Originally posted by thl408:
The stat is trying to show how well the QB performs when the first read is covered. It's interesting but I don't trust PFF to know which WR is the first read.
I know this might be a hard concept to grasp but there are people that know which read is first in the progression based on the concept the offense is running.
Of course there are people that have an idea. I have an idea myself of what's the first read because on many route combinations the progressions are built into it. I just don't trust the PFF guys to. If you trust them then good for you.
No reason not to trust them. They do this for a living. But because people prejudge things and when that doesn't match up with the numbers they always go with their feelings.
Not sure what you're referring to. I don't have some preconceived idea of how well any of these QBs function when they move past their first read. When the PFF_Jeff guy puts up stats that are specific to the 49ers I've found some of it to be wrong. First one that comes to mind is he once said Alex Boone hadn't given up a pressure in a span of several weeks, and I decided to fact check him. I saw Alex Boone give up a two QB hits in that time span.
Another is how they said Trent Taylor did so well on slant routes and they gave him credit for 3 TDs on slant routes (something like that). I went back and checked and that was wrong. Not to get too deep into my belief in PFF but I trust them with objective stats, not subjective stats. Either way thanks for posting the tweets, no matter what I think of them it's still interesting.
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Why I like Lance best:
When Lance fails to see a guy, it's usually (to what I've seen) because his eyes are glued downfield. I'm not seeing lots of touchdowns left on the field with Lance.
I do see some concerns; like Lance will see the target, and then dance around because he wants a better passing lane. But I think that's easier to coach out of him than this issue for Fields.
Unless this is just scheme, and Fields was supposed to completely ignore the wide open touchdown on the corner here.
That is a terrible play to evaluate him "ignoring a wide open touchdown." The center gets pushed back 5 yards into his face just before he becomes wide open. Fields actually gets through his progressions here. He looks towards his left first and the corner closest to the sideline has yet to break towards the LOS.That is the corner who blew the coverage. In Fields' defense, that may have been designed to be his first read. He wasn't open when he first looked at him. There isn't enough time to go back to that read by the time he becomes wide open because of the pressure in his face.
That isn't me. That's J. T. O'Sullivan, Ph. D, who for some reason, despite being among the best there is at this, having a doctorate, and playing in professional football for almost 10 years, is "garbage."
Source:
Side note: the ball should have been thrown the second the corner starting running down. This is a basic concept everyone from high school to the NFL runs, and most of the time, that corner and the will are who you're keying on. There was plenty of time to throw that.
Oh yeah: he ranks Fields over Jones, but of course he's wrong here because it's a criticism of Fields.
Nobody is saying you can't critique that play. What we are saying is you can't say Lance is better than Fields because he doesn't do this. Like Lance has never missed an open guy and Fields does it all the time.
It's one play and we don't know how the reads are.
But at worst, he misses some reads. Does anybody think they can't fix that with a year of sitting I'm Shannahans QB room? That's easier to fix than throw harder or run faster.
I've been critical of Fields, but his Bama tape made me think differently. I heard DJ talking about that too at his Pro Day. In that game you get to see a little of everything from Fields. He was under pressure early and was getting bullied in the pocket. He started using his legs a little and found some room to make throws. Then, they went to the RPO and play-action and it opened things up a little more. His WRs dropped everything that game and they still moved the ball on offense.
Bama's offense was just too much for them. No one is going to put up 50 points on Bama to keep pace.
Mac on the other hand, was like a video game. Count to 5, then throw deep to a wide open WR. He's so hard to evaluate because he had Smith, Waddle or Metchie wide open half the time. His highlight videos are basically an indictment of how dominant Smith was. Couple that with the best RB in the nation standing in the backfield and it was just open season.
Mac at #3 makes my stomach hurt. A mobile QB in Kyle's offense makes me very optimistic.
Originally posted by Jcool:
No reason not to trust them. They do this for a living. But because people prejudge things and when that doesn't match up with the numbers they always go with their feelings.
Oh, there is a myriad of reasons not to trust them. Look no further than their grades for Fred Warner in 2019 and 2020. They had him graded as a backup LB through most of 2019, but once they realized the league recognized Fred Warner was fantastic, they began to drastically change their grades for him, especially in 2020. Anyone with a brain realizes Fred didn't go from a backup player in 2019 to an elite LB in 2020. The dude was already playing at a high level in 2019. PFF clearly wasn't watching the tape.
I have no doubt PFF makes s**t up. Maybe not all of their grades are made up, but there are 100% fabricated grades mixed in.
Bingo. Consider the age and knowledge of those asked to essentially count data points based on PFF's own operational definitions. And that's the foundation of ALL the work after that...their advanced stats. All based on counting points by a 20 year old entry level Madden fan with ADHD and a lot of distractions in mom's basement.
Originally posted by strickac:
I've been critical of Fields, but his Bama tape made me think differently. I heard DJ talking about that too at his Pro Day. In that game you get to see a little of everything from Fields. He was under pressure early and was getting bullied in the pocket. He started using his legs a little and found some room to make throws. Then, they went to the RPO and play-action and it opened things up a little more. His WRs dropped everything that game and they still moved the ball on offense.
Bama's offense was just too much for them. No one is going to put up 50 points on Bama to keep pace.
Mac on the other hand, was like a video game. Count to 5, then throw deep to a wide open WR. He's so hard to evaluate because he had Smith, Waddle or Metchie wide open half the time. His highlight videos are basically an indictment of how dominant Smith was. Couple that with the best RB in the nation standing in the backfield and it was just open season.
Mac at #3 makes my stomach hurt. A mobile QB in Kyle's offense makes me very optimistic.
I vote Fields but that doesn't mean we need to crap on Jones.
When you are good at something you make it look easy and people who are watching dont appreciate how you got from point A to point B.
Jones finds the mis matches and knows where to go pre snap. That is his QB super power.
His targets look wide open bc he is manipulating the defense to make it happen.
The most common clip is the deep bomb to Waddle v Texas A&M. If you watch film break down the reason Waddle is open is bc Jones absolutely abuses the safety with his pump fake.
Originally posted by strickac:
I've been critical of Fields, but his Bama tape made me think differently. I heard DJ talking about that too at his Pro Day. In that game you get to see a little of everything from Fields. He was under pressure early and was getting bullied in the pocket. He started using his legs a little and found some room to make throws. Then, they went to the RPO and play-action and it opened things up a little more. His WRs dropped everything that game and they still moved the ball on offense.
Bama's offense was just too much for them. No one is going to put up 50 points on Bama to keep pace.
Mac on the other hand, was like a video game. Count to 5, then throw deep to a wide open WR. He's so hard to evaluate because he had Smith, Waddle or Metchie wide open half the time. His highlight videos are basically an indictment of how dominant Smith was. Couple that with the best RB in the nation standing in the backfield and it was just open season.
Mac at #3 makes my stomach hurt. A mobile QB in Kyle's offense makes me very optimistic.
I vote Fields but that doesn't mean we need to crap on Jones.
When you are good at something you make it look easy and people who are watching dont appreciate how you got from point A to point B.
Jones finds the mis matches and knows where to go pre snap. That is his QB super power.
His targets look wide open bc he is manipulating the defense to make it happen.
The most common clip is the deep bomb to Waddle v Texas A&M. If you watch film break down the reason Waddle is open is bc Jones absolutely abuses the safety with his pump fake.
Impressive. Someone watched the proper videos on the nuances of the QB position. I totally agree with your overall premise too.
Originally posted by Jcool:
No reason not to trust them. They do this for a living. But because people prejudge things and when that doesn't match up with the numbers they always go with their feelings.
Oh, there is a myriad of reasons not to trust them. Look no further than their grades for Fred Warner in 2019 and 2020. They had him graded as a backup LB through most of 2019, but once they realized the league recognized Fred Warner was fantastic, they began to drastically change their grades for him, especially in 2020. Anyone with a brain realizes Fred didn't go from a backup player in 2019 to an elite LB in 2020. The dude was already playing at a high level in 2019. PFF clearly wasn't watching the tape.
I have no doubt PFF makes s**t up. Maybe not all of their grades are made up, but there are 100% fabricated grades mixed in.
I remember this. It made me think I was overrating Warner when PFF had him rated as playing at a backup LB level. I think he was being graded as being in the high 50s. So I just thought I was being a homer and was seeing what I wanted to see, Warner buzzing around making plays. Apparently he went from backup level LB in 2019 to 1st team All Pro 2020.
Anyway, Justin Fields.
Originally posted by thl408:
The stat is trying to show how well the QB performs when the first read is covered. It's interesting but I don't trust PFF to know which WR is the first read.
I know this might be a hard concept to grasp but there are people that know which read is first in the progression based on the concept the offense is running.
Originally posted by thl408:
Not sure what you're referring to. I don't have some preconceived idea of how well any of these QBs function when they move past their first read. When the PFF_Jeff guy puts up stats that are specific to the 49ers I've found some of it to be wrong. First one that comes to mind is he once said Alex Boone hadn't given up a pressure in a span of several weeks, and I decided to fact check him. I saw Alex Boone give up a two QB hits in that time span.
Another is how they said Trent Taylor did so well on slant routes and they gave him credit for 3 TDs on slant routes (something like that). I went back and checked and that was wrong. Not to get too deep into my belief in PFF but I trust them with objective stats, not subjective stats. Either way thanks for posting the tweets, no matter what I think of them it's still interesting.
I mean is anyone 100% right all the time? No. And that includes you and me. In the end its humans watching film and putting grades on each play. But some act like they are just making up things and they are a waste of time. And 95% of those people are just old school and don't want to be told numbers are telling them what they are seeing might not be correct. This isn't a knock against you since you post good content. Just a more general reaction to the PFF bashers.
Originally posted by thl408:
The stat is trying to show how well the QB performs when the first read is covered. It's interesting but I don't trust PFF to know which WR is the first read.
I know this might be a hard concept to grasp but there are people that know which read is first in the progression based on the concept the offense is running.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Bingo. Consider the age and knowledge of those asked to essentially count data points based on PFF's own operational definitions. And that's the foundation of ALL the work after that...their advanced stats. All based on counting points by a 20 year old entry level Madden fan with ADHD and a lot of distractions in mom's basement.
Ironic coming from someone commenting on a 49ers message board.
Justin Fields, aside from Trevor, offers the best mix of proven track record across multiple seasons, ability to handle being in the media spotlight and that scrutiny along the a big arm and athleticism along with very good stats and success.
Kyle's offense is made to target individual defenders and put them in conflict. Do you play the run up the middle or the end around, do you cover Juszczyk or fight past him try to stop the run, do you try to beat Kittle's block or cover him?
If we're keeping Jimmy around, it's very underwhelming to go for Mac, to simply train him up after spending 3 1st on him, to be what, a cheaper Jimmy?
We have the opportunity to take one of the other guys, who can ask so many other questions of a defense with their better arms/deep balls and abilities to run. The run game would become supercharged. I could see Fields rushing 5-6 times a game for a free 40-50 yards at least. We've had other teams QBs absolutely gash us and we could finally join the party.
Taking Mac is a bit like drafting Jahlil Okafor in the NBA. All the young QBs who are thriving have a good deep ball and the ability to scramble. Mac could be a good pick, but he'll have less margin for error than the other prospects who can threaten deep passes better than him and can take off for cheap yardage, if the receivers are covered. Brady/Brees are exceptions not the rule.
Originally posted by okdkid:
"He mostly throws to his first read!"
"ok but was that guy open?"
"...yes"
"ok did he compete the pass?"
"...yes"
????
wtf are we even talking about
And when McGlinchey gets bulldozed then what? When Aaron Donald blasts through the OL then what? When Ramsey locks up his first read...then what?
cosell was just talking about Jones and for all the heady play...he can't makes plays off script. He said he's just incapable of doing it..The moment a play breaks down we're f**ked all the same...haven't we seen this movie already lol?
Originally posted by strickac:
I've been critical of Fields, but his Bama tape made me think differently. I heard DJ talking about that too at his Pro Day. In that game you get to see a little of everything from Fields. He was under pressure early and was getting bullied in the pocket. He started using his legs a little and found some room to make throws. Then, they went to the RPO and play-action and it opened things up a little more. His WRs dropped everything that game and they still moved the ball on offense.
Bama's offense was just too much for them. No one is going to put up 50 points on Bama to keep pace.
Mac on the other hand, was like a video game. Count to 5, then throw deep to a wide open WR. He's so hard to evaluate because he had Smith, Waddle or Metchie wide open half the time. His highlight videos are basically an indictment of how dominant Smith was. Couple that with the best RB in the nation standing in the backfield and it was just open season.
Mac at #3 makes my stomach hurt. A mobile QB in Kyle's offense makes me very optimistic.
Completely agree with you on that Bama game. I was more impressed with him for that game compared to his absolutely dominant Clemson game. Dude had multiple broken ribs, from what I've heard, came back in and still dominated. Could've done what a lot of projected first round prospects do and sat the rest out especially after the injury. Refreshing after losing your QB for the entire season for a high ankle sprain. There were discussions about a QB "carrying" the team, stark difference with Jimmy and Fields in that category
