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Trey Lance QB NDSU

Trey Lance QB NDSU

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by Sunshine:
Number of pass attempts is a terrible way to judge a QBs experience/readiness.


Disagree. Its one thing if a guy has two years of starting experience and someone is arguing that they should have three.


Lance as a rookie would have the fewest college pass attempts of any QB drafted earlier than the 6th round in the past 20 years and likely far longer than that.




To me that is a QB that has zero business starting in the NFL as a rookie. Throwing them out there when they have that precious little experience in actually throwing the football is the express lane to ruining a young QB.


There's no way you can argue that a guy with barely a year as a starter in the FCS is NFL ready Day 1. Every rookie QB has a significant learning curve. Lance's will be far steeper than most.

Just about any QB will benefit from sitting on the bench for a season. Possibly Lance more than others. I do however think it's a bit silly to equate passing attempts to NFL readiness without looking at what QBs are being asked to do in their systems.

Lance is playing under center, has really advanced footwork on his drops, is going through progression reads and is setting protections at the LOS. He's going to take his lumps as NFL DCs throw curveballs at him but I'd rather have a guy who has 250 pass attempts doing exactly what he's going to be asked to do in the NFL than a guy who has 1000 passes out of the shotgun, with no game experience dropping back or reading defenses.

This isn't directly relevant but this all makes me think of what Kyle says about evaluating college WRs. Guys will have 200 catches in their college career but only a handful of plays where you see them doing what they'll be asked to do in the pros. It's about quality reps, not quantity.
[ Edited by Sunshine on Dec 27, 2020 at 12:02 AM ]
  • NM16
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I think Lance will be there when we pick. Dont know if we pull the trigger but that'll be nice
Originally posted by NM16:
I think Lance will be there when we pick. Dont know if we pull the trigger but that'll be nice

It's really scary with this kid, his play time situation is almost like Tribusky at UNC and Gabbert at Mizzou where both showed skills and talent but it was just NOT enough playing time..
Originally posted by NM16:
I think Lance will be there when we pick. Dont know if we pull the trigger but that'll be nice

If Lance is there at our pick I think it would be a great idea to draft him. Would love to see Jimmy take a paycut and let Lance develop behind him.

Don't let him rush and have Kyle work with him on the mechanics and key aspects of playing QB like McCarthy did with Rodgers.
Originally posted by Sunshine:
Just about any QB will benefit from sitting on the bench for a season. Possibly Lance more than others. I do however think it's a bit silly to equate passing attempts to NFL readiness without looking at what QBs are being asked to do in their systems.

Lance is playing under center, has really advanced footwork on his drops, is going through progression reads and is setting protections at the LOS. He's going to take his lumps as NFL DCs throw curveballs at him but I'd rather have a guy who has 250 pass attempts doing exactly what he's going to be asked to do in the NFL than a guy who has 1000 passes out of the shotgun, with no game experience dropping back or reading defenses.

This isn't directly relevant but this all makes me think of what Kyle says about evaluating college WRs. Guys will have 200 catches in their college career but only a handful of plays where you see them doing what they'll be asked to do in the pros. It's about quality reps, not quantity.

Yes but some QB's will benefit far more. Virtually every QB that NDSU has had for the past decade has played really well. When you adjust for level of competition, that team is like Bama+Georgia combined. They simply outclass all their opponents in terms of talent which is why they've won 9 of the last 10 FCS championships. They haven't lost a single game since 2017. They are beyond stacked.

Under those conditions, Lance had success, but so did Easton Stick, Carson Wentz and Brock Jensen. I think Lance has a higher upside than any of them but you're talking about a freshman QB that still has many deficiencies in his game, still too quick to lock on to his first read or take off if its not there, still hit or miss when it comes to accuracy, still gets happy feet when pressured.

Rarely was he under fire though, only once has he had to bring his team back from a deficit and unlike a guy like Mitch Trubisky who also had limited stats, Lance was a starter as a freshman, had basically zero playing time as a sophomore and will now be entering the NFL whereas Trubisky got to sit for three years and immerse himself in the NC offense before he became a starter and then went off to the NFL.

Lance is going to be one of the most raw QB prospect's we've ever seen as a potential first rounder. He's got a ton of talent and all the upside but the reality is that he's further from a finished product than pretty much any other QB in this draft. A team will need to be patient with him and if they just throw him out there and tell him to sink or swim, he's far more likely to sink.
Originally posted by genus49:
If Lance is there at our pick I think it would be a great idea to draft him. Would love to see Jimmy take a paycut and let Lance develop behind him.

Don't let him rush and have Kyle work with him on the mechanics and key aspects of playing QB like McCarthy did with Rodgers.

I'm all for it if the plan is to be patient with him and develop him slowly. He can be great under the right circumstances but if you put him out there before he's ready and he winds up feeling overwhelmed, struggling to read defenses and loses his confidence, you're more likely to get a bust than a dynamic, game-changing quarterback.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by Sunshine:
Just about any QB will benefit from sitting on the bench for a season. Possibly Lance more than others. I do however think it's a bit silly to equate passing attempts to NFL readiness without looking at what QBs are being asked to do in their systems.

Lance is playing under center, has really advanced footwork on his drops, is going through progression reads and is setting protections at the LOS. He's going to take his lumps as NFL DCs throw curveballs at him but I'd rather have a guy who has 250 pass attempts doing exactly what he's going to be asked to do in the NFL than a guy who has 1000 passes out of the shotgun, with no game experience dropping back or reading defenses.

This isn't directly relevant but this all makes me think of what Kyle says about evaluating college WRs. Guys will have 200 catches in their college career but only a handful of plays where you see them doing what they'll be asked to do in the pros. It's about quality reps, not quantity.

Yes but some QB's will benefit far more. Virtually every QB that NDSU has had for the past decade has played really well. When you adjust for level of competition, that team is like Bama+Georgia combined. They simply outclass all their opponents in terms of talent which is why they've won 9 of the last 10 FCS championships. They haven't lost a single game since 2017. They are beyond stacked.

Under those conditions, Lance had success, but so did Easton Stick, Carson Wentz and Brock Jensen. I think Lance has a higher upside than any of them but you're talking about a freshman QB that still has many deficiencies in his game, still too quick to lock on to his first read or take off if its not there, still hit or miss when it comes to accuracy, still gets happy feet when pressured.

Rarely was he under fire though, only once has he had to bring his team back from a deficit and unlike a guy like Mitch Trubisky who also had limited stats, Lance was a starter as a freshman, had basically zero playing time as a sophomore and will now be entering the NFL whereas Trubisky got to sit for three years and immerse himself in the NC offense before he became a starter and then went off to the NFL.

Lance is going to be one of the most raw QB prospect's we've ever seen as a potential first rounder. He's got a ton of talent and all the upside but the reality is that he's further from a finished product than pretty much any other QB in this draft. A team will need to be patient with him and if they just throw him out there and tell him to sink or swim, he's far more likely to sink.

NDSU is a powerhouse, there's no doubt about it. Their QBs all were successful in college. But just like scouting a kid at Alabama or Georgia or LSU it's not just wins and statistics that are getting him this hype. The hype is all about his traits and what he's put on film.

I agree that he has snaps where locks onto his first read. I don't feel like that is something that shows up enough to be a genuine concern. There's plenty of snaps where he gets through his reads quickly going from left to right or right to left. Full field reads.

Disagree about him bailing the pocket if his first read is covered. One of his strengths is that he keeps his eyes downfield when he's moved off his spot. Definitely don't agree with the happy feet. I'd like to see what game this was in. Dude has extremely calm, precise feet and will stand in there and take a hit without blinking.

I think QB success has a ton to do with fit. Put him (or most QBs) in the wrong system and they're going to struggle. But I think a guy with his athleticism and size makes it easier to translate to the pros. NFL dudes are not gonna be a whole lot bigger and faster than him (compared to some of the other prospects). Add to that experience operating in an offense that asks him to do exactly what he'll do in the NFL (hopefully less the ridiculous amount of QB power).

Either way, I could be wrong on this one. I just don't see him being some project who you need to keep off the field forever lest you destroy his confidence and career. The kid's got a chance to be a really good pro.
[ Edited by Sunshine on Dec 28, 2020 at 9:07 PM ]
Originally posted by ComeOnDeberg:
This guy is overrated.. He throws deep to wide open receivers. He is not accurate. I haven't seen him go through progressions or read the defense. This video is all need to see. Yeah he is athletic, but that is not enough.


Man, that was a rough watch. Accuracy was all over the place, shoddy field vision, forced throws, etc. The running stuff is cool, but that should be supplementary to the throwing. A throwing first and foremost is what Kyle is looking for.

Whoever drafts this dude better feel secure about their job because they're taking a massive gamble. I like Trey Lance's tools a lot, but damn, the lack of reps makes drafting him in the first feel a bit crazy. As of right now, I don't think it'll be the 49ers.
[ Edited by Heroism on Dec 29, 2020 at 1:04 AM ]
Originally posted by Heroism:
Originally posted by ComeOnDeberg:
This guy is overrated.. He throws deep to wide open receivers. He is not accurate. I haven't seen him go through progressions or read the defense. This video is all need to see. Yeah he is athletic, but that is not enough.


Man, that was a rough watch. Accuracy was all over the place, shoddy field vision, forced throws, etc. The running stuff is cool, but that should be supplementary to the throwing. A throwing first and foremost is what Kyle is looking for.

Whoever drafts this dude better feel secure about their job because they're taking a massive gamble. I like Trey Lance's tools a lot, but damn, the lack of reps makes drafting him in the first feel a bit crazy. As of right now, I don't think it'll be the 49ers.

Yes, I changed my mind, don't want Lance in the 1st round, maybe in the 2nd rd
  • NM16
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Everybody has bad games. That video doesn't show who he is fully as a qb. Josh allen had terrible games for Wyoming but look at him now. There are plenty of videos that show him going through progressions, demonstrating high football IQ, high pocket presence, doesnt get rattled easily, has great ball placement and good accuracy. Plus his arm is a cannon. Hes just a work in progress like every qb coming out of college
Originally posted by NM16:
Everybody has bad games. That video doesn't show who he is fully as a qb. Josh allen had terrible games for Wyoming but look at him now. There are plenty of videos that show him going through progressions, demonstrating high football IQ, high pocket presence, doesnt get rattled easily, has great ball placement and good accuracy. Plus his arm is a cannon. Hes just a work in progress like every qb coming out of college

This.
Originally posted by NM16:
Everybody has bad games. That video doesn't show who he is fully as a qb. Josh allen had terrible games for Wyoming but look at him now. There are plenty of videos that show him going through progressions, demonstrating high football IQ, high pocket presence, doesnt get rattled easily, has great ball placement and good accuracy. Plus his arm is a cannon. Hes just a work in progress like every qb coming out of college

The problem is we don't know if that was just a bad game or a glimpse of who he was going to be in a full college season.
Originally posted by Heroism:
Originally posted by NM16:
Everybody has bad games. That video doesn't show who he is fully as a qb. Josh allen had terrible games for Wyoming but look at him now. There are plenty of videos that show him going through progressions, demonstrating high football IQ, high pocket presence, doesnt get rattled easily, has great ball placement and good accuracy. Plus his arm is a cannon. Hes just a work in progress like every qb coming out of college

The problem is we don't know if that was just a bad game or a glimpse of who he was going to be in a full college season.

That's a big what if. It's certainly possibly but I don't think it's reasonable to put that much stock into a fluky, last minute Covid game.

It also offered up a look at how he handles adversity. This was the only game in his career that he trailed in the 4th quarter and he makes a big time throw to help take the lead back and win. That's a silver lining but obviously you'd have liked to see him ball tf out instead.
  • NM16
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Originally posted by Heroism:
The problem is we don't know if that was just a bad game or a glimpse of who he was going to be in a full college season.
I dont think that matters too much. He was really good in his last season of college football. Like I said Josh allen was awful his last season at Wyoming but he landed in good spot at Buffalo and look at him now. Depending on what team gets Lance, would determine if hes successfull or not probably.
This kid definitely has potential.
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