Trey Lance QB NDSU

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
That strategy didn't work so well with Mahomes, Watson and Beathard. Kyle needs to re-evaluate his QB evaluation criteria. At least half of all QBs can learn how to run play-action. Not to many can learn how to quickly go through progressions.

It's funny, you say that strategy didn't work for kyle with Mahomes and Watson both of whom were regarded as QBs that couldn't go through progressions...beathard was someone who ran a pro-style offense and went through progressions. Oops

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
That strategy didn't work so well with Mahomes, Watson and Beathard. Kyle needs to re-evaluate his QB evaluation criteria. At least half of all QBs can learn how to run play-action. Not to many can learn how to quickly go through progressions.

It's funny, you say that strategy didn't work for kyle with Mahomes and Watson both of whom were regarded as QBs that couldn't go through progressions...beathard was someone who ran a pro-style offense and went through progressions. Oops

Whoever said that about Mahomes didn't watch him enough. I saw him go through projections and do so quickly many times. Can't say if it's true about Watson, as I didn't watch him.

But note that I said quickly go through progressions. Mahomes did that quite often. Not sure where that criticism came from, unless people just assumed that the scheme had no progressions, which is false.

Even Walter Football had "can work through progressions" on their scouting report as a strength:

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2017pmahomes.php

"Along with accuracy, a key for NFL quarterbacks is working through progressions and reading the field. Mahomes has developed some field vision to work off his primary read and work through progressions. He finds open receivers after his primary read and knows where his check-down receivers are. Mahomes shows some development as he is very good at manipulating coverage with his vision toward safeties and moving defenders with pump fakes."

Weaknesses were related to his risk taking, his footwork and habit of abandoning mechanics (which would turn mortal QBs into turnover machines, but for Mahomes it sometimes led to the spectacular and sometimes led to under thrown or over thrown deep balls).

Some of these criticisms in retrospect are funny: "needs to take more checkdowns"; "throws too many passes back across the field"; I say funny because it turns out his absurd rocket launcher allows for him to get away with it most times.

It's just not a good idea to compare anyone to Mahomes. There is no one else like him.

But using the same source, here's Trey Lance on progressions:

"Slow to work through progressions."
https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2021TLance.php

"Lance has issues seeing the field, as he can lock onto his primary read, take off running when his first read is covered, and be slow to look off and work through his progressions. Lance has to speed up the process for looking through his potential targets in the NFL."

The same source sees what I see, that Mahomes was capable of doing it and Lance needs work. Slam Walter Football if you want, but the fact is they were right about Mahomes in this case, at least with respect to his strengths and weaknesses, and they see what I see with Lance, so I can't hate them at this point.

But really it's kind of academic: Lance isn't falling to 12. He's got too good of an arm to make it that far. And in fact I doubt any of Lawrence, Fields, or Lance make it past 7.

But again, don't get me wrong! I am not saying he's going to be a bust! I don't think he'll be bad. I just don't think he'll be game changing, not unless he develops a new skill set.

Most importantly, Shanahan could protect his weaknesses the same way he does Jimmy's. But the difference is, that won't involve eliminating the deep ball. Because Lance can hit it. And to me that makes him an upgrade over Jimmy except on those situations where the QB is forced to read through the entire field. But as I said before, it's not like Jimmy is some expert at it. I do believe that Lance would make the team better, and I'm not entirely convinced it wouldn't be in 2021.

But as I said, he's not going to be there at 12. Not a chance.

I suppose if we trade up he's in play. But before I can support that as a fan (not that it matters), I'll need to see him do the lightning quick processing/reaction/progressions thing more. To me that's more important than anything, unless the guy is such a ridiculous talent he can routinely run around for 7 seconds and throw to a wide open guy on third and 12. That's what would make him worth the massive investment a trade up would require.

But that doesn't seem to be Lance either. I see more of a guy who would thrive under designed runs or scrambles after seeing the defense turn his back (like Kaepernick did) than someone who does magician-like improvisation. In fact I see a lot of Kaepernick in terms of style, except Lance has better touch, is thicker, and more accurate deep. If that's wrong, let me know. I've not seen him run around playing back yard ball. Mostly I've seen him take off

So, there is no doubt you could win with him, and I think this team would be better with him than Jimmy. But taking him in the first with a trade up really is drafting on potential, and not the potential that he'll clean up recklessness or bad habits, but that he'll develop an entirely new skill set, which to me is a riskier gamble. Most guys develop by refining their skill set, not developing completely new ones.

Is he worth a first round pick? Yes.

Is he worth two first round picks and a second or third? That I'm not so sure. And I absolutely did not feel the same way about Mahomes. Mahomes to me when I watched his college stuff was worth two entire draft classes. No one does what he does, and no one in college did either. So, again, I don't think it's productive to compare anyone to Mahomes, not unless they're gonna be throwing 60 yard bombs off their back foot like they were flipping a frisby.

Oh yeah, the Kap comparison was in running style, and that was just in comparison to Russell Wilson's circus show behind the line. That's where the comparison ends. His release is world's faster than Kap, and he's a much better deep ball thrower and knows when to use touch.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Oh yeah, the Kap comparison was in running style, and that was just in comparison to Russell Wilson's circus show behind the line. That's where the comparison ends. His release is world's faster than Kap, and he's a much better deep ball thrower and knows when to use touch.

How does he react to pressure?

Does he bail on pass and tries to run out of it most of the time? Saw that a few times pop up on his film

Originally posted by Mertonschickendance:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Oh yeah, the Kap comparison was in running style, and that was just in comparison to Russell Wilson's circus show behind the line. That's where the comparison ends. His release is world's faster than Kap, and he's a much better deep ball thrower and knows when to use touch.

How does he react to pressure?

Does he bail on pass and tries to run out of it most of the time? Saw that a few times pop up on his film

From what I'm seeing so far, he's inconsistent. Sometimes he'll run when there actually isn't pressure that will reach him, while there's an anticipatory throw to be made. Other times he'll climb the pocket and make a great throw. I think the tendency is that if the throw is on a comeback route or to the outside, he's more likely to throw it. But that's based on not nearly enough watching to say.

So, from what I'VE seen, the answer is that he'll sometimes see ghosts and run when he shouldn't (but to be fair he still makes the play with his legs), but other times he'll climb the pocket like a pro and deliver the ball.

It's hard to say, because he's not consistent.

But I'll say this: he will be better than Jimmy.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
But using the same source, here's Trey Lance on progressions:

"Slow to work through progressions."
https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2021TLance.php

"Lance has issues seeing the field, as he can lock onto his primary read, take off running when his first read is covered, and be slow to look off and work through his progressions. Lance has to speed up the process for looking through his potential targets in the NFL."

The same source sees what I see, that Mahomes was capable of doing it and Lance needs work. Slam Walter Football if you want, but the fact is they were right about Mahomes in this case, at least with respect to his strengths and weaknesses, and they see what I see with Lance, so I can't hate them at this point.

But really it's kind of academic: Lance isn't falling to 12. He's got too good of an arm to make it that far. And in fact I doubt any of Lawrence, Fields, or Lance make it past 7.

Walter football is horrendous, of course he made one read and took off a ton THAT WAS THE OFFENSE, you can clearly see, half field high lo read, take off if not there. You can tell by how quickly everyone becomes blockers, that it's by design.

Now was there other times outside the initial offensive call where you'd have rather he took on a throw over running it, sure.

The thing with Lance is everything that you want to see on tape is there, just inconsistent and not enough of it. When you consider this is 16 games as a RS Freshman and 1 glorified exhibition, can you really be that surprised?

There's people expecting him to look as polished as a bloke who sat for 3 years learning a pro offense!

I mean look. Jimmy has a fast release, but so does Lance (not on Jimmy's level, but few are).

Jimmy can run play-action, but so can Lance.

Lance can throw a beautiful deep ball at any place on the field. Jimmy cannot.

But Jimmy is better at quick processing (but not much better!).

So ultimately for me it comes down to this: a defense playing Jimmy knows they don't have to cover the whole field. A defense playing Lance knows they do, and they also know they have to watch for the run. This is a no brainer: If Lance isn't better than Jimmy today, he's going to be before Jimmy's contract is up. If he's at 12 I would seriously consider taking him. Who else is there? Jones, maybe (maybe...). That's another discussion and a tough call for me. I lean Jones on the short term, but IF Lance beats the odds and develops that lightning quick processing, he'll be elite.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
But using the same source, here's Trey Lance on progressions:

"Slow to work through progressions."
https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2021TLance.php

"Lance has issues seeing the field, as he can lock onto his primary read, take off running when his first read is covered, and be slow to look off and work through his progressions. Lance has to speed up the process for looking through his potential targets in the NFL."

The same source sees what I see, that Mahomes was capable of doing it and Lance needs work. Slam Walter Football if you want, but the fact is they were right about Mahomes in this case, at least with respect to his strengths and weaknesses, and they see what I see with Lance, so I can't hate them at this point.

But really it's kind of academic: Lance isn't falling to 12. He's got too good of an arm to make it that far. And in fact I doubt any of Lawrence, Fields, or Lance make it past 7.

Walter football is horrendous, of course he made one read and took off a ton THAT WAS THE OFFENSE, you can clearly see, half field high lo read, take off if not there. You can tell by how quickly everyone becomes blockers, that it's by design.

Now was there other times outside the initial offensive call where you'd have rather he took on a throw over running it, sure.

The thing with Lance is everything that you want to see on tape is there, just inconsistent and not enough of it. When you consider this is 16 games as a RS Freshman and 1 glorified exhibition, can you really be that surprised?

There's people expecting him to look as polished as a bloke who sat for 3 years learning a pro offense!

Walter football was right on a point by point basis with Mahomes, and most the people who say it's garbage were not. This forum's history attests to that. Attacking a source when the source is right just because it's been wrong before (allegedly) is not a good way to make an argument.

Now, I disagree with you about their offense. Tell me, is "take off and run" what Lance should have done here?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyixbVdItsw&t=3m48s

People say the same thing about Shanahan's scheme, and it's actually because Jimmy sucks and they don't know it. There are obvious times when it's one read. That isn't the case all the time, and certainly not here.

SIDE NOTE - If Walter Football is horrendous at QB evaluation, then so is Kyle Shanahan. In fact Shanahan is worse.

But I'll give that he's VERY inexperienced, which means he may actually have the mental capacity to have real field vision but just hasn't had the basic reps to develop it.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
Walter football is horrendous, of course he made one read and took off a ton THAT WAS THE OFFENSE, you can clearly see, half field high lo read, take off if not there. You can tell by how quickly everyone becomes blockers, that it's by design.

Now was there other times outside the initial offensive call where you'd have rather he took on a throw over running it, sure.

The thing with Lance is everything that you want to see on tape is there, just inconsistent and not enough of it. When you consider this is 16 games as a RS Freshman and 1 glorified exhibition, can you really be that surprised?

There's people expecting him to look as polished as a bloke who sat for 3 years learning a pro offense!

Thank you....when scouting it's about what they could be capable of doing just as much as what they've already done.

and I agree Walterfootball is poop.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
Walter football is horrendous, of course he made one read and took off a ton THAT WAS THE OFFENSE, you can clearly see, half field high lo read, take off if not there. You can tell by how quickly everyone becomes blockers, that it's by design.

Now was there other times outside the initial offensive call where you'd have rather he took on a throw over running it, sure.

The thing with Lance is everything that you want to see on tape is there, just inconsistent and not enough of it. When you consider this is 16 games as a RS Freshman and 1 glorified exhibition, can you really be that surprised?

There's people expecting him to look as polished as a bloke who sat for 3 years learning a pro offense!

Thank you....when scouting it's about what they could be capable of doing just as much as what they've already done.

and I agree Walterfootball is poop.

What do you guys base that on? Their scouting of Mahomes seems on point to me, almost line per line. And if I understood it correctly, a lot of what they publish is just relaying what NFL scouts tell them (or so they constantly claim).

Anyway, it appears that your argument is that Lance DOESN'T actually hesitate or bail on the play ONLY because WF says they do. Or that WF is wrong ONLY because they point out the weaknesses.

I saw it with my own eyes, and the response is, "WELL THEIR OFFENSE IS ONE READ AND RUN," which isn't really based on any evidence that I've seen. On that link I posted, JTO doesn't seem to agree. Is he also poop? I don't think so. I think he's one of the best of public QB evaluators.

DISCLAIMER: this post is not about Lance's viability as a first round pick. It's about what your justification is for slamming WF and why my eyes are apparently lying to me when I see him do exactly what they say he does. Lance is someone you draft with the hope that he'll develop. Which means we ought to expect certain weaknesses. So WF is poop for pointing them out?

Moreover, the end of 49erBigMac's post seems to contradict the beginning. First he says Lance does not in fact struggle a bit on moving through progressions quickly, but the latter part of the post says, "Well he's even less experienced than most other QBs, OF COURSE he's going to be raw."

The latter is, of course, a reasonable position. He IS inexperienced and therefore ought to be raw. A draft for him is indeed a draft for possibly elite potential, as you have said. But that doesn't mean his current state does not include the weaknesses listed by WF, which I must again note, I see many of them too.

I'm poop, San Diego?

Anyway the guy has elite physical traits.

Which, of course, Walter "poop" Football points out. ;)

"

• Tremendous skill set
• Powerful arm
• Can fire fastballs into tight windows
• Arm strength to challenge defenses downfield
• Throws a good deep ball
• Impressive deep-ball precision"

ALL POOP ^^^

More poop:

"As a passer, Lance definitely has next-level ability. He has a strong arm capable of making all the throws for the pro level. Lance shows the ability to fire fastballs to the sideline and has no problem airing out deep balls. Overall, Lance has good accuracy, and his deep-ball precision is very impressive. He consistently lofts passes downfield to lead his receivers over the top of coverage. Lance also shows the ability to function in the quick passing game in the short part of the field, firing some bullets to move the ball. "

Walter Football seems to believe there is a lot to like about Lance. And again, I find myself agreeing. He has a lot of tools. I mainly have one major problem with him. But as I've said, QBs with his tools can succeed despite not having that one thing.

I don't value much of anything from Walterfootball...good or bad.

too each their own. I won't use their evaluations

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Anyway the guy has elite physical traits.

Which, of course, Walter "poop" Football points out. ;)

"

• Tremendous skill set
• Powerful arm
• Can fire fastballs into tight windows
• Arm strength to challenge defenses downfield
• Throws a good deep ball
• Impressive deep-ball precision"

ALL POOP ^^^

More poop:

"As a passer, Lance definitely has next-level ability. He has a strong arm capable of making all the throws for the pro level. Lance shows the ability to fire fastballs to the sideline and has no problem airing out deep balls. Overall, Lance has good accuracy, and his deep-ball precision is very impressive. He consistently lofts passes downfield to lead his receivers over the top of coverage. Lance also shows the ability to function in the quick passing game in the short part of the field, firing some bullets to move the ball. "

Walter Football seems to believe there is a lot to like about Lance. And again, I find myself agreeing. He has a lot of tools. I mainly have one major problem with him. But as I've said, QBs with his tools can succeed despite not having that one thing.

WF analysis won't fly here. We prefer to get our analyses from random dudes on twitter.