Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Originally posted by SkyZer0:

never said it was. but plays like that throw that measuring stick of the ALEX score in the trash lol.

the fact he was near the bottom in that "ALEX" category didnt make us any worse or hold us back, clearly. so really didnt matter.

How does it throw that stat in the trash? That's like showing me Jimmy making some amazing TD throw and totally disregarding every over/under throw and INT

NO the stat shows how much he actually should be getting credit for...it's disingenuous to say it was all Jimmy on those 3rd down conversions, when in reality the playmakers where the one making plays.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SkyZer0:
never said it was. but plays like that throw that measuring stick of the ALEX score in the trash lol.

the fact he was near the bottom in that "ALEX" category didnt make us any worse or hold us back, clearly. so really didnt matter.

How does it throw that stat in the trash? That's like showing me Jimmy making some amazing TD throw and totally disregarding every over/under throw and INT

NO the stat shows how much he actually should be getting credit for...it's disingenuous to say it was all Jimmy on those 3rd down conversions, when in reality the playmakers where the one making plays.

it's disingenuous to say that the playmakers were responsible and Jimmy wasn't. lol

in reality Jimmy was a big part of it and the ALEX indicator would be more telling if we weren't converting 3rd downs as often as we were.

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Well, we were 27th out of 32 teams in Adjusted Games Lost last year. Kyle had to make a trade for Emmanuel Sanders in week 10 just to get a semblance of an NFL WR group. The OL was in constant flux esp. compared to this year.

So how many QB's could have navigated around a constant roster in flux, lead that many comeback wins, be tops on 3rd downs and orchestrate a team missing critical pieces to within 7 minutes of a Superbowl win?

That's the question the FO needs to answer.

That 2019 squad is long, long gone.

I just think they need to answer how many QBs are available that can play much better in 2021 than our current crop, given a # of games to blossom.

Our current crop have had 4 yrs to do so, but all 3 appear to be severely limited in upside.

Well yeah. Now we have 42 players gone since pre season including Garoppolo twice because Tomlinson blows in pass protection. Mullens has been crushed too numerous times.

Let me ask YOU the same question. How many QB's could have taken the 2019 team to the Superbowl coming off a major injury in basically, their first full year and stayed healthy here and won in 2020?

Originally posted by genus49:

ALEX doesn't offer perspective considering like most stats when taken without context it's limited.

Lots of things go into that stat. What the defense is playing, what kind of players you have on your roster, the QB you have, the offense you run.

Lots of things go into other stats as well,... But you have brought them to the board plenty of times like many others.

1) The Eye Test: Jimmy is strong on short yardage plays and quick hitters over the middle. When he does throw 20 yards down the field, again, over the middle, he's OK.

Jimmy is seriously lacking down the field and especially outside the hashes in accuracy and
production. No,... It isn't because Shanahan doesn't like big plays.

He gets credit for good, deceive reads, but let's not over-reward a QB for a bunch of YAC yards.

2) The ALEX Score: Jimmy bottoming out in it during his best season ='s supporting #1 above with factual evidence.


Why are some of you trying to squirm out of this reality?? It's simply a stat that proves his success didnt include throwing very far. See that as you wish.

Originally posted by genus49:

I noticed you completely glossed over my post to you about the whole ALEX thing.

I'll keep it simple this time.

Josh Allen's ALEX score last year was like 3.4
Josh Allen's ALEX score this year is 0.3

Which Josh Allen is the better QB?

Taking away credit for Jimmy's ability to play well on 3rd down last year bringing up ALEX is lame. Jimmy isn't doing anything other QBs aren't allowed to do.

Not to mention which scenario are you picking?

It's 3rd and 7
1. QB throws 5 yards, WR picks up the first down
2. QB throws it 30 yards, WR is overthrown, 4th down coming up.

Yet ALEX in essence rewards scenario #2

I never saw your post. Never meant to gloss over anything.

I don't have a membership to FOs so I can't see the 2020 DOVA and ALEX scores for QBs anymore. You have it?

Please show me where they get rewarded for throwing an incompletion?

No where in the definition of this stat does it say this...

ALEX: Air Less EXpected. ALEX measures the average difference between how far a quarterback threw a pass (air yards) and how many yards he needed for a first down. If a quarterback throws a pass 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage on third-and-15, that would be minus-20 ALEX. The best application of ALEX is to look at third and fourth down when it's really crucial to get 100 percent of the need yards to extend the drive. A high ALEX would be indicative of a quarterback who aggressively attacks the sticks, while a low ALEX is indicative of a conservative quarterback more likely to check down and/or rely on YAC. Yes, the name is inspired by Alex Smith, who frequently has one of the lowest ALEX averages in the league.

Even if the stat is all attempts...what about this scenario

1. 3&7 Jimmy dumps it 3 yards ahead of the LOS and they don't get a 1st down. Kittle/Deebo can't break the 3 tackles that we're asking them to do all the damn time (increasing chance of injury in the process)

1. 3&7 Jimmy throws the ball 10 yards ahead of the LOS and they don't get a 1st down.

Again he relied on YAC, is it the worst thing no...it is however disingenuous to give him all the credit for converting all these 3rd downs without SAYING that he relied on our playmakers to get YAC. Let all stop pretending like they wasn't a thing last yr.

Do we need to pay a QB $137M to throw short of the sticks more than any QB in football?

Originally posted by sacniner:

Originally posted by Niner4ever:

Originally posted by jonnydel:
Y'all need to stop worrying about the cap. I know that sounds head-in-the-sand, but there's no way the NFL is going to let the cap situation be as dismal as it's looking next year. These are ultra-rich owners. I'm pretty sure they're going to be willing to up the cap under an exception this off-season. Otherwise, any team in contention this year is screwed next year, not just us. They haven't released anything about it because this is the first year in a long time that teams actually have a LOT of leverage with pending FA's. Mark my words, there will be a cap adjustment right before FA this year and every will know what it is by February 15th.

Anyone still not think the NFL isn't going to make cap adjustments?

Agree. I've been thinking this. They might not raise it but I don't think it will be as low as some think either.

Who knows. Jonny's post is wishful thinking as a super hardcore Garoppolo backer

What did my cap breakdown have to do with backing Jimmy?

Wishful thinking? There's going to be at least 380 free agents next year(I think each team has about 12 spots to get to 51 on average), collectively, if the salary cap remains as is for next season the league will have a total of about 217 million in cap space.....of all the teams put together.

The minimum salary for a player with over 1 year of experience and NOT more than 2 is 685k. 380x685k = 260 million. So, even if teams were to keep existing contracts, fill out rosters with players who don't have more than 2 full years of experience on minimum contracts the league doesn't have the cap space by 43 million. These are estimates as I'm not going through each team and counting free agents down to the number. I think there's going to be more than 380 though. That was a rough estimate after looking at about 16 teams.

To create space, teams have to create more roster spots to fill, carry dead money and you will have big name free agents coming available.

So, let's stop and actually think about this, not just accuse someone of "wishful thinking" because it doesn't agree with the argument that we need to move on from Jimmy for cap reasons because of what it looks like. The NFL and NFLPA will not let this happen. Currently, the CBA gives players 47% of revenue - owners are carrying lower costs and revenues this year and so they're going to have to suck it up, as well as players taking cuts across the board because of COVID. There's no other way around it. space will be created and teams know it.

The Bears had 680k in space for next year 10 days ago, they've signed extensions and now are negative 10 million. Why would they do that if they believe the cap will be LOWER than next year?

Originally posted by thl408:

In that case I think the ALEX score has to be coupled with the overall 3rd down conversion rate. Meaning if the QB has a low ALEX score and does not convert 3rd downs at a reasonable rate, that's a problem. If the QB has good success on 3rd downs, while having a low ALEX score, then it's easier to overlook the low ALEX score.

It might be the same thing with Avg yards to the sticks...which is all attempts (next gen stats)

"Air Yards to the Sticks shows the amount of Air Yards ahead or behind the first down marker on all attempts for a passer. The metric indicates if the passer is attempting his passes past the 1st down marker, or if he is relying on his skill position players to make yards after catch."

He was 31 out of 32 last yr (Bridgewater was only one worse).

Toss in he was 8th highest in INT% so he was throwing the ball at one of the shortest distances and still had one of the highest in INT% in the league.

Originally posted by SkyZer0:

it's disingenuous to say that the playmakers were responsible and Jimmy wasn't. lol

in reality Jimmy was a big part of it and the ALEX indicator would be more telling if we weren't converting 3rd downs as often as we were.

How so?

Oh I'll toss up a play like you do


ALEX shows his passing attempts are closer to the LOS the most NFL QBs same with AYTS. Are you telling me that's more difficult? How the s**t does he get more credit for those conversions then the guys getting all the YAC?

FWIW with all that he was the 8th highest QB in INT% in 2019. So throws the shortest amount of distance and still tosses a ton of INTs how's that good? Why should that cost SF $137M?

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SkyZer0:
it's disingenuous to say that the playmakers were responsible and Jimmy wasn't. lol

in reality Jimmy was a big part of it and the ALEX indicator would be more telling if we weren't converting 3rd downs as often as we were.

How so?

Oh I'll toss up a play like you do

The YAC Bros lived up their name on Sunday as the trio combined for 182 total yards after the catch in the #49ers' win against The Rams:

Deebo Samuel - 96 total YAC
George Kittle - 72 total YAC
Brandon Aiyuk - 14 total YAC pic.twitter.com/cuhho1A2zh

— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) October 21, 2020

ALEX shows his passing attempts are closer to the LOS the most NFL QBs same with AYTS. Are you telling me that's more difficult? How the s**t does he get more credit for those conversions then the guys getting all the YAC?

FWIW with all that he was the 8th highest QB in INT% in 2019. So throws the shortest amount of distance and still tosses a ton of INTs how's that good? Why should that cost SF $137M?

except we're only discussing how clutch he has been for us all of last season and before that. you can use that game from this year to facilitate your ALEX argument, but not over the context of a full season clearly when it comes to showing examples like that rams game.

what happens to the ALEX stat when he converts to 3rd and 16's like that?

also that Rams game isnt the reason he got that contract, silly. you know better.

Originally posted by jonnydel:

What did my cap breakdown have to do with backing Jimmy?

Wishful thinking? There's going to be at least 380 free agents next year(I think each team has about 12 spots to get to 51 on average), collectively, if the salary cap remains as is for next season the league will have a total of about 217 million in cap space.....of all the teams put together.

The minimum salary for a player with over 1 year of experience and NOT more than 2 is 685k. 380x685k = 260 million. So, even if teams were to keep existing contracts, fill out rosters with players who don't have more than 2 full years of experience on minimum contracts the league doesn't have the cap space by 43 million. These are estimates as I'm not going through each team and counting free agents down to the number. I think there's going to be more than 380 though. That was a rough estimate after looking at about 16 teams.

To create space, teams have to create more roster spots to fill, carry dead money and you will have big name free agents coming available.

So, let's stop and actually think about this, not just accuse someone of "wishful thinking" because it doesn't agree with the argument that we need to move on from Jimmy for cap reasons because of what it looks like. The NFL and NFLPA will not let this happen. Currently, the CBA gives players 47% of revenue - owners are carrying lower costs and revenues this year and so they're going to have to suck it up, as well as players taking cuts across the board because of COVID. There's no other way around it. space will be created and teams know it.

The Bears had 680k in space for next year 10 days ago, they've signed extensions and now are negative 10 million. Why would they do that if they believe the cap will be LOWER than next year?

They already had a collective bargaining agreement on what they will do with the cap in 2021. They tapped it at a min of $175 (would probably be lower) if the revenue generated this year is more than that, they will use that...with games being played in mostly empty stadiums and a massive revenue losses, why in the world would you assume the owners will "suck it up" lol. When have they ever done that?

If anyone is gonna have to "suck it up" it will be and always has been the players. Contracts will be shorter with less gtd cash and backloaded...That's what happens when you tie your piece of the pie into overall revenue of the business. It's capitalism man. When it's good it's real good, next yr is gonna be a lean yr. is what it is. Adapt and adjust

IMO 2021 is gonna be a hard yr for teams overall. I wouldn't be shocked if some guys sit out the yr if they don't get the cash they want.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by thl408:
In that case I think the ALEX score has to be coupled with the overall 3rd down conversion rate. Meaning if the QB has a low ALEX score and does not convert 3rd downs at a reasonable rate, that's a problem. If the QB has good success on 3rd downs, while having a low ALEX score, then it's easier to overlook the low ALEX score.

It might be the same thing with Avg yards to the sticks...which is all attempts (next gen stats)

"Air Yards to the Sticks shows the amount of Air Yards ahead or behind the first down marker on all attempts for a passer. The metric indicates if the passer is attempting his passes past the 1st down marker, or if he is relying on his skill position players to make yards after catch."

He was 31 out of 32 last yr (Bridgewater was only one worse).

Toss in he was 8th highest in INT% so he was throwing the ball at one of the shortest distances and still had one of the highest in INT% in the league.

I think we've talked about this you and I. The ALEX and AYTS stats really punishes Jimmy because of the frequency of shovels and screens that Kyle dials up. A true measure needs to eliminate shovels and screens. Including the dinky shovels and screens, the stat becomes a function of the offense. This is where you insert your argument about how Kyle doesn't trust Jimmy to throw the ball downfield.

Originally posted by 49inchesdeep:

Originally posted by Niner4ever:

Originally posted by jonnydel:
Y'all need to stop worrying about the cap. I know that sounds head-in-the-sand, but there's no way the NFL is going to let the cap situation be as dismal as it's looking next year. These are ultra-rich owners. I'm pretty sure they're going to be willing to up the cap under an exception this off-season. Otherwise, any team in contention this year is screwed next year, not just us. They haven't released anything about it because this is the first year in a long time that teams actually have a LOT of leverage with pending FA's. Mark my words, there will be a cap adjustment right before FA this year and every will know what it is by February 15th.

Anyone still not think the NFL isn't going to make cap adjustments?

Agree. I've been thinking this. They might not raise it but I don't think it will be as low as some think either.

You would think because won't one of the nfl darling Saints be near over the cap by almost $100 million?

Not just the darling Saints. The Rams are -24 million - in LA where the NFL desperately wants that team to become a money monster, Steelers are -30, Packers -24, Chiefs -24.

These are top teams and top money making teams in the NFL. Take the Chiefs - for example.

Pat Mahomes has only a 980k base salary next year and a 21 mil roster bonus with an already prorated 2 mil bonus cap hit for a total cap hit of 24 mil next year. The only flexibility they have for him because of veteran minimum is to convert his roster bonus to signing bonus and prorate the 21 mil over 10 years and only save 2.1 mil and then he's a 31 mil cap hit in 2022....So, now they're down to -22 mil in space.
Tyreek Hill's in in the same position, already vet minimum salary with roster bonus, converted to signing and prorated they create 5.5 mil in space but he's then a 26 mil cap hit in 2022.
now they're down to -16.5

Frank Clark is the best restructure option - he'd save 13 mil in space but then have cap figures of 32.5 and 34.4 in 2022 and 23.
Down to -3 mil in space.

Chris Jones could be restructured - again, would have to be roster bonus to signing bonus and it'd save 13 mil but put him at cap figures of 29.5 and 27 in 2022 and 23 and they'd have a total of 10 mil in space to sign 15 FA's AND their draft class with free agents like: Sammy Watkins, Bashaud Breeland, Daniel Sorensen, Andrew Wylie(starting LG) Charvarius Ward, Tanoh Kpassagon(the other DT/3/4 end)

So, again, for the Chiefs to create just 10 mil in space if the cap stays the same as this year, they have to restructure all their top contract guys, screw themselves even worse for 2022 and 23(like.....bad, they would add over 20 mil in cap hit to 2022 and 23). You HAVE to realize the NFL and NFLPA are going to make things work somehow.

Originally posted by SD49er:
I have been a proponent of Jimmy as our QB throughout the off season and through the early part of the season. I just think evaluating him on this season is impossible because of the injuries. Injuries must be taken into account, and it's disconcerting that Jimmy can't stay healthy. But Jimmy is far from a finished product. I think a lot of the criticisms raised are well taken. This season has been crazy though. The complete offense has never played together. It should be undisputed at this point that if Jimmy can come back and play this season, assuming he is at or hear 100%, he must replace Mullens. Jimmy with the players that are available right now is a super bowl contender in what I think is a wide open NFC, even without Kittle.

As far as next year, there are limited scenarios in which Jimmy is not on our team at least one more year. Shanny isn't starting a rookie QB with the roster we have. There will also be limited veteran QBs available that we could replace Jimmy with, whether through free agency or trade. There are just not a lot of options for QBs who can arguably execute the offense better than Jimmy, for a reasonable price, who we have a reasonable shot at acquiring. We are all aware that roster changes are coming. But this team will still have all of the weapons on offense (and hopefully T. Williams), and most if not all of the core on defense (Bosa, Armstead, Kinlaw, Givens, Warner, Greenlaw, Moore, Ward, Mosely), and the opportunity to bring back guys like Sherman, Verret, Hyder, ect. Plus, free agency is going to be bizarre this year. Few teams will have cap space to pay free agents. I suspect player may be willing to take one year deals with a contender to get to another contract the following year, or will be forced to take a discount on longer term contracts.

It will make sense to keep Jimmy next year while developing a QB behind him. That gives us the best chance for next year and beyond.

I made this post a few days ago but I wanted to add it to your post, which I think is very fair.

Jimmy not playing and not being able to avoid injury is my biggest concern with him. He already lost out on 3.5 years holding a clipboard for Brady. Then he lost 2018 to the ACL and now he lost half of 2020 to the ankle. That's 4+ years not playing, not getting live reps to develop. Using hindsight, I think him balling out going 5-0 to end 2017, then getting a large contract based off of those 5 games was a terrible thing to happen to him from the standpoint of perception.

His development path should have been similar to Brady, RWilson, and Big Ben. Young QBs on contending teams, supported by a run game/defense as they played the role of game manager while developing into the passers that they are now. But those three QBs didn't have large contracts when they were young in their development, so when they game managed their way to their first SB during those early years, it was okay that they didn't throw for 4K yards - they were young and developing. There were no expectations to be THE focal point of the offense. Jimmy with his large contract does not get that patience from the fanbase.

I am not saying Jimmy will be the QB Brady/Wilson/Ben is, I am saying his development path should have been like theirs. Some will say that Jimmy is not a young QB - age wise I agree. But playing time wise, he is not the typical 30 year old QB that has had 5+ seasons of starting under his belt.

He needs to play to develop, but this habit of missing time due to injury is severely hurting his development.

Originally posted by SkyZer0:

except we're only discussing how clutch he has been for us all of last season and before that. you can use that game from this year to facilitate your ALEX argument, but not over the context of a full season clearly when it comes to showing examples like that rams game.

what happens to the ALEX stat when he converts to 3rd and 16's like that?

also that Rams game isnt the reason he got that contract, silly. you know better.

How does throwing the ball at one of the shortest distances in the league make you clutch? Especially when you're throwing INTs at such a high rate?

Dude the ALEX stat is from 2019 lol. What do you think FOs and next generation stats are lying? Nah dude it's data they don't care about fan-hood.

If he actually throws it 16 yards on 3rd down it pushes up his ALEX score. Those passes vs LA were awesome...It's all about from the LOS. If he throws a 2 yard screen to Mostert on 3rd and 15 and they get a 1st down that lowers his ALEX stat. IMO he did little to earn that 3rd down conversion. That's on the playmakers which did a lot of the work.

Yeah he got a $137M deal because of 4 games my bad.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by genus49:
I noticed you completely glossed over my post to you about the whole ALEX thing.

I'll keep it simple this time.

Josh Allen's ALEX score last year was like 3.4
Josh Allen's ALEX score this year is 0.3

Which Josh Allen is the better QB?

Taking away credit for Jimmy's ability to play well on 3rd down last year bringing up ALEX is lame. Jimmy isn't doing anything other QBs aren't allowed to do.

Not to mention which scenario are you picking?

It's 3rd and 7
1. QB throws 5 yards, WR picks up the first down
2. QB throws it 30 yards, WR is overthrown, 4th down coming up.

Yet ALEX in essence rewards scenario #2

I never saw your post. Never meant to gloss over anything.

I don't have a membership to FOs so I can't see the 2020 DOVA and ALEX scores for QBs anymore. You have it?

Please show me where they get rewarded for throwing an incompletion?

No where in the definition of this stat does it say this...

ALEX: Air Less EXpected. ALEX measures the average difference between how far a quarterback threw a pass (air yards) and how many yards he needed for a first down. If a quarterback throws a pass 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage on third-and-15, that would be minus-20 ALEX. The best application of ALEX is to look at third and fourth down when it's really crucial to get 100 percent of the need yards to extend the drive. A high ALEX would be indicative of a quarterback who aggressively attacks the sticks, while a low ALEX is indicative of a conservative quarterback more likely to check down and/or rely on YAC. Yes, the name is inspired by Alex Smith, who frequently has one of the lowest ALEX averages in the league.

Even if the stat is all attempts...what about this scenario

1. 3&7 Jimmy dumps it 3 yards ahead of the LOS and they don't get a 1st down. Kittle/Deebo can't break the 3 tackles that we're asking them to do all the damn time (increasing chance of injury in the process)

1. 3&7 Jimmy throws the ball 10 yards ahead of the LOS and they don't get a 1st down.

Again he relied on YAC, is it the worst thing no...it is however disingenuous to give him all the credit for converting all these 3rd downs without SAYING that he relied on our playmakers to get YAC. Let all stop pretending like they wasn't a thing last yr.

Do we need to pay a QB $137M to throw short of the sticks more than any QB in football?

It's free...just have to sign up.

The STAT basically gives QBs a + for throwing beyond the down marker so yes it does reward them for deeper throws - regardless of whether they were completed or not.

Your scenario doesn't change anything. Jimmy is playing within the offense. You're trying to fault him for using the weapons we have who are drafted and known for their YAC abilities. In an offense which relies HEAVILY on yards after the catch. You want to give Kyle all the credit for Jimmy's good but now want to knock Jimmy for playing within the offense.

As I said why is nobody else doing this? Josh Allen's drop in ALEX from last year to this year alone should indicate the stat is limited in terms of showing good QB play.

It's simply showing aggressiveness by the QB without any context to whether that aggressiveness is good for the team or not.