Jacksonville Jaguar Arik Armstead-DT Thread

A few key points here. His tape is almost all negative or neutral. He flashes very very rarely. His size works against him because his hips are stiff as hell and he can't get low. He has bad change of direction. His bench was well below average for the position. His 40 was very average. All these people talking about his physical ability are smoking something strong. He has height, but his arms don't exactly match up. And because he's tall he struggles with leverage because his hips are no good.

The only thing he has going for him is the fact he wasn't very dedicated to football (wtf? this is a positive? I don't think so, but hey.. we can spin it) and he's young. And so with some refocused attention maybe he'll become a guy who can at least play in the NFL. Because he is currently not that and he's a long way from it.

Okoye has shown much more than this kid ever has and he's done it vs NFL competition. And he isn't very likely to make the team with or without Armstead.

We're probably going to be forced to cut a decent player because we drafted this kid on the hope he maybe one day gets it. He looks impressive in a picture, but that's about it thus far in his career. He has a long way to go.

My hope is he can become an average NFL player. If he does more than that, well, I'm all for it. I don't expect to see it any time soon though. Maybe in a couple years if he isn't already on the juice (he appears that he is IMO, but whatever) with some quality coaching. I fully expect he'll be out of the league in a few years.

Originally posted by GorefullBore:
It was kind of a weird 1st round in the sense that all of the "experts" were spot on in regard to who our selection was, usually they are so far off. It just doesn't feel right lol. Maybe Trent has been figured out lol.

Its no secret that we build our team around the defensive front 7, or that a big chunk of our existing group retired. Armstead was the highest upside DL prospect in the draft. I think it was pretty obvious that the 49ers draft plan was to wait and see if one of the big 3 WR fell to 15, and if not they would take Armstead. We even got 2 free mid round picks just for moving back 2 spots. Seems pretty well played to me.

I think Baalke understands the gravity of what this draft could mean to the future of this team. He wouldnt use a mid 1st rounder on a player he didnt think could become a pro bowl level talent on the 49ers. I think people just need to stop fixating on his perceived flaws, or lack of production in college, and realize that he has serious potential. Oregon isnt exactly known for their defense either. Its not like they had the brightest defensive minds in college football developing his game.

Jim Tomsula isnt going to let this kid bust. Heck, he got Ricky Jean-Francois a big contract. He knows how to maximize these guys' talents.

At the end of the day, Armstead's job is to essentially fill Justin Smith's role of occupying blockers so guys like Aldon and Lynch can rush the passer. He doesnt need to be the next Bruce Smith. Hes huge, and incredibly strong. Just clog up the middle and get your hands up to bat those passes.

Also, dont forget that he will be playing with Darnell Dockett, who played his entire career with Calais Campbell. Im sure Dockett will pass along some advice about Campbell's game.

Originally posted by Evilgenius:
A few key points here. His tape is almost all negative or neutral. He flashes very very rarely. His size works against him because his hips are stiff as hell and he can't get low. He has bad change of direction. His bench was well below average for the position. His 40 was very average. All these people talking about his physical ability are smoking something strong. He has height, but his arms don't exactly match up. And because he's tall he struggles with leverage because his hips are no good.

The only thing he has going for him is the fact he wasn't very dedicated to football (wtf? this is a positive? I don't think so, but hey.. we can spin it) and he's young. And so with some refocused attention maybe he'll become a guy who can at least play in the NFL. Because he is currently not that and he's a long way from it.

Okoye has shown much more than this kid ever has and he's done it vs NFL competition. And he isn't very likely to make the team with or without Armstead.

We're probably going to be forced to cut a decent player because we drafted this kid on the hope he maybe one day gets it. He looks impressive in a picture, but that's about it thus far in his career. He has a long way to go.

My hope is he can become an average NFL player. If he does more than that, well, I'm all for it. I don't expect to see it any time soon though. Maybe in a couple years if he isn't already on the juice (he appears that he is IMO, but whatever) with some quality coaching. I fully expect he'll be out of the league in a few years.

So what youre saying is, you know more about defensive line than Trent Baalke and Jim Tomsula? Because they had great things to say. But hey, YOU watched some tape and came up with some brilliant fan analysis. Better call Tomsula and give him the bad news.

Originally posted by StOnEy333:
Welcome to the 49ers Arik! Get ready to learn from some of the best in the business!

Wait! What's a positive comment doing in here?

One of the TV pundits mentioned that AA is great when he stays low. The Niners have a specific drill for this. The defensive lineman lines up under an apparatus with a low roof. He fires out under this. Perhaps this is what Tomsula believes will train AA correctly to be consistent in his approach and be consistently great.

Originally posted by Niners99:
He didnt produce results in college, but theres are TONS of cases where great NFL players looked average in college, or worse.

Hes still a 20 year old kid. He has all the tools to be a great player, and we have some of the best DL coaches in the NFL that will teach him NFL technique.

I dont get how 85% of the fans here are groaning over this pick, and how "terrible" it was, but at the same time praying for DGB tomorrow, who also has loads of talent, but didnt really live up to it in college.

Baalke has a pretty good track record selecting front 7 guys in the draft, especially in the first 5 rounds. Bowman, Aldon, Lynch, Borland, Dial, Tank, etc. Maybe we should give him the benefit of the doubt..

Originally posted by Niners99:
So what youre saying is, you know more about defensive line than Trent Baalke and Jim Tomsula? Because they had great things to say. But hey, YOU watched some tape and came up with some brilliant fan analysis. Better call Tomsula and give him the bad news.

Name one player who didn't do anything in college but went on to be a great NFL player - and it can't be due to injury.

What I'm saying is they looked at pictures of him, saw that he wasn't focused on football and imagine they can make him into something he currently isn't, and given his pretty lack luster measureables (especially change of direction) I'd say that's pretty hopeful.

Your argument isn't very compelling to me. As far as my ability to judge players - I'm pretty comfortable with how I've managed to evaluate in the past. I remember the zone up in arms about Aldon. I saw no reason for that at all as Aldon was a beast in college until he played the year on the broken leg (and was about as effective as Armstead was in a more difficult conference). Those who know me and my history, which isn't that many around here but on other boards... know I have a pretty good record. Just because I don't do this for a living, doesn't mean I couldn't do this for a living.

The NFL is an old boys club. There are A LOT of folks who got their foot in the door and kept it there by being loyal and good footsoldiers - and not because of their ability to draft. Now Baalke actually does have a pretty good track record evaluating certain positions. But he's missed plenty too. Trying to be the smartest guy in the room. Ward and Jenkins both immediately spring to mind. Although Ward has shown he's not awful, he hasn't shown he'll be any good either. And he really wasn't ready to play a big role last year. Hardly the kind of impact you want from your first round pick.

We already know for a fact that big egos caused problems for the team recently. I don't think anything I've said is unreasonable. If you have an actual point to refute, I'd love to hear it. But telling me Baalke must know what he's doing just because he's an NFL GM and I'm not is not a very compelling argument.


It would be one thing if this kid was a physical freak of nature. But he's really not. He's not even close. He's just tall. And that isn't always an advantage inside.

I also think sometimes players get hyped in high school, the hype sort of lives with them and then folks talk about them because they know them. They look at pictures and imagine teams will be interested because of age or whatever. Then all of sudden people decide to mock him to us because he's really young and 'looks' the part before the combine even happens - in part because he was a highly recruited player and also in part because his coaches have tried to sell him claiming he did his job perfectly etc (all coaches do this for their players you should generally ignore them unless they have something bad to say). It starts to become a self fulfilling prophecy just because the kids name is on peoples minds. And because of our recent loses/potential loses.

In the case of Armstead it's simply the team thinking they can make him what everyone thought he would be coming out of high school and that's the kind of pick you save for the later rounds IMO. Especially when the guy turns in a mildly disappointing combine at a position that demands physical tools.

Originally posted by Evilgenius:
I also think sometimes players get hyped in high school, the hype sort of lives with them and then folks talk about them because they know them. They look at pictures and imagine teams will be interested because of age or whatever. Then all of sudden people decide to mock him to us because he's really young and 'looks' the part before the combine even happens - in part because he was a highly recruited player and also in part because his coaches have tried to sell him claiming he did his job perfectly etc (all coaches do this for their players you should generally ignore them unless they have something bad to say). It starts to become a self fulfilling prophecy just because the kids name is on peoples minds. And because of our recent loses/potential loses.

In the case of Armstead it's simply the team thinking they can make him what everyone thought he would be coming out of high school and that's the kind of pick you save for the later rounds IMO. Especially when the guy turns in a mildly disappointing combine at a position that demands physical tools.

Youre basically suggesting that Trent Baalke doesnt know anything about scouting and drafting players. Because if he did, why would he used the 17th overall pick on a surefire bust?

You said Armstead cant bend and get low enough to be an effective DL in the NFL. Jim Tomsula said he does have that ability.

If youre going to say these things, you have to admit that you think you know more about scouting and drafting players than Baalke and Tomsula.

By the way, Armstead was ranked highly in general consensus among draft and scouting experts. If he wasnt taken at 17, or in the 1st, he wouldve been taken in the 2nd. I find it hard to believe that an entire industry would had this guy pegged as a top talent going into this draft if a random fan can watch tape and decipher that he will likely be out of the league in a couple years.

Originally posted by Niners99:
Youre basically suggesting that Trent Baalke doesnt know anything about scouting and drafting players. Because if he did, why would he used the 17th overall pick on a surefire bust?

You said Armstead cant bend and get low enough to be an effective DL in the NFL. Jim Tomsula said he does have that ability.

If youre going to say these things, you have to admit that you think you know more about scouting and drafting players than Baalke and Tomsula.

By the way, Armstead was ranked highly in general consensus among draft and scouting experts. If he wasnt taken at 17, or in the 1st, he wouldve been taken in the 2nd. I find it hard to believe that an entire industry would had this guy pegged as a top talent going into this draft if a random fan can watch tape and decipher that he will likely be out of the league in a couple years.

He didn't bend or get low hardly at all in college. Why would we think he could do it consistently in the pros? Because we think we can get him to change. Why couldn't his college coaches get him to change? Do you think they didn't know what they were doing? Do you think they are completely incompetent? His change of direction was horrible as evidenced by his workout at the combine. This indicates his hips are stiff - which would explain his struggle to get low. Your argument is not good and I'll happily turn it around on you if you want to continue to ignore the factual points made and just insist Baalke is infallible and I'm stupid or that the entire league even had him highly rated - that is also very very unlikely. The shuttle and cone are highly indicative of DL future success. There is a correlation that is measurable. It's hardly absolute, but it's there.

His absolute best case is a straight ahead mauler like Michael Johnson - who also has really stiff hips but has other physical skills and tools to make up for it - KIND OF. He got exposed pretty badly though in TB this year. The difference here though, is that his other physical tools aren't really above average (most are below) except for his vertical leap.

They saw his vert and thought - natural athlete, needs to hit the weights etc etc etc. Again, thinking they can turn him into something he isn't currently. Which makes him a project and hardly worthy of a first round pick.

What I'm saying is their egos are getting ahead of the facts. And it's hardly the first time I've seen it happen in the NFL.

Akili Smith was a top rated pick too. So were a bunch of other obvious busts.

Still waiting for you to list the great NFL players who did nothing in college (remember, no injuries).

Didnt really like this pick last night, and still dont this morning. At the same time as soon as Parker was taken I didnt love anyone. I would have been willing to fall out of the 1st entirely at that point, so at least we picked up some extra picks. I trust Balke and Tomsula to get him into a decent player at least, but I dont think he will be a home run. Hopefully we are able to do some more interesting things on day two.

To be honest I think we are going to be outclassed this year no matter who we draft. Seattle and Arizona have better rosters than us unless Kaepernick becomes a top 5 QB this year. So taking a guy who needs time isnt the worst thing, but I dont think he will be much help this year. I wouldnt be surprised to see more trade backs and more development type players drafted this year to try and rebuild for next year when we have a ton of talent leaving and should have some early picks for more polished impact players.

Originally posted by Evilgenius:

Originally posted by Niners99:
Youre basically suggesting that Trent Baalke doesnt know anything about scouting and drafting players. Because if he did, why would he used the 17th overall pick on a surefire bust?

You said Armstead cant bend and get low enough to be an effective DL in the NFL. Jim Tomsula said he does have that ability.

If youre going to say these things, you have to admit that you think you know more about scouting and drafting players than Baalke and Tomsula.

By the way, Armstead was ranked highly in general consensus among draft and scouting experts. If he wasnt taken at 17, or in the 1st, he wouldve been taken in the 2nd. I find it hard to believe that an entire industry would had this guy pegged as a top talent going into this draft if a random fan can watch tape and decipher that he will likely be out of the league in a couple years.

He didn't bend or get low hardly at all in college. Why would we think he could do it consistently in the pros? Because we think we can get him to change. Why couldn't his college coaches get him to change? Do you think they didn't know what they were doing? Do you think they are completely incompetent? His change of direction was horrible as evidenced by his workout at the combine. This indicates his hips are stiff - which would explain his struggle to get low. Your argument is not good and I'll happily turn it around on you if you want to continue to ignore the factual points made and just insist Baalke is infallible and I'm stupid or that the entire league even had him highly rated - that is also very very unlikely. The shuttle and cone are highly indicative of DL future success. There is a correlation that is measurable. It's hardly absolute, but it's there.

His absolute best case is a straight ahead mauler like Michael Johnson - who also has really stiff hips but has other physical skills and tools to make up for it - KIND OF. He got exposed pretty badly though in TB this year. The difference here though, is that his other physical tools aren't really above average (most are below) except for his vertical leap.

They saw his vert and thought - natural athlete, needs to hit the weights etc etc etc. Again, thinking they can turn him into something he isn't currently. Which makes him a project and hardly worthy of a first round pick.

What I'm saying is their egos are getting ahead of the facts. And it's hardly the first time I've seen it happen in the NFL.

Akili Smith was a top rated pick too. So were a bunch of other obvious busts.

Still waiting for you to list the great NFL players who did nothing in college (remember, no injuries).

Jim Tomsula has too good of a track record for getting DL to outperform their draft value for me to just dismiss this kid because of cone drills. Im not predicting he doesnt bust, im just saying we should wait longer than 24 hours to dismiss the pick. Hes 20 years old. He could be a completely different player after just a couple years with an NFL coaching staff. How can you decide the fate of a 20 year old raw prospect based on the combine and 19 college starts?

And any player taken in the 5th round or later usually didnt do a whole ton in college, and there are plenty of examples of those players making it in the NFL. There are undrafted free agents that make it.

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by Evilgenius:
A few key points here. His tape is almost all negative or neutral. He flashes very very rarely. His size works against him because his hips are stiff as hell and he can't get low. He has bad change of direction. His bench was well below average for the position. His 40 was very average. All these people talking about his physical ability are smoking something strong. He has height, but his arms don't exactly match up. And because he's tall he struggles with leverage because his hips are no good.

The only thing he has going for him is the fact he wasn't very dedicated to football (wtf? this is a positive? I don't think so, but hey.. we can spin it) and he's young. And so with some refocused attention maybe he'll become a guy who can at least play in the NFL. Because he is currently not that and he's a long way from it.

Okoye has shown much more than this kid ever has and he's done it vs NFL competition. And he isn't very likely to make the team with or without Armstead.

We're probably going to be forced to cut a decent player because we drafted this kid on the hope he maybe one day gets it. He looks impressive in a picture, but that's about it thus far in his career. He has a long way to go.

My hope is he can become an average NFL player. If he does more than that, well, I'm all for it. I don't expect to see it any time soon though. Maybe in a couple years if he isn't already on the juice (he appears that he is IMO, but whatever) with some quality coaching. I fully expect he'll be out of the league in a few years.

So what youre saying is, you know more about defensive line than Trent Baalke and Jim Tomsula? Because they had great things to say. But hey, YOU watched some tape and came up with some brilliant fan analysis. Better call Tomsula and give him the bad news.

Let Tomsula know that Okoye is apparently way better, maybe even more so than Watt.

Originally posted by Niners99:
Jim Tomsula has too good of a track record for getting DL to outperform their draft value for me to just dismiss this kid because of cone drills. Im not predicting he doesnt bust, im just saying we should wait longer than 24 hours to dismiss the pick. Hes 20 years old. He could be a completely different player after just a couple years with an NFL coaching staff. How can you decide the fate of a 20 year old raw prospect based on the combine and 19 college starts?

And any player taken in the 5th round or later usually didnt do a whole ton in college, and there are plenty of examples of those players making it in the NFL. There are undrafted free agents that make it.

Name one. I'll be waiting. Most of those UDFAs you speak about actually did do something in college. Scouts just weren't convinced it would translate to the pros for whatever reason - usually a small school consideration. Sometimes red flags that aren't football related.

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by NCommand:
#4 on Mayock's draft board and only 20 years old.

Just to clarify. He was Mayock's number for interior lineman on Mayock's board.

And to further clarify he was also #14 on Mayocks top 100.

Originally posted by lucky_49:
if we didn't draft him he would have been like a third rounder

Assumptions are not facts.

Originally posted by Evilgenius:

Originally posted by Niners99:
Youre basically suggesting that Trent Baalke doesnt know anything about scouting and drafting players. Because if he did, why would he used the 17th overall pick on a surefire bust?

You said Armstead cant bend and get low enough to be an effective DL in the NFL. Jim Tomsula said he does have that ability.

If youre going to say these things, you have to admit that you think you know more about scouting and drafting players than Baalke and Tomsula.

By the way, Armstead was ranked highly in general consensus among draft and scouting experts. If he wasnt taken at 17, or in the 1st, he wouldve been taken in the 2nd. I find it hard to believe that an entire industry would had this guy pegged as a top talent going into this draft if a random fan can watch tape and decipher that he will likely be out of the league in a couple years.

He didn't bend or get low hardly at all in college. Why would we think he could do it consistently in the pros? Because we think we can get him to change. Why couldn't his college coaches get him to change? Do you think they didn't know what they were doing? Do you think they are completely incompetent? His change of direction was horrible as evidenced by his workout at the combine. This indicates his hips are stiff - which would explain his struggle to get low. Your argument is not good and I'll happily turn it around on you if you want to continue to ignore the factual points made and just insist Baalke is infallible and I'm stupid or that the entire league even had him highly rated - that is also very very unlikely. The shuttle and cone are highly indicative of DL future success. There is a correlation that is measurable. It's hardly absolute, but it's there.

His absolute best case is a straight ahead mauler like Michael Johnson - who also has really stiff hips but has other physical skills and tools to make up for it - KIND OF. He got exposed pretty badly though in TB this year. The difference here though, is that his other physical tools aren't really above average (most are below) except for his vertical leap.

They saw his vert and thought - natural athlete, needs to hit the weights etc etc etc. Again, thinking they can turn him into something he isn't currently. Which makes him a project and hardly worthy of a first round pick.

What I'm saying is their egos are getting ahead of the facts. And it's hardly the first time I've seen it happen in the NFL.

Akili Smith was a top rated pick too. So were a bunch of other obvious busts.

Still waiting for you to list the great NFL players who did nothing in college (remember, no injuries).

Evil is completely right, unfortunately for us.

Even of his measurables weren't great the biggest knock on him is the worst, and that's the questioning of his heart. Players can be coached up, but it's highly unlikely if they don't have the dedication to put in the time.

At least with the Ward pick you could turn on his college game tape and see him doing a lot of good things. With Armstead it's the exact opposite. Always fired off the ball late, stiff hips, doesn't use is hands to disengage OL, no mean streak, horrible agility, not strong, and questionable dedication.....f**k....he has 4th or 5th round talent, at best.

Edit: most of the members that have read my posts know that im a pretty positive in general, so it's not like im bashing the pick just to "stir the pot"