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Originally posted by random49er:Lol nope. That game is an outlier. No matter how you spin it.
Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
In that MNF game.. Dolphins couldn't play defense
Colts Scored 21 points on 3 drives that total 11 plays, 240 yards in 4 mins time. Two of those TDs in the 4th Qtr
There you go,...you're beginning to trend in the right direction. Keep going...
Originally posted by NYniner85:Originally posted by TheWooLick:Is that an outlier?
3rd down conversion rates strongly correlate with winning. Higher 3rd down rates correlates to more sustained drives, TOP and scores.
You guys are arguing 3rd downs rates are unimportant just to support your opinions on Jimmy.
It is ridiculous.
Show me where I said it wasn't important? What I was asking in the pervious comment is 1st down very important as well? Is staying ahead of the chains important in regards to being MORE successful in converting on 3rd down more often? 1+1=2, no?
Goff has constantly been on the top 10 in that stat.
Originally posted by random49er:Originally posted by TheWooLick:Is that an outlier?
3rd down conversion rates strongly correlate with winning. Higher 3rd down rates correlates to more sustained drives, TOP and scores.
You guys are arguing 3rd downs rates are unimportant just to support your opinions on Jimmy.
It is ridiculous.
Obviously you aren't good at reading stats if you were just showed 5 years worth of data for all teams that showed a 51% correlation to winning. But some subjects obviously aren't meant for all, so I digress.
Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
i've taken feelings out of this.. but you're willing to take a pay cut for nothing to prove your point
As for money..what has been done is done. We paid Jimmy.
This is not Madden football you can't just get rid of players with no effect. The team loves jimmy. Chemistry can not be overpaid and it cannot be discounted
Paying Jimmy $26M just to watch him get hurt again is stupid business. Paying Jimmy $26M knowing you're gonna start someone else at some point this year is stupid business...players take pay cuts all the time. Jimmy shouldn't be any different...$12M is still a s**t ton of money (12th overall at his position which is high end proper value for him). He get's to be a FA, compete to start on a SB roster, and he wouldn't find that type of cash on the open market right now. period.
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
What showed a 51% correlation to winning?
The Tennessee Titans ended the 2013 season ranked 8th in the NFL in fact, with a 3rd down conversion rate of 41.41%, trailing Denver, who's way at the top at No.1, by 4%. Others in the top range? San Diego, New Orleans, and Detroit. Makes sense, right? Those teams had great offenses this past season.
Hold on though. The top ranking of 3rd down conversion % also include also Atlanta, Carolina, and yes, Tennessee. Where did those teams rank in overall offense? 14th, 26th, and 22nd, respectively, far from the NFL's elite. Philadelphia, who boasted the 2nd most prolific offense of the 2013 season, was way down at 14th in 3rd down conversion %.
So you can see that while 3rd down completion percentage can be indicative of a larger picture of offensive success, it is definitely not a cornerstone statistic to be used when discussing and determining the best offenses in the NFL.
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
And the Rams record with him starting is 42-27.
3rd down conversion rates correlate to winning.
So you guys are wondering if first downs in general are important? LOL
Originally posted by random49er:
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
What showed a 51% correlation to winning?
Causation/Correlation. 3rd down success correlates, but it his horrible as a predictor of continuation of success. 3rd down stats from game to game and season to season can be all over the place. So it is more of a hanger-on stat than something independently telling the story unlike, say, passer rating, that strongly predicts future 3rd down percentage.
Tbh more numbers are probably beyond your scope, so I won't introduce them further to you, given how you can continue asking the same "yes or no" questions to posters that have answered you repeatedly.
I will quote other instances, however.
The Tennessee Titans ended the 2013 season ranked 8th in the NFL in fact, with a 3rd down conversion rate of 41.41%, trailing Denver, who's way at the top at No.1, by 4%. Others in the top range? San Diego, New Orleans, and Detroit. Makes sense, right? Those teams had great offenses this past season.
Hold on though. The top ranking of 3rd down conversion % also include also Atlanta, Carolina, and yes, Tennessee. Where did those teams rank in overall offense? 14th, 26th, and 22nd, respectively, far from the NFL's elite. Philadelphia, who boasted the 2nd most prolific offense of the 2013 season, was way down at 14th in 3rd down conversion %.
So you can see that while 3rd down completion percentage can be indicative of a larger picture of offensive success, it is definitely not a cornerstone statistic to be used when discussing and determining the best offenses in the NFL.
The context of the discussion has consistently been "how good player x is RIGHT NOW,".....yet, hell, 3rd down percentages swing wildly from 1 season to the next, let alone 2 years ago. It's just absolutely horrible to try to use independently to tell us how good of a player someone is.
Toss it out with the trash for predicting anything.
Originally posted by NYniner85:wow NY just wow my job scenario was not about feelings, it was, would you do it. you said yes
Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
i've taken feelings out of this.. but you're willing to take a pay cut for nothing to prove your point
As for money..what has been done is done. We paid Jimmy.
This is not Madden football you can't just get rid of players with no effect. The team loves jimmy. Chemistry can not be overpaid and it cannot be discounted
lol you asked how I would FEEL about it if my boss asked me to take less money...how is that taking feelings out of this? That's the opposite of what you're saying you're doing...same when talking about the psyche of a locker room. You don't pay someone $26M because of feelings. Football players know this is a business, this isn't summer camp. It's a job.
what was done is done, you don't have to continue to be stupid with money just because.
Yeah you're right the NFL doesn't just get rid of football players ever
Originally posted by NYniner85:
I wonder what the correlation between INT % and winning % is?
Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
wow NY just wow my job scenario was not about feelings, it was, would you do it. you said yes
The feelings part i mention on this, is your own personal feeling towards jimmy and all your posts on how terrible he is so he deserves a pay cut
Ok so you don't beilieve in team chemistry fine, but not sure about paying 26 for feelings is about? The 26 was already in the contract since 2018.
is the 49ers being stupid with the money for Fred Warner? there is no gurantee that he will keep accesding. you end up payng in hoping the future pans out. like what we did with jimmy. it may work, it may not.
you're last take is all your feelings on injuries, scenarios, decisions that haven't been close to knowing how it will end up.
Sounds like you are already angry at the 49ers on how they spend their money and if no pay cut happens to jimmy. Jimmy's pay had no effect on the Warner extension meaning a pay cut is unlikely and it looks like it leaves no leverage to force one.
Originally posted by NYniner85:lol ok NY
Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
wow NY just wow my job scenario was not about feelings, it was, would you do it. you said yes
The feelings part i mention on this, is your own personal feeling towards jimmy and all your posts on how terrible he is so he deserves a pay cut
Ok so you don't beilieve in team chemistry fine, but not sure about paying 26 for feelings is about? The 26 was already in the contract since 2018.
is the 49ers being stupid with the money for Fred Warner? there is no gurantee that he will keep accesding. you end up payng in hoping the future pans out. like what we did with jimmy. it may work, it may not.
you're last take is all your feelings on injuries, scenarios, decisions that haven't been close to knowing how it will end up.
Sounds like you are already angry at the 49ers on how they spend their money and if no pay cut happens to jimmy. Jimmy's pay had no effect on the Warner extension meaning a pay cut is unlikely and it looks like it leaves no leverage to force one.
Where did I say he was terrible? That's you being defensive and all up in your feelings with Jimmy. What I'm stating has absolutely nothing to do about feelings and is about business.
What team chemistry? Jimmy has literally played one full season with everyone lol. I'm sure you'd be screaming "team chemistry" if they traded for Watson earlier in the off season (which you were ALL about), amirite
Fred Warner has nothing to do with this, he hasn't missed a game and is literally the best LBer in football (top 3 at worst)..that's nor really debatable. He was making 3rd round money up until now. It was his turn to get paid.
We can debate if Jimmy is even top 15 at this point. Jimmy GOT his money already ($48M), after that he's not GTD s**t. He's been getting paid to not play football for multiple years now. Not sure how you think that's good business? They were going after guys like Flacco/Dalton for a reason...cheap bridge QB for the rookie.
No that is actually how the NFL works, if you don't play up to par you get cut or asked to take a pay cut, if you can't stay healthy same thing. You're living in some fantasy land thinking SF actually owes Jimmy something at this point in his contract.
I already said it probably isn't gonna happen...the pay cut would roll over more money and put it towards a Bosa extension or maybe a new EDGE/CB in 2022. Simply put you're cool with throwing money in the trash just because. I disagree with that. You've already said you expect Jimmy to get injured at some point lol.
SF has all the leverage, what they did for another player means nothing....they could say take a pay cut or we're gonna cut you. Got luck finding someone that is gonna pay you $12M and allow you to compete to start on a SB caliber roster, at this point Jimmy and his agent need to focus on his next contract.
The ability of a team to convert 3rd downs is directly impacted by how far they have to go. That may seem like a "duh" statement, but people seem to forget this when discussing conversion rates. The question shouldn't be what was a team's conversion rate, it should be what was their average yards to gain?
People tend to ignore the actual variables that cause conversions and instead act as is there is some special conversion skill unique to 3rd downs. That's just football woo.
The Seattle offense faced an average of 6.59 yards on their 3rd downs, ranking 17th longest. Based on the numbers behind this graph, that should be about a 41.3% conversion rate compared to their actual rate of 40.9%. Now, that's a very simplistic rough estimate, so take it with a grain of salt, but the point is yards goes a long way in explaining the poor results and not some mysterious lack of 3rd down conversion ability.
Similarly, on defense, opponents faced the 23rd longest 3rd downs (10th shortest), which pretty much explains a 26th ranking in conversion rate. So, did the team have a 3rd down conversion problem or did they have 3rd down yardage problem?
To show that conversion rate isn't unique to 3rd downs, I have added 2nd down conversions to the above graph.
Getting better at 3rd down conversions doesn't require some turbo-boost special skill, it just requires having fewer yards to gain. You want to get better at 3rd down? Get better at 1st & 2nd downs.
