Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by jacklegniner:
Does anybody know if pff, Jeremiah or whoever has down a breakdown of him. I know he has a strong arm and I love the upside, but can he throw with some touch? Can he loft a pass over the edge to the running back that is wide open. This is what always killed me with Kaep. I thought he would get better at it but he never did. He just riffled every pass like he was a relief pitcher.
Every highlight video of Lance shows him launching it 50 yards to someone wide open or running for a score.
From TDN
PROSPECT SUMMARY - TREY LANCE
Trey Lance has aligned in the pistol, the gun, and has shown the ability to run the offense from under center. He plays the position with good athleticism, as evidenced by his ability to get out of the pocket and extend plays with his legs. Even within the pocket, his mobility and footwork seemed to have developed. Because he is a threat to move the chains with his legs, he needs to be accounted for in the zone-read game. As a passer, he seems to be able to generate velocity on his throws, which is critical for playing in the elements. He has also shown some touch and accuracy down the field on his deep throws. He needs to continue to develop the subtle nuances of the position to continue to maximize his natural talent as a passer.
Ideal Role: Eventual NFL starter.
Scheme Fit: A scheme uniquely designed to accentuate his ability as a passer as well as a runner.
FILM EVALUATION Games watched: Youngstown (2019), UNI (2019), SDSU (2019), UC Davis (2019), Butler (2019), Central Arkansas (2020)
Best Game Studied: Youngstown (2019)
Worst Game Studied: SDSU (2019)
Accuracy: His accuracy has been somewhat inconsistent, even with a clean pocket. He flashes moments of excellent throws (5 route vs. UNI, 8 route vs. Youngstown), but has also had some glaring misses. Cleaning up his footwork and mechanics from the ground up should serve him well. He did complete 66.7% of his passes in 2019. However, he missed a wide-open 9 route in the Central Arkansas game (2020).
Decision Making: Over the course of the games he played in 2019, he set the NCAA record for most attempts (287) without an interception. While there were certainly opportunities for interceptions, he's generally done an excellent job of taking care of the football.
Poise: He has demonstrated excellent poise. When the pocket collapses, he never appears to panic with pressure. He has also responded well to adversity over the course of the game, which was evident in his lone game in 2020.
Progressions: The NDSU offense had moments where it felt like there were only half-field reads for Lance. Whether that's because of limitations within the offense, or his propensity to lock onto primary options at receiver, or simply the success rate that his primary option wins against coverage, it is still something to note.
Release: He has a compact, quick release. He has very good functional strength, which allows him to generate plenty of velocity through his throws. He will still miss high on occasion, but his release has seemingly improved.
Pocket Manipulation: He has made obvious strides from 2019 to 2020 in the area of pocket manipulation. You see him subtly evade pressure and climb the pocket to deliver a downfield throw. Also, he has grown in his ability to hold a safety with his eyes and get back to his primary.
Arm Strength: His arm strength has always been very good. The development has been in his ability to take something off his fastball and throw with touch. He throws a catchable football but has proven that he can throw the 5 route from the opposite hash (2019 UNI game).
Mobility: His mobility in and out of the pocket is one of his strengths. He can buy himself time within the pocket with his footwork. He has also shown the ability to extend plays with his legs when the pocket collapses. He is a legitimate threat to the defense as a runner.
Leadership: His leadership has been excellent. In the Central Arkansas game (2020), his ability to rally his team and respond to adversity was infectious. He injected life into that team that got off to a slow start
Mechanics: His mechanics seem to have somewhat grown in the Central Arkansas game (2020). I did observe some of those missing-high throws that were present in 2019. However, it appears his footwork has become cleaner. The consistency in this area will be key to taking another step and not having so many balls sail high on him.
DJ scouting of Lance
NFL.com analyst and former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah takes a "first look" at some of college football's top players for 2020. This is the 12th in a series of scouting reports that will run throughout the offseason.
When it comes to developing NFL quarterbacks, a few schools jump to the front of my mind: USC, Oklahoma and North Dakota State. Wait, what? Yes, North Dakota State! The Bison have dominated the FCS for the last decade, and their two previous starting quarterbacks emerged as NFL draft picks. After being selected No. 2 overall by the Philadelphia Eagles in 2016, Carson Wentz has emerged as a top-tier NFL starter. His successor at NDSU, Easton Stick, was picked by the Los Angeles Chargers in the fifth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. I believe their current starter, Trey Lance, has the potential to be the best of the bunch. Here's my scouting report on the redshirt sophomore.
Height, weight: 6-foot-3, 224 pounds (school measurements).
2019 statistics: 192 of 287 (66.9 percent) for 2,786 yards, 28 TDs and 0 INTs; 169 carries for 1,100 yards (6.5 average), 14 TDs.
Game tape watched: Delaware (Sept. 14, 2019), UC Davis (Sept. 21, 2019), Nicholls (Dec. 7, 2019).
What I liked: When I evaluate quarterbacks, I try to narrow my focus to these five key areas: poise, accuracy, decision-making, play-making ability and toughness. After studying the aforementioned three games, I can confidently state that Lance is off the charts in all five areas. Let's look at each of them individually:
Poise: This is the most important trait for a quarterback, in my opinion. How do you perform when under pressure or in critical moments? When everything around you speeds up, do you have the ability to slow down and remain calm? Lance never looks rattled. He calmly and smoothly sidesteps pocket pressure while keeping his eyes downfield. He excels on third downs and in the red zone, always making the proper decision.
Accuracy: I say this all the time: Do not get caught up in completion percentage when evaluating accuracy. Lance completed nearly 67 percent of his passes, which is impressive, but the tape showed he was even more accurate than that number indicates. His ball placement is excellent. He really trusts his eyes and throws with anticipation, which allows his receivers better opportunities to run after the catch. He can layer the ball in the middle of the field (over linebackers and under safeties) and he excels on bucket throws (deep balls over the top).
Decision-making: I've never evaluated a draft prospect with this stat line: 28 touchdowns, 0 interceptions. You read that correctly. He had zero interceptions. When I saw that number, I expected to find an overly cautious player on tape. That wasn't the case, though. He is selectively aggressive. When there are big-play opportunities, he lets it rip and will fit the ball in tight quarters. However, he's very content to take his checkdown options if nothing emerges down the field. He makes full-field reads, and he's very quick to get to his third option before delivering the ball to the proper location.
Play-making ability: Here are the two questions I ask myself when evaluating this skill/trait: 1) Can you make something happen when the play breaks down? 2) Can you use your legs to pick up yards when the defense provides you with those opportunities? Lance can do both, and he does it effortlessly. He has outstanding instincts to avoid and create from the pocket and excels on designed quarterback options/runs. He's very athletic and generates big plays because of it.
Toughness: I noticed Lance's toughness mostly when he was used as a runner. He ran over a safety on the way to the end zone in the UC Davis game. He's very strong/sturdy, and he doesn't shy away from contact. I saw the same things from Wentz during his time in Fargo.
Where he needs to improve: More than anything else, Lance just needs to play more snaps. He has started for only one season. I was really looking forward to watching him play against a very talented Oregon defense this fall, but that game has been canceled. The lack of big-time competition might bother some evaluators, but I'm comfortable with what I've seen thus far. Aside from that, there is one mechanical thing he can adjust and improve on. Occasionally, he will fall off the mound on throws to his left. His front side opens up too early and his placement can be affected. That is very easily correctable.
Biggest takeaway: I was shocked at the maturity in Lance's game. It's uncommon to see a redshirt senior demonstrate this type of control and mastery of a system. Lance was a redshirt freshman! He does a wonderful job staying in the moment and executing. I didn't expect to see such a polished player at this stage of his development.
He reminds me of: Andrew Luck. I know Luck is a little bit bigger, but they are similar athletes and they both played with a maturity beyond their age at the collegiate level. I remember watching Luck run over defenders. I also remember being so impressed with his ability to execute on key plays in every game. I see the same things when I study Lance. More than anything else, these are two guys who exude confidence on the field. They are fearless, but they avoid being reckless. That's a very delicate balance. Luck was on his way to a Hall of Fame career before shocking the football world and retiring a year ago. I don't have quite the same grade on Lance, but he could get there with continued growth and development.
Thanks! I'm with you on NY on the Zach Wilson bandwagon. With Wilson it's easy to see that he's got it. The 2 things I worry about with Wilson are will his body hold up if he takes a beating and now how much it will now cost to get him. The Jets might be so in love with him that they never even let another team have that chance.
I thought I heard Shanny liked Josh Allen in college. Lance seems similar. I like what I see in him so far but I'm waiting for a good video breakdown. JT O'Sullivan did one but I wasn't that impressed with the breakdown. Jeremiah's analysis is at least comforting.
My biggest fear is that we draft a QB and they can't hit the easy throws that Shanny schemes wide open. Like the very first play from scrimmage against the eagles this year where Mullens misses a wide open Kyle Juszczyk.
