Originally posted by dj43:
That was always the problem with Peters; he would make one great play but on the next series would gamble and miss. That is why Kendall Fuller rates so far above him (30 versus 78). Though he doesn't make the spectacular plays Peters made on occasion, he doesn't give up the huge plays by gambling.
It kind of reminds of the debate regarding going for it on 4th down and not punting. A lot of statistics support going for it, and playing football as a boom or bust style. Going for 2 pt conversions etc. There are analytics supporting maximizing possessions over field control. Ofcourse that only works in offensive games, not defensive slug fests like the SB.
But in 55-52 game, yes you'd prefer risk-taking defensive players to maximize possessions. You see more analysis of this stuff on the college level where shoot outs are more normal. The stats on shoot outs is even if a cornerback is able to shutdown a player, the team will have so many more weapons it will still inevitably score.
I don't think NFL has arrived at the pure shootouts though. Regular season sometimes, yes. But playoffs....no.
But is interesting stuff looking at the deep math on possessions and changing conventional ways of playing. When you look at it, yes turnovers are incredibly valuable. There's a reason why over time teams that win TO battle often win. The numerical value you can assign to a turnover is incredibly high.
[ Edited by SunDevilNiner79 on Feb 5, 2019 at 11:19 AM ]