Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by Sunshine:
Just about any QB will benefit from sitting on the bench for a season. Possibly Lance more than others. I do however think it's a bit silly to equate passing attempts to NFL readiness without looking at what QBs are being asked to do in their systems.
Lance is playing under center, has really advanced footwork on his drops, is going through progression reads and is setting protections at the LOS. He's going to take his lumps as NFL DCs throw curveballs at him but I'd rather have a guy who has 250 pass attempts doing exactly what he's going to be asked to do in the NFL than a guy who has 1000 passes out of the shotgun, with no game experience dropping back or reading defenses.
This isn't directly relevant but this all makes me think of what Kyle says about evaluating college WRs. Guys will have 200 catches in their college career but only a handful of plays where you see them doing what they'll be asked to do in the pros. It's about quality reps, not quantity.
Yes but some QB's will benefit far more. Virtually every QB that NDSU has had for the past decade has played really well. When you adjust for level of competition, that team is like Bama+Georgia combined. They simply outclass all their opponents in terms of talent which is why they've won 9 of the last 10 FCS championships. They haven't lost a single game since 2017. They are beyond stacked.
Under those conditions, Lance had success, but so did Easton Stick, Carson Wentz and Brock Jensen. I think Lance has a higher upside than any of them but you're talking about a freshman QB that still has many deficiencies in his game, still too quick to lock on to his first read or take off if its not there, still hit or miss when it comes to accuracy, still gets happy feet when pressured.
Rarely was he under fire though, only once has he had to bring his team back from a deficit and unlike a guy like Mitch Trubisky who also had limited stats, Lance was a starter as a freshman, had basically zero playing time as a sophomore and will now be entering the NFL whereas Trubisky got to sit for three years and immerse himself in the NC offense before he became a starter and then went off to the NFL.
Lance is going to be one of the most raw QB prospect's we've ever seen as a potential first rounder. He's got a ton of talent and all the upside but the reality is that he's further from a finished product than pretty much any other QB in this draft. A team will need to be patient with him and if they just throw him out there and tell him to sink or swim, he's far more likely to sink.
NDSU is a powerhouse, there's no doubt about it. Their QBs all were successful in college. But just like scouting a kid at Alabama or Georgia or LSU it's not just wins and statistics that are getting him this hype. The hype is all about his traits and what he's put on film.
I agree that he has snaps where locks onto his first read. I don't feel like that is something that shows up enough to be a genuine concern. There's plenty of snaps where he gets through his reads quickly going from left to right or right to left. Full field reads.
Disagree about him bailing the pocket if his first read is covered. One of his strengths is that he keeps his eyes downfield when he's moved off his spot. Definitely don't agree with the happy feet. I'd like to see what game this was in. Dude has extremely calm, precise feet and will stand in there and take a hit without blinking.
I think QB success has a ton to do with fit. Put him (or most QBs) in the wrong system and they're going to struggle. But I think a guy with his athleticism and size makes it easier to translate to the pros. NFL dudes are not gonna be a whole lot bigger and faster than him (compared to some of the other prospects). Add to that experience operating in an offense that asks him to do exactly what he'll do in the NFL (hopefully less the ridiculous amount of QB power).
Either way, I could be wrong on this one. I just don't see him being some project who you need to keep off the field forever lest you destroy his confidence and career. The kid's got a chance to be a really good pro.
[ Edited by Sunshine on Dec 28, 2020 at 9:07 PM ]