Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
Well when Nick Bosa plays we go to the Super Bowl. Prove me wrong

That's what I mean. He plays one season and they go to the SB. That makes his win % really high since it's a small sample size. He was a big part last year but several other players all had great years. JG has a nice winning % but he didn't do it alone. I doubt that they would have made it all the way without Bosa but maybe they wouldn't without Kittle or Warner. Or several other guys. Ultimate team sport. Even Bosa saw his production drop off when Ford started missing games later in the year. Winning percentage just isn't a very meaningful stat. Maybe after a long career when you've played with several different players or teams it means a little more.

lol those guys don't handle the ball 100% of the time on offense

I agree it's a team stat.. but you can't just have anyone back there at QB

Agreed! That's why people want to upgrade from good enough to great.

We all do .. but upgrades in football end up being more downgrades than anything else.

This offseason (if the cap sinks) the 49ers will likely have to hit the lottery with what they choose to do at QB.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SkyZer0:
jimmy was awful in ALEX yards and his receivers did all that work after catching the ball. so doesnt count.

AYTS and ALEX score directly indicates what happens on 3rd downs and whom was really the reason for 3rd down conversions.

When you're near the bottom of the league in passing to the 1st downs sticks and are near the top in 3rd down conversions who's getting those 1st downs? It's clearly the playmakers and their YAC ability. It's not like it was some secret either. We watch the games and guys like Deebo/Kittle were tops in the league at getting those hard yards.

All I'm saying is we should acknowledge that...great Jimmy got the ball into their hands quickly. That was his job last yr.

I noticed you completely glossed over my post to you about the whole ALEX thing.

I'll keep it simple this time.

Josh Allen's ALEX score last year was like 3.4
Josh Allen's ALEX score this year is 0.3

Which Josh Allen is the better QB?

Taking away credit for Jimmy's ability to play well on 3rd down last year bringing up ALEX is lame. Jimmy isn't doing anything other QBs aren't allowed to do.

Not to mention which scenario are you picking?

It's 3rd and 7
1. QB throws 5 yards, WR picks up the first down
2. QB throws it 30 yards, WR is overthrown, 4th down coming up.

Yet ALEX in essence rewards scenario #2

Originally posted by random49er:

Winning % is a team stat that is a collective accomplishment... Kinda like UNIT pass protection, NC.

Just thought you of all people would recognize this?

Well, we were 27th out of 32 teams in Adjusted Games Lost last year. Kyle had to make a trade for Emmanuel Sanders in week 10 just to get a semblance of an NFL WR group. The OL was in constant flux esp. compared to this year.

So how many QB's could have navigated around a constant roster in flux, lead that many comeback wins, be tops on 3rd downs and orchestrate a team missing critical pieces to within 7 minutes of a Superbowl win?

That's the question the FO needs to answer.

Originally posted by genus49:
I noticed you completely glossed over my post to you about the whole ALEX thing.

I'll keep it simple this time.

Josh Allen's ALEX score last year was like 3.4
Josh Allen's ALEX score this year is 0.3

Which Josh Allen is the better QB?

Taking away credit for Jimmy's ability to play well on 3rd down last year bringing up ALEX is lame. Jimmy isn't doing anything other QBs aren't allowed to do.

Not to mention which scenario are you picking?

It's 3rd and 7
1. QB throws 5 yards, WR picks up the first down
2. QB throws it 30 yards, WR is overthrown, 4th down coming up.

Yet ALEX in essence rewards scenario #2

Is that correct? The ALEX score does not care whether the pass was completed or not?

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SkyZer0:
jimmy was awful in ALEX yards and his receivers did all that work after catching the ball. so doesnt count.

AYTS and ALEX score directly indicates what happens on 3rd downs and whom was really the reason for 3rd down conversions.

When you're near the bottom of the league in passing to the 1st downs sticks and are near the top in 3rd down conversions who's getting those 1st downs? It's clearly the playmakers and their YAC ability. It's not like it was some secret either. We watch the games and guys like Deebo/Kittle were tops in the league at getting those hard yards.

All I'm saying is we should acknowledge that...great Jimmy got the ball into their hands quickly. That was his job last yr.

I noticed you completely glossed over my post to you about the whole ALEX thing.

I'll keep it simple this time.

Josh Allen's ALEX score last year was like 3.4
Josh Allen's ALEX score this year is 0.3

Which Josh Allen is the better QB?

Taking away credit for Jimmy's ability to play well on 3rd down last year bringing up ALEX is lame. Jimmy isn't doing anything other QBs aren't allowed to do.

Not to mention which scenario are you picking?

It's 3rd and 7
1. QB throws 5 yards, WR picks up the first down
2. QB throws it 30 yards, WR is overthrown, 4th down coming up.

Yet ALEX in essence rewards scenario #2

agree

Thats why obscure stats don't show what is actually happening on the field and

is JG not supposed to throw to the wide open guy ?

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by genus49:
I noticed you completely glossed over my post to you about the whole ALEX thing.

I'll keep it simple this time.

Josh Allen's ALEX score last year was like 3.4
Josh Allen's ALEX score this year is 0.3

Which Josh Allen is the better QB?

Taking away credit for Jimmy's ability to play well on 3rd down last year bringing up ALEX is lame. Jimmy isn't doing anything other QBs aren't allowed to do.

Not to mention which scenario are you picking?

It's 3rd and 7
1. QB throws 5 yards, WR picks up the first down
2. QB throws it 30 yards, WR is overthrown, 4th down coming up.

Yet ALEX in essence rewards scenario #2

Is that correct? The ALEX score does not care whether the pass was completed or not?

My understanding it is it's distance of the throw on 3rd down relative to distance needed to convert the down. Not specific to completions only. They don't count batted down passes or throw aways.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by genus49:
I noticed you completely glossed over my post to you about the whole ALEX thing.

I'll keep it simple this time.

Josh Allen's ALEX score last year was like 3.4
Josh Allen's ALEX score this year is 0.3

Which Josh Allen is the better QB?

Taking away credit for Jimmy's ability to play well on 3rd down last year bringing up ALEX is lame. Jimmy isn't doing anything other QBs aren't allowed to do.

Not to mention which scenario are you picking?

It's 3rd and 7
1. QB throws 5 yards, WR picks up the first down
2. QB throws it 30 yards, WR is overthrown, 4th down coming up.

Yet ALEX in essence rewards scenario #2

Is that correct? The ALEX score does not care whether the pass was completed or not?

My understanding it is it's distance of the throw on 3rd down relative to distance needed to convert the down. Not specific to completions only. They don't count batted down passes or throw aways.

In that case I think the ALEX score has to be coupled with the overall 3rd down conversion rate. Meaning if the QB has a low ALEX score and does not convert 3rd downs at a reasonable rate, that's a problem. If the QB has good success on 3rd downs, while having a low ALEX score, then it's easier to overlook the low ALEX score.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Well, we were 27th out of 32 teams in Adjusted Games Lost last year. Kyle had to make a trade for Emmanuel Sanders in week 10 just to get a semblance of an NFL WR group. The OL was in constant flux esp. compared to this year.

So how many QB's could have navigated around a constant roster in flux, lead that many comeback wins, be tops on 3rd downs and orchestrate a team missing critical pieces to within 7 minutes of a Superbowl win?

That's the question the FO needs to answer.

That 2019 squad is long, long gone.

I just think they need to answer how many QBs are available that can play much better in 2021 than our current crop, given a # of games to blossom.

Our current crop have had 4 yrs to do so, but all 3 appear to be severely limited in upside.

I have been a proponent of Jimmy as our QB throughout the off season and through the early part of the season. I just think evaluating him on this season is impossible because of the injuries. Injuries must be taken into account, and it's disconcerting that Jimmy can't stay healthy. But Jimmy is far from a finished product. I think a lot of the criticisms raised are well taken. This season has been crazy though. The complete offense has never played together. It should be undisputed at this point that if Jimmy can come back and play this season, assuming he is at or hear 100%, he must replace Mullens. Jimmy with the players that are available right now is a super bowl contender in what I think is a wide open NFC, even without Kittle.

As far as next year, there are limited scenarios in which Jimmy is not on our team at least one more year. Shanny isn't starting a rookie QB with the roster we have. There will also be limited veteran QBs available that we could replace Jimmy with, whether through free agency or trade. There are just not a lot of options for QBs who can arguably execute the offense better than Jimmy, for a reasonable price, who we have a reasonable shot at acquiring. We are all aware that roster changes are coming. But this team will still have all of the weapons on offense (and hopefully T. Williams), and most if not all of the core on defense (Bosa, Armstead, Kinlaw, Givens, Warner, Greenlaw, Moore, Ward, Mosely), and the opportunity to bring back guys like Sherman, Verret, Hyder, ect. Plus, free agency is going to be bizarre this year. Few teams will have cap space to pay free agents. I suspect player may be willing to take one year deals with a contender to get to another contract the following year, or will be forced to take a discount on longer term contracts.

It will make sense to keep Jimmy next year while developing a QB behind him. That gives us the best chance for next year and beyond.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SkyZer0:

jimmy was awful in ALEX yards and his receivers did all that work after catching the ball. so doesnt count.

AYTS and ALEX score directly indicates what happens on 3rd downs and whom was really the reason for 3rd down conversions.

When you're near the bottom of the league in passing to the 1st downs sticks and are near the top in 3rd down conversions who's getting those 1st downs? It's clearly the playmakers and their YAC ability. It's not like it was some secret either. We watch the games and guys like Deebo/Kittle were tops in the league at getting those hard yards.

All I'm saying is we should acknowledge that...great Jimmy got the ball into their hands quickly. That was his job last yr.

I noticed you completely glossed over my post to you about the whole ALEX thing.

I'll keep it simple this time.

Josh Allen's ALEX score last year was like 3.4
Josh Allen's ALEX score this year is 0.3

Which Josh Allen is the better QB?

Taking away credit for Jimmy's ability to play well on 3rd down last year bringing up ALEX is lame. Jimmy isn't doing anything other QBs aren't allowed to do.

Not to mention which scenario are you picking?

It's 3rd and 7
1. QB throws 5 yards, WR picks up the first down
2. QB throws it 30 yards, WR is overthrown, 4th down coming up.

Yet ALEX in essence rewards scenario #2

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by genus49:

I noticed you completely glossed over my post to you about the whole ALEX thing.

I'll keep it simple this time.

Josh Allen's ALEX score last year was like 3.4
Josh Allen's ALEX score this year is 0.3

Which Josh Allen is the better QB?

Taking away credit for Jimmy's ability to play well on 3rd down last year bringing up ALEX is lame. Jimmy isn't doing anything other QBs aren't allowed to do.

Not to mention which scenario are you picking?

It's 3rd and 7
1. QB throws 5 yards, WR picks up the first down
2. QB throws it 30 yards, WR is overthrown, 4th down coming up.

Yet ALEX in essence rewards scenario #2

Is that correct? The ALEX score does not care whether the pass was completed or not?

My understanding it is it's distance of the throw on 3rd down relative to distance needed to convert the down. Not specific to completions only. They don't count batted down passes or throw aways.

In that case I think the ALEX score has to be coupled with the overall 3rd down conversion rate. Meaning if the QB has a low ALEX score and does not convert 3rd downs at a reasonable rate, that's a problem. If the QB has good success on 3rd downs, while having a low ALEX score, then it's easier to overlook the low ALEX score.

which is exactly the case with Jimmy and WHY the ALEX score isn't as big of a deal like NY is making it out to be because conversion rate remains high.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

agree

Thats why obscure stats don't show what is actually happening on the field and

is JG not supposed to throw to the wide open guy ?

Alex isn't really "rewarding" anything. It's simply offering perspective when perspective is needed, such as in an offense like ours where people will naturally want to revise history.

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
agree

Thats why obscure stats don't show what is actually happening on the field and

is JG not supposed to throw to the wide open guy ?

Alex isn't really "rewarding" anything. It's simply offering perspective when perspective is needed, such as in an offense like ours where people will naturally want to revise history.

Who's trying to revise our 2019 offense as a going deep offense ?

Klye and JG did better than avg at keeping the offense on the field and coming away with points. Can we get better, of course. I enjoyed last season.. not sure why some try to tarnish it

Originally posted by SD49er:
I have been a proponent of Jimmy as our QB throughout the off season and through the early part of the season. I just think evaluating him on this season is impossible because of the injuries. Injuries must be taken into account, and it's disconcerting that Jimmy can't stay healthy. But Jimmy is far from a finished product. I think a lot of the criticisms raised are well taken. This season has been crazy though. The complete offense has never played together. It should be undisputed at this point that if Jimmy can come back and play this season, assuming he is at or hear 100%, he must replace Mullens. Jimmy with the players that are available right now is a super bowl contender in what I think is a wide open NFC, even without Kittle.

As far as next year, there are limited scenarios in which Jimmy is not on our team at least one more year. Shanny isn't starting a rookie QB with the roster we have. There will also be limited veteran QBs available that we could replace Jimmy with, whether through free agency or trade. There are just not a lot of options for QBs who can arguably execute the offense better than Jimmy, for a reasonable price, who we have a reasonable shot at acquiring. We are all aware that roster changes are coming. But this team will still have all of the weapons on offense (and hopefully T. Williams), and most if not all of the core on defense (Bosa, Armstead, Kinlaw, Givens, Warner, Greenlaw, Moore, Ward, Mosely), and the opportunity to bring back guys like Sherman, Verret, Hyder, ect. Plus, free agency is going to be bizarre this year. Few teams will have cap space to pay free agents. I suspect player may be willing to take one year deals with a contender to get to another contract the following year, or will be forced to take a discount on longer term contracts.

It will make sense to keep Jimmy next year while developing a QB behind him. That gives us the best chance for next year and beyond.

Good, reasonable post.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
agree

Thats why obscure stats don't show what is actually happening on the field and

is JG not supposed to throw to the wide open guy ?

Alex isn't really "rewarding" anything. It's simply offering perspective when perspective is needed, such as in an offense like ours where people will naturally want to revise history.

Who's trying to revise our 2019 offense as a going deep offense ?

Klye and JG did better than avg at keeping the offense on the field and coming away with points. Can we get better, of course. I enjoyed last season.. not sure why some try to tarnish it

ALEX doesn't offer perspective considering like most stats when taken without context it's limited.

Lots of things go into that stat. What the defense is playing, what kind of players you have on your roster, the QB you have, the offense you run. How well your OL is playing vs the team you're playing.

Bringing it up is fine but using it to knock the guy who was the best at converting 3rd downs and simply dismissing it as - well his receivers did most of the work is kind of absurd. Does that logic apply when a QB throws up a 50/50 ball and his WR comes down with it where it likely should've been picked?

Or do we only try to discredit QBs when receivers get YAC?

I said it before...what do we think Joe Montana's ALEX score would've been? Especially before we added Jerry Rice to the fold?

Originally posted by SD49er:

I have been a proponent of Jimmy as our QB throughout the off season and through the early part of the season. I just think evaluating him on this season is impossible because of the injuries. Injuries must be taken into account, and it's disconcerting that Jimmy can't stay healthy. But Jimmy is far from a finished product.

I mean... It's easy to suggest on here to withhold evaluation due to injuries. But that's just not the way things really work.

Guys are being evaluated all the time while they were hurt,... often-times getting cut after it being determined staying healthy is a concern.

It works both ways tho... Our staff has bet on plenty of players with health concerns due to the low risk of the bargaining prices they bring here. Maybe they are on the bench or getting healthy,... Or maybe they have ascended? Not the hugest concern.

Keeping highly priced players as your 1A when there isint much behind them is a different animal, though.

So you have to evaluate everything the same way you will be evaluated as well at year's end. There are no pauses.