2023 Draft Prospect Watch List and Discussion

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

"The #49ers don't have a selection in the top 95 picks and have a great tight end in George Kittle, but a source with knowledge of the team's plans say they have done more work on that position than any other team they've encountered." — @nfldraftscout

— Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) April 13, 2023

Still wish we got to see a healthy Kittle And Jordan Reed for a full season

Yeah, that was a bummer. We've needed another good tight end for a while. If we can get a guy that's 70% as good as Kittle, watch out. Would be amazing.

im hoping we find someone and have a Gronk-Hernandez situation… just without the murder and all that.

If murder brings us a few rings I wouldn't be opposed.

You're… literally a diehard fan. Hahahahaha

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Luckycharms:
found this interesting in terms of teams trading up

"Here is the same chart for all pick-for-pick trades over the last 10 years. In aggregate, the trade down team "won" 58% of the time."

looks like trading up to picks 50-100 seems to be a net win majority of times but not so much for picks 100-150. Also teams that trade down in the first round win 71% of the time

https://mobile.twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1646520095160815621

BI'll Walsh approves of this message. LOL. Good find.

Fascinating. I am generally an advocate of trading down. Draft is unpredictable, and more picks is often better than higher picks.

Of course, with our current situation, I still advocate moving up, as we have a silly number of picks and if we select all these guys maybe half don't make roster.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Luckycharms:
found this interesting in terms of teams trading up

"Here is the same chart for all pick-for-pick trades over the last 10 years. In aggregate, the trade down team "won" 58% of the time."

looks like trading up to picks 50-100 seems to be a net win majority of times but not so much for picks 100-150. Also teams that trade down in the first round win 71% of the time

https://mobile.twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1646520095160815621

BI'll Walsh approves of this message. LOL. Good find.

Fascinating. I am generally an advocate of trading down. Draft is unpredictable, and more picks is often better than higher picks.

Of course, with our current situation, I still advocate moving up, as we have a silly number of picks and if we select all these guys maybe half don't make roster.

Could we trade one of our third rounders and maybe a 4th/5th rounder for someone's second next year? Or would it need to be more?

i like it when we do trades like that. Get better picks for the following draft and ammo to move up

How I'm seeing the CB rankings
1. Gonzalez
2. Banks
3. Witherspoon
4. Smith
5. Phillips
6. Forbes
7. Porter Jr.

"Guard the only position other than RB where more Pro Bowlers/All-Pros have been drafted on Day 2 than Day 1. Age also matters less here than anywhere else. Elite OGs entered the league at an average of 22.8 years old. OG also has the lowest % of elite players from Power 5 schools."

Also interesting is that center has the second highest % of elite players (behind safety) come from rounds 4+ but also the highest % from Power 5 schools.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Bo_Wulf/status/1646494781944545281

Originally posted by Luckycharms:
"Guard the only position other than RB where more Pro Bowlers/All-Pros have been drafted on Day 2 than Day 1. Age also matters less here than anywhere else. Elite OGs entered the league at an average of 22.8 years old. OG also has the lowest % of elite players from Power 5 schools."

Also interesting is that center has the second highest % of elite players (behind safety) come from rounds 4+ but also the highest % from Power 5 schools.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Bo_Wulf/status/1646494781944545281

That doesn't surprise me. I have no evidence to support my feelings, because I've never dug into it, but I always felt like the players who worked out the most from power 5 schools were O-lineman. Lol

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by Luckycharms:
"Guard the only position other than RB where more Pro Bowlers/All-Pros have been drafted on Day 2 than Day 1. Age also matters less here than anywhere else. Elite OGs entered the league at an average of 22.8 years old. OG also has the lowest % of elite players from Power 5 schools."

Also interesting is that center has the second highest % of elite players (behind safety) come from rounds 4+ but also the highest % from Power 5 schools.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Bo_Wulf/status/1646494781944545281

That doesn't surprise me. I have no evidence to support my feelings, because I've never dug into it, but I always felt like the players who worked out the most from power 5 schools were O-lineman. Lol

OG have the least % from power 5 schools but C and Safety have the highest from power 5. Maybe since both those positions kinda require thinking/intelligence that pays off more for those positions playing against tough competition nearly every week. Also interesting that more elite safety's come from rounds 4+

Originally posted by Luckycharms:

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by Luckycharms:
"Guard the only position other than RB where more Pro Bowlers/All-Pros have been drafted on Day 2 than Day 1. Age also matters less here than anywhere else. Elite OGs entered the league at an average of 22.8 years old. OG also has the lowest % of elite players from Power 5 schools."

Also interesting is that center has the second highest % of elite players (behind safety) come from rounds 4+ but also the highest % from Power 5 schools.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Bo_Wulf/status/1646494781944545281

That doesn't surprise me. I have no evidence to support my feelings, because I've never dug into it, but I always felt like the players who worked out the most from power 5 schools were O-lineman. Lol

OG have the least % from power 5 schools but C and Safety have the highest from power 5. Maybe since both those positions kinda require thinking/intelligence that pays off more for those positions playing against tough competition nearly every week. Also interesting that more elite safety's come from rounds 4+

Yeah, very interesting data. Huff was a fifth rounder, right?

any idea on where tackles come from and what round? Those seem to be the most reliable pick in the first round - once again, no evidence. Lol just feels that way to me.

I once went through like the 5 previous drafts and added up how many teams still had those draft picks on the team/where in the league. It was astonishing how many players aren't in the league anymore after 3 years and how many teams don't even have those players on their team after 3 years.

i did that like 8 years ago, so I don't have it anymore. I specifically remember belichick sucked at drafting those years.

Originally posted by Luckycharms:

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by Luckycharms:
"Guard the only position other than RB where more Pro Bowlers/All-Pros have been drafted on Day 2 than Day 1. Age also matters less here than anywhere else. Elite OGs entered the league at an average of 22.8 years old. OG also has the lowest % of elite players from Power 5 schools."

Also interesting is that center has the second highest % of elite players (behind safety) come from rounds 4+ but also the highest % from Power 5 schools.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Bo_Wulf/status/1646494781944545281

That doesn't surprise me. I have no evidence to support my feelings, because I've never dug into it, but I always felt like the players who worked out the most from power 5 schools were O-lineman. Lol

OG have the least % from power 5 schools but C and Safety have the highest from power 5. Maybe since both those positions kinda require thinking/intelligence that pays off more for those positions playing against tough competition nearly every week. Also interesting that more elite safety's come from rounds 4+

I love these nuggets. Good stuff.

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
How I'm seeing the CB rankings
1. Gonzalez
2. Banks
3. Witherspoon
4. Smith
5. Phillips
6. Forbes
7. Porter Jr.

Hey Hyst, I haven't been paying close attention but Lance Boykin is, I think, the second CB prospect that is 6'2" or over they met with (article saying they met predraft). What's up with finding tall lengthy CBs again? I thought the team was over that when they went Lenior and Ambry.

The 49ers played Cover3 like any other team in terms of frequency, but these tall, not so agile CBs, suggest a shift back to the profile that Saleh was looking for back in 2017. Trying to get a clue for what Steve Wilks wants to do by looking at the CBs the 49ers are looking at.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
How I'm seeing the CB rankings
1. Gonzalez
2. Banks
3. Witherspoon
4. Smith
5. Phillips
6. Forbes
7. Porter Jr.

Hey Hyst, I haven't been paying close attention but Lance Boykin is, I think, the second CB prospect that is 6'2" or over they met with (article saying they met predraft). What's up with finding tall lengthy CBs again? I thought the team was over that when they went Lenior and Ambry.

The 49ers played Cover3 like any other team in terms of frequency, but these tall, not so agile CBs, suggest a shift back to the profile that Saleh was looking for back in 2017. Trying to get a clue for what Steve Wilks wants to do by looking at the CBs the 49ers are looking at.

Well Wilks was with the Panthers when they took Jaycee Horne. I'm not going to act like I know exactly how much press man, off man or zone the Panthers were running but my guess is Wilks wants to play lots of press and blitz. With Ward and Oliver we have two taller CBs who can disrupt routes at the line. I wouldn't be surprised if we take Eli Ricks or Tyrique Stevenson to compete with Lenoir. My guess is with Bosa and and a blitzing game Wilks will want to force quick passes allowing his Safeties to play more downhill and his corners to beat up on the divas. Just my guess which will most assuredly be incorrect as we start running Tampa 2 which would be incredible with Fred Warner.

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
How I'm seeing the CB rankings
1. Gonzalez
2. Banks
3. Witherspoon
4. Smith
5. Phillips
6. Forbes
7. Porter Jr.

My buddies who are Giants fans…all want Banks/Gonzalez/spoon.

I just don't see any of them dropping to 26

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
How I'm seeing the CB rankings
1. Gonzalez
2. Banks
3. Witherspoon
4. Smith
5. Phillips
6. Forbes
7. Porter Jr.

Hey Hyst, I haven't been paying close attention but Lance Boykin is, I think, the second CB prospect that is 6'2" or over they met with (article saying they met predraft). What's up with finding tall lengthy CBs again? I thought the team was over that when they went Lenior and Ambry.

The 49ers played Cover3 like any other team in terms of frequency, but these tall, not so agile CBs, suggest a shift back to the profile that Saleh was looking for back in 2017. Trying to get a clue for what Steve Wilks wants to do by looking at the CBs the 49ers are looking at.

Well Wilks was with the Panthers when they took Jaycee Horne. I'm not going to act like I know exactly how much press man, off man or zone the Panthers were running but my guess is Wilks wants to play lots of press and blitz. With Ward and Oliver we have two taller CBs who can disrupt routes at the line. I wouldn't be surprised if we take Eli Ricks or Tyrique Stevenson to compete with Lenoir. My guess is with Bosa and and a blitzing game Wilks will want to force quick passes allowing his Safeties to play more downhill and his corners to beat up on the divas. Just my guess which will most assuredly be incorrect as we start running Tampa 2 which would be incredible with Fred Warner.

Thoughts on cory trice jr?

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Thoughts on cory trice jr?

I haven't watched anything on him. the lazy search only brings up highlights and no real film. I'll try and find some real Purdue game film to watch

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
How I'm seeing the CB rankings
1. Gonzalez
2. Banks
3. Witherspoon
4. Smith
5. Phillips
6. Forbes
7. Porter Jr.

Hey Hyst, I haven't been paying close attention but Lance Boykin is, I think, the second CB prospect that is 6'2" or over they met with (article saying they met predraft). What's up with finding tall lengthy CBs again? I thought the team was over that when they went Lenior and Ambry.

The 49ers played Cover3 like any other team in terms of frequency, but these tall, not so agile CBs, suggest a shift back to the profile that Saleh was looking for back in 2017. Trying to get a clue for what Steve Wilks wants to do by looking at the CBs the 49ers are looking at.

Well Wilks was with the Panthers when they took Jaycee Horne. I'm not going to act like I know exactly how much press man, off man or zone the Panthers were running but my guess is Wilks wants to play lots of press and blitz. With Ward and Oliver we have two taller CBs who can disrupt routes at the line. I wouldn't be surprised if we take Eli Ricks or Tyrique Stevenson to compete with Lenoir. My guess is with Bosa and and a blitzing game Wilks will want to force quick passes allowing his Safeties to play more downhill and his corners to beat up on the divas. Just my guess which will most assuredly be incorrect as we start running Tampa 2 which would be incredible with Fred Warner.

Horn was a top prospect that could play in any scheme though, right? So any team would have liked to draft him, and top CB prospects are always drafted because they are projected to excel at man coverage. That's why I think the day 2/3 guys, guys that have hole(s) in their game, while being good at other things, tell us more about what the team is looking for, and what they are willing to sacrifice in terms of skillset. Wilks does blitz with higher frequency than normal, so good point there about blitzing and pressing.
When it comes to meh QBs, I think blitzing and playing man to tighten the windows is fine. But I'm more interested in beating the good QBs that enjoy seeing a blitz because it makes things easier for them. Then when going up against good elusive QBs that can extend plays, I think having agile CBs that can plaster during off schedule situations are better than these 6'2 CBs with average fluidity.