Trey Lance QB NDSU

I can see the tools, but I see a ton of red flags for me. He reminds me of a mix of Johnny Manziel and Kaepernick, whereas he never displays going through passing progressions. He was more talented, and when I watch his tape, sometimes it feels like I'm watching a kid play Madden with a create a player on rookie settings. He never had to throw tight throws because he could just scamper around and out-athlete everyone else until he either found someone wide open or ran for a gain. Less athletic teams were streched thin trying to cover receivers and contain QB. It also felt like Ohio State versus UNR athletic wise, in most of these games for him. However, it is hard to fault someone for displaying, what you could argue is perfect decision making. However, he is not a Lamar Jackson, he has no acceleration in my opinion, and he is more of a long strider like Kaepernick which is why I use that comparison. My Manziel comp is due to the way he buys time and improvises to find open people and maintain that amazing TD-INT Ratio.

Bottom Line: When I watch Trey Lance, I see a mixture of Manziel and Kaep. A perfect blend of the two I would say. Kaep's frame and speed, Manziel's gameday head and improv skills. I have not seen him stand in the pocket and have a team take away his run game, forcing him to stay in the pocket and make progressions. I don't feel he had to read the defense, and make adjustments that he will need to make at the next level. I am not saying he can't do it, but it is hard to project him developing that skill. He has a good arm and deep ball, but that's also with a clean 7 step foot drop and a guy running free down the seam 1 on 1 with no deep help. Correct read, but easy throw. If you can protect the ball, throw accurate deep, and run the ball, you have a place in this league. I felt similar about Josh Allen though, who had way worse college tape. I was wrong about him. If we take him at 12 and let him sit behind Jimmy a year, I am okay with that, if Shanahan believes in him. However, I won't be banging my fist on the table for us to draft him at 12. Would rather trade down

Nice, well thought out post, it's a fair summary of last year. I think you saw a slight shift in the 1 game this year, and I think that's because they were trying to give him the opportunity to show growth. The results were mixed.

It's obvious that he's given half field reads, we also do it a fair bit, work one side of the field given a certain coverage. It helps the QB, bit also gives a bad impression when guys come open that they aren't even supposed to look at.

The only thing I disagree with are your comps, I think running wide he's more like Cam, and passing I see Russ and a bit of Deshaun, he just has far too good footwork and touch to be compared to Kap IMO.

Originally posted by 808niner4lyphe:

Originally posted by Giedi:
Kyle supposedly liked Josh coming out of college in 2017. Except he didn't and stayed in school, hence he got BeatHard instead. Assuming he still likes Josh as much as he did back then, I can see him not picking a QB till much later in the draft if at all. As for Trey, I have to rely on the college experts here because I don't have the time to watch those games unfortunately.

Kyle liked Josh Allen, not Rosen.

Originally posted by Heroism:
Josh Rosen will be lucky to be on the week 1 roster. I wouldn't factor him in anything.

Dang, I was hoping we could save a draft pick and move that to OLine or DB. Drat!

Originally posted by Heroism:

Josh Rosen will be lucky to be on the week 1 roster. I wouldn't factor him in anything.

I bet my GME shares that he won't be on the roster

Originally posted by NTeply49:
I can see the tools, but I see a ton of red flags for me. He reminds me of a mix of Johnny Manziel and Kaepernick, whereas he never displays going through passing progressions. He was more talented, and when I watch his tape, sometimes it feels like I'm watching a kid play Madden with a create a player on rookie settings. He never had to throw tight throws because he could just scamper around and out-athlete everyone else until he either found someone wide open or ran for a gain. Less athletic teams were streched thin trying to cover receivers and contain QB. It also felt like Ohio State versus UNR athletic wise, in most of these games for him. However, it is hard to fault someone for displaying, what you could argue is perfect decision making. However, he is not a Lamar Jackson, he has no acceleration in my opinion, and he is more of a long strider like Kaepernick which is why I use that comparison. My Manziel comp is due to the way he buys time and improvises to find open people and maintain that amazing TD-INT Ratio.

Bottom Line: When I watch Trey Lance, I see a mixture of Manziel and Kaep. A perfect blend of the two I would say. Kaep's frame and speed, Manziel's gameday head and improv skills. I have not seen him stand in the pocket and have a team take away his run game, forcing him to stay in the pocket and make progressions. I don't feel he had to read the defense, and make adjustments that he will need to make at the next level. I am not saying he can't do it, but it is hard to project him developing that skill. He has a good arm and deep ball, but that's also with a clean 7 step foot drop and a guy running free down the seam 1 on 1 with no deep help. Correct read, but easy throw. If you can protect the ball, throw accurate deep, and run the ball, you have a place in this league. I felt similar about Josh Allen though, who had way worse college tape. I was wrong about him. If we take him at 12 and let him sit behind Jimmy a year, I am okay with that, if Shanahan believes in him. However, I won't be banging my fist on the table for us to draft him at 12. Would rather trade down

I don't think people were wrong about Josh Allen, the kid just did a ton of work in every offseason to improve. Everyone saw his potential but no one can project whether or not a guy will put in the work to reach it.

Originally posted by All22:

Originally posted by NTeply49:

I can see the tools, but I see a ton of red flags for me. He reminds me of a mix of Johnny Manziel and Kaepernick, whereas he never displays going through passing progressions. He was more talented, and when I watch his tape, sometimes it feels like I'm watching a kid play Madden with a create a player on rookie settings. He never had to throw tight throws because he could just scamper around and out-athlete everyone else until he either found someone wide open or ran for a gain. Less athletic teams were streched thin trying to cover receivers and contain QB. It also felt like Ohio State versus UNR athletic wise, in most of these games for him. However, it is hard to fault someone for displaying, what you could argue is perfect decision making. However, he is not a Lamar Jackson, he has no acceleration in my opinion, and he is more of a long strider like Kaepernick which is why I use that comparison. My Manziel comp is due to the way he buys time and improvises to find open people and maintain that amazing TD-INT Ratio.

Bottom Line: When I watch Trey Lance, I see a mixture of Manziel and Kaep. A perfect blend of the two I would say. Kaep's frame and speed, Manziel's gameday head and improv skills. I have not seen him stand in the pocket and have a team take away his run game, forcing him to stay in the pocket and make progressions. I don't feel he had to read the defense, and make adjustments that he will need to make at the next level. I am not saying he can't do it, but it is hard to project him developing that skill. He has a good arm and deep ball, but that's also with a clean 7 step foot drop and a guy running free down the seam 1 on 1 with no deep help. Correct read, but easy throw. If you can protect the ball, throw accurate deep, and run the ball, you have a place in this league. I felt similar about Josh Allen though, who had way worse college tape. I was wrong about him. If we take him at 12 and let him sit behind Jimmy a year, I am okay with that, if Shanahan believes in him. However, I won't be banging my fist on the table for us to draft him at 12. Would rather trade down

I don't think people were wrong about Josh Allen, the kid just did a ton of work in every offseason to improve. Everyone saw his potential but no one can project whether or not a guy will put in the work to reach it.

This.

If Lance falls to 12, we need to pull the trigger.

More film I watch on him the more intrigued I get. Very raw kid but I like his footwork and seems to have good command of a pro style offense. His play action game has me picturing big things in our system. I can see us drafting him at 12 and he sits behind Jimmy for a year.

Originally posted by Young2Owens:

More film I watch on him the more intrigued I get. Very raw kid but I like his footwork and seems to have good command of a pro style offense. His play action game has me picturing big things in our system. I can see us drafting him at 12 and he sits behind Jimmy for a year.

personally id be fine with taking a chance on him, i just don't believe they take him at 12

Originally posted by TheXFactor:

If Lance falls to 12, we need to pull the trigger.

Can you explain why ? What do you see in him ? I'm asking not disagreeing, he's the 1 QB in the draft I can say idk anything about.

Originally posted by jersey49er:

Originally posted by TheXFactor:

If Lance falls to 12, we need to pull the trigger.

Can you explain why ? What do you see in him ? I'm asking not disagreeing, he's the 1 QB in the draft I can say idk anything about.

Bc hes the best qb to take in our position. The other 3 will likely be gone

Originally posted by NM16:

Bc hes the best qb to take in our position. The other 3 will likely be gone

You don't draft a QB because "he's the highest ranking guy left." That is how you wind up with Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel or Paxton Lynch.


Out of the top 5 or 6 QBs in this draft, historically the odds are that one or two become franchise QBs, one or two become average starters and two or three are likely to bust.


If Lance is the #1 QB on your board then you do everything you can to get him but if you're wanting to draft him because "he's the highest ranking QB left", then most likely you're going to wind up wasting that pick.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by NM16:

Bc hes the best qb to take in our position. The other 3 will likely be gone

You don't draft a QB because "he's the highest ranking guy left." That is how you wind up with Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel or Paxton Lynch.


Out of the top 5 or 6 QBs in this draft, historically the odds are that one or two become franchise QBs, one or two become average starters and two or three are likely to bust.


If Lance is the #1 QB on your board then you do everything you can to get him but if you're wanting to draft him because "he's the highest ranking QB left", then most likely you're going to wind up wasting that pick.

I agree, have you scouted Lance, can you give me the plus vs negative on him ? I've seen him mocked to the niners recently, and I hope not bc he's the next best QB in the board lol

Originally posted by jersey49er:

I agree, have you scouted Lance, can you give me the plus vs negative on him ? I've seen him mocked to the niners recently, and I hope not bc he's the next best QB in the board lol

I've watched nearly all of his games, it's the strangest one I've done. I'd equate it to a basketball eval, one year of great college play and they draft the potential and develop them.

Problem is that in football this extra year he missed would have enabled teams to see if he grew to a level they were comfortable with or not.

His RS Freshman year, he dominated (at FCS level) hardly anyone could tackle him and he threw a great deep ball to WR's teams couldn't keep up with. The offense was very basic (but at least had him under center quite a lot)

He then had one game this year where they tried to showcase his growth as a QB. His drops were tighter and it looks like his throwing motion improved, but he missed a big throw early, and the results were mixed. 2nd half they went back to letting him run to win them the game.

Pros

Footwork, it's been described as "teaching tape" you show other QB's to improve theirs, moves like a ballerina and it's the best I've seen out of this class.

Arm strength, ball gets out with zip and can make "NFL throws" deep outs and digs with ease.

Touch, he throws a beautiful Russell Wilson esqe high arc deep ball, easier to catch harder to defend.

Running ability, would battle with Fields to be the #3 running threat in the league day 1, not the angle busting speed Lamar and Kyler have, but plenty fast enough and can juke or run over you (think early Cam)

Will come back with negatives later, a projection and maybe a comp.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:

Originally posted by jersey49er:

I agree, have you scouted Lance, can you give me the plus vs negative on him ? I've seen him mocked to the niners recently, and I hope not bc he's the next best QB in the board lol

I've watched nearly all of his games, it's the strangest one I've done. I'd equate it to a basketball eval, one year of great college play and they draft the potential and develop them.

Problem is that in football this extra year he missed would have enabled teams to see if he grew to a level they were comfortable with or not.

His RS Freshman year, he dominated (at FCS level) hardly anyone could tackle him and he threw a great deep ball to WR's teams couldn't keep up with. The offense was very basic (but at least had him under center quite a lot)

He then had one game this year where they tried to showcase his growth as a QB. His drops were tighter and it looks like his throwing motion improved, but he missed a big throw early, and the results were mixed. 2nd half they went back to letting him run to win them the game.

Pros

Footwork, it's been described as "teaching tape" you show other QB's to improve theirs, moves like a ballerina and it's the best I've seen out of this class.

Arm strength, ball gets out with zip and can make "NFL throws" deep outs and digs with ease.

Touch, he throws a beautiful Russell Wilson esqe high arc deep ball, easier to catch harder to defend.

Running ability, would battle with Fields to be the #3 running threat in the league day 1, not the angle busting speed Lamar and Kyler have, but plenty fast enough and can juke or run over you (think early Cam)

Will come back with negatives later, a projection and maybe a comp.

Cool, definitely looking forward to his negatives, appreciate the input brother. 1 question tho, is he worth a top 10 pick ?