WR Marquise "Flash" Goodwin (traded to PHI)

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

You guys are all way to turned on by speed. Look up the top 10 fastest receivers ever and see how bad their careers were. I'm not saying that some speed is important but sub 4.3 is not necessary and in fact doesn't translate to great numbers. The sweet spot seems to be in the 4.4-4.5 range which is still fast. The idea that you're going to line up and run past a defender is a fantasy unless the defender is old and slow. Corners often have just as much speed as receivers if not more. I'll take a guy with decent size , good but not blazing speed that knows how to run routes. They get open more often. Truth is, most QBs can't throw the ball deep enough to really use all that speed. Either that or they don't have the time.

Blah blah blah go look at whatever

No one is asking him to be some guys WR1.

Name me all the CBs that a 4.27? He just beat the fastest CB in a 40 dash this past summer...Kid requires safety help regardless if you're planning on throwing him the ball deep every play.

It's all about spacing with speed. There's a reason kyle has always had a burner on his team. The safety can't cheat down into the middle of the field he's GOT to respect the speed because there aren't many of any CBs that can run with him.

Originally posted by RTFirefly:

Over 1000 yds. in 2017 before he got hurt. With Jimmy G., 99, 106, 124 (10 of it rushing), 37, 38.

Yeah just bad mouth the guy and try to trade him for a 5th. Cuz we're loaded with 1000 yd. receivers on our team - Bourne, Hurd, Taylor, Pettis.

I'd be more than happy to keep him if we didn't need cap relief.

Originally posted by RTFirefly:
Over 1000 yds. in 2017 before he got hurt. With Jimmy G., 99, 106, 124 (10 of it rushing), 37, 38.

Yeah just bad mouth the guy and try to trade him for a 5th. Cuz we're loaded with 1000 yd. receivers on our team - Bourne, Hurd, Taylor, Pettis.

what?

oh, combined yards...

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

You guys are all way to turned on by speed. Look up the top 10 fastest receivers ever and see how bad their careers were. I'm not saying that some speed is important but sub 4.3 is not necessary and in fact doesn't translate to great numbers. The sweet spot seems to be in the 4.4-4.5 range which is still fast. The idea that you're going to line up and run past a defender is a fantasy unless the defender is old and slow. Corners often have just as much speed as receivers if not more. I'll take a guy with decent size , good but not blazing speed that knows how to run routes. They get open more often. Truth is, most QBs can't throw the ball deep enough to really use all that speed. Either that or they don't have the time.

Blah blah blah go look at whatever

No one is asking him to be some guys WR1.

Name me all the CBs that a 4.27? He just beat the fastest CB in a 40 dash this past summer...Kid requires safety help regardless if you're planning on throwing him the ball deep every play.

It's all about spacing with speed. There's a reason kyle has always had a burner on his team. The safety can't cheat down into the middle of the field he's GOT to respect the speed because there aren't many of any CBs that can run with him.

Exactly another reason the Chiefs beat us. S's cheating down with no fear of us running a 9 or post past/behind them. Hell, imagine if we had speed all year and JG was able to build timing/chemistry with that player and Kyle dialed them up far more. Sanders showed HIS speed alone can destroy 2 safeties. Goodwin would have been 10 yards behind them.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Blah blah blah go look at whatever

No one is asking him to be some guys WR1.

Name me all the CBs that a 4.27? He just beat the fastest CB in a 40 dash this past summer...Kid requires safety help regardless if you're planning on throwing him the ball deep every play.

It's all about spacing with speed. There's a reason kyle has always had a burner on his team. The safety can't cheat down into the middle of the field he's GOT to respect the speed because there aren't many of any CBs that can run with him.

The speed of these guys just doesn't translate to production. Look it up. None of the top receivers are in that sub 4.3 range. Not saying they can't occasionally break one but Sanders got deep a few times and he isn't near that speed. When he got open Jimmy under threw the ball and he had to wait for it or overthrew like he did in the SB. Those super deep throws aren'y high percentage throws. I also suspect that most of the sub 4.3 guys can't carry that speed too the field since many of them are on the smaller side. The extra weight of that uni probably slows them more than a bigger guy. I agree that they can stretch the field and open it up underneath but I don't know how important that is in a quick hitting motion offense like Kyle runs.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

The speed of these guys just doesn't translate to production. Look it up. None of the top receivers are in that sub 4.3 range. Not saying they can't occasionally break one but Sanders got deep a few times and he isn't near that speed. When he got open Jimmy under threw the ball and he had to wait for it or overthrew like he did in the SB. Those super deep throws aren'y high percentage throws. I also suspect that most of the sub 4.3 guys can't carry that speed too the field since many of them are on the smaller side. The extra weight of that uni probably slows them more than a bigger guy. I agree that they can stretch the field and open it up underneath but I don't know how important that is in a quick hitting motion offense like Kyle runs.

Hill is doing okay. Fuller is doing just fine. Brandin cooks is doing just fine. DJax has been just fine.

Again it's not just about production, it's based around what they can do for you scheme. That's my whole pt.

Elite speed spreads out a defense. Plain and simple. It helps the whole passing game.

It's a copycat league and a team with express speed at WR just won the SB.

Someone will bite.

Originally posted by JaggedJ:

It's a copycat league and a team with express speed at WR just won the SB.

Someone will bite.

Good way of looking at it. A team will see that he, literally, has his house in order now, is healthy and still has top end speed and experience in a complex offense and will want to tap into that much more than Kyle did, who, virtually used him as a decoy to run Kittle underneath him all day, every day.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Hill is doing okay. Fuller is doing just fine. Brandin cooks is doing just fine. DJax has been just fine.

Again it's not just about production, it's based around what they can do for you scheme. That's my whole pt.

Elite speed spreads out a defense. Plain and simple. It helps the whole passing game.

You're missing 2 important points. It's often pointed out on this forum that Jimmy doesn't have enough time to throw because our O line isn't great in the interior. It takes a receiver close to 5 seconds to get 45-50 yards downfield. If JG only has 3 or 4 seconds tops then it makes it kind of hard to throw that deep. The other point is that many if not most of the really deep passes are because the QB buys time with his legs. Mahomes, Murray, Wilson, Jackson etc. Jimmy can't buy a lot of time with his legs. His game is more quick release timing routes. which he does well.

Our DBs aren't super fast but they did a good job at keeping all that KC speed in check The long pass to Hill wasn't the speed as much as the mix up in the with the d backs. He found a big hole in the middle of the backs. The long pass that beat Sherman was about speed or more the lack of it. Sherman doesn't have it anymore and even Watson was able to beat him straight up.

I'm not against having a guy like Goodwin but I would prefer one with better hands and a little more size. Keep in mind that this whole thing is about whether we should keep him or trade him is because of the salary cap. If it comes down to keeping Sanders, AA and Ward but trading Goodwin then there's no question about what I would do. If we could easily fit him under the cap it would be a different story. If we don't sign Sanders then that changes things again. Then the draft could change it even more. My guess is we try and get a trade lined up that we do on draft day if it looks like a receiver we like is dropping into our lap.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Hill is doing okay. Fuller is doing just fine. Brandin cooks is doing just fine. DJax has been just fine.

Again it's not just about production, it's based around what they can do for you scheme. That's my whole pt.

Elite speed spreads out a defense. Plain and simple. It helps the whole passing game.

You're missing 2 important points. It's often pointed out on this forum that Jimmy doesn't have enough time to throw because our O line isn't great in the interior. It takes a receiver close to 5 seconds to get 45-50 yards downfield. If JG only has 3 or 4 seconds tops then it makes it kind of hard to throw that deep. The other point is that many if not most of the really deep passes are because the QB buys time with his legs. Mahomes, Murray, Wilson, Jackson etc. Jimmy can't buy a lot of time with his legs. His game is more quick release timing routes. which he does well.

I'm not against having a guy like Goodwin but I would prefer one with better hands and a little more size. Keep in mind that this whole thing is about whether we should keep him or trade him is because of the salary cap. If it comes down to keeping Sanders, AA and Ward but trading Goodwin then there's no question about what I would do. If we could easily fit him under the cap it would be a different story. If we don't sign Sanders then that changes things again. Then the draft could change it even more. My guess is we try and get a trade lined up that we do on draft day if it looks like a receiver we like is dropping into our lap.

When targeting a deep vertical route, a QB doesn't wait until the WR is 40 yards downfield to let it rip. The WR is about 20 yards downfield, then the QB leads the WR the rest of the way. Even on 50+ yard bombs this is the case.

Originally posted by thl408:
When targeting a deep vertical route, a QB doesn't wait until the WR is 40 yards downfield to let it rip. The WR is about 20 yards downfield, then the QB leads the WR the rest of the way. Even on 50+ yard bombs this is the case.

That may be true but how often do you actually see those plays. They don't happen a lot unless it's a broken play. Wilson and Mahomes get a lot of those because they scramble around but straight drop back and heave it 40 yards or more are rare unless it's a hail Mary.

Originally posted by JaggedJ:
It's a copycat league and a team with express speed at WR just won the SB.

Someone will bite.

I think the QB is the main reason it worked, hard to copy the best QB in the league right now

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by thl408:
When targeting a deep vertical route, a QB doesn't wait until the WR is 40 yards downfield to let it rip. The WR is about 20 yards downfield, then the QB leads the WR the rest of the way. Even on 50+ yard bombs this is the case.

That may be true but how often do you actually see those plays. They don't happen a lot unless it's a broken play. Wilson and Mahomes get a lot of those because they scramble around but straight drop back and heave it 40 yards or more are rare unless it's a hail Mary.

It happens all the time on deep throws. When a deep post is targeted, the QB never waits until the WR is 35 yards downfield, that's too late with regards to timing - the pass would be underthrown. Here's the Goodwin bomb from CJB. Goodwin is about 20 yards downfield (from the line of scrimmage) when CJ lets it go.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by thl408:
When targeting a deep vertical route, a QB doesn't wait until the WR is 40 yards downfield to let it rip. The WR is about 20 yards downfield, then the QB leads the WR the rest of the way. Even on 50+ yard bombs this is the case.

That may be true but how often do you actually see those plays. They don't happen a lot unless it's a broken play. Wilson and Mahomes get a lot of those because they scramble around but straight drop back and heave it 40 yards or more are rare unless it's a hail Mary.

It happens all the time on deep throws. When a deep post is targeted, the QB never waits until the WR is 35 yards downfield, that's too late with regards to timing - the pass would be underthrown. Here's the Goodwin bomb from CJB. Goodwin is about 20 yards downfield (from the line of scrimmage) when CJ lets it go.

It is unfair to use logic and evidence to demonstrate the truth to a doubting Thomas.

Originally posted by Goatie:
It is unfair to use logic and evidence to demonstrate the truth to a doubting Thomas.

I'm not saying that's the way they throw it, I'm saying it doesn't happen a lot. I found a website called Grantland where they did an actual study of where the passes are thrown and how often they are completed.

There were only 175 passes all year by the entire league where the receiver was 40 yards or more downfield. Only 47 were completed. That's for the entire league. The completion % was 27.9 for 20+ yards to the left sideline, 38% down the middle at 20+ and 30.6 for the right side.

Under 20 yards was above 50% and under 10 yards was close to 70% across the board.
Teams only threw the ball beyond 20 yards 3.6% to the left, 1% down the middle and 4.2% to the right

These numbers can vary from year to year but it doesn't change that much There's a clear reason why most teams use the shorter passing game. With about a one in three chance of completion and a higher INT rate it's too risky in most situations. Thebig bombs make the highlights but the shorter game is more reliable.

I like speed as much as anyone but I still want a good receiver over a guy that wins the underwear Olympics. Now if he's as good as Jerry Rice or Larry Fitzgerald and runs 4.28 then that's something a different story. Problem is I haven't seen a guy like that. Unless you have a lot of quality receivers and room under the cap, most teams can't afford a high priced decoy to stretch the field.