49ers (way too early) 1st Round Draft Logic

The draft order isn't set, the salary cap hasn't been established, we're nearly two months away from the combine or FA but we can start to get an idea of how the 49ers can put together their draft board.

This team has needs major needs at DE, OL, CB, S and, of course, QB. Luckily, this draft is shaping up to be exceptionally deep at all of those positions.

To me, the first round is about impact and value, which means the only positions worth spending a 1st round pick on are: QB, OT, DL and, in rare cases, WR. I believe you can find All Pro players at CB, S, LB, RB, TE and IOL in rounds 2-7; the first round is about impact players (not those positions correspond to the highest paid players in the NFL).

So, the Venn Diagram of 49ers needs vs. impact 1st round positions implies that the 49ers should either target a QB or a DE. We will hear the names of Caleb Farley, Patrick Surtain II and many others, but based on how I believe the 49ers value certain positions I don't believe they will ever draft a CB in round 1 unless that player is Jalen Ramsey.

Rather, I'm entirely convinced the 49ers will pursue one of these three paths:
1) fall in love with a QB and trade up into the top 5 to grab him
2) sit tight and see if a QB they reaaallly like falls to them at 12
3) trade back 6-10 spots and grab the best available DE

I think scenario #3 is most likely based on where the team is today and how competitive they'd be next year and based on what Shanahan and Lynch of said to date about Jimmy G. Regardless, let's examine each of these three scenarios...

Scenario #1 aka "Go Broke for Zach Wilson" (odds: 7.5%)
What if Kyle Shanahan absolutely falls in love with Zach Wilson? What if he thinks he's the second coming of Patrick Mahomes? What if he starts daydreaming about Wilson commanding an offense with Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo, Mostert?

I think it could be enough to tempt the 49ers to bet the house and trade #12, their 2nd rounder, and their 2022 1st rounder and likely more to get all the way to #2 or #3 and grab Wilson. This strikes me as antithetical to how the 49ers operate, but I believe Shanahan has to at least consider this option after seeing what guys like Mahomes and Josh Allen did to the 49ers this year and how those QBs have almost single-handedly changed the fortunes of two franchises. The question becomes does Wilson and some explosive weaponry on offense + a defense that is Nick Bosa and Fred Warner give the 49ers enough?

Scenario #2 aka "Wait for Justin Fields or Trey Lance" (odds: 17.5%)
If the 49ers don't feel strongly enough to mortgage the future for a QB but do feel that Fields or Lance can be a franchise QB and either or both are around at 12, it would be very tough to pass up. In this scenario, the 49ers land their QB of the future and maintain draft capital to build the rest of the roster by grabbing a DE in the 2nd round and a few CBs and IOL in round 3-7.

Scenario #3 aka "Riding with Jimmy G at QB" (odds: 75%)
If the 49ers ultimately decide that they can field the most competitive roster with Jimmy G as their QB, at least through 2021, I believe they'll trade back and load up at DE and address CB and IOL on day 2. While on the surface this seems like the safest move for Lynch and Shanahan it is actually by far the riskiest. If they get this wrong - e.g. Jimmy G plays like he did this year and doesn't show growth; if he's the weak link - that could be death blow to their tenure. However, if he returns to the version we say from weeks 8-17 in 2019, the 49ers will have the most talented roster in the NFL.

So, who are the players the Niners can target?
1) DE Kwity Paye Michigan 6'4" 271
Paye is an athletic freak, with length, explosiveness and brute strength. He reminds me of Frank Clark minus all the headaches, but he is raw. There's a chance he can go top 10 if he performs like he's expected to at the combine, but likely he'll be going in the 12-20 range.

2) DE Zaven Collins Tulsa 6'4" 260
Collins dominated this year as a Junior, winning the Bronko Nagurski Trophy as the NCAA's best defensive player. He's a talented pass rusher who can also play off the ball; he reminds me of a slightly less explosive Josh Allen and will very likely go somewhere between 10-20 when all is said and done.

3) DE Joseph Ossai Texas 6'4" 245
Ossai is pure length and explosiveness. He's a bit scrawny but he's in the Brian Burns mold and should be a good fit opposite Bosa where he just needs to shoot off the line and get into the backfield. Ossai is raw but super toolsy and will likely fall in the pick 18-30 range

4) DE Azeez Ojulari Georgia 6'3" 240
Ojulari dominated in the Peach Bowl against Cincinatti, nearly single-handedly winning the game for the Bulldogs. Ojulari is an undersized speed rusher who comps to Dee Ford. He's explosive but despite his smaller frame packs a serious punch and despite his youth has some advanced pass rush moves. He's not a complete DE, but if you're looking for someone to get after the QB, he may be the best pure pass rusher in the draft and should be available in the back third of the first round.

So...here's my wayyyy to early mock draft...

49ers Trade Pick #12 for Pick #20 and late 2nd Round Pick (56-60)

1st Round: DE Kwity Paye Michigan
2nd Round: OG Wyatt Davis Ohio St.
2nd Round: S Talanoa Hufunga USC
3rd Round: CB Tyson Campbell Georgia
4th Round: QB Kellen Mond Texas A&M or Desmond Ridder Cincinatti or Jamie Newman Georgia
5th Round: CB Camryn Bynum Cal 6'0" 199

That's wasting a 4th rounder. Especially Mond. Would love Davis in the second and like Campbell as well

Paye won't last to 20 and there's a certain Alabama quarterback who's conspicuously missing from this logic IMO. I think the odds of them staying at 12 and picking a QB are closer to ~33%. It makes much more sense, to me anyway, to just go QB first and then have the rest of your picks for OL, DE, CB etc.

I think there's a scenario where they can stand pat at #12 and just draft Mac Jones outright. Yeah, people might not see him as a 1st rounder, but honestly, even if he is not worth it there, I could definitely see New England picking him up at #15 since Belichick is good friends with Nick Saban. If Kyle likes Mac, then you don't really want to mess around and hope a QB falls to the 2nd round

If ridder comes out and falls to the 4th round? I would be super happy if we swooped him up but I think he goes in the 2nd where we should go iol,

I'd also be super happy if we take Pitts at 12- if we don't go qb- so what the hell do I know?

Am I the only one that doesn't see it with Kwity Paye?

He doesn't seem like he has the traits to be a pure pass rusher.

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Am I the only one that doesn't see it with Kwity Paye?

He doesn't seem like he has the traits to be a pure pass rusher.

But can he anchor?

Trade for more capital and just draft the best IOL available on the 20s. At 12 all the best talent will be gone.

Originally posted by richterkbelmont:
Trade for more capital and just draft the best IOL available on the 20s. At 12 all the best talent will be gone.

All the best talent will be gone yet another team will want to give up picks and trade up? Doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Gotta remember it takes 2 teams to trade which is why I doubt there will be a ton of suitors for the 12th pick. I'm guessing if they do move down it'll probably be like the Tampa trade last year where they move down one or two spots.

Originally posted by BSNAPZZ:

Originally posted by richterkbelmont:

Trade for more capital and just draft the best IOL available on the 20s. At 12 all the best talent will be gone.

All the best talent will be gone yet another team will want to give up picks and trade up? Doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Gotta remember it takes 2 teams to trade which is why I doubt there will be a ton of suitors for the 12th pick. I'm guessing if they do move down it'll probably be like the Tampa trade last year where they move down one or two spots.

Im hoping that if they do make a little move down, its followed by a second drop.

This draft looks deep at CB, OL and DE...all positions the Niners need depth at.

I'll be shocked if Paye is available at #20 and even more shocked if Davis is still there at #43. I think Paye is gone by #15 and Davis by #25 at the latest.

Originally posted by Butter:

Originally posted by BSNAPZZ:

Originally posted by richterkbelmont:

Trade for more capital and just draft the best IOL available on the 20s. At 12 all the best talent will be gone.

All the best talent will be gone yet another team will want to give up picks and trade up? Doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Gotta remember it takes 2 teams to trade which is why I doubt there will be a ton of suitors for the 12th pick. I'm guessing if they do move down it'll probably be like the Tampa trade last year where they move down one or two spots.

Im hoping that if they do make a little move down, its followed by a second drop.

This draft looks deep at CB, OL and DE...all positions the Niners need depth at.

I agree. Assuming Wilson and Fields are both gone by #12 I'd be all for turning it in to a couple 2nds and 3rds.

Scenario 1. They need a real, actual functioning QB that can throw the ball anywhere on the field. Like OP said, if they roll with JG and he's exactly how he was this year and shows bo growth Lynch and Shanahan will find themselves in a lot of hot water. Especially if the rookie QBs they could've traded up for are playing well elsewhere.

Shanahan can't just use Garoppolo as his whipping boy forever to take the heat off himself for not drafting a franchise QB or even attempting to.

Originally posted by PuckFarag10:

Scenario 1. They need a real, actual functioning QB that can throw the ball anywhere on the field. Like OP said, if they roll with JG and he's exactly how he was this year and shows bo growth Lynch and Shanahan will find themselves in a lot of hot water. Especially if the rookie QBs they could've traded up for are playing well elsewhere.

Shanahan can't just use Garoppolo as his whipping boy forever to take the heat off himself for not drafting a franchise QB or even attempting to.

I'm not a Jimmy G fanboy, but I find it funny how this season trumps his 2019 season.

Justin Fields is going to go way before #12. If he manages to beat Bama, he could very well go #1 overall.
That's still a big *if* but if he plays as well as he did against Clemson, his stock will sky rocket imo.