Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by dsmith_49erz:
Both 3rd rounders, no math required
Did that seriously make sense in your head?
3rd round positions that were 30 picks apart from each other are essentially the same value? Yeah, no. But people need to be careful about thinking about trading a third round pick for a second round pick next year because of the same reasoning. Thinking in terms of what round a player is picked in is okay for a rough idea of their value to teams, but the reality is that there is a generally continuous drop of in value as you go down, not a sudden drop at each round and leveling off in that round.
Is trading for a second round pick
significantly better than staying with an early 3rd round pick? It depends. The 9ers traded away the 67th pick this year. If the Saints are really good in the 2017 season, the 9ers could end up with say the 62nd pick in the second round of the next draft. That means they would have dropped nine spots in this year's draft to move up five spots next year. Hard to say if that jump up five is worth the fall down nine slots this year. Maybe, maybe not.
BUT, if the Saints have an average season this year, then the 9ers may end up having swapped a 67th pick for something like a 48th pick. That for sure would be a significant improvement in value even taking into account the moving down of nine slots this year. If the Saints don't play very well this year then the 9ers could potentially move up to something like the 38th slot next year. Whoohoo! That would make this an extremely good trade.
[ Edited by 49erphan on May 4, 2017 at 6:41 AM ]