Jacksonville Jaguar Arik Armstead-DT Thread

Silly me, I don't think we get rid of Sanders or Goodwin. If we go into next year with Deebo, Taylor, Bourne, Hurd, and Pettis I'm going to be pizzzzzzed.

Originally posted by rto66:

Originally posted by midrdan:

Originally posted by rto66:

Originally posted by DaBum:

Originally posted by rto66:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by rto66:
people said the same thing about armstead last year and clowney the year before.... but whatever apparently ford sucks and he should be released. once that happens ford becomes a hall of famer to everybody

Ford is actually one of those players who should be restructured down to the real role he plays. A part time nickel ER.

And look at the article on Buckner. You know he's a priority over AA. And if he already turned down $60M GTD, yikes.

yikes with what. armstead and buckner are friends. they will make sure both get paid. armstead thrives in this scheme and he doesnt want to leave. also jason hurley said we could reisgn both armstead and buckner and others if we restructure some contracts which we will for sure do. but nope everybodys negative and probably expect us to win 8 games next year. it is what it is with this whining fanbase

It is possible to afford AA and restructure. I explained all that a few weeks ago in an article. Question is, does it set them up for failure everywhere else?

They'd have more than $50 million a year tied to the four starters on the DL. That's 25+% of the salary cap going to 7.5% of your roster. When you add in other expensive players like Jimmy and Kittle after extension, you are looking at have $115 mil to sign 47 other guys. That's not even 2.5 mil per player.

So pay reserves nothing right? 49ers would have the worst depth in the league then and depth is massively important.

Even if the 49ers only average $1.5 mil per backup (not even 600k over minimum) that still leaves just $71.5 million for the remaining 18 starters (K, P included).

That's less than $4 mil per starter. You're not finding/keeping starters at that price. Most of the starters already cost more than that.

Basically, the 49ers could possibly afford everyone this year. Next year is a different story though. Paraag magic essentially back loads deals when the 49ers can get out as guaranteed is already paid. Ford is more expensive, DeFo is bound to be, AA is bound to be, Bosa goes up approximately 1.5 mil per year, Jimmy goes up ... It's not sustainable.

Sure the 49ers could cut Ford year and gain nearly $13 mil for the cap. That's not going to plug the holes that are bound to emerge and that will only really take care of the riding cap hits of other players.

I wish the 49ers could pay AA but it will destroy the rest of the team to do so. He's a luxury with the other DL the team has. It's as simple as that.

jason hurleys articles said otherwise but whatever. apparently the niners are screwed the next 5 seasons even though were not. but ok 8-8 next season

I figure this team comes back pretty much intact in 2020. Maybe they lose Ward and Sanders. They might cut Coleman. They will likely cut Goodwin and McKinnon. Assuming these cuts and Nzeocha is cut, the cap goes from $13 million to $26.5 million. Restructuring Jimmy bumps the cap to $44 million.

That's enough to resign Armstead ($16 per) and do a new deal for Kittle ($15 per) and sign our draft picks and maybe add a FA (or resign Ward).

The team might start to look different in 2021.

Ford is basically a two year contract. They can get out of it pretty cheap after 2020. They cut him or restructure. If cut, they save $11.2 million.

Sherman is in the final year of his deal. I don't see them keeping him at $13-15 million at age 33. So figure he is gone as well in 2020 (or he takes a pay cut, which is unlikely). If gone, they save $12 million.

Solomon Thomas is $8.5 million this year against the cap. He's not coming back (for that at least).

Tomlinson can be cut after 2020, saving $5.5 million.

Staley is likely playing his last year in 2020. Cutting him (retiring) saves $12 million in 2021.

So, basically with these five cuts you're looking at $50 million coming to us in 2021, not counting the projected spike in cap per team with the new CBA. New deals for Buckner, Warner and Tartt likely.

Buckner is already counting $14.5 million against the cap. A "huge" raise to $18 million a year is basically a $3.5 million bump from his current cap number.

Sure we gotta replace Sherm and Staley and Ford. But they have the next two drafts. They have young guys on the roster they like. The turnover is just part of football. But they can keep Jimmy, Deebo, Kittle, Buck, Bosa, McGlinchey, Armstead, Alexander, Warner, Tartt, Richburg, Juice, Hurd beyond 2021 easily. If they want to.

According to Jason Hurley if Sherman juice and ford were offered extensions or restructured their contract we could save even more cap space. I would say we probably lose ward and sanders (unless he takes a huge team friendly deal which is possible).

We can save a good amount of cap room by extending Juice, Sherm, and Tartt, and some by extending DeFo.

It'd be stupid to not bring back these 4, including Sherman

We can save about $36M this year by redoing JImmy, Dee and Staley's deals, I do have us redoing these guys plus Kwon and Richburg each year but that's only because I have no clue what kind of structure deals like DeFo, Kittle, and AA would be, those guys would have their deals restructured, likely more than 3 of the 5 I've mentioned.

We do have enough cap room/ability to retain Ward, Sanders, AA, plus extend Juice, Sherm, DeFo, Tartt, Kittle, K'Waun and Jones.

I highly doubt Staley is cut or retires, doubt Laken is cut either, he's been good for us. Ford stays IMO, Thomas I agree goodbye, Sherm stays, we need his leadership.

Also I wouldn't be surprised if they bring back Coleman, Shanny loves him.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Originally posted by rto66:

Originally posted by midrdan:

Originally posted by rto66:

Originally posted by DaBum:

Originally posted by rto66:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by rto66:

people said the same thing about armstead last year and clowney the year before.... but whatever apparently ford sucks and he should be released. once that happens ford becomes a hall of famer to everybody

Ford is actually one of those players who should be restructured down to the real role he plays. A part time nickel ER.

And look at the article on Buckner. You know he's a priority over AA. And if he already turned down $60M GTD, yikes.

yikes with what. armstead and buckner are friends. they will make sure both get paid. armstead thrives in this scheme and he doesnt want to leave. also jason hurley said we could reisgn both armstead and buckner and others if we restructure some contracts which we will for sure do. but nope everybodys negative and probably expect us to win 8 games next year. it is what it is with this whining fanbase

It is possible to afford AA and restructure. I explained all that a few weeks ago in an article. Question is, does it set them up for failure everywhere else?

They'd have more than $50 million a year tied to the four starters on the DL. That's 25+% of the salary cap going to 7.5% of your roster. When you add in other expensive players like Jimmy and Kittle after extension, you are looking at have $115 mil to sign 47 other guys. That's not even 2.5 mil per player.

So pay reserves nothing right? 49ers would have the worst depth in the league then and depth is massively important.

Even if the 49ers only average $1.5 mil per backup (not even 600k over minimum) that still leaves just $71.5 million for the remaining 18 starters (K, P included).

That's less than $4 mil per starter. You're not finding/keeping starters at that price. Most of the starters already cost more than that.

Basically, the 49ers could possibly afford everyone this year. Next year is a different story though. Paraag magic essentially back loads deals when the 49ers can get out as guaranteed is already paid. Ford is more expensive, DeFo is bound to be, AA is bound to be, Bosa goes up approximately 1.5 mil per year, Jimmy goes up ... It's not sustainable.

Sure the 49ers could cut Ford year and gain nearly $13 mil for the cap. That's not going to plug the holes that are bound to emerge and that will only really take care of the riding cap hits of other players.

I wish the 49ers could pay AA but it will destroy the rest of the team to do so. He's a luxury with the other DL the team has. It's as simple as that.

jason hurleys articles said otherwise but whatever. apparently the niners are screwed the next 5 seasons even though were not. but ok 8-8 next season

I figure this team comes back pretty much intact in 2020. Maybe they lose Ward and Sanders. They might cut Coleman. They will likely cut Goodwin and McKinnon. Assuming these cuts and Nzeocha is cut, the cap goes from $13 million to $26.5 million. Restructuring Jimmy bumps the cap to $44 million.

That's enough to resign Armstead ($16 per) and do a new deal for Kittle ($15 per) and sign our draft picks and maybe add a FA (or resign Ward).

The team might start to look different in 2021.

Ford is basically a two year contract. They can get out of it pretty cheap after 2020. They cut him or restructure. If cut, they save $11.2 million.

Sherman is in the final year of his deal. I don't see them keeping him at $13-15 million at age 33. So figure he is gone as well in 2020 (or he takes a pay cut, which is unlikely). If gone, they save $12 million.

Solomon Thomas is $8.5 million this year against the cap. He's not coming back (for that at least).

Tomlinson can be cut after 2020, saving $5.5 million.

Staley is likely playing his last year in 2020. Cutting him (retiring) saves $12 million in 2021.

So, basically with these five cuts you're looking at $50 million coming to us in 2021, not counting the projected spike in cap per team with the new CBA. New deals for Buckner, Warner and Tartt likely.

Buckner is already counting $14.5 million against the cap. A "huge" raise to $18 million a year is basically a $3.5 million bump from his current cap number.

Sure we gotta replace Sherm and Staley and Ford. But they have the next two drafts. They have young guys on the roster they like. The turnover is just part of football. But they can keep Jimmy, Deebo, Kittle, Buck, Bosa, McGlinchey, Armstead, Alexander, Warner, Tartt, Richburg, Juice, Hurd beyond 2021 easily. If they want to.

According to Jason Hurley if Sherman juice and ford were offered extensions or restructured their contract we could save even more cap space. I would say we probably lose ward and sanders (unless he takes a huge team friendly deal which is possible).

We can save a good amount of cap room by extending Juice, Sherm, and Tartt, and some by extending DeFo.

It'd be stupid to not bring back these 4, including Sherman

We can save about $36M this year by redoing JImmy, Dee and Staley's deals, I do have us redoing these guys plus Kwon and Richburg each year but that's only because I have no clue what kind of structure deals like DeFo, Kittle, and AA would be, those guys would have their deals restructured, likely more than 3 of the 5 I've mentioned.

We do have enough cap room/ability to retain Ward, Sanders, AA, plus extend Juice, Sherm, DeFo, Tartt, Kittle, K'Waun and Jones.

I was looking at his table on ninersnation when I realized you were him. Thanks for the information.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Also I wouldn't be surprised if they bring back Coleman, Shanny loves him.

Coleman over McKinnon all day.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

We can save a good amount of cap room by extending Juice, Sherm, and Tartt, and some by extending DeFo.

We can save about $36M this year by redoing JImmy, Dee and Staley's deals.

It seemed like the FO had no issues restructuring Richburg and Alexander. What is the likelihood Juice, Sherm, Tartt, Garoppolo, Dee and Staley restructure as well?

It sounds like Buckner is looking for top dollar too. How does that affect AA's outlook this year as well?

Middlekauff believes Buckner's representatives may be seeking a number closer to $70 million in guarantees.

Buckner's camp may be using Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Fletcher Cox's deal signed in 2016 as a comparable, says Middlekauff. That contract included $63 million guaranteed ... four years ago

That's not bad. I think Buckner should be slotted just under Grady Jarrett at $17M APY. Fletcher Cox is next at $17.1M.

That's great. That's $3M APY less than many thought. That puts Buckner and AA ($14.5M APY) right where I thought. Middlekauff thinks Kittle at $13M APY...I had $12M. That's perfect all around.

Originally posted by RTFirefly:
Silly me, I don't think we get rid of Sanders or Goodwin. If we go into next year with Deebo, Taylor, Bourne, Hurd, and Pettis I'm going to be pizzzzzzed.

If the choice is Sanders and Goodwin or Armstead that seems like a pretty easy call to me. I like Sanders and thought he was a great addition to the team but as I have said in previous posts Samuel looks as though he could easily replace the snaps that Sanders was getting, especially if Taylor comes back healthy. Goodwin was huge for us in his first year with the team but has hardly played since and whatever his personal issues have been I don't have any burning desire to see him or Pettis return. This is supposed to be a great draft for wide receivers so there should be an opportunity for them to find someone else if they decide that is a priority. My hope is that Hurd comes backs healthy and isn't plagued by continuing issues with his back. He and Samuel and Kittle and Taylor seem to all have a bit of dog in them that would make them a handful for just about any defensive back.

My hope with Armstead is that he doesn't turn out to be another Dana Stubblefield. That guy had like 12 sacks or something in a contract year and, as I recall, won the defensive player of the year award which he turned into a big payday with Washington where he didn't accomplish much. Turns out when people watched the film of that season something like six of his sacks came against some hapless player on the Rams during their two games. I think Armstead is probably better than Stubblefield and his game has been on the rise the past couple of years. I would probably put him and Ward, two of the webzone's favorite whipping boys during the early parts of their careers, at the top of the to do list with Armstead being the higher priority.

Originally posted by okdkid:

#49ers GM John Lynch says franchise tag remains an option for Arik Armstead but no decisions have been made.

— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) February 25, 2020

Well...no s**t. LOL.

I'd tag him and make him prove it another year.

Originally posted by okdkid:

#49ers GM John Lynch says franchise tag remains an option for Arik Armstead but no decisions have been made.

— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) February 25, 2020

If we trade armstead I want at least a first round pick. O still
Think it makes sense to extend him.

Originally posted by mayo49:

I'd tag him and make him prove it another year.

If we think we can can tag him and trade him for a first, we'd be crazy not to do that.

1. We Need the draft pick.

2. The cap has come home to roost, and we must make choices.

3. Restructuring the team comes home to roost too.

4. Arik had 9 sacs from 2015 through 2018, which is 2.25 per year.

5. There is a long history in the league where a player way over plays himself in a contract year, and then returns to form.

6. It is smart and the natural order of top teams in a cap environment to selectively replace talent with cheaper players on rookie contracts.

7. Assuming you are giving up AA's 2019 stats is imo not justified and unlikely.

8. The draft is rich in WR's and DB's, and a star there could be worth more to winning than AA.

9. We are getting back several solid DL players off IR this year.

10. To win Super Bowls, you have to keep yourself strong long term and get multiple bites at the apple, and nothing matters except winning Super Bowls,

11. We have no draft picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds.

12 We have several people we need to pay that really have earned it over multiple years.

13. You are risking seriously overpaying for a player who plays to his first round level one year out of five, and with league leading talent around him that year.

14. We need to keep cycling in young players whose talent exceeds the rookie pay scale to stay on top.

15 If we trade him, we have a say in where he goes.

16. We need the draft pick.

Originally posted by 49ers81:

Originally posted by RTFirefly:
Silly me, I don't think we get rid of Sanders or Goodwin. If we go into next year with Deebo, Taylor, Bourne, Hurd, and Pettis I'm going to be pizzzzzzed.

If the choice is Sanders and Goodwin or Armstead that seems like a pretty easy call to me. I like Sanders and thought he was a great addition to the team but as I have said in previous posts Samuel looks as though he could easily replace the snaps that Sanders was getting, especially if Taylor comes back healthy. Goodwin was huge for us in his first year with the team but has hardly played since and whatever his personal issues have been I don't have any burning desire to see him or Pettis return. This is supposed to be a great draft for wide receivers so there should be an opportunity for them to find someone else if they decide that is a priority. My hope is that Hurd comes backs healthy and isn't plagued by continuing issues with his back. He and Samuel and Kittle and Taylor seem to all have a bit of dog in them that would make them a handful for just about any defensive back.

My hope with Armstead is that he doesn't turn out to be another Dana Stubblefield. That guy had like 12 sacks or something in a contract year and, as I recall, won the defensive player of the year award which he turned into a big payday with Washington where he didn't accomplish much. Turns out when people watched the film of that season something like six of his sacks came against some hapless player on the Rams during their two games. I think Armstead is probably better than Stubblefield and his game has been on the rise the past couple of years. I would probably put him and Ward, two of the webzone's favorite whipping boys during the early parts of their careers, at the top of the to do list with Armstead being the higher priority.

1st round pick on WR = no IOL help or impactful secondary help in this year's draft. 5th round picks or lower can't be counted on.
Trade down, 2nd round pick on WR = it's possible. Would need to hit it for sure, needing top-end speed who can catch, not common no matter where you draft.
Maybe leaves us a 3rd rounder for IOL help. Risky but potentially works out.

Deebo had a terrific rookie year. He is not an issue. 2nd year and now teams know who he is and to plug the middle; not every receiver responds well to attention in 2nd year.

Hurd = 0 career yards, 1 injury missed season. No practical experience with playbook - formations, motions, blocking downfield, all the unusual stuff Kyle does in his playbook. And that's if he sticks at WR. RB/TE or some combo makes that a mighty task. Could be fantastic by the 2nd half of the season, but then again, you could say that about any rookie WR.

So we're counting on a 2nd year guy with 1 excellent year of 960 rushing and receiving, 1 guy who has never played, and a draft choice who may not even be top ten prospect in the draft. Plus Taylor and his career year of 430, 640 career yards. Plus Bourne. Plus Pettis.
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Unless we hit it with that draft pick, or with Hurd, we could be in big trouble with that WR group. No top-end speed, almost no experience, and almost no proven track record. Oy and vey.
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Goodwin for top-end speed, Sanders for experience and proven track record.
#1 pick for LSU center.
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Not ideal either. But I want that 1st round pick for IOL. Either that C, or trade down and draft a OG and a C with the resultant 2nd and 3rd.

Originally posted by 49ers81:

Originally posted by RTFirefly:
Silly me, I don't think we get rid of Sanders or Goodwin. If we go into next year with Deebo, Taylor, Bourne, Hurd, and Pettis I'm going to be pizzzzzzed.

If the choice is Sanders and Goodwin or Armstead that seems like a pretty easy call to me. I like Sanders and thought he was a great addition to the team but as I have said in previous posts Samuel looks as though he could easily replace the snaps that Sanders was getting, especially if Taylor comes back healthy. Goodwin was huge for us in his first year with the team but has hardly played since and whatever his personal issues have been I don't have any burning desire to see him or Pettis return. This is supposed to be a great draft for wide receivers so there should be an opportunity for them to find someone else if they decide that is a priority. My hope is that Hurd comes backs healthy and isn't plagued by continuing issues with his back. He and Samuel and Kittle and Taylor seem to all have a bit of dog in them that would make them a handful for just about any defensive back.

My hope with Armstead is that he doesn't turn out to be another Dana Stubblefield. That guy had like 12 sacks or something in a contract year and, as I recall, won the defensive player of the year award which he turned into a big payday with Washington where he didn't accomplish much. Turns out when people watched the film of that season something like six of his sacks came against some hapless player on the Rams during their two games. I think Armstead is probably better than Stubblefield and his game has been on the rise the past couple of years. I would probably put him and Ward, two of the webzone's favorite whipping boys during the early parts of their careers, at the top of the to do list with Armstead being the higher priority.

My computer was acting up when I typed up the first mess, so I'll try again.

TBH, I've been going back and forth on this for some time. I'd be more than happy to spend a 1st round pick on a WR. It's just that a combo of Deebo and him is going to be awfully, awfully young. And that leaves FA for IOL help of any quality.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Keep in mind that in the last dozen years or so, I've called for us to draft a WR 1st several times and my success rate to date is 0%. In fact, my prediction of the Niners 1st round pick in general in that time amounts to Nick Bosa.