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Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Los Angeles Rams

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Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by genus49:
BTW just to put all this ALEX crap to rest.

I looked back at Matt Ryan's 2016 season...you know the one where he was league MVP under Kyle? With good pass blocking and a guy like Julio Jones.

His ALEX grade from that season was -0.2

Jimmy in 2019 was -0.1

Think maybe Kyle's offense could be a common denominator?

That's why I think that ALEX stat is more a measurement of the offense. I bet the QBs in Bruce Arians 'no risk it, no biscuit' offense has positive ALEX scores. Can you confirm or deny this, if it's quick and easy to do?

I think we need to keep in mind too that Kyle is calling the games differently and it's not because of a QB's limitations.

I said it on a podcast about a month ago, but that I felt like Kyle was calling plays more as a head coach than as an OC. As an OC, his job is to score points, as a HC, it's to win games.

Interestingly enough, Kyle pretty much said the same thing last week or the week before. He said that he calls plays differently now because he's a head coach and he's thinking more about what puts the team in the best position to win and I think he almost said verbatim that when he was an OC it was just about scoring points.

I think we see more ball control offense with Jimmy, not because of lack of trust or faith, but because of faith and trust in him.

Consider this scenario - you feel like you have to get more explosive plays downfield with some of your backups because you don't have faith you can execute long drives down the field and multiple 3rd and 5+'s. With Jimmy, you feel like even if you get in 3rd and 7, you like your chances. So, if you aren't confident in the team and the QB executing long drives to drain clock, you'll take more chances because you have to score points and you have to be more aggressive. Anyone really feel ultra confident in Mullens on a 3rd and 7? I don't. We saw Jimmy convert a ton of those last year - best 3rd down QB in the league last year. So, if I'm Kyle, just trying to think of it from a HC perspective, I'm happy dinking and dunking and running the ball, draining the clock and keeping my defense fresh because I know even if we get 2 runs in a row stuffed, I believe my QB can convert and we can keep chugging on that run game.

Not saying it is or isn't this way, just one way to look at it. I doubt it changes anyone's mind though.
  • thl408
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Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by genus49:
BTW just to put all this ALEX crap to rest.

I looked back at Matt Ryan's 2016 season...you know the one where he was league MVP under Kyle? With good pass blocking and a guy like Julio Jones.

His ALEX grade from that season was -0.2

Jimmy in 2019 was -0.1

Think maybe Kyle's offense could be a common denominator?

That's why I think that ALEX stat is more a measurement of the offense. I bet the QBs in Bruce Arians 'no risk it, no biscuit' offense has positive ALEX scores. Can you confirm or deny this, if it's quick and easy to do?

They're up there for the most part. Brady is at 2.6 this year. Palmer towards the end of his career was low on the list with 0.3 in 2017 and -0.1 in 2016 but he was at 4.3 in 2015 and he was at 2.0 with Stanton at 4.1 in 2014.

And I agree with your point and was trying to imply that as well. It's a lot more offense/personnel driven. We're a WCO based offense with guys whose strength is YAC. We shouldn't expect our QBs to air it out well beyond the yard marker most of the time because it likely means bad things for us winning games.

43 year old Brady isn't a prime example of what Bruce Arians really wants to do so I'm surprised that Brady has a positive ALEX in 2020. I think QBs in an Air Coryell system will typically have a positive ALEX. An Air Coryell offense is more likely to throw deep.
I wonder what Alex's ALEX is in 2020. or is ALEX Alex's ALEX?
Originally posted by SkyZer0:
I wonder what Alex's ALEX is in 2020. or is ALEX Alex's ALEX?

-4
Originally posted by jonnydel:
They agreed to a floor, meaning they don't know the revenues with the uncertainty but all agreed that anything below 175 mil would destroy the league as the revenues on a per team average could be as low as 270 million.

That doesn't mean they agreed to a cap. To me, it's a good faith gesture by the owners to set the precedent with the union that they're willing to bypass the 47% cap calculation to protect the game - but will then expect players to do their part and agree to a league wide pay-cut claused into all contracts to try and maintain the market values of players.

I get that it's capitalism, but the NFL is also a product based game. They've worked for their audience for decades and while we can act like owners are just greedy guys, they're business men first and foremost and entertainment business men. You protect your audience - that's your real product. That's what they sell advertisers. They don't sell advertisers the games or the scores, they sell the audience. If you lose your audience, you lose your product.

They're not going to further risk losing an audience because once you lose an audience, it's very, very hard to get them back - just ask WCW or WWF/E, if you're familiar with wrestling, how easy it is to get the 11 million people who were watching in 1998 and aren't watching now, to come back.

If you allow the league to be gutted of dozens and dozens of playmakers and fill out teams with 1 year players or UDFA's because of the cap, the audience will leave and your product is less valuable.

The audience isn't going anywhere, especially if it's for a season. The owners having a good faith gesture is funny. The literally wanted the opposite of what the players wanted during negations

It's not just about the cap, but actual cash that they have to hand out

https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-salary-cap-conundrum-three-major-consequences-of-projected-decrease

Before diving into the potential ripple effects of a decreased cap, I want to state that I believe the need for cash spending by clubs will increase in 2021. Generally speaking, the way most club's lower cap numbers is by spending more cash in the present to spread the cap hit out over future years. However, as we all know, it has been a very difficult year for teams and owners to generate revenue, so the availability of cash might be a real issue for some organizations. In addition, this type of cash now/credit card borrowing will likely increase to push spending forward, but past credit card borrowing may exacerbate problems for teams this year because the bill might come due.

Once the TV rights are done (2022) they will have plenty of capital going forward.

Like everything in the world s**t is gonna be a little lean for the next yr....the NFL like everything else will have to adapt. Including the players.
Originally posted by genus49:
How can anyone say that when you have Tom Brady doing what he's doing? You think Drew Brees is much more athletically/physically gifted than Garoppolo?

These guys simply worked on the fundamentals and the mental part of the game and got better and better with limited athletic traits.

And before you come back with "So now Jimmy can be Brady/Brees" pump your breaks....simply pointing out that having a limited physical/athletic traits doesn't mean you cannot improve with more development/experience.

For every Brady/Brees there's a million case Keenum's & Alex Smith's? why does Jimmy get tossed into the QB HOFer category

Also if you don't want me to come back with that...then don't throw those names out.
Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Think about it...alex smith just got $71 million guaranteed and jimmy G got $74 million lol

If any one is hating on this contract they need a slap in the face

Hey NY...

And it turns out Alex smith is very comparable to Jimmy G...got paid the same amount.

Makes sense
Originally posted by genus49:
Why the hell wouldn't i? Did the Rams just lay down? Why would I fault Jimmy or discount a game just because the opponent decided to rest their starters? Let's not forget we should've beaten them with their starters with Hoyer if not for a bogus OPI on Trent Taylor.

But why are we even having this conversation? What was your reaction to the deal at the time?

Oh stop the b******t genus

You got every excuse in the book for Jimmy when he doesn't play well and yet will give him all the praise in the world for beating the backup LA RAMS in week 17. likes that's an accomplishment. stop it....if it was a different team playing the Rams you'd be the first to point out they played the backups.

Dude I get it, you love him....where did your objectiveness go?
[ Edited by NYniner85 on Dec 2, 2020 at 12:42 PM ]
Originally posted by random49er:
So Kyle previously said he wouldn't bring Garoppolo back for meaningless games. How would you interpret that, given the cap hit Jimmy would have next season as it stands?

An interesting, comparative snippet:

The NFC West is home to three apparently indestructible starting quarterbacks.

And Jimmy Garoppolo.


The 49ers' QB, on injured reserve for the second time in three seasons, sticks out in a division in which his peers have not been sidelined.

Seattle's Russell Wilson hasn't missed a game in his 138-start career, the Rams' Jared Goff hasn't missed a game because of injury in his 64-start career and, though Arizona's Kyler Murray is just getting started, he has opened his career by making 26 straight starts.

The contrast with Garoppolo, who has suffered three significant injuries in his 32-start career, highlights a less-discussed aspect of the 49ers' much-discussed future decision on their QB.

That is, even if Garoppolo was a first-team All-Pro, the 49ers would need to significantly upgrade their backup spot in 2021 based on his inability to stay healthy.


Have all 3 simply been lucky?

LOL @ "inability" to stay healthy. LB lands on his shoulder in NE, his ACL tears from slipping on terrible turf in KC, and he gets hit two different times for high ankle sprains in 2020. These are bad luck injuries, not chronically hurt injuries. Hes not constantly breaking bones or tearing his hamstring on a non contact play.

In the NFL there are no "iron man" players. Just guys who get lucky. Russell Wilson could get his leg snapped in half next week. Or he could play the rest of his entire career without missing another start. Every player is one play away from the last of their career.

The real shame is that Garoppolo changed after he slipped on the turf in KC. He became more mindful of getting hit. More protective of that knee. The high ankle sprains this year aren't going to help either. He probably used to give his vulnerability zero thought during the play. Now its in the back of his head, trying to get his feet un planted asap before he can get hit. You could see in that Seahawks game he was jumping up and turning away from hits to protect his legs.

We need to shore up the OL to get his confidence in the pocket back.
  • thl408
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 32,523
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by genus49:
BTW just to put all this ALEX crap to rest.

I looked back at Matt Ryan's 2016 season...you know the one where he was league MVP under Kyle? With good pass blocking and a guy like Julio Jones.

His ALEX grade from that season was -0.2

Jimmy in 2019 was -0.1

Think maybe Kyle's offense could be a common denominator?

That's why I think that ALEX stat is more a measurement of the offense. I bet the QBs in Bruce Arians 'no risk it, no biscuit' offense has positive ALEX scores. Can you confirm or deny this, if it's quick and easy to do?

I think we need to keep in mind too that Kyle is calling the games differently and it's not because of a QB's limitations.

I said it on a podcast about a month ago, but that I felt like Kyle was calling plays more as a head coach than as an OC. As an OC, his job is to score points, as a HC, it's to win games.

Interestingly enough, Kyle pretty much said the same thing last week or the week before. He said that he calls plays differently now because he's a head coach and he's thinking more about what puts the team in the best position to win and I think he almost said verbatim that when he was an OC it was just about scoring points.

I think we see more ball control offense with Jimmy, not because of lack of trust or faith, but because of faith and trust in him.

Consider this scenario - you feel like you have to get more explosive plays downfield with some of your backups because you don't have faith you can execute long drives down the field and multiple 3rd and 5+'s. With Jimmy, you feel like even if you get in 3rd and 7, you like your chances. So, if you aren't confident in the team and the QB executing long drives to drain clock, you'll take more chances because you have to score points and you have to be more aggressive. Anyone really feel ultra confident in Mullens on a 3rd and 7? I don't. We saw Jimmy convert a ton of those last year - best 3rd down QB in the league last year. So, if I'm Kyle, just trying to think of it from a HC perspective, I'm happy dinking and dunking and running the ball, draining the clock and keeping my defense fresh because I know even if we get 2 runs in a row stuffed, I believe my QB can convert and we can keep chugging on that run game.

Not saying it is or isn't this way, just one way to look at it. I doubt it changes anyone's mind though.

Kyle's playcalling with Jimmy at QB can be interpreted however a person chooses. Like what you stated above, or that Kyle doesn't trust Jimmy to throw deep without it being schemed up with playaction and misdirection to get a WR wide open. I get what you are saying, that Kyle trusts Jimmy to execute longer, ball control type drives.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by jonnydel:
They agreed to a floor, meaning they don't know the revenues with the uncertainty but all agreed that anything below 175 mil would destroy the league as the revenues on a per team average could be as low as 270 million.

That doesn't mean they agreed to a cap. To me, it's a good faith gesture by the owners to set the precedent with the union that they're willing to bypass the 47% cap calculation to protect the game - but will then expect players to do their part and agree to a league wide pay-cut claused into all contracts to try and maintain the market values of players.

I get that it's capitalism, but the NFL is also a product based game. They've worked for their audience for decades and while we can act like owners are just greedy guys, they're business men first and foremost and entertainment business men. You protect your audience - that's your real product. That's what they sell advertisers. They don't sell advertisers the games or the scores, they sell the audience. If you lose your audience, you lose your product.

They're not going to further risk losing an audience because once you lose an audience, it's very, very hard to get them back - just ask WCW or WWF/E, if you're familiar with wrestling, how easy it is to get the 11 million people who were watching in 1998 and aren't watching now, to come back.

If you allow the league to be gutted of dozens and dozens of playmakers and fill out teams with 1 year players or UDFA's because of the cap, the audience will leave and your product is less valuable.

The audience isn't going anywhere, especially if it's for a season. The owners having a good faith gesture is funny. The literally wanted the opposite of what the players wanted during negations

It's not just about the cap, but actual cash that they have to hand out

https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-salary-cap-conundrum-three-major-consequences-of-projected-decrease

Before diving into the potential ripple effects of a decreased cap, I want to state that I believe the need for cash spending by clubs will increase in 2021. Generally speaking, the way most club's lower cap numbers is by spending more cash in the present to spread the cap hit out over future years. However, as we all know, it has been a very difficult year for teams and owners to generate revenue, so the availability of cash might be a real issue for some organizations. In addition, this type of cash now/credit card borrowing will likely increase to push spending forward, but past credit card borrowing may exacerbate problems for teams this year because the bill might come due.

Once the TV rights are done (2022) they will have plenty of capital going forward.

Like everything in the world s**t is gonna be a little lean for the next yr....the NFL like everything else will have to adapt. Including the players.

I understand the cash handed out - if anything, that proves my point. What that quote from the article is talking about is converting salaries to bonuses to spread the cap hit out by spending cash up front. So, he's saying that will be a tougher option. This goes along with what I showed as the only potential way for the Chiefs to get under the cap next year without creating more free agents was to do this and it would barely help them, cause them to shell out all the money in Feb-Mar and then give them huge cap hits down the road.

I also understand things are getting leaner, so, again, it's a good faith gesture in the sense that the owners are giving first. They're going above the 47% cap mark(it was projecting at possibly being 135 mil as a salary cap based off that calculation of revenues) to show players they're giving a good bit, now they're going to expect the players to do the same. If not, you're going to see a major market reset.

Why would the Vikings pay Danielle Hunter 12.1 mil in base salary if they can go sign Melvin Ingram, Shaquille Barrett, Ryan Kerrigan or Aldon Smith for 900k-1 mil? If Melvin Ingram is only getting a 6 mil a year contract because no one has cap space, how can Von Miller, Brandon Graham, Chandler Jones, JPP, Bradley Chubb(they're all going into their last year in 2021), or others demand 19-20 mil/year for an extension? They can't. So, it would completely destroy the market for years.

You would have teams trying to dump player contracts in bulk for a market reset to save room for years. This wouldn't be good for the players union any more than it would be for the NFL.

This is why I come back to the NFLPA agreeing to an across the board pay-cut. What you do is cut ALL salaries 5-7% - that would be about 8-10 mil per team, on average. You clause it into ALL contracts. That way, you maintain the market values. So, if, for example, Melvin Ingram signs a 4 year, 60 mil contract, it costs 14.25 year 1, not 15(at a 5% reduction). You maintain a market value on the contract but factor in a COVID year and reduce the salary.
Originally posted by Niners99:
Originally posted by random49er:
So Kyle previously said he wouldn't bring Garoppolo back for meaningless games. How would you interpret that, given the cap hit Jimmy would have next season as it stands?

An interesting, comparative snippet:

The NFC West is home to three apparently indestructible starting quarterbacks.

And Jimmy Garoppolo.


The 49ers' QB, on injured reserve for the second time in three seasons, sticks out in a division in which his peers have not been sidelined.

Seattle's Russell Wilson hasn't missed a game in his 138-start career, the Rams' Jared Goff hasn't missed a game because of injury in his 64-start career and, though Arizona's Kyler Murray is just getting started, he has opened his career by making 26 straight starts.

The contrast with Garoppolo, who has suffered three significant injuries in his 32-start career, highlights a less-discussed aspect of the 49ers' much-discussed future decision on their QB.

That is, even if Garoppolo was a first-team All-Pro, the 49ers would need to significantly upgrade their backup spot in 2021 based on his inability to stay healthy.


Have all 3 simply been lucky?

LOL @ "inability" to stay healthy. LB lands on his shoulder in NE, his ACL tears from slipping on terrible turf in KC, and he gets hit two different times for high ankle sprains in 2020. These are bad luck injuries, not chronically hurt injuries. Hes not constantly breaking bones or tearing his hamstring on a non contact play.

In the NFL there are no "iron man" players. Just guys who get lucky. Russell Wilson could get his leg snapped in half next week. Or he could play the rest of his entire career without missing another start. Every player is one play away from the last of their career.

The real shame is that Garoppolo changed after he slipped on the turf in KC. He became more mindful of getting hit. More protective of that knee. The high ankle sprains this year aren't going to help either. He probably used to give his vulnerability zero thought during the play. Now its in the back of his head, trying to get his feet un planted asap before he can get hit. You could see in that Seahawks game he was jumping up and turning away from hits to protect his legs.

We need to shore up the OL to get his confidence in the pocket back.

i don't think there is any getting his confidence back after the toll the injuries keep taking.
Originally posted by genus49:
BTW just to put all this ALEX crap to rest.

I looked back at Matt Ryan's 2016 season...you know the one where he was league MVP under Kyle? With good pass blocking and a guy like Julio Jones.

His ALEX grade from that season was -0.2

Jimmy in 2019 was -0.1

Think maybe Kyle's offense could be a common denominator?

All the ALEX score says is that he throws short of the 1st down marker a lot on 3rd down....good bad that's the truth of it. Same thing with AYTS. There's nothing wrong with giving some credit to the player makers who get those shorter passes and convert those 1st downs? Not sure why that's such a hard thing to acknowledge?

As far as Matt Ryan, yes similar ALEX score BUT what separated the two is his IAY (Average Intended Air Yards)

2016 Matt Ryan was avg 9 IAY per pass attempt. 2019 Jimmy avg 6.2 IAY per passing attempt. That's a big difference overall.

Again you keep neglecting the fact that Jimmy threw the ball at one of the shortest distance in the league AND yet still was top 8 in INT % What's that all about?
Originally posted by Niners99:
Originally posted by random49er:
So Kyle previously said he wouldn't bring Garoppolo back for meaningless games. How would you interpret that, given the cap hit Jimmy would have next season as it stands?

An interesting, comparative snippet:

The NFC West is home to three apparently indestructible starting quarterbacks.

And Jimmy Garoppolo.

The 49ers' QB, on injured reserve for the second time in three seasons, sticks out in a division in which his peers have not been sidelined.

Seattle's Russell Wilson hasn't missed a game in his 138-start career, the Rams' Jared Goff hasn't missed a game because of injury in his 64-start career and, though Arizona's Kyler Murray is just getting started, he has opened his career by making 26 straight starts.

The contrast with Garoppolo, who has suffered three significant injuries in his 32-start career, highlights a less-discussed aspect of the 49ers' much-discussed future decision on their QB.

That is, even if Garoppolo was a first-team All-Pro, the 49ers would need to significantly upgrade their backup spot in 2021 based on his inability to stay healthy.


Have all 3 simply been lucky?

LOL @ "inability" to stay healthy. LB lands on his shoulder in NE, his ACL tears from slipping on terrible turf in KC, and he gets hit two different times for high ankle sprains in 2020. These are bad luck injuries, not chronically hurt injuries. Hes not constantly breaking bones or tearing his hamstring on a non contact play.

In the NFL there are no "iron man" players. Just guys who get lucky. Russell Wilson could get his leg snapped in half next week. Or he could play the rest of his entire career without missing another start. Every player is one play away from the last of their career.

The real shame is that Garoppolo changed after he slipped on the turf in KC. He became more mindful of getting hit. More protective of that knee. The high ankle sprains this year aren't going to help either. He probably used to give his vulnerability zero thought during the play. Now its in the back of his head, trying to get his feet un planted asap before he can get hit. You could see in that Seahawks game he was jumping up and turning away from hits to protect his legs.

We need to shore up the OL to get his confidence in the pocket back.
It's what fans do when they turn on a player for whatever reason. They did it to Jimmie Ward - even me.

Sometimes it is bad luck. Jimmie Ward is a good example of that. He was injured ALL. THE. TIME. for years and then the last 2 years I think he's played more snaps than anyone but Fred Warner and just had a monster of a game and Sherman keeps calling him one of the top 3 safeties in the league.
Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by SkyZer0:
I wonder what Alex's ALEX is in 2020. or is ALEX Alex's ALEX?

-4

why do you think they call it the ALEX score LOL...it's named after our boy Smith who's the dump off king and great at converting on 3rd downs.
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