Trey Lance QB NDSU

Originally posted by rathman4481:
I'd take Lance over Jimmy right now IMO.

Lance is African-American, correct? Maybe, he can be a poor man's Patrick Mahomes.

Originally posted by adrianlesnar:

How is that talking out of both ends, lol. Again, you have a YouTube highlight video as evidence that he can't read a defense, because he stared down his 1st receiver on a handful of deep throws, despite not knowing what was asked of him, nor what he saw presnap. I can say that there are instances where he forgoes the layup to try and (wrongfully) get the big play, but in direct refute to your original post, we have no idea if he saw a mismatch presnap, if he saw his receiver beat his man at the line, or if his coach called a coverage beater and told him to hit the deep ball. We do know that his team runs a lot of mirror concepts and ask him to only read half of the field, likely because of his lack of experience.

That said, I too went to the toilet and typed in trey Lance full game on YouTube and the first game to pop up was vs south Dakota state in 2019. I do tend to take long poops, but without taking the time to try and decipher coverages, without taking the time to try and decipher route concepts to know the correct order of the reads, and without endzone view to be able to see his eyes and subtle head movements, I watched each pass play to see if he stared down his 1st read. Keep in mind, I am not accounting for situation, such as a designed read in the redzone. Also not accounting for the duration of time from snap to throw, which means some of the "1st read" throws are because it was the correct read, and not because of a stare down.

Play 2: not 1st read, underthrown
Play 6: not 1st read, good ball
Play 9: 1st read, overthrown
Play 10: not 1st read, good ball
Play 12: not 1st read, scramble
Play 13: 1st read, pbu (thrown a bit inside)
Play 14: not 1st read, good ball
Play 17: not 1st read, decent ball
Play 20: not 1st read, sack
Play 21: not 1st read, good ball
Play 23: not 1st read, good ball
Play 27: 1st read, good ball
Play 29: 1st read, good ball
Play 31: 1st read, good ball
Play 32: 1st read, good ball
Play 34: not 1st read, good ball

Id like to see more snaps obviously, and i'd like to see some better placement on a few of the throws.

I think NY posted earlier a break down from Waldman of some of things he can do well. Of course he has a lot of room to develop, but he is likely the 4th QB off the board after all. I'm banking that shanny can mask his deficiencies early, and that he can develop with time into an elite qb

You tell me not to confuse what Trey Lance can't do with what he isn't asked to do. i.e. Reading a pro- level defense and making appropriate adjustments. Then a few posts later you claim that he's good at it! How would you know if he wasn't asked to do it?? That's talking out of both ends.
Ultimately though, we've both made our point. With such a small sample size, there's not much more to comb through ya know? If we do draft this guy, I'm hoping to eat crow.

Originally posted by adrianlesnar:

Originally posted by Misfit_Niner540:

Originally posted by adrianlesnar:
Not sure what I'm retracting or recanting lmao, and now I'm sure you're opinion is based off of a YouTube highlight video. Also, I have no idea what you're talking about - he hasn't had to diagnose an NFL defense. ..because ....get this...he's not in the NFL. You shouldnt confuse what he is not asked to do with what he can't do. I simply raised the question, is it possible that he read the COLLEGE defense and is asked to predetermine his read?

Originally posted by adrianlesnar:
Your only support of the bold is a YouTube highlight video, and both him not at least possessing traits to suggest that he can read a defense (hint, he can, and pretty well for a guy with as little starts as he has) and him not being considered a top 15 pick are both false

Talking out of both ends.... we're really kicking the horse at this point.
You like Lance at 12, I like him in the second or third round. I'd rather take Newman in the 4th and fill more appropriate needs.

How is that talking out of both ends, lol. Again, you have a YouTube highlight video as evidence that he can't read a defense, because he stared down his 1st receiver on a handful of deep throws, despite not knowing what was asked of him, nor what he saw presnap. I can say that there are instances where he forgoes the layup to try and (wrongfully) get the big play, but in direct refute to your original post, we have no idea if he saw a mismatch presnap, if he saw his receiver beat his man at the line, or if his coach called a coverage beater and told him to hit the deep ball. We do know that his team runs a lot of mirror concepts and ask him to only read half of the field, likely because of his lack of experience.

That said, I too went to the toilet and typed in trey Lance full game on YouTube and the first game to pop up was vs south Dakota state in 2019. I do tend to take long poops, but without taking the time to try and decipher coverages, without taking the time to try and decipher route concepts to know the correct order of the reads, and without endzone view to be able to see his eyes and subtle head movements, I watched each pass play to see if he stared down his 1st read. Keep in mind, I am not accounting for situation, such as a designed read in the redzone. Also not accounting for the duration of time from snap to throw, which means some of the "1st read" throws are because it was the correct read, and not because of a stare down.

Play 2: not 1st read, underthrown
Play 6: not 1st read, good ball
Play 9: 1st read, overthrown
Play 10: not 1st read, good ball
Play 12: not 1st read, scramble
Play 13: 1st read, pbu (thrown a bit inside)
Play 14: not 1st read, good ball
Play 17: not 1st read, decent ball
Play 20: not 1st read, sack
Play 21: not 1st read, good ball
Play 23: not 1st read, good ball
Play 27: 1st read, good ball
Play 29: 1st read, good ball
Play 31: 1st read, good ball
Play 32: 1st read, good ball
Play 34: not 1st read, good ball

Id like to see more snaps obviously, and i'd like to see some better placement on a few of the throws.

I think NY posted earlier a break down from Waldman of some of things he can do well. Of course he has a lot of room to develop, but he is likely the 4th QB off the board after all. I'm banking that shanny can mask his deficiencies early, and that he can develop with time into an elite qb

Here's the breakdown from Waldman.

Originally posted by Misfit_Niner540:

You tell me not to confuse what Trey Lance can't do with what he isn't asked to do. i.e. Reading a pro- level defense and making appropriate adjustments. Then a few posts later you claim that he's good at it! How would you know if he wasn't asked to do it?? That's talking out of both ends.
Ultimately though, we've both made our point. With such a small sample size, there's not much more to comb through ya know? If we do draft this guy, I'm hoping to eat crow.

You're being incredibly dense.

In direct response to the video you posted and the comment you made, I asked if it is possible he was asked to hit the deep ball, and to not confuse him not reading the field in that instance (again, in the video you posted) as not being able to, because, again, it might be possible he asked to make that throw...we have no idea. I then posted other evidence of him, in other instances, reading the field.

We gotta go with Lance or Wilson if they are there at 12. Both already have higher ceilings than Jimmy and Zack Willson probably has a similar floor already to Jimmy.

Originally posted by adrianlesnar:

Originally posted by Misfit_Niner540:
You tell me not to confuse what Trey Lance can't do with what he isn't asked to do. i.e. Reading a pro- level defense and making appropriate adjustments. Then a few posts later you claim that he's good at it! How would you know if he wasn't asked to do it?? That's talking out of both ends.
Ultimately though, we've both made our point. With such a small sample size, there's not much more to comb through ya know? If we do draft this guy, I'm hoping to eat crow.

You're being incredibly dense.

In direct response to the video you posted and the comment you made, I asked if it is possible he was asked to hit the deep ball, and to not confuse him not reading the field in that instance (again, in the video you posted) as not being able to, because, again, it might be possible he asked to make that throw...we have no idea. I then posted other evidence of him, in other instances, reading the field.

that paragraph would have been fine without the personal attack. You can disagree without insulting.

Originally posted by adrianlesnar:

You're being incredibly dense.

In direct response to the video you posted and the comment you made, I asked if it is possible he was asked to hit the deep ball, and to not confuse him not reading the field in that instance (again, in the video you posted) as not being able to, because, again, it might be possible he asked to make that throw...we have no idea. I then posted other evidence of him, in other instances, reading the field.

I'm being incredibly dense?
Dude, you've mentioned this YouTube video and the "is it possible" question line in every response. Yet conveniently haven't touched on the FCS aspect and complete lack of competition. How many championships do the Bison have and why the hell are they still in the FCS anyway? I digress....
Of course your scenarios are possible. Hang out for 5 seconds while looking at one side of the field then chuck it 50 yards to your wide open receiver. Seems to be the go to in NDS playbook. However a QBs job becomes remarkably more comfortable when there's nobody exploding off the edge ready to break him in half. Or DBs that can stick a foot in the dirt and break on (what you think is) a perfectly thrown ball just to take it the other way for 6.
There's too many unanswered questions and red flags for me, that's all. Even though i don't think we will and hope we don't, I never said we wouldn't draft him at 12.
We'll see what happens.

The game you handpicked to breakdown he had quite the outing.
7/14 62 yards 1 TD
28 TDs and 0 INTS is uber impressive..I will give you that.

Originally posted by mayo49:
Lance is African-American, correct? Maybe, he can be a poor man's Patrick Mahomes.

Like Mahomes, Lance is bi-racial, A-A pro athlete dad (played in CFL), Caucasian mom. Maybe a better comparison, though, is Josh Allen, an amazing athlete who people thought wasn't an accurate passer and would never become one. Wrong. Kyle will work him out and be able to make a good projection.

Originally posted by Misfit_Niner540:

I'm being incredibly dense?
Dude, you've mentioned this YouTube video and the "is it possible" question line in every response. Yet conveniently haven't touched on the FCS aspect and complete lack of competition. How many championships do the Bison have and why the hell are they still in the FCS anyway? I digress....
Of course your scenarios are possible. Hang out for 5 seconds while looking at one side of the field then chuck it 50 yards to your wide open receiver. Seems to be the go to in NDS playbook. However a QBs job becomes remarkably more comfortable when there's nobody exploding off the edge ready to break him in half. Or DBs that can stick a foot in the dirt and break on (what you think is) a perfectly thrown ball just to take it the other way for 6.
There's too many unanswered questions and red flags for me, that's all. Even though i don't think we will and hope we don't, I never said we wouldn't draft him at 12.
We'll see what happens.

The game you handpicked to breakdown he had quite the outing.
7/14 62 yards 1 TD
28 TDs and 0 INTS is uber impressive..I will give you that.

Unfortunately, the bold is because I have to keep explaining what I thought was obvious.

As for competition, why do I need to talk about competition when were discussing traits? Which of Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, or Jones were under constant duress and needing to consistently throw to their receivers in tight coverage?! What evidence do we have to suggest that Lance doesn't have the arm strength to the drive the ball through a tight window? With 28 TD and no picks, he must at least throw somewhat of an accurate ball, regardless of level of competition.

As for the last comment, obviously I don't care about stats if I'm looking for traits. The point was to illustrate that he does more than just stare down his first read. The game wasn't hand picked, it the first one to pop up on YouTube lmao.

I'd understand being scared about his lack of experience. I'd understand being offput by his coaching staff's decision to make him run the ball so often rather than pass. I'd even understand question his ability to read a defense. My only qualm was the use of a highlight video and how often you hear the words "wide open" with no other context or analysis to substantiate your views.


Nothing against you obviously, as this is just a forum, but so many people just hear someone say something like "he's a run first qb" and then go around saying how bad he sucks and doesn't fit the scheme without ever even watching a down (or knowing what they're watching).

I'm fine to agree to disagree and will try my best to not respond any further

Originally posted by Kuya:

We gotta go with Lance or Wilson if they are there at 12. Both already have higher ceilings than Jimmy and Zack Willson probably has a similar floor already to Jimmy.

Wilson wont be there and most likely Lance wont be there either. I think if lucky Wilson can get to 7 or 8 but most likely sooner. When wilson goes, who I expect to be Qb3, I expect Lance to go shortly after

If he is there at #12, I'd pull the trigger. But I wouldn't start him right away. The Niners should look at this like how the Chiefs did it with Alex Smith and Mahomes. Let Trey Lance sit for a year and learn, while Jimmy G still plays.

But I am not sure Lance is going to be there, and honestly, I don't think I'd trade up for him. This roster has too many holes, and they kind of need those day 2 and day 3 picks

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by rathman4481:

I'd take Lance over Jimmy right now IMO.

Lance is African-American, correct? Maybe, he can be a poor man's Patrick Mahomes.

Originally posted by Ensatsu:

If he is there at #12, I'd pull the trigger. But I wouldn't start him right away. The Niners should look at this like how the Chiefs did it with Alex Smith and Mahomes. Let Trey Lance sit for a year and learn, while Jimmy G still plays.

But I am not sure Lance is going to be there, and honestly, I don't think I'd trade up for him. This roster has too many holes, and they kind of need those day 2 and day 3 picks

This is absolutely what I'd be looking at doing. The draft has a ton of recency bias, the fact Lance hasn't played this year will hurt him.

Sure he may be able to pull some back in the off-season, but there are 3 guys who are locks to go above him. I think there's a big chance that he's there.

Absolutely wouldn't be ready to start year 1 and that also plays into our hands.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
This is absolutely what I'd be looking at doing. The draft has a ton of recency bias, the fact Lance hasn't played this year will hurt him.

Sure he may be able to pull some back in the off-season, but there are 3 guys who are locks to go above him. I think there's a big chance that he's there.

Absolutely wouldn't be ready to start year 1 and that also plays into our hands.

I wouldn't trade up for Lance but if he's sitting right there when the 49ers are drafting, he'd be hard to turn down. You draft him, you sit him for a year and you let him immerse himself in the NFL environment, learn the offense and absorb as much as he can in moving from the FCS to the NFL. Run him out there in some packages in the same way that Harbaugh used Kaepernick as a rookie, stuff that can build his confidence and by Year 2 he should be your starter from Day 1.

I feel comfortable taking lance if we have a vet qb in front of him. Yes, even if we still have jimmy. If not we take the ultimate mentor qb in fitzmagic lmfao. Lance is raw in his development, plays in a small school, and only played one game this year and he looked meh. But the talent is there and I feel like Kyle would work very well with him. The only wild card is we don't know his personality or his demeanor. Which I think is the most important trait in a qb. Dont want a haskins situation.