Jacksonville Jaguar Arik Armstead-DT Thread

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by tjd808185:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Not that I don't want him back. The dude has become a force and he's a true 9er...loves it here...works very hard; grinds.

We could find ourselves in the exact same situation with Solly too next year if we decline his option then he balls out. Nice problem to have having so much talent on the d line but keeping it together is a b. D lineman are expensive.

Yeah, it really is. And high quality IDL are starting to cost what DE/ER's are making.

We know how Saleh is always run-defense first. And remember when fans were concerned about moving to the W9 and the rush yards we'd give up? We gave up 1,800 yards and a 4.5 yard average...112 yards a game which was about 17th (identical to 2018). Not great...but none of it had any baring on the games. What made this defense was consistent pressure on the QB esp. on 3rd downs. Nobody runs anymore (except us and a few other run-centric teams). It's a passing league...period...1st, 2nd, 3rd and even 4th down...pass. This isn't a run-run-pass league, Saleh. It's a pass-run-pass league.

So, with Buckner scheduled to make $14.3M this year on his 5th year option....I'm guessing $14.5M for AA on a long-term deal, could the team let Buckner try the FA market next year and potentially let him walk?

If this team wants to continue running the W9, you need two Bosa's on the end and explosive, disruptive 1-gap penetrators inside esp. given the number of athletic QB's we tend to face; love to get outside our DE's despite running a W9. They can ONLY do that to AA's side...not Bosa's.

As it stands today, this is who's on the roster. And we know R.Blair and D.Moore should be easy, cheap resigns.

LDE/W9: Dee Ford; Anthony Zettel & Alex Barrett
2i: D.J. Jones; Solomon Thomas, Kentavius Street & Kevin Givens
3T: DeForest Buckner; Jullian Taylor, Willie Henry Jr. & Ray Smith
RDE/W9: Nick Bosa; Jonathan Kongbo

Between Zettel, Barrett, Kongbo, draft pick, plus Blair and Moore, we should have great depth at the end position for nickel; even some base downs. Now, for run defense base packages at LDE, we've got Thomas, J.Taylor, K.Street so far.

Another option is to use Buckner like AA if AA walks. He plays LDE in base and slides inside in nickel. While he's on the end in base, guys like Jones, Givens, Street, Taylor, Henry, and Smith can play inside.

With this concept, how much would we really lose in run defense? 4.5 yards to 4.6? And finding IDL to plug is so much easier than finding ER's who are very well rounded (can rush with variant moves, strong enough to bull rush and fast enough to set the edge against athletic QB's and RB's).

AA walks in the grand scheme here and that $14.5M-$19M-$21M salary goes to locking up these guys and perhaps, a better RG in FA and helping to extend at least one of these guys: Kittle or Buckner (in that order).

C Ben Garland - Offer 2-year, $3M deal (currently, $805K)
TE Levine Toilolo - Offer 2-year, $2M deal (currently, $735K)
DE Damontre Moore - Offer 2-year, $2M deal (currently, $235K)
DE Ronald Blair III - Offer 2-year, $5M deal (currently, $787K)
WR Emmanuel Sanders - Test free agency first (Expected to sign an $8-9M contract)
FS Jimmie Ward - Test free agency first (Expected to sign an $8-9M contract)

NC, I was with you right up to the point where AA walks. Let's just say $16-17 Mil per. A lot of money. OTOH, having the best , meanest, fastest DL in the league puts us squarely in the running for the SB ...routinely... Bosa,, Buck , AA are the 3some we could and should tie up for the next 4-5 yrs. if you are looking at replacing someone, it should be the guy i thot was going to put us over the top this past yr, Dee. Great signing, Andy goofed up in trading him. Whoops....the opposite happened and we got a taste of what a part time player at a key position was like....when he became PART of a PART TIME PLAYER. 226 snaps is not enough . What that says is he isn't dependable and that just killed us this yr, but esp in SB.

The nucleus we have...now it just takes a gut check at HC/GM level to keep them here. Basically they played the entire yr with Dee on the sideline for ~ 75 % of the snaps. The worst part was we never knew when that was going to be., between his knees and a hammy. I loved the signing and was sure we could make it work if just part time. I had no idea it would be occasionally part time. Whatever, it worked great while he was on the field, but our best DL in the league became just a good DL with Dee on the bench. Watching Dee zip around the LT was as exciting as it gets, and watching the QB quake in his cleats was classic. But the rest of the time our fantastic 3-some just couldn't bring the pressure. With DJ, it did get better. But never as good as with Dee.

But the injury deal just proved the opposite of what I had thot. We cannot depend on Dee anytime. He gutted it out in the SB, but obviously he was working on just one wheel...and that didn't work out for us. Keeping him as is another yr (and $4.5 mil cap hit if cut...unless traded) is only doable if we acquire another ER in FA, draft or trade. I don't see anybody trading for him. This was a bad idea, but i sure liked it at the time. Now, we have to just recognize that no matter what, we can't count on Dee for medical reasons. When playing he's an A #1 stud. When not playing our DL is still good, but just not great. So work on keeping Buck/nick/ Arik and pay the man. With those 3 guys john can find us someone who will compliment them, whether we keep Dee or not. I'd like to keep him. But we have to have a dependable guy at right ER.

If cutting the payroll is paramount, it should be Solly, another favorite of mine, plus McKinnon, Marquise, and , well, you pick 'em. But cutting AA and then spending the next 5 yrs trying to find a stud DT who can play not only Inside but outside as well. There are just a handful of guys in the NFL who can play both....as it turns out, Bosa is one of those few. Keep that DL together, even if it eats up 25% of cap. That would give us a $50 mil DL, but it would play like a $100 mil.DL, best in the league...assuming we use Dee 50% of the time or replace him. With another DE stud(good luck on that).

That is what gets us back to the SB. Keep those 3 guys together and watch them compete most yrs into February...just like Bellichek's crew.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by BriRichardson:

Kittle will get $16 mil per which isn't "cheap". We basically have a smaller window due to not having success until year 3

I'd be shocked if he gets WR money like that. That would be massive given the current #1 TE is paid at $10M. Highly doubt that. But like Donald breaking the market, it's possible.

Probably closer to an APY of 12 IMO.

That's exactly what I have.

If the cap is going to explode then Kittle would be best waiting a year

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by tjd808185:
Calm down on Bosa he's 1 year in. By the time we pay him Ford is going to be gone.

But Buckner and Ford's replacement are going to cost big bucks unless we find a sleeper DE in the late rounds.

This is something I heard from the former Oregon defensive coach and it's what makes me a little leary of signing AA long term. I know this is his opinion but he coached the guy for 3 years. He said the he always felt Buckner would be a better pro because he was tougher and more aggressive. He always had to prod AA to get him to put in the work and would only play in spurts. That's what we saw for the first 3 years. Now in a contract year he plays great. This may be who he is from now on or he could be the guy that Oregon and we saw for 6 years.

Well some may think the gross improvement in play was the contract yr. i choose to believe he NEVER got the coaching that was required to become...well super. The coach from Oregon whose opinion you noted, may very well have been one of those coaches who was responsible for Arik's less than stellar play. All i know is that once Kocurek arrived, Arik suddenly becomes a phenom. I choose to think it is Coach K , not the contract yr. And sure it was Nick, and Buck and Dee that helped a ton.

Re: coming up with money for Buck and Dee, no question we go full on to reward Buck. And the sooner the better. As for Dee, initially i thot this was a great move to sign him and thot we snookered Andy Reid. Turns out the shoe is on the other foot and Andy got the last laugh. I posted this elsewhere but Dee is spectacular coming around that LT. I mean it is an incredible sight watching LTs have Dee sail around them and scaring the krapt out of the QB. Playing part time didn't bother me that much. But i never imagined he would play PART of PART TIME. That is a horse of a different color.

I admired him coming back in the SB even tho injured, but he wasn't the same. Consequently we saw both Solomon and Zettle out there most of the time in the 2nd half. Had we had both DJ and Blair healthy, i am not so sure we wouldn't have had a different outcome in the SB. The problem was 226 snaps...the # of snaps Dee played. Bottom line...it wasn't enough. So if we are going to cut someone, i would look at Dee's status come late Aug early Sept and if he is still iffy, then we would have needed to FA, draft or trade for a speed ER to either back up Dee or to start. The $4.5 mil...let kyle and john make the decision on that.

But my exuberance over signing Dee waned substantially once it became obvious between knees and hammy, he was not able to play half the time, when it was more like 1/4 the time. Whatever, it was NOT ENOUGH. How John and kyle figure this out IDK, and have no advice. Let them figure it out. But signing Arik and Buck is key. Dee is up in the air as is his ability to play at least half time if not more. But this is the slot that cannot stay the same. Hopefully DJ fixes this post op, or perhaps Blair. Also JL can help us out in the late draft rds by coming up with another DJ. Whether FA, by trade or draft, this is the slot that has to be fixed.

And talk about cutting the cord with Arik? Please let's do away with that. He is one of just a handful of DTs who not only can play inside, he can also play outside. Contract yr? Red herring. This was all crappy, crummy coaching, in college and here. Match him up with coach K and boom!. We get the real Arik.

The coach from Oregon also had Buckner who outplayed AA his entire time at Oregon. He also coached a pretty good lineman that starred for years in the NFL. You may remember him. Haloti Ngata. He wasn't bad mouthing AA he was just saying that he needed constant prodding to keep him playing well. I just have a little caution when I see a guy have a year that is so much better than his past. He may be a guy that just finally matured and figured out what it takes to be a good NFL starter. I hope that's the case whether we sign him or trade him. He seems like a good guy and I wish him well no matter how this turns out.

Originally posted by NCommand:
He's gone IMHO. It would be roughly $18M for the Non-Exclusive tag and $21M for the Exclusive tag. If there are no takers, you're stuck with that number or a mad scramble on a long-term deal and we only have $12M in cap space today.

So moving forward, they need essentially, a Big End-type player...a player who can set the edge and who's excellent against the run in base packages. I think the FO was planning for this day with the drafting of Kentavius Street & Jullian Taylor to a lesser degree. We also have Solomon Thomas...many of you projected him to play the BE role like Michael Bennett. In W9 and factoring in his best skill set: run defense, he'd certainly be added to the pool at LDE.

Then, for now, in nickel, bring in the W9 personnel: Dee Ford, Anthony Zettel, Alex Barrett & Jonathan Kongbo. Resign Ronald Blair & Damontre Moore.

Where we'd lose is the 10 sacks inside the T's...almost all when he slid inside in nickel next to Buckner.

I know i screw with you about your "salary cap is a myth" take, but if it's a myth why would a 26 year old, multi position DL stud who is hitting his prime be gone?

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
NC, I was with you right up to the point where AA walks. Let's just say $16-17 Mil per. A lot of money. OTOH, having the best , meanest, fastest DL in the league puts us squarely in the running for the SB ...routinely... Bosa,, Buck , AA are the 3some we could and should tie up for the next 4-5 yrs. if you are looking at replacing someone, it should be the guy i thot was going to put us over the top this past yr, Dee. Great signing, Andy goofed up in trading him. Whoops....the opposite happened and we got a taste of what a part time player at a key position was like....when he became PART of a PART TIME PLAYER. 226 snaps is not enough . What that says is he isn't dependable and that just killed us this yr, but esp in SB.

The nucleus we have...now it just takes a gut check at HC/GM level to keep them here. Basically they played the entire yr with Dee on the sideline for ~ 75 % of the snaps. The worst part was we never knew when that was going to be., between his knees and a hammy. I loved the signing and was sure we could make it work if just part time. I had no idea it would be occasionally part time. Whatever, it worked great while he was on the field, but our best DL in the league became just a good DL with Dee on the bench. Watching Dee zip around the LT was as exciting as it gets, and watching the QB quake in his cleats was classic. But the rest of the time our fantastic 3-some just couldn't bring the pressure. With DJ, it did get better. But never as good as with Dee.

But the injury deal just proved the opposite of what I had thot. We cannot depend on Dee anytime. He gutted it out in the SB, but obviously he was working on just one wheel...and that didn't work out for us. Keeping him as is another yr (and $4.5 mil cap hit if cut...unless traded) is only doable if we acquire another ER in FA, draft or trade. I don't see anybody trading for him. This was a bad idea, but i sure liked it at the time. Now, we have to just recognize that no matter what, we can't count on Dee for medical reasons. When playing he's an A #1 stud. When not playing our DL is still good, but just not great. So work on keeping Buck/nick/ Arik and pay the man. With those 3 guys john can find us someone who will compliment them, whether we keep Dee or not. I'd like to keep him. But we have to have a dependable guy at right ER.

If cutting the payroll is paramount, it should be Solly, another favorite of mine, plus McKinnon, Marquise, and , well, you pick 'em. But cutting AA and then spending the next 5 yrs trying to find a stud DT who can play not only Inside but outside as well. There are just a handful of guys in the NFL who can play both....as it turns out, Bosa is one of those few. Keep that DL together, even if it eats up 25% of cap. That would give us a $50 mil DL, but it would play like a $100 mil.DL, best in the league...assuming we use Dee 50% of the time or replace him. With another DE stud(good luck on that).

That is what gets us back to the SB. Keep those 3 guys together and watch them compete most yrs into February...just like Bellichek's crew.

Excellent post!

Ford hasn't made an impact like we all thought he would and he sure missed a lot of playing time.

I really like the cutting of Solly, McK, and Goodwyn.

I'm for keeping AA - heis performance soared when Kocurek changed things up.

Wish we could have extended him when we all thought he sucked lol.

Originally posted by All22:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by BriRichardson:

Kittle will get $16 mil per which isn't "cheap". We basically have a smaller window due to not having success until year 3

I'd be shocked if he gets WR money like that. That would be massive given the current #1 TE is paid at $10M. Highly doubt that. But like Donald breaking the market, it's possible.

Probably closer to an APY of 12 IMO.

That's exactly what I have.

If the cap is going to explode then Kittle would be best waiting a year

Great point.

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by NCommand:

He's gone IMHO. It would be roughly $18M for the Non-Exclusive tag and $21M for the Exclusive tag. If there are no takers, you're stuck with that number or a mad scramble on a long-term deal and we only have $12M in cap space today.

So moving forward, they need essentially, a Big End-type player...a player who can set the edge and who's excellent against the run in base packages. I think the FO was planning for this day with the drafting of Kentavius Street & Jullian Taylor to a lesser degree. We also have Solomon Thomas...many of you projected him to play the BE role like Michael Bennett. In W9 and factoring in his best skill set: run defense, he'd certainly be added to the pool at LDE.

Then, for now, in nickel, bring in the W9 personnel: Dee Ford, Anthony Zettel, Alex Barrett & Jonathan Kongbo. Resign Ronald Blair & Damontre Moore.

Where we'd lose is the 10 sacks inside the T's...almost all when he slid inside in nickel next to Buckner.

I know i screw with you about your "salary cap is a myth" take, but if it's a myth why would a 26 year old, multi position DL stud who is hitting his prime be gone?

Haha. I don't mind. Every team loses at least one player to FA every year. Playoff teams lose even more d/t players being overvalued. It's just the landscape of the NFL in a salary cap era. That said, the cap is still a myth. It's a speed bump IMHO. It'll slow you down but it isn't going to do any real damage unless you drive over it at 100mph.

Same here. This FO could still, even at only $12M make this work, but it's probably not worth going to that extreme in the long term and hit that speed bump at 50mph with the baby in the backseat.

Cutting Solly doesn't save any money. Move him or keep him.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Cutting Solly doesn't save any money. Move him or keep him.

I believe it saves 4 out of his 8 mil but I don't know much about the cap.

Originally posted by ltrain:

Wish we could have extended him when we all thought he sucked lol.

Doing it last year would've been badly but imagine the payoff. He was a good player last year and would've gotten some solid starter money. Imagine if we did offer like a 2- or 3-year extension for 8 million . He might have taken it.

Heart still wants to keep AA. Head starting to come around to the tag and trade option. We can fill his absence with two different types of players. Run stopping DE/DTs like Thomas, Street, and Taylor, and maybe sign a cheaper FA DE more in a speed rusher mold, or draft this player.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by TheGore49er:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by JMC52:
Tag n trade

And if nobody bites? How are we paying either $19M or $21M?

Somebody will. It just depends how many team are interested. If its only 2 or 3 teams, that will bring his trade value down. Would we be okay with a 3rd? At that point u have no choice but to say okay.

I'm not as confident as most. He's not an ER. He's a quilty DE who got all 10 sacks inside the T's with an epic support cast.

We gave up a 2 for Ford...the leagues top 3 ER in a career year.

You're going to get a 3rd next year for him in comp. So it better be a high 3rd at the least THIS year.

And I don't know if that really happens knowing we're cap strapped and can't afford the $19 or $21M cap hit if nobody bites. I think smart FO's just wait it out and bank he'll be free in FA soon.

That's not accurate. Some of his sacks came from the edge as well.

Originally posted by Hopper:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by TheGore49er:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by JMC52:

Tag n trade

And if nobody bites? How are we paying either $19M or $21M?

Somebody will. It just depends how many team are interested. If its only 2 or 3 teams, that will bring his trade value down. Would we be okay with a 3rd? At that point u have no choice but to say okay.

I'm not as confident as most. He's not an ER. He's a quilty DE who got all 10 sacks inside the T's with an epic support cast.

We gave up a 2 for Ford...the leagues top 3 ER in a career year.

You're going to get a 3rd next year for him in comp. So it better be a high 3rd at the least THIS year.

And I don't know if that really happens knowing we're cap strapped and can't afford the $19 or $21M cap hit if nobody bites. I think smart FO's just wait it out and bank he'll be free in FA soon.

That's not accurate. Some of his sacks came from the edge as well.

All inside the T's. Not coming around the edge outside the T like Ford.

Originally posted by tjd808185:

I believe it saves 4 out of his 8 mil but I don't know much about the cap.

Cutting him doesn't. His base salary is guaranteed. We only gain 4 mil by trading that guaranteed salary away. Otherwise we pay him 8 mil to play for 9ers or play elsewhere.