Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Originally posted by okdkid:
I would not read into ANY line.

Vegas sets lines to maximize the amount of money being wagered. They are not in the business of predicting winners. The line ONLY exists to entice more bettors to bet.

If Vegas thought they could bring in more money by setting the line to -99...they would do that.

Exactly right. People often think that the line is how many points Vegas thinks a team will win by. They really don't care who wins since they usually win no matter what. They only lose when way too much is wagered one way and they end up on the wrong side. That's why you see the line move if too much money is bet on one team. They lower the odds to get money to go the other way. What can really hurt them is if a lot of money comes in late and they have no time to adjust. That always creates suspicion.

Originally posted by pdizo916:
The niners are favored more than a touchdown. You know what this mean? The game will be a nail bitter.:(

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by pdizo916:
The niners are favored more than a touchdown. You know what this mean? The game will be a nail bitter.:(

I would not read into ANY line.

Vegas sets lines to maximize the amount of money being wagered. They are not in the business of predicting winners. The line ONLY exists to entice more bettors to bet.

If Vegas thought they could bring in more money by setting the line to -99...they would do that.

niners being favored by more than a touchdown just gives the Vikings more motivation and a chip on their shoulder if anything

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by pdizo916:
The niners are favored more than a touchdown. You know what this mean? The game will be a nail bitter.:(

I would not read into ANY line.

Vegas sets lines to maximize the amount of money being wagered. They are not in the business of predicting winners. The line ONLY exists to entice more bettors to bet.

If Vegas thought they could bring in more money by setting the line to -99...they would do that.

Yes but I'm still surprised that the line opened at 7 or so and seems to be 6.5 That means that the Vikes are getting quite a bit of love, moreso than I thought since the line is lower than what we saw against the Saints and seems to have moved in their direction, meaning they're getting some of the early money. However, Saints and Brees are a public team and everyone thought of this as their revenge game for the Minny Miracle, probably led to the inflated line.

Vegas is sometimes so on it makes me sick but every playoffs there are one or two blowouts. Those did not happen this week, I will probably be playing the Niners -6.5 and probably have them in a few teasers or ML parlays.

Big Game James! Gonna play lights out!
He plays best when the lights are the brightest!

Originally posted by SkyZer0:

niners being favored by more than a touchdown just gives the Vikings more motivation and a chip on their shoulder if anything

Lol, what more motivation do you need than a super bowl?

To me, the Saints looked past the Vikings. They didn't really show up till mid way through the 3rd. If the saints got the ball to start OT, they would have probably marched down and scored. Brees also have a crappy game and had 2 bad turnovers. We play a clean game and we win big.

Originally posted by GoldenJoe:

Yes but I'm still surprised that the line opened at 7 or so and seems to be 6.5 That means that the Vikes are getting quite a bit of love, moreso than I thought since the line is lower than what we saw against the Saints and seems to have moved in their direction, meaning they're getting some of the early money. However, Saints and Brees are a public team and everyone thought of this as their revenge game for the Minny Miracle, probably led to the inflated line.

Vegas is sometimes so on it makes me sick but every playoffs there are one or two blowouts. Those did not happen this week, I will probably be playing the Niners -6.5 and probably have them in a few teasers or ML parlays.

The majority of the media had the Saints as the best team in the NFC. The country writ large is still skeptical of the Niners and that's reflected in the line. The recent movement of the line suggests recency bias. I have a bunch of friends who support other teams and none of them think the Niners are very good and some think the Vikings will win.

I just think there's too much of the 'other' factors playing into our favor: short week, team played into OT, second straight road game, and we're rested and getting starters back. And the likelihood that MIN can win back to back on the road as a -7+ underdog is really unlikely.

I feel like Jimmy won't have to do much this game. We're going to run the ball.

Originally posted by Cisco0623:

I feel like Jimmy won't have to do much this game. We're going to run the ball.

I think so too. If Tartt, Ford, and Kwon are back, we're going to be running the early season game plan. Run, control the clock, pick up 3rd downs, rush the passer.

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by GoldenJoe:
Yes but I'm still surprised that the line opened at 7 or so and seems to be 6.5 That means that the Vikes are getting quite a bit of love, moreso than I thought since the line is lower than what we saw against the Saints and seems to have moved in their direction, meaning they're getting some of the early money. However, Saints and Brees are a public team and everyone thought of this as their revenge game for the Minny Miracle, probably led to the inflated line.

Vegas is sometimes so on it makes me sick but every playoffs there are one or two blowouts. Those did not happen this week, I will probably be playing the Niners -6.5 and probably have them in a few teasers or ML parlays.

The majority of the media had the Saints as the best team in the NFC. The country writ large is still skeptical of the Niners and that's reflected in the line. The recent movement of the line suggests recency bias. I have a bunch of friends who support other teams and none of them think the Niners are very good and some think the Vikings will win.

I just think there's too much of the 'other' factors playing into our favor: short week, team played into OT, second straight road game, and we're rested and getting starters back. And the likelihood that MIN can win on the road as a -7+ underdog is really unlikely.

I agree. Saints are the public team, far more public than we are. They had the second best odds to come out of the NFC at the start of the playoffs (IIRC) behind us, lots of hype leading into the playoffs, revenge factor for the past two seasons and basically they were viewing the Vikes game as a gimme on their way to two road games. I love us at -6.5 but I'm obviously biased.

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by Cisco0623:

I feel like Jimmy won't have to do much this game. We're going to run the ball.

I think so too. If Tartt, Ford, and Kwon are back, we're going to be running the early season game plan. Run, control the clock, pick up 3rd downs, rush the passer.

Yup. In a way a blessing. We have our championship caliber defense back, and jimmy got a ton of experience and imo showed he can do it. So we are a more complete team because of it.

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by Cisco0623:

I feel like Jimmy won't have to do much this game. We're going to run the ball.

I think so too. If Tartt, Ford, and Kwon are back, we're going to be running the early season game plan. Run, control the clock, pick up 3rd downs, rush the passer.

I think it's the playoffs and he needs to come through big time. Minnesota isn't a team to take lightly. They some really good talent.

It's the playoffs - never under estimate your opponent. I'm sure saints fans where already booking their travel to green bay before the Minnesota game.

Originally posted by tankle104:
I think it's the playoffs and he needs to come through big time. Minnesota isn't a team to take lightly. They some really good talent.

It's the playoffs - never under estimate your opponent. I'm sure saints fans where already booking their travel to green bay before the Minnesota game.

Even though it was over 30 years ago, I remember the horrible feeling walking out of the Stick after the Vikings with Anthony Carter and Wade Wilson at QB upset the Niners. Listening to all those Vikings fans celebrating on the way to the car was torture. Wade Wilson folks beat the Niners at home in the playoffs. The 13 win Niners with Montana, Rice, Craig, Rathman and a great O line. We had Michael Carter and Board on the line. The DB's were Lott, Jeff Fuller, Mckyer and Griffin. That was a great team and we lost to an 8 win Vikings team that had no business being on the same field with these guys.

Final score: Vikings win 36-24.

Never underestimate a team in the playoffs.

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by Cisco0623:

I feel like Jimmy won't have to do much this game. We're going to run the ball.

I think so too. If Tartt, Ford, and Kwon are back, we're going to be running the early season game plan. Run, control the clock, pick up 3rd downs, rush the passer.

I think it's the playoffs and he needs to come through big time. Minnesota isn't a team to take lightly. They some really good talent.

It's the playoffs - never under estimate your opponent. I'm sure saints fans where already booking their travel to green bay before the Minnesota game.

I dont think this is them underestimating the Vikes at all. They are just saying game plan wise, looking at the match ups, its going to be a run heavy formula.

Originally posted by tankle104:

I think it's the playoffs and he needs to come through big time. Minnesota isn't a team to take lightly. They some really good talent.

It's the playoffs - never under estimate your opponent. I'm sure saints fans where already booking their travel to green bay before the Minnesota game.

Yep. Fairly sure Patriots we're doing the equivalent. One game at a time.