Andrew Luck

At 28 years old Andrew Luck certainly has a lot left in the tank if he can get healthy and stay healthy. He has proven that he can be one of the best quarterbacks in the league and has three 11-5 seasons under his belt. The past two seasons haven't been great for the Colts in the win column, but last year Luck posted career highs in pass completion and average, despite being sacked a career matching 41 times. His QB rating was also only .1 down on his career high and he managed 31 TDs and over 4000 passing yards. So the guy is clearly a top tier quarterback and if we were offered him for two or three first round picks then I would say it would be worth the risk acquiring him because when he gets good protection from his O-Line, is surrounded by talented play makers, and gets help from his defense - then this team will be heading towards being a contender again.

The counter argument to trading for Luck is to draft a quarterback in 2018 because it is likely we are going to have one of the top picks in the draft. Now on the one hand there are some highly touted QBs in college right now getting attention for the first overall pick: Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Josh Allen. If we go down this route we can keep our other picks and build a contender in that way. It would require more patience and time because it is unlikely a rookie quarterback is going to elevate this team to contender status on his own, but as long as the team picks the right quarterback and they make the transition, the team can have long term success built around that new franchise quarterback. And based on the hype the 2018 QB class is getting, it makes having a bad 2017 season bearable, and that is possibly why the Colts (or Redskins with Cousins) could be tempted to try and persuade us to give up a high draft pick for their quarterback because they can get their replacement in the 2018 draft. However, there are two main issues with being obsessed with the 2018 draft class:

1. There is no guarantee that Darnold, Rosen, or Allen will all declare for the 2018 draft. If I'm not mistaken they are all eligible to return for another year and we have seen quarterbacks do that in the past. I would say it is unlikely all three return, however if the guy you really like returns and the other two declare you might not get the quarterback you really want.
2. There is no guarantee that Darnold, Rosen, or Allen will make the transition to the NFL. We have seen many quarterbacks down the years enter the league with lots of hype yet some of them have never lived up to that hype.

So as nice as it would be to have the choice between three highly rated quarterback prospects in next year's draft class, there is risk attach to the draft because people don't always declare or turn out as hoped. That is why some people might view trading for Andrew Luck or Kirk Cousins as the safer option because you know what you are going to get. Now there is no guarantee that a veteran quarterback will have success here with us, so trading for them is risky and you are also potentially boosting a rival with those draft picks, but at least you know what you are potentially getting in Andrew Luck (an MVP contender) and Kirk Cousins (a prolific passer) whereas you don't with the rookie quarterback because they may or may not make it.

The other thing to bear in mind when you trade multiple first round picks is that you should realistically only be giving up one top pick (i.e. 2018) and the other first round picks should be in the second half of the first round. Why? Because the bet is that a healthy Andrew Luck will take this team back to the play offs and title contention, and if that occurs, then sacrificing one top pick and one or two late first round picks is worth that. Now of course if Luck continues to struggle with his health and/or the team doesn't win many games, then those future first round picks could end up being top picks like the Redskins/Rams trade. I'm pretty sure that the Redskins never expected the third and final first round pick in 2014 was going to end up being the second overall in the draft, after RGIII's rookie year they probably expected to be trading two future late first round picks. With that said, you don't make trades like this and think you will fail, you make them because you think you are going to win, and with Andrew Luck (and to an extent Kirk Cousins) you make that trade because you believe you are going to win.

Would I trade two or three first round picks for Andrew Luck? Yes, because I still believe he can be one of the best quarterbacks in the league. All we would have to do at that point is make sure we get the O-Line sorted, surround him with play makers, and get the defense playing well. If we can do that, we can win a championship in the near future with Andrew Luck as our quarterback. Now we might be able to win a championship with one of the 2018 rookie QB draft class, and we might even be able to sign Kirk Cousins in free agency and win a championship, but in my opinion if we can get Andrew Luck that would be a great option for this team. The Alex Smith pick is still fresh in the memory banks and he never really became the guy we wanted. I wouldn't want to see us pick wrong again and end up with a Blake Bortles like quarterback when we could have traded for Andrew Luck or even Kirk Cousins. Then again, if we wait and draft a quarterback, I will get behind them all the way. But my personal preference would be to go for Andrew Luck if it is a realistic possibility.

Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by baltien:

Originally posted by toppdogg32:
A 2018 1st., and a 2019 2nd.. , and dats it. We can save $$$$ from a bidding war/pissing contest for Cousins, and have a young moldable talent. Fixes our situation NOW, this year can go from rebuild to transition within it.

This is in line with my thinking. A first in 2018, a second in 2019, and MAYBE throw in an additional (2019) third or fourth rounder to seal the deal.

I like Luck, and I think he'd kill it in Shanny's system, but no way would I give up multiple firsts for him.

FWIW though, it doesn't matter who signs Cousins. He's going to be paid at the top of his position come the off-season.

That's just the market.

You guys are out of your minds if you think a 1st and a 2nd are all it would take for Andrew Luck.

Sam Bradford was traded for a 1st rounder and a future 4th rounder.

Alex Smith was traded for a 2nd rounder and a future 2nd rounder.

Yet, somehow, Andrew Luck is only worth a 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder? Yeah sorry, but you guys are not operating in reality. Andrew Luck is twice the QB that either of those two are, yet he is only worth marginally more than them?

OK, lol.

There's actually a pretty big difference between "a 1st rounder" and a top 3 pick. There's a HUGE difference between "a 2nd rounder" and a top 3 pick.

Understood, and my point still stands. Andrew Luck is a far more valuable quarterback than Alex Smith or Sam Bradford were when they were traded. So what it would take for Luck should be exponentially more than the other two.

Very long post, Mike....but very well stated. Wholeheartedly agree.

Andrew Luck NFL trade rumors: 49ers, Broncos eyeing the QB?

If Andrew Luck truly is unhappy in Indianapolis, as several NFL rumors suggested this past week, then a trade from the Colts to either the Broncos or 49ers could come to fruition.

Those two teams specifically are interested in Luck's services if he, indeed, wants out.
ESPN's Mike Greenberg first discussed Luck's alleged displeasure with the direction of the Colts' franchise.

"In the meantime, I don't know if I want to use the word rumor, but there's a general sense you hear from people around the league, if you talk to people who cover the sport of football right now, that there is an ever-widening gap between Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts," Greenberg said. "That his unhappiness and perhaps some familial unhappiness, if you will, stems back beyond this and that maybe he felt that he'd played when he wasn't 100 percent healthy. He's not playing now, and that there's some talk with even that enormous contract and his enormous talent, that we could be seeing, right before our eyes, the end of the Andrew Luck era in Indianapolis."

According to Bleacher Report, Lucks is said to be "concerned" about his future in Indianapolis, about "whether the franchise will ever put the proper pieces around him," according to an anonymous Colts teammate.

Denver and San Francisco
Luck is very much a "West Coast guy," having played college football at Stanford. Two NFL teams with ties to Stanford, and more importantly – with quarterback issues – are the Broncos and 49ers.

John Elway, of course, went to Stanford and Luck has been compared to him time and time again throughout his collegiate and pro career. Elway was hired as the vice president of football operations months ahead of the 2012 NFL Draft and Elway's dream was to make Luck the face of the Broncos' franchise at that time. The Broncos were never in place to get to the top of the 2012 NFL Draft to pick Luck, however, thanks to Tebow-mania and a playoff run.

Elway is very much a realist when it comes to Denver's QB situation – the reason he traded away Tebow and let Brock Osweiler walk out the door – so it's highly unlikely he believes Trevor Siemian is the long-term answer at quarterback.

If Luck is available, expect Elway to go all in on attempting to get him to Denver.

The Broncos' salary cap issues have been a tad overblown in recent years, even despite having to pay back a loan from the NFL from 2011 and 2012. If they wanted to trade Luck, they would have to do an NBA-style deal and send players to Indy to create cap space – but it can be done.

The other obvious team that would jump at Luck if he's on the block is the 49ers.

It's long been rumored that Kirk Cousins will eventually wind up in San Fran, but even Cousins uber-fan Kyle Shanahan knows that Cousins is limited and that he is in no way in the category of a Luck. There's also still no guarantee that the Redskins – Cousins marriage will cease next offseason.

The Stanford – 49ers ties run deep, obviously, as Shanahan is an extended branch of the Bill Walsh coaching tree, and John Lynch is a Stanford alum like Luck.

As bad as the 49ers' current situation is, they may be closer to becoming a contender again than the Colts currently are. Indy has badly botched its drafts the past few years and Chuck Pagano could be fired as soon as next month. If Pagano is canned, look for Luck to take the entire year off.

By Matt Burke
Published : September 17, 2017 (link to article: https://www.metro.us/sports/andrew-luck-nfl-trade-rumors-49ers-broncos-eyeing-the-qb)

I'm staying the course with Cousins. It's certainly interesting but Cousins won't cost us any picks which will be high and useful.

Originally posted by tjd808185:
I'm staying the course with Cousins. It's certainly interesting but Cousins won't cost us any picks which will be high and useful.

But will it take offering Cousins a bigger contract than Luck is currently on?

Originally posted by JustinNiner:

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by jersey49er:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
was watching GMFB this AM and they brought up the hypothetical....if you're SF would you give up 3 1st rd picks for Luck??? 3 said yes one said no

Thoughts

3 is steep, maybe 2 and change and I'm down but I said an offer earlier in the thread of next years top pick, our 3rd, AA and Tartt for Luck, they get 2 young defensive starters and their future QB..

3 firsts? Yes. A thousand times yes.

3 firsts? really? Luck is good but not that good and he is injured alot. Giving up that much for someone has missed so much time is too much of a risk. I would say a 1st and 2nd

3 firsts is what he (would) have garnered pre-draft...just look at what the skins gave up that year to move into the #2 spot behind indy to get rg3

I would trade the next 3 first round picks for him without batting an eye. Luck/Shannahan/Lynch leadership would be a godsend.

Originally posted by 9erguy:
I would trade the next 3 first round picks for him without batting an eye. Luck/Shannahan/Lynch leadership would be a godsend.

CHAMPIONSHIP

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by baltien:

Originally posted by toppdogg32:

A 2018 1st., and a 2019 2nd.. , and dats it. We can save $$$$ from a bidding war/pissing contest for Cousins, and have a young moldable talent. Fixes our situation NOW, this year can go from rebuild to transition within it.

This is in line with my thinking. A first in 2018, a second in 2019, and MAYBE throw in an additional (2019) third or fourth rounder to seal the deal.

I like Luck, and I think he'd kill it in Shanny's system, but no way would I give up multiple firsts for him.

FWIW though, it doesn't matter who signs Cousins. He's going to be paid at the top of his position come the off-season.

That's just the market.

You guys are out of your minds if you think a 1st and a 2nd are all it would take for Andrew Luck.

Sam Bradford was traded for a 1st rounder and a future 4th rounder.

Alex Smith was traded for a 2nd rounder and a future 2nd rounder.

Yet, somehow, Andrew Luck is only worth a 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder? Yeah sorry, but you guys are not operating in reality. Andrew Luck is twice the QB that either of those two are, yet he is only worth marginally more than them?

OK, lol.

There's actually a pretty big difference between "a 1st rounder" and a top 3 pick. There's a HUGE difference between "a 2nd rounder" and a top 3 pick.

Understood, and my point still stands. Andrew Luck is a far more valuable quarterback than Alex Smith or Sam Bradford were when they were traded. So what it would take for Luck should be exponentially more than the other two.

I get your point, but I disagree. Trade value isn't something that never changes. If Bradford or Alex Smith were traded today, do you think they would fetch the same price?

Luck is good, but he's coming off a major injury.

Three firsts (as some have suggested) is way too much for him.

Originally posted by Rocket4989:

Originally posted by 9erguy:

I would trade the next 3 first round picks for him without batting an eye. Luck/Shannahan/Lynch leadership would be a godsend.

CHAMPIONSHIP

Maybe Two 1st Rd. If he was healthy there would've no questions asked. But since he has been injured there might be some wiggle room.

Originally posted by DonaldTrump:

Originally posted by JustinNiner:

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by jersey49er:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
was watching GMFB this AM and they brought up the hypothetical....if you're SF would you give up 3 1st rd picks for Luck??? 3 said yes one said no

Thoughts

3 is steep, maybe 2 and change and I'm down but I said an offer earlier in the thread of next years top pick, our 3rd, AA and Tartt for Luck, they get 2 young defensive starters and their future QB..

3 firsts? Yes. A thousand times yes.

3 firsts? really? Luck is good but not that good and he is injured alot. Giving up that much for someone has missed so much time is too much of a risk. I would say a 1st and 2nd

3 firsts is what he (would) have garnered pre-draft...just look at what the skins gave up that year to move into the #2 spot behind indy to get rg3

yeah that was like 5 years ago. Since then he has shown to be very injury plagued. That definitely lowers a player's value

Originally posted by btthepunk:
But will it take offering Cousins a bigger contract than Luck is currently on?

Probably but I'd take 2 1sts over a couple of mil a year in cap space. I wouldn't be against Luck but KC just makes too much sense to throw away picks.

Originally posted by baltien:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by baltien:

Originally posted by toppdogg32:
A 2018 1st., and a 2019 2nd.. , and dats it. We can save $$$$ from a bidding war/pissing contest for Cousins, and have a young moldable talent. Fixes our situation NOW, this year can go from rebuild to transition within it.

This is in line with my thinking. A first in 2018, a second in 2019, and MAYBE throw in an additional (2019) third or fourth rounder to seal the deal.

I like Luck, and I think he'd kill it in Shanny's system, but no way would I give up multiple firsts for him.

FWIW though, it doesn't matter who signs Cousins. He's going to be paid at the top of his position come the off-season.

That's just the market.

You guys are out of your minds if you think a 1st and a 2nd are all it would take for Andrew Luck.

Sam Bradford was traded for a 1st rounder and a future 4th rounder.

Alex Smith was traded for a 2nd rounder and a future 2nd rounder.

Yet, somehow, Andrew Luck is only worth a 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder? Yeah sorry, but you guys are not operating in reality. Andrew Luck is twice the QB that either of those two are, yet he is only worth marginally more than them?

OK, lol.

There's actually a pretty big difference between "a 1st rounder" and a top 3 pick. There's a HUGE difference between "a 2nd rounder" and a top 3 pick.

Understood, and my point still stands. Andrew Luck is a far more valuable quarterback than Alex Smith or Sam Bradford were when they were traded. So what it would take for Luck should be exponentially more than the other two.

I get your point, but I disagree. Trade value isn't something that never changes. If Bradford or Alex Smith were traded today, do you think they would fetch the same price?

Luck is good, but he's coming off a major injury.

Three firsts (as some have suggested) is way too much for him.

I think they would be worth far less if traded today. But that's just because they are older.

Would I love to have Andrew Luck running Shanahan's offense...you bet. The cost would very likely be prohibitive. This roster isn't what Shanahan envisioned when he took the HC job...that said, Lynch has done a terrific job turning the roster over. It's a great start, but that's all it really is. Coach still needs some marquis receivers, better QB play, stronger OL, pass rushers, secondary, etc. I think he/Lynch are still pretty interested in Cousins...he's had great production w/'Skins and so far hasn't been injury prone. That's a major concern with Luck, it just is. As has been pointed out, Cousins will cost some significant salary, but no draft picks, other than compensatory the 'Skins would get should he sign elsewhere. The top draft picks the Colts would want could arguably be used by Lynch to get some top shelf OL, WR's, whatever the most pressing needs are. Much as I'd love to see Andrew in crimson & gold, I really don't see it happening.