMan1763:
The thing is, Lance's accuracy can be inconsistent, no doubt. However, it's a HIGHLY overblown issue.

I'll do Fields 2020 vs. Lance 2019 but if I did their whole college careers these numbers change very little, FYI.

From SIS Football Rookie Handbook 2021:
Advanced Passing Metrics - On Target%:
Lance 2019: 78%
Fields 2020: 75%

Advanced Passing Metrics - Catchable%:
Fields 2020: 87%
Lance 2019: 85%

Context is important. Advanced metrics actually make the effort to contextualize the passes. A great example of why this is important can be seen with Felipe Franks this year. Although it was just 71 attempts in 2019 (I don't think that is the relevant part of this example), he completed 76.1% of those passes. Awesome, right? So why did his accuracy fall off so badly in 2020? I mean he did have more attempts at 238, but still his drop to 68.5% is alarming, no? Without any context one might assume he struggled with accuracy in 2020. Advanced metrics, on the other hand, tell a VERY different story.

The real story of his dropping completion % is the fact that his receivers dropped 1 pass in 2019 versus 12 in 2020. They also were able to haul in more "off-target" but still catchable throws in 2019 versus 2020. Herein lies the beauty of looking at advanced metrics, which don't look at the end result of the play, but just look at the quality of the throw. With advanced passing metrics, we see that Franks actually improved as a passer from 2019 to 2020, coming in 2nd to only Mac Jones in both On Target% and Catchable%. Context matters.

This is good to know! In the games I watched he was always good for at least one low/dirt ball, so I assumed it pointed to a larger issue. Love it when stats tell a more complete story

Originally posted by CoachPhoenix:
Trey Lance will be our Pat Mahones!
Justin Fields would be DeShawn Watson!
Mac Jones would be Mitch Tribisky 2.0 passing on the first two!

Trubisky is more athletic

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
These advanced metrics paint him as much less accurate than Fields in most categories:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Tp_UPHgVsRMJpXAtyyvKVrLRfdeNey-OZS0iDPu2f5E/edit#gid=854813689

Well, there is more than one source of advanced metrics and charting/advanced metrics in general can introduce subjectivity. The SIS guys I consider pros though... this is their business and livelihood. No offense, but I've seen that one and the source seems significantly less established to me.

Originally posted by IceMan1763:

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
These advanced metrics paint him as much less accurate than Fields in most categories:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Tp_UPHgVsRMJpXAtyyvKVrLRfdeNey-OZS0iDPu2f5E/edit#gid=854813689

Well, there is more than one source of advanced metrics and charting/advanced metrics in general can introduce subjectivity. The SIS guys I consider pros though... this is their business and livelihood. No offense, but I've seen that one and the source seems significantly less established to me.

PFF also charts his accuracy/location as far below the other top prospects.

They have Fields at 57% accurate/18% uncatchable and Lance at 47% accurate/24% uncatchable.z

In his lone 2020 game, they had him at 29% accurate on his 30 passes.