Trey Lance QB NDSU

Wow, just looked at his game logs. Not good. He was awful throwing the ball in any close, or even relatively close game. So vs teams with a pulse there are a few things in common. Completion % around 50 and 0 or 1 TD.
He only had 5 games on which weren't blowouts. In those games his stat lines are below:
UC Davis: 13 for 23(56.5%) 156 yards and 0 TDs
Miss St: 21-31(67.7%) 225 and 0
SD St: 7 for 14(50%) 62 and 1
SIU: 13 for 23(56.5%) 146 and 0
I'll St: 10 for 21(47.6) 135 and 0
Those were the only games within 22 points. He was awful through the air in those.
This guy is a complete project with nice tools. Not what the Niners need right now.

Originally posted by BamaNiner:

Wow, just looked at his game logs. Not good. He was awful throwing the ball in any close, or even relatively close game. So vs teams with a pulse there are a few things in common. Completion % around 50 and 0 or 1 TD.
He only had 5 games on which weren't blowouts. In those games his stat lines are below:
UC Davis: 13 for 23(56.5%) 156 yards and 0 TDs
Miss St: 21-31(67.7%) 225 and 0
SD St: 7 for 14(50%) 62 and 1
SIU: 13 for 23(56.5%) 146 and 0
I'll St: 10 for 21(47.6) 135 and 0
Those were the only games within 22 points. He was awful through the air in those.
This guy is a complete project with nice tools. Not what the Niners need right now.

Statline scouting is just the worst. They used him as a runner a lot, established the run and played great D. They won every one of those games, so hard to argue.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:

Statline scouting is just the worst. They used him as a runner a lot, established the run and played great D. They won every one of those games, so hard to argue.

It's not hard to argue a 50% completion percentage vs SOU and UC Davis type teams. You've got to be a threat from the pocket and I assure you, at this point in his career, Lance has a lot of work to do to become that

Originally posted by BamaNiner:

It's not hard to argue a 50% completion percentage vs SOU and UC Davis type teams. You've got to be a threat from the pocket and I assure you, at this point in his career, Lance has a lot of work to do to become that

Same boat as Josh Allen in Wyoming. That's why I keep referencing him. I actually think Lance is more accurate than him coming out of college. He's more accurate than Jackson coming out of college.

It's all about traits for him. Looks like he's being tighten up his throwing motion this off season...similar to what Allen did this off season.

Originally posted by BamaNiner:

Wow, just looked at his game logs. Not good. He was awful throwing the ball in any close, or even relatively close game. So vs teams with a pulse there are a few things in common. Completion % around 50 and 0 or 1 TD.
He only had 5 games on which weren't blowouts. In those games his stat lines are below:
UC Davis: 13 for 23(56.5%) 156 yards and 0 TDs
Miss St: 21-31(67.7%) 225 and 0
SD St: 7 for 14(50%) 62 and 1
SIU: 13 for 23(56.5%) 146 and 0
I'll St: 10 for 21(47.6) 135 and 0
Those were the only games within 22 points. He was awful through the air in those.
This guy is a complete project with nice tools. Not what the Niners need right now.

They did not play Miss St

Originally posted by pdfortune:

They did not play Miss St

Missouri St.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Same boat as Josh Allen in Wyoming. That's why I keep referencing him. I actually think Lance is more accurate than him coming out of college. He's more accurate than Jackson coming out of college.

It's all about traits for him. Looks like he's being tighten up his throwing motion this off season...similar to what Allen did this off season.

Quick sneak peek into a Quarterback Takeover draft prep session with Trey Lance. Working through some different drops and footwork from under center.@Quincy_Avery @QbTakeover pic.twitter.com/zM9NLXINE0

— Sean McEvoy (@QBCoachMcEvoy) November 18, 2020

He def has talent but nowhere near the arm of or size of Allen. Allen is the perfect storm of it all coming together, that's what you hope for every time you draft a guy like him and a lot of times it doesn't work out and you are looking for another ab 2 years down the line.

Originally posted by BamaNiner:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Same boat as Josh Allen in Wyoming. That's why I keep referencing him. I actually think Lance is more accurate than him coming out of college. He's more accurate than Jackson coming out of college.

It's all about traits for him. Looks like he's being tighten up his throwing motion this off season...similar to what Allen did this off season.

Quick sneak peek into a Quarterback Takeover draft prep session with Trey Lance. Working through some different drops and footwork from under center.@Quincy_Avery @QbTakeover pic.twitter.com/zM9NLXINE0

— Sean McEvoy (@QBCoachMcEvoy) November 18, 2020

He def has talent but nowhere near the arm of or size of Allen. Allen is the perfect storm of it all coming together, that's what you hope for every time you draft a guy like him and a lot of times it doesn't work out and you are looking for another ab 2 years down the line.

Josh Allen is brought not as a comp, but an illustration of what you can do with arm talent and athleticism regardless of your college career.

He's very different as a prospect, much cleaner footwork and better accuracy, and a better runner.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:

Josh Allen is brought not as a comp, but an illustration of what you can do with arm talent and athleticism regardless of your college career.

He's very different as a prospect, much cleaner footwork and better accuracy, and a better runner.

I understand that, still doesn't change anything in my post. I agree, he has talent and loaded with tools, but going to take some seasoning before he's serviceable in the NFL.
I could throw out Jake Locker just as you do Allen as a cautionary tale. Similar size, speed, arm talent, drafted for what he could be as opposed to what he was.

Originally posted by BamaNiner:

He def has talent but nowhere near the arm of or size of Allen. Allen is the perfect storm of it all coming together, that's what you hope for every time you draft a guy like him and a lot of times it doesn't work out and you are looking for another ab 2 years down the line.

It's weird how you only breakdown a couple "specific games" and come to the conclusion he's not accurate...when in fact he completed 66.9% of his passes, which was actually better than Mahomes in his air raid offense in college. Did you go through any specific games with him?

Look, I get it limited sample size. It's not like Mac Jones has a billion starts either (actually both have 17 starts). We clearly know who you like (judging by your name), which is totally fine.

IMO traits and upside matter when you're talking about making a kid the FQB, for me it's not about YR1 production but what he can become...as far as arm talent, while not Allen he would have a upper echelon arm in the NFL from day 1. Top 10 in the league imo.

Im also not married to any one QB prospect in this draft

Originally posted by BamaNiner:

I understand that, still doesn't change anything in my post. I agree, he has talent and loaded with tools, but going to take some seasoning before he's serviceable in the NFL.
I could throw out Jake Locker just as you do Allen as a cautionary tale. Similar size, speed, arm talent, drafted for what he could be as opposed to what he was.

Right and I can throw out Matt Barkley when talking about Mac Jones just as well.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:

Kriz, I'm not contradicting myself I'm analyzing his games, but projecting to the pro's.

Projection isn't an exact science, but if you only analyze you get nowhere.

To be fair if you only project you won't get much further.

You are correct on both fronts.

Projection isn't an exact science because the only guys that get "projected" are the guys that are "raw" and have "upside". The guys that you have to mold. More times often than not that piece never turns out to be as dynamic as one thinks.

Then again, we all have our own opinions and projections

Originally posted by NYniner85:

It's weird how you only breakdown a couple "specific games" and come to the conclusion he's not accurate...when in fact he completed 66.9% of his passes, which was actually better than Mahomes in his air raid offense in college. Did you go through any specific games with him?

Look, I get it limited sample size. It's not like Mac Jones has a billion starts either (actually both have 17 starts). We clearly know who you like (judging by your name), which is totally fine.

IMO traits and upside matter when you're talking about making a kid the FQB, for me it's not about YR1 production but what he can become...as far as arm talent, while not Allen he would have a upper echelon arm in the NFL from day 1. Top 10 in the league imo.

Im also not married to any one QB prospect in this draft

I agree that traits and tools matter 100%. You just have to weigh all the ingredients and also look at what kind of offense they will be running here.
Lance obviously has the better arm and much better athlete vs Mac, but how much more does that mean in Shanahan offense. I think quick processing, anticipation, and getting the ball out mean a lot more in this offense than making those strong out route throws or running and creating off schedule do. That's just what Kyle needs and values.
I do prefer Mac but not by a ton, I'm mainly just playing contrarian here.
I believe this is a roster that's ready to win now and needs a ab to step in and operate Shannys offense efficiently and be able to manipulate the pocket and make quick decisions. I think that's Mac as opposed to Lance.
And also, I agree that you can throw out Barkley among 100s of others including Ken Dorsey as cautionary tales. There's no right answer, just opinions and hopes

Originally posted by BamaNiner:

I agree that traits and tools matter 100%. You just have to weigh all the ingredients and also look at what kind of offense they will be running here.
Lance obviously has the better arm and much better athlete vs Mac, but how much more does that mean in Shanahan offense. I think quick processing, anticipation, and getting the ball out mean a lot more in this offense than making those strong out route throws or running and creating off schedule do. That's just what Kyle needs and values.
I do prefer Mac but not by a ton, I'm mainly just playing contrarian here.
I believe this is a roster that's ready to win now and needs a ab to step in and operate Shannys offense efficiently and be able to manipulate the pocket and make quick decisions. I think that's Mac as opposed to Lance.
And also, I agree that you can throw out Barkley among 100s of others including Ken Dorsey as cautionary tales. There's no right answer, just opinions and hopes

Agreed...I also think the mental side of football can be learned, if you have the proper coaching staff and roster. It's the god given traits that you can't teach.

It's all subjective talk we all have guys we prefer...I will say at the end of the day whomever Kyle goes with I'm in (If he even goes QB).

Really the only way I'm be gonna be pissed is if we roll into 2021 with Jimmy as the starter and some day 3 rookie and Beathard our QB room HAS to be upgraded...after multiple seasons of Jimmy missing games you have to have a legit backup or higher end rookie that will be taken over sooner than later.

Originally posted by BamaNiner:

I agree that traits and tools matter 100%. You just have to weigh all the ingredients and also look at what kind of offense they will be running here.
Lance obviously has the better arm and much better athlete vs Mac, but how much more does that mean in Shanahan offense. I think quick processing, anticipation, and getting the ball out mean a lot more in this offense than making those strong out route throws or running and creating off schedule do. That's just what Kyle needs and values.
I do prefer Mac but not by a ton, I'm mainly just playing contrarian here.
I believe this is a roster that's ready to win now and needs a ab to step in and operate Shannys offense efficiently and be able to manipulate the pocket and make quick decisions. I think that's Mac as opposed to Lance.
And also, I agree that you can throw out Barkley among 100s of others including Ken Dorsey as cautionary tales. There's no right answer, just opinions and hopes

The NDSU offence rips off many elements of ours, the playaction game most of all, and the footwork required is very similar.

Will definitely help the transition.

You're right about the processing, it is a simplified version, Mac Jones could definitely handle that better, you would need to check Lance can get there.

Lance would add a whole new Redzone dimension, having a mobile QB combined with a strong running game is a cheat code.