Trey Lance QB NDSU

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:

I've watched nearly all of his games, it's the strangest one I've done. I'd equate it to a basketball eval, one year of great college play and they draft the potential and develop them.

Problem is that in football this extra year he missed would have enabled teams to see if he grew to a level they were comfortable with or not.

His RS Freshman year, he dominated (at FCS level) hardly anyone could tackle him and he threw a great deep ball to WR's teams couldn't keep up with. The offense was very basic (but at least had him under center quite a lot)

He then had one game this year where they tried to showcase his growth as a QB. His drops were tighter and it looks like his throwing motion improved, but he missed a big throw early, and the results were mixed. 2nd half they went back to letting him run to win them the game.

Pros

Footwork, it's been described as "teaching tape" you show other QB's to improve theirs, moves like a ballerina and it's the best I've seen out of this class.

Arm strength, ball gets out with zip and can make "NFL throws" deep outs and digs with ease.

Touch, he throws a beautiful Russell Wilson esqe high arc deep ball, easier to catch harder to defend.

Running ability, would battle with Fields to be the #3 running threat in the league day 1, not the angle busting speed Lamar and Kyler have, but plenty fast enough and can juke or run over you (think early Cam)

Will come back with negatives later, a projection and maybe a comp.

Thanks, good work. Damned useful because I don't think I have seen a single game of him. So, pending your list of negatives, right now from what you say he sounds like a fair option for #12 and sitting behind Garoppolo for a year?

Originally posted by English:

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:

I've watched nearly all of his games, it's the strangest one I've done. I'd equate it to a basketball eval, one year of great college play and they draft the potential and develop them.

Problem is that in football this extra year he missed would have enabled teams to see if he grew to a level they were comfortable with or not.

His RS Freshman year, he dominated (at FCS level) hardly anyone could tackle him and he threw a great deep ball to WR's teams couldn't keep up with. The offense was very basic (but at least had him under center quite a lot)

He then had one game this year where they tried to showcase his growth as a QB. His drops were tighter and it looks like his throwing motion improved, but he missed a big throw early, and the results were mixed. 2nd half they went back to letting him run to win them the game.

Pros

Footwork, it's been described as "teaching tape" you show other QB's to improve theirs, moves like a ballerina and it's the best I've seen out of this class.

Arm strength, ball gets out with zip and can make "NFL throws" deep outs and digs with ease.

Touch, he throws a beautiful Russell Wilson esqe high arc deep ball, easier to catch harder to defend.

Running ability, would battle with Fields to be the #3 running threat in the league day 1, not the angle busting speed Lamar and Kyler have, but plenty fast enough and can juke or run over you (think early Cam)

Will come back with negatives later, a projection and maybe a comp.

Thanks, good work. Damned useful because I don't think I have seen a single game of him. So, pending your list of negatives, right now from what you say he sounds like a fair option for #12 and sitting behind Garoppolo for a year?

Yup from his evaluation Lance seems like he's got a lot to work with, especially with Kyle getting his hands on him.

Originally posted by jersey49er:

Originally posted by English:

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
I've watched nearly all of his games, it's the strangest one I've done. I'd equate it to a basketball eval, one year of great college play and they draft the potential and develop them.

Problem is that in football this extra year he missed would have enabled teams to see if he grew to a level they were comfortable with or not.

His RS Freshman year, he dominated (at FCS level) hardly anyone could tackle him and he threw a great deep ball to WR's teams couldn't keep up with. The offense was very basic (but at least had him under center quite a lot)

He then had one game this year where they tried to showcase his growth as a QB. His drops were tighter and it looks like his throwing motion improved, but he missed a big throw early, and the results were mixed. 2nd half they went back to letting him run to win them the game.

Pros

Footwork, it's been described as "teaching tape" you show other QB's to improve theirs, moves like a ballerina and it's the best I've seen out of this class.

Arm strength, ball gets out with zip and can make "NFL throws" deep outs and digs with ease.

Touch, he throws a beautiful Russell Wilson esqe high arc deep ball, easier to catch harder to defend.

Running ability, would battle with Fields to be the #3 running threat in the league day 1, not the angle busting speed Lamar and Kyler have, but plenty fast enough and can juke or run over you (think early Cam)

Will come back with negatives later, a projection and maybe a comp.

Thanks, good work. Damned useful because I don't think I have seen a single game of him. So, pending your list of negatives, right now from what you say he sounds like a fair option for #12 and sitting behind Garoppolo for a year?

Yup from his evaluation Lance seems like he's got a lot to work with, especially with Kyle getting his hands on him.

Dude could be Elway 2.0 if he pans out

Negatives

Mid range accuracy

This sucks as it's one of Kyle's most important traits, but he misses or misplaces more than you'd like.

I think it's linked to this next one

Throwing motion

This would be in the positives if it wasn't for the load up he does pre throw, he sinks his back leg collapsing the knee. This tips the D, to combat this he seems to rush the rest of his motion. The result is that the ball gets out pretty much on time, but I think it affects his accuracy.

Blitz recognition

Like most college QB's he'll be slow diagnosing the blitz, if he's at the right part of the play he'll deliver the ball under pressure (something Kyle values) otherwise he'll look to evade and run, not ideal.

The other things I don't class as negatives, they're just facts. He lacks experience.

Field vision will be said by some as a negative, but he wasn't asked to do it. Given a half field read, deep option and check down, if it's not there run. Very much like the Baltimore offense. It's not fair to ding him for something that's dictated to him.

Bottom line, he absolutely needs to redshirt at least a year. I think he's negatives are correctable, his motion improved from last year to the game this year, and seems better still in his recent workout vids.

You might get an absolute stud, he might turn into a running gadget type guy.

I think my closest comp is Dak, but he's pretty unique, he has things you wouldn't normally associate with a big athletic QB.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
Negatives

Mid range accuracy

This sucks as it's one of Kyle's most important traits, but he misses or misplaces more than you'd like.

I think it's linked to this next one

Throwing motion

This would be in the positives if it wasn't for the load up he does pre throw, he sinks his back leg collapsing the knee. This tips the D, to combat this he seems to rush the rest of his motion. The result is that the ball gets out pretty much on time, but I think it affects his accuracy.

Blitz recognition

Like most college QB's he'll be slow diagnosing the blitz, if he's at the right part of the play he'll deliver the ball under pressure (something Kyle values) otherwise he'll look to evade and run, not ideal.

The other things I don't class as negatives, they're just facts. He lacks experience.

Field vision will be said by some as a negative, but he wasn't asked to do it. Given a half field read, deep option and check down, if it's not there run. Very much like the Baltimore offense. It's not fair to ding him for something that's dictated to him.

Bottom line, he absolutely needs to redshirt at least a year. I think he's negatives are correctable, his motion improved from last year to the game this year, and seems better still in his recent workout vids.

You might get an absolute stud, he might turn into a running gadget type guy.

I think my closest comp is Dak, but he's pretty unique, he has things you wouldn't normally associate with a big athletic QB.

I feel like his negatives are damn near the same as Josh Allen's coming out of college.

Originally posted by English:

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
I've watched nearly all of his games, it's the strangest one I've done. I'd equate it to a basketball eval, one year of great college play and they draft the potential and develop them.

Problem is that in football this extra year he missed would have enabled teams to see if he grew to a level they were comfortable with or not.

His RS Freshman year, he dominated (at FCS level) hardly anyone could tackle him and he threw a great deep ball to WR's teams couldn't keep up with. The offense was very basic (but at least had him under center quite a lot)

He then had one game this year where they tried to showcase his growth as a QB. His drops were tighter and it looks like his throwing motion improved, but he missed a big throw early, and the results were mixed. 2nd half they went back to letting him run to win them the game.

Pros

Footwork, it's been described as "teaching tape" you show other QB's to improve theirs, moves like a ballerina and it's the best I've seen out of this class.

Arm strength, ball gets out with zip and can make "NFL throws" deep outs and digs with ease.

Touch, he throws a beautiful Russell Wilson esqe high arc deep ball, easier to catch harder to defend.

Running ability, would battle with Fields to be the #3 running threat in the league day 1, not the angle busting speed Lamar and Kyler have, but plenty fast enough and can juke or run over you (think early Cam)

Will come back with negatives later, a projection and maybe a comp.

Thanks, good work. Damned useful because I don't think I have seen a single game of him. So, pending your list of negatives, right now from what you say he sounds like a fair option for #12 and sitting behind Garoppolo for a year?

Oh if he's there at 12 they should run to the phone and call it in...I don't think he will be there. I will be shocked if he makes it past Carolina.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

I feel like his negatives are damn near the same as Josh Allen's coming out of college.

Maybe, I think Lance's college accuracy is way higher than Allen's as well.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
I feel like his negatives are damn near the same as Josh Allen's coming out of college.

Maybe, I think Lance's college accuracy is way higher than Allen's as well.

Agree, Allen's issue was also those intermediate throws (accuracy issues). His thrown motion wasn't great (massively improved this off season). Arm talent isn't the same, but Lance has a plus arm for sure. I think it's the strongest in this draft.

I still think Wilson in SF would be the tits. I wouldn't hate lance, he would have to sit for a yr behind Jimmy.

Originally posted by English:

Thanks, good work. Damned useful because I don't think I have seen a single game of him. So, pending your list of negatives, right now from what you say he sounds like a fair option for #12 and sitting behind Garoppolo for a year?

This is beginning to look like my preferred QB situation. Zach Wilson is my favourite QB, but factoring in the cost I think I want Lance.

I can't see any rookie QB taking us further than Jimmy could next year. I mean look at Herbert, shattered nearly all rookie records and they go 7-9.

It's just so hard to swing a huge trade up and then sit the guy.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

You don't draft a QB because "he's the highest ranking guy left." That is how you wind up with Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel or Paxton Lynch.


Out of the top 5 or 6 QBs in this draft, historically the odds are that one or two become franchise QBs, one or two become average starters and two or three are likely to bust.


If Lance is the #1 QB on your board then you do everything you can to get him but if you're wanting to draft him because "he's the highest ranking QB left", then most likely you're going to wind up wasting that pick.

What I meant was that if we wanted a qb the most likely scenario is us drafting Lance as I think the other 3 (Lawrence, Wilson, Fields) would be out of reach. I also dont think we're going qb in rd1 so theres that but if they wanted a qb, I think Lance is the most available if we want him

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
Maybe, I think Lance's college accuracy is way higher than Allen's as well.

Josh Allen had 361 more pass attempts coming out of college than Trey Lance. That's a massive disparity.

I like Lance. I like his tools. He's a very tantalizing player. That said, he's an extremely risky pick because his body of work is minuscule. This dude is boom or bust for sure. Honestly, I don't see Kyle being in love with Lance enough to risk it.

Originally posted by Heroism:

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:

Maybe, I think Lance's college accuracy is way higher than Allen's as well.

Josh Allen had 361 more pass attempts coming out of college than Trey Lance. That's a massive disparity.

I like Lance. I like his tools. He's a very tantalizing player. That said, he's an extremely risky pick because his body of work is minuscule. This dude is boom or bust for sure. Honestly, I don't see Kyle being in love with Lance enough to risk it.

I completely agree, it's a huge leap of faith, but I also think it's the best sell.

They have built Jimmy up as the saviour, and you can tell the team love him.

If you straight up replace him, the new guy has huge shoes to fill, do you lose the team if they don't succeed early?

If you bring in a guy at 12 to sit and develop you sell it as a prudent option, the guy only comes in when he's better, or Jimmy gets hurt again.

Originally posted by Heroism:

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:

Maybe, I think Lance's college accuracy is way higher than Allen's as well.

Josh Allen had 361 more pass attempts coming out of college than Trey Lance. That's a massive disparity.

I like Lance. I like his tools. He's a very tantalizing player. That said, he's an extremely risky pick because his body of work is minuscule. This dude is boom or bust for sure. Honestly, I don't see Kyle being in love with Lance enough to risk it.

I agree about Shanahan not wanting Lance. I'm not a huge fan of Lance myself. The throwing motion, the tendency to tuck and run under pressure, taking a lot of hits when he runs. I don't see him as a fit for us at all

Kyle can't worry about losing the team. He's gotta be cutthroat like the hoodie.

Drafting Trey Lance puts an enormous amount of pressure on Kyle and the front office. This team is about to lose a ton of starters and have holes everywhere. People seem to forget this. Using your 12th pick on someone who doesn't immediately help us in 2021 while needing to sit for an indefinite amount of time is super risky.

Furthermore, I just don't see him as the robotic-type of thrower that Kyle wants. I don't think Kyle will be crazy about him, and if he's not crazy about him, he ain't drafting him.