Jacksonville Jaguar Arik Armstead-DT Thread

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Maybe for this year, then again, after the super bowl, everybody wants your guys and they will bid through the roof to get your guys to put butts in seats. The key to having a *dynasty* team - that consistently wins like the Pats have these past decades despite the cap is great player evaluations and great cap management. Anything less and you have a one shot wonder, basically.

2001 Patriots, key defensive players
Lawyer Milloy
Tedy Bruschi
Roman Phifer
Ty Law
Mike Vrabel
Richard Seymour
Willie McGinest

2003 Patriots, key defensive players
Rodney Harrison
Lawyer Milloy
Tedy Bruschi
Ty Warren
Willie McGinest
Roman Phifer
Ty Law
Mike Vrabel
Richard Seymour

2004 Patriots, key defensive players
Rodney Harrison
Ty Warren
Tedy Bruschi
Mike Vrabel
Richard Seymour
Willie McGinest
Vince Wilfork
Ty Law

2006 Patriots, key defensive players
Tedy Bruschi
Mike Vrabel
Ty Warren
Richard Seymour
Rodney Harrison
Vince Wilfork
Asante Samuel

2008 Patriots, key defensive players
Tedy Bruschi
Mike Vrabel
Richard Seymour
Ty Warren
Vince Wilfork
Rodney Harrison

Seems like they kept a key core group on their defense for a pretty lengthy time.

I would say a good portion of them were kept because of their rookie contracts. but the guys hitting free agency and asking for the moon were let go. Belicheat is one frugal dude. All I'm saying is if you want to emulate long term success in the salary cap era, there is one model to look at and learn from. And that is from the Patirots.

NY makes a good point that we are not the Pat's nor is our division theirs, but the Pat's took our winning formula and made it theirs, why cant we do the same to them?

Originally posted by Giedi:

You can only control what you can control. You cant dictate what sean mcvay does or what pete carrol does. You can only control your cap, your player evaluations. So if you dont do your best to control the cap and do good player evaluations, eventually your team will regress to mediocrity or worse.

Right but if you division is dogs**t for over a decade that plays a part into them being good. If they're in a more competitive division you think they go about the cap and just let dudes walk? No way.

They also aren't always flush with cash they pay there core dudes and benefit from a elite QB not asking for elite money. Dude got $15M to win a SB last yr lol.

Also go look at their drafts the past couple yrs. overall they've been awful.

Originally posted by Tigerlaw:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by Giedi:
If you are going to spend. Spend it on edge rushers, not DT's

Tell that to Minnesota. Spending on the edges while largely neglecting the middle has left them a defense vulnerable to be run on all day. And Armstead has been able to play both on the edge and inside. He's been absolutely vital to this teams success. Having him and Buckner together is a luxury that the team can absolutely afford for at least the next few years. How many teams can throw out two 6'7" behemoths to stop the run and get after the QB? There's just no good logical or financial reasoning behind jettisoning Armstead just as he's hitting his potential.

You make a very good point.

This reminds me of when we had Willis and Bowman

You need a big picture view on how the unique combination of players impact the defense

AA is more than just a generic DT

His combination with Buckner against the run and pass are worth more together than the individual player.

Willis and Bowman...not just great LBs but combined they let our defense stay in base and gave us great run and pass defense at the same time.

As a bonus it also made it hard to gameplan or practice against because it was unique.

Buckner and AA are the same story just at DL

I wouldn't max out AA but I would go higher than a replacement if we got fair value.

Guaranteed money or something would be a creative way to keep his numbers low

I agree that we need to do everything to keep him. Paraag will figure this out, he'll keep AA happy while also not taking a big cap hit.

Originally posted by Giedi:

I would say a good portion of them were kept because of their rookie contracts. but the guys hitting free agency and asking for the moon were let go. Belicheat is one frugal dude. All I'm saying is if you want to emulate long term success in the salary cap era, there is one model to look at and learn from. And that is from the Patirots.

NY makes a good point that we are not the Pat's nor is our division theirs, but the Pat's took our winning formula and made it theirs, why cant we do the same to them?

Nah most of those guys he listed played in NE for like 8+ plus

Originally posted by NYniner85:

When you have guys on the offense who are all day 2/3 picks doing what their doing you sure can have that 💰 invested in the DL.

-Solly is in the last year of his deal next yr. LT he doesn't factor into anything (no way they will give him a 5th yr option this off season). He's gone and AA remains.

-Ford can be moved on from after 2020 without massive DM. He shouldn't be counted on LT based on his health.

-Jimmy G isn't an expensive QB with all these other contracts that will or have been done recently. They can also restructure his contract to lower the cap next yr anyway.

-TE contracts aren't anywhere close to WR contracts. Kelce is avg $9.6M a yr which in the grand scheme of money invested in a top player is not a lot.

You DO NOT let top end pass rushers that can play inside/outside leave. Plain and simple. Kid is 26 yrs old and hasn't even hit his prime yet.

What day 2 picks do we have on offense outside of Debo? Our QB and Center are top 5 paid for the position. Our FB and TE (soon to be) will be the highest paid in the league at their position and we have 2 highly compensated Tackles. The only positions we are not paying top of market is WR, G and RB and that may change if the keep Sanders.
I'd love to see AA stay but if he does it will mean Dee is gone after next year and I'd be OK with that.

next years DE / UFA LIST

Robert Quinn DE 30 DAL TBD 14 34 12 24 2 $8,000,000 UFA Market Value
Arik Armstead DE 26 SF TBD 16 54 10 19 2 $2,460,658 UFA -
Jason Pierre-Paul DE 31 TB TBD 10 27 9 16 2 $3,000,000 UFA -
Chris Jones DE 26 KC TBD 13 36 9 20 1 $1,557,807 UFA Market Value
Vic Beasley DE 28 ATL TBD 16 42 8 12 2 $3,623,807 UFA -
Yannick Ngakoue DE 25 JAC TBD 15 41 8 17 4 1 $870,147 UFA Market Value
Derek Wolfe DE 30 DEN TBD 12 34 7 13 1 $9,175,000 UFA -
Shaq Lawson DE 26 BUF TBD 15 32 7 18 1 $2,569,744 UFA Market Value
Benson Mayowa DE 29 OAK TBD 15 15 7 12 3 $1,700,000 UFA

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/ufa/defensive-end/available/

Could AA be the most impressive in that list?

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by Giedi:
If you are going to spend. Spend it on edge rushers, not DT's

Tell that to Minnesota. Spending on the edges while largely neglecting the middle has left them a defense vulnerable to be run on all day. And Armstead has been able to play both on the edge and inside. He's been absolutely vital to this teams success. Having him and Buckner together is a luxury that the team can absolutely afford for at least the next few years. How many teams can throw out two 6'7" behemoths to stop the run and get after the QB? There's just no good logical or financial reasoning behind jettisoning Armstead just as he's hitting his potential.

Ford and Bosa are the impact players, not Arik. Again, it's my opinion, but Arik is benefitting from Ford and Bosa and Buckner. Not the other way around. 49ers have done great in the later rounds getting solid DT's, and the point to that is -- as long as you have elite edge rushers, you will always be in the playoffs (as Minnesota was) as long as you have a *solid* defense and a decent offense. A solid defense means it doesn't have any weaknesses, but it also doesn't necessarily contain all pro personnel getting a good chunk of the cap space all along the front 7 or the back 4.

Go look at the past 49er defenses. The championship teams have always had either a Fred Dean or a Charles Haley, but can you name any of the DT's? You only need a very good, but not great DT next to your edge rusher to elevate that edge rusher to elite level, because the key to this defense is the blind side hits creating turnovers. That 's the signature name of the Siefert/carroll defense. Turnovers.

The last Super Bowl team had great DTs in Bryant Young (elite) and Dana Stubblefield (elite for us in the 1st go around). Michael Carter was damn good. Let's not act like we had slouches in the middle of our D.

I think going into 2020 and 2021 we can keep our defense as is. Afterwards, there will be some tough decisions to make and hopefully we have replacements lined up without too much of a drop off. The other thing is as long as Kyle is calling plays, perhaps we can sink more draft capital into the offense to keep a steady flow of offensive talent coming in. Also, AA is in a pretty good position should we stay with us. If he remains with this team, he can earn pretty good money (top 5 or 10 DT money), look All-world (no offense can really focus on stopping just him ), and be in a position to get a massive deal in a few years (if he does a short term deal as someone suggested). This is a dream defensive line, he likes it here, he likes his teammates, etc. If the team can pay 12 -15 million per year, why not? I just can't see leaving for a few million more to go play for a team and likely become the focal point of a team's offensive game plan.

If the Toots throw 18m per year at Armstead, do we match or let him walk?

Originally posted by All22:
If the Toots throw 18m per year at Armstead, do we match or let him walk?

We definitely would not trade him to the toots.

Originally posted by All22:
If the Toots throw 18m per year at Armstead, do we match or let him walk?

toots?

Originally posted by pdizo916:

Originally posted by All22:

If the Toots throw 18m per year at Armstead, do we match or let him walk?

toots?

Hawks

Originally posted by pdizo916:

toots?

Staley's daughter wrote that

AA is doing awesome. But it's hard not to say it's a direct result from having Bosa and Ford. We added those two and then AA starts having a career year? Coincidence? Hopefully he wants to stay and he gets a decent contract. I won't feel bad for any team that over pays while he regresses due to the lack of talent around him.

We need him. Paraag, get it done.