Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Originally posted by SkyZer0:
lol i know right? what was Jimmy in 3rd down conversions? what was Jimmy in 4th quarter comebacks vs the rest of the league? s**t that matters.

Would we be in those 4th QR comebacks if Jimmy didn't have such a high INT%

I don't think he sucks at all...I think he's an avg QB that plays well with a good roster around him. I think SF can do better that's all.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SkyZer0:
who f**king cares about all of those? was like top 5 in 3rd down conversions. which outweigh any of those stats besides INT's. we never had that with Alex. moving the chains consistently was something we had with Jimmy we hadn't had with any other QB in a long ass time.

If you actually understand the data it backs up a lot of what some of us have been saying.

Yes top 5 in 3rd down conversions, these stats directly tie into 3rd downs....

ALEX: Air Less EXpected. ALEX measures the average difference between how far a quarterback threw a pass (air yards) and how many yards he needed for a first down. If a quarterback throws a pass 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage on third-and-15, that would be minus-20 ALEX. The best application of ALEX is to look at third and fourth down when it's really crucial to get 100 percent of the need yards to extend the drive. A high ALEX would be indicative of a quarterback who aggressively attacks the sticks, while a low ALEX is indicative of a conservative quarterback more likely to check down and/or rely on YAC. Yes, the name is inspired by Alex Smith, who frequently has one of the lowest ALEX averages in the league.

He was 6th worst in the league in ALEX according to Football Outsiders, right next to Haskins.

Air Yards to the Sticks (AYTS)Air Yards to the Sticks shows the amount of Air Yards ahead or behind the first down marker on all attempts for a passer. The metric indicates if the passer is attempting his passes past the 1st down marker, or if he is relying on his skill position players to make yards after catch.

2nd worst in the league last yr in AYTS...So he basically relied on his skilled playmakers to get 3rd down conversions. Why does he get all the credit for that? It's why air yards is an important stat. It's not just about throwing deep balls all game. It's about actually throwing the ball forward consistently lol. It's the difference between a game manger type and guys who play are the next level.

context dude.

lol okay LightsOut85

https://www.footballperspective.com/jimmy-garoppolo-and-third-down-performance/

can think of a ton of crucial times he moved the chains by hitting his guy right at the sticks or past it.

but doesn't matter, we converted more 3rd downs with him at QB as an offense better than we had in over a decade time and time again.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by genus49:
lol not being stubborn you brought up the whole rookie contract thing like it was the secret sauce to SB wins.

I just pointed out that's not the case or you'd see a lot more young QBs winning SBs.

Out of the last 10 years only 3 guys fit the bill of what you describe and two of them are arguably the two best QBs playing the game right now. So was it their small contract that was the formula or was it their ability? Mahomes it was certainly his ability. Wilson is a toss up. The SB they won his defense outscored Denver but if I recall correctly it was also before their key guys got paid big time.

I understand your point. If we can find a young QB who is better than Jimmy it would be terrific. We know we have some heavy hitters who will need to get paid and we have guys we have to retain or wait out some of these bad contracts while trying to stay afloat. A good QB on a rookie deal would certainly do that.

But my point the whole time has been be careful what you wish for. No guarantee the young guy ends up being better than Jimmy. I understand you want to get rid of Jimmy's contract because you think he's not playing up to it but going to an unknown doesn't always guarantee the success KC or Seattle saw.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens and hope whatever move the 49ers make will not haunt us.

It's not a secret and it's been talked about in here well before this yr...we laughed at LA when they gave Goff a mountain of cash and now have to work with less talent after this yr...we laughed at Seattle giving Wilson a truck load of cash knowing they would have lesser talent around him....only difference with Wilson is he actually elevates that team around him. So much so that they're guaranteed 10 wins a yr, basically because of him...if you're gonna pay a QB top money then that's what you want. You should feel confident knowing your QB can make a worse roster a lot better, if not then why pay him?

s**t look at Wentz now.

IMO it's all about winning games and getting to the playoffs...after that you're playing with house money. The best teams don't always make it to the SB let alone win it. You know this. Ball bounces one way, bad call by the ref, muffed punt and you're standing there with you pants around your ankles...even if you have the better QB/team.

I'd much rather go the route of a young QB and be able to reset the cap for the next 5 or so yrs...give me a great roster to allow him to develop. We already have the coaching staff. Staying the course with Jimmy and no cap space and hop to have a top end roster is a move for me....if you think JG can make everyone better around him like Wilson then so be it, I'll disagree with that.

We will see!

I didn't laugh at Wilson's contract. I was hoping he'd go to NY lol.

And sure QBs get paid huge bucks and we know when those contracts come up it gets a lot tougher to field well rounded teams unless your drafting is terrific.

It will only get tougher as you're winning more games and picking lower.

However end of the day you want to have that problem. Cuz every 4-5 years drafting rookie QBs is obviously not sustainable. You're trying to get a guy who will be on your team for 15+ years and you hope to have the problem of having the QB who gets the most at his position when he comes up for a new deal.

Like I said, I get your point about our particular situation and I agree with it. It's the smart move but it's also a dangerous move. That's all I'm saying.

Most of the teams that made the switch to these QBs with success didn't have a proven winner who took them far even at a high salaried contract.

Alex Smith with KC is probably the closest comparison but Alex was pretty much a closed book and on the wrong side of 30.
Herbert - old man Rivers on the way out
Watson - crap
Murray - not even the best example since they owned #1 overall but they got a quick look at Rosen and said nope after taking him #10 overall(another horror story)
Wilson - just signed Matt Flynn...

Now I may be forgetting someone but the two examples sort of in our area is KC and Seattle. Wilson of course was a 3rd round pick so that worked out brilliantly for them.

Is there another team who had a guy that was a proven winner for them and they punted him for a young unproven QB?

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SkyZer0:
lol i know right? what was Jimmy in 3rd down conversions? what was Jimmy in 4th quarter comebacks vs the rest of the league? s**t that matters.

Would we be in those 4th QR comebacks if Jimmy didn't have such a high INT%

I don't think he sucks at all...I think he's an avg QB that plays well with a good roster around him. I think SF can do better that's all.

you literally nit-pick 1 game where the offense as a WHOLE had 5 turnovers for the day last year vs Pitt. but this was something we had with Jimmy in 2017, and carried over to 2019. he was consistently clutch for a good stretch for a while.

I don't think he sucks at all...I think he's an avg QB that plays well with a good roster around him. I think SF can do better that's all.

i know. you've said this 100,000,000 times.

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

What about 2019? JG had a good year.
5th in TDs, 8th in passer rating, 3rd in yards per attempt...

He made some plays here and there but he was still considered slightly above average that season. He didn't strike fear In to any defense we came across Is what I'm saying.

Originally posted by SkyZer0:

it's not like Jimmy was some "unconventional" QB like Kap that got 'figured' out. a lot of his issues are on himself. accuracy inconsistency, staring guys down, missing underneath linebackers.

could not disagree more. lol

You don't need to be "Unconventional" lol to get figured out. It's called tendencies. The D knows what's coming before our receivers do It would seem lol. Jimmy threw plenty of Ints in 2019 and could have threw plenty more if Defensive players didn't drop them.

Remember the overtime Loss to the Seahawks? Jimmy actually threw back to back what should have been Ints If the Seahawks players didn't drop them both. He's basically a turnover machine at this point.

I know some of you want Jimmy to come back this year. There's no doubt he's the best we have but the difference in scoring when Jimmy started vs Nick this year was about 2 points per game. Comparing Nick to last year when JG played a full season and the team was much healthier the difference is about 6 points per game. I don't see enough difference to try and bring JG back this year. I would rather see more of CJ and Nick. Let them each play half the game for the rest of the year so they can decide which one they want to keep next year.

They already know what JG can do and the chances of this team making the playoffs and advancing is really slim whether he starts or not. They may end up keeping him for another year so make sure he's healthy. Those ankle sprains can linger for a long time and there's also the chance he could injure something else if he goes back in and favors that ankle.

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
I don't mean to speak for NY but I don't think he is content with having the best 49er QB we have had in 15 years. He wants a legit franchise QB and who can keep this franchise in contention for the next 10 years. People can throw out stats that say Jimmy is good and people can throw out stats that say he isn't good. For me as a fan it comes down to how does he look and as a QB he looks average and it limits what an offense can do.

Bingo!

Anyone can cherry pick some stats either way...Someone can say Jimmy had one of the best deep ball comp % last yr, yet his deep ball attempts were one of the lowest in the league. Same stat with the 3rd down conversions. context there.

I'm with ya, SF can win games with him and a elite roster around him. I do think he limits the offense overall. His skill set overall is avg. I don't hate Jimmy and will root for him as long as he's wearing a Niner uni. I hope he balls out whenever he comes back and we never have to worry about a QB. I also don't think that's reality.

I'll keep using the metaphor of working somewhere with no women, a women get's hired and all of a sudden she's a lot hotter then she would be outside of work lol...We've been stuck with trash QB play forever, even avg looks sexy to this fan base right now

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SkyZer0:
who f**king cares about all of those? was like top 5 in 3rd down conversions. which outweigh any of those stats besides INT's. we never had that with Alex. moving the chains consistently was something we had with Jimmy we hadn't had with any other QB in a long ass time.

If you actually understand the data it backs up a lot of what some of us have been saying.

Yes top 5 in 3rd down conversions, these stats directly tie into 3rd downs....

ALEX: Air Less EXpected. ALEX measures the average difference between how far a quarterback threw a pass (air yards) and how many yards he needed for a first down. If a quarterback throws a pass 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage on third-and-15, that would be minus-20 ALEX. The best application of ALEX is to look at third and fourth down when it's really crucial to get 100 percent of the need yards to extend the drive. A high ALEX would be indicative of a quarterback who aggressively attacks the sticks, while a low ALEX is indicative of a conservative quarterback more likely to check down and/or rely on YAC. Yes, the name is inspired by Alex Smith, who frequently has one of the lowest ALEX averages in the league.

He was 6th worst in the league in ALEX according to Football Outsiders, right next to Haskins.

Air Yards to the Sticks (AYTS)Air Yards to the Sticks shows the amount of Air Yards ahead or behind the first down marker on all attempts for a passer. The metric indicates if the passer is attempting his passes past the 1st down marker, or if he is relying on his skill position players to make yards after catch.

2nd worst in the league last yr in AYTS...So he basically relied on his skilled playmakers to get 3rd down conversions. Why does he get all the credit for that? It's why air yards is an important stat. It's not just about throwing deep balls all game. It's about actually throwing the ball forward consistently lol. It's the difference between a game manger type and guys who play are the next level.

context dude.

you say context.. but those stats still don't explain how he converted so many 3rd downs or win so many games. was just dumb luck.. was it just horrible tackling for 19 games in a row or was he finding the open guy to get the first down. what about first and 2nd down throws.. are those all behind the LOS also.

if Jimmy wore a head band saying I throw deep all game.. i'm sure you would all over him

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I know some of you want Jimmy to come back this year. There's no doubt he's the best we have but the difference in scoring when Jimmy started vs Nick this year was about 2 points per game. Comparing Nick to last year when JG played a full season and the team was much healthier the difference is about 6 points per game. I don't see enough difference to try and bring JG back this year. I would rather see more of CJ and Nick. Let them each play half the game for the rest of the year so they can decide which one they want to keep next year.

They already know what JG can do and the chances of this team making the playoffs and advancing is really slim whether he starts or not. They may end up keeping him for another year so make sure he's healthy. Those ankle sprains can linger for a long time and there's also the chance he could injure something else if he goes back in and favors that ankle.

No. If Jimmy is healthy he plays. He's clearly a better player than those two and he's a leader on this team. It's not that slim..we win 4 of the remaining 5 games and we have a good chance of getting in. If we're still in contention and he's healthy again, he plays. We know what we have with CJ and Nick; career backups.

We can beat the Bills, Redskins and Cowboys without Jimmy. Would like to see him back against the Cardinals and Seahawks getting us to 9 or 10 wins.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I know some of you want Jimmy to come back this year. There's no doubt he's the best we have but the difference in scoring when Jimmy started vs Nick this year was about 2 points per game. Comparing Nick to last year when JG played a full season and the team was much healthier the difference is about 6 points per game. I don't see enough difference to try and bring JG back this year. I would rather see more of CJ and Nick. Let them each play half the game for the rest of the year so they can decide which one they want to keep next year.

They already know what JG can do and the chances of this team making the playoffs and advancing is really slim whether he starts or not. They may end up keeping him for another year so make sure he's healthy. Those ankle sprains can linger for a long time and there's also the chance he could injure something else if he goes back in and favors that ankle.

There is always the passive aggressive BUT in all of your posts. What follows is always the negative take in your speculations. Why don't you go back and support the Patriots. I know you came to this page soon after JG did. Is it because you were pissed the Pats lost him and wanted to come here to vent your frustrations and run everything Jimmy G into the ground? I bet it is.

Originally posted by SkyZer0:
you literally nit-pick 1 game where the offense as a WHOLE had 5 turnovers for the day last year vs Pitt. but this was something we had with Jimmy in 2017, and carried over to 2019. he was consistently clutch for a good stretch for a while.

I don't think he sucks at all...I think he's an avg QB that plays well with a good roster around him. I think SF can do better that's all.

i know. you've said this 100,000,000 times.

What about that the LA game? How many TOs did he have 2 or 3?

I want to make sure you know I don't hate him lol

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SkyZer0:

you literally nit-pick 1 game where the offense as a WHOLE had 5 turnovers for the day last year vs Pitt. but this was something we had with Jimmy in 2017, and carried over to 2019. he was consistently clutch for a good stretch for a while.

I don't think he sucks at all...I think he's an avg QB that plays well with a good roster around him. I think SF can do better that's all.

i know. you've said this 100,000,000 times.

What about that the LA game? How many TOs did he have 2 or 3?

I want to make sure you know I don't hate him lol

Lol

Originally posted by Sickaa:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

What about 2019? JG had a good year.
5th in TDs, 8th in passer rating, 3rd in yards per attempt...

He made some plays here and there but he was still considered slightly above average that season. He didn't strike fear In to any defense we came across Is what I'm saying.

Originally posted by SkyZer0:

it's not like Jimmy was some "unconventional" QB like Kap that got 'figured' out. a lot of his issues are on himself. accuracy inconsistency, staring guys down, missing underneath linebackers.

could not disagree more. lol

You don't need to be "Unconventional" lol to get figured out. It's called tendencies. The D knows what's coming before our receivers do It would seem lol. Jimmy threw plenty of Ints in 2019 and could have threw plenty more if Defensive players didn't drop them.

Remember the overtime Loss to the Seahawks? Jimmy actually threw back to back what should have been Ints If the Seahawks players didn't drop them both. He's basically a turnover machine at this point.

yeah and none of that necessarily equates to him being "figured out". you also remember during that game or receivers drop like 5+ balls? or the ball that came off Bournes hands tipped and picked off? again, it doesn't come off as being figured out to me as much as it does Jimmy just not upping his play and going through the motions and improving with experience, lol

If the niners beat Buffalo and Washington, and if Jimmy gets healthy, he starts against Dallas. He gives a better chance to beat Arizona and Seattle than Nick Mullens.

Originally posted by SkyZer0:
lol okay LightsOut85

https://www.footballperspective.com/jimmy-garoppolo-and-third-down-performance/

can think of a ton of crucial times he moved the chains by hitting his guy right at the sticks or past it.

but doesn't matter, we converted more 3rd downs with him at QB as an offense better than we had in over a decade time and time again.

I have no clue who you're talking about with the lightout85 thing. Don't be weird.

I'm glad you can think of some times when he moved the chains, I can as well. OVERALL compared to the rest of the league he was bottom of the barrel in AYTS and ALEX score.

Saying he was top 5 in 3rd down conversions is disingenuous, unless you also say that our playmakers played a MASSIVE part in that happening. Which film and a f**k ton of analytical data backs up.