A draft crush of mine, I'm starting to see his name pop up more in the media as of late, and so I figured it's a good time to start a thread as more users here will be becoming familiar with him.
Davis Mills, QB
Stanford Cardinal - #15 - Quarterback
Class: Senior
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 225 lbs.
Draft Projection: Late 3rd - Early 5th
NFL Ceiling: Carson Palmer
History: #1 Quarterback Recruit in the nation (same recruiting class as Tua). 5-Star prospect listed as Pro-Style QB.
Positives:
+ Arm Strength
+ Works through progressions high to low and utilizes checkdown appropriately
+ Throws with anticipation working in a timing based NFL-style system
+ Shanny Specific: Tough, will stand in there and throw.
Getting an opportunity because of an injury, Mills was talented enough to eventually steal the starting position from KJ Costello who went into 2019 as a red hot up and coming QB prospect in his own right. The first thing that stands out is his arm strength. He posseses a plus NFL arm, and can generate a lot of velocity on his throws without appearing to have to work too hard for it. Can "throw on a rope." I don't recall seeing him throw from many different arm slot angles, but he has a quick release, and can hit tight window throws, outbreaking routes, and boundary throws from the far hash. Can also take some zip off of it and throw with some touch. This is 1st round caliber arm talent.
As a student of Stanford, it is safe to assume he's a "smart" guy. Now, being smart in the context of academics can either mean an ability to retain information and/or an ability to quickly understand and process information, with the latter obviously being more important for quarterback play. Can't know for sure what it means for Mills, but he has put multiple examples on film of his ability to make pre and post snap reads and to go through 3+ look progressions and make the correct throw, in a WCO none the less. He operates well within the timing based scheme with an ability to throw with anticipation and throw receivers open.
You don't see a ton of off schedule play making, and he's not a threat as a dynamic runner, but he is athletic and heady enough to maneuver inside and outside of the pocket, and he obviously has prototypical size, strong enough to break a tackle and pick up yardage when needed. His feel in the pocket looks advanced and natural considering how little he has played, and he has plenty of functional athleticism. Will step up in the pocket, and continue to look down field. Generally knows his checkdown or hot read. He generally throws with good accuracy, and flashes instances of excellent ball placement. He has the arm talent to continue to improve in this area as well.
Negatives:
- Injury concerns
- Inexperience
- Sloppy footwork under pressure
- Shanny Specific: Not a ton of play action with his back to the defense.
The majority of Mills weaknesses stem from inexperience, as he simply has not played many games. Thankfully, the majority are also correctable.
His overall lower half mechanics can use some work in general, and while I like his wide base, his weight transfer looks odd at times (especially in highschool). Even tho Mills is effective at moving around in the pocket to avoid rushers, his footwork tends to break down and get sloppy when facing pressure, and his accuracy can really suffer as a result. He is more effective throwing from the pocket than while running from it.
I'm not entirely sure, but it looks like he is primarily asked to make half field reads. I have seen moments where he makes it to the 3rd or 4th read in a progression, and so we know he can do it, but you also see a lot of one read throws, a few forced balls over the middle, and a few stare downs. Hard to judge him TOO harshly on some of these, because we simply don't know what is asked of him. For instance, there are moments where he identified a mismatch presnap, such as a LB in a disadvantageous coverage situation, and he sticks with that read when there was a safer throw to make elsewhere, regardless of if his actual read/throw was successful or not. Also, if the first read is open, is there any reason to continue reading the field? There are definitely enough instances however, combined with his inexperience, to list it as a genuine concern. He definitely struggles with more elaborate zone defenses, and doesn't do enough to look defenders off with his eyes. He needs to do a better job of protecting the ball at times, though, sometimes that is the double edged sword of rythym offenses, and I'd much rather throw on time and with anticipation then have to wait for a receiver to come cleanly and clearly open before pulling the trigger.
Lastly, he does have a history of knee issues, though they do appear to be fully behind him at this point.
Overall: High upside developmental pick without the glaring physical or mental flaws of most mid round quarterbacks. Ideal scenario if SF decides to run it back with Jimmy G. Starter potential within 3 years, but very high likelihood of at least developing into a solid backup QB. Actually compares quite favorably to Jimmy, but with more upside given the significantly stronger arm and young age allowing time to improve in the areas of struggle that both he and Jimmy share. However, definitely not ready to take the job from Jimmy in year 1, and likely not in year 2. I personally would draft with the intention of a backup, cross my fingers for development, but look ahead to Carson Strong in next year's class.
). Real tough kid, but yeah, the injuries are definitely a concern. I love how he reads the field.
