Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Izyniner:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by boast:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:
The game plan shouldn't impact CPoE.

His AYPA in this game is not that different from the last 3 seasons where he's been near last in AYPA each season.

yet his ANY/A is top 5 so far this year

ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt) includes INTs, TDs and sacks..

1. Wilson: 11.4
2. Stafford: 11.0
3. Mahomes: 10.8
4. Taylor: 10.5
5. Garoppolo: 9.6
6. Murray: 9.0
7. Bridgewater: 8.5
8. Carr: 8.3
9. Brady: 8.2
10. Mayfield: 8.2 https://t.co/e9axIvPHWU

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) September 22, 2021

This stat probably belongs in the Deebo thread since he's either 1st or 2nd in YACoE.

KaThump Kathump you hear that. Oh it's the goal post's moving again.

yup..with that kind of post.. how can someone say they are not truly a hater

How is that hate? To minimize Deebo's contribution to the offense seems more hateful. Are you a Deebo hater? He's leading the league in AYACAE. That makes a huge difference in YPA numbers.

Did debo throw the ball to himself ?

as bad as you say jimmy is, how does Debo get a chance to get all that YAC

Do you even hear yourself when you post this s**t ?

AYACAE factors in ball location and things like nearest defender when determining the expected YAC, so Deebo is getting more YAC than is expected regardless of how open he was initially or how well the ball was placed.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:
Completion Percentage over Expectation, essentially the difference between the QB's completion percentage vs. the probability of those passes being completed.

Nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#completionPercentageAboveExpectation

Sounds very subjective.
What is the formula used to determine probability?

Nextgenstats uses their own proprietary formula that is based on tracking data provided to them by the NFL.

"Completion Probability
The probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more."

However, most sites don't have access to that data, so they determine a close approximation of that number by looking at the depth and location of each pass and how often passes with the same depth and location were completed over thousands of plays to get the expected completion percentage.

So what does that determine ?

what is the end result ?

I think it's a fancy way to calculate passing accuracy.

What's wrong with Completion %

It doesn't account for difficulty. If a QB attempts only short passes or checkdowns then their completion percentage will be higher than someone who throws down the field consistently. CPoE attempts to factor in difficulty to get a better estimate of passing accuracy.

again

So what does that determine ?

what is the end result ?

Accuracy. It's also the advanced stat with the highest correlation to an NFL QB's long term success as well as the highest correlation in determining whether a college QB will be successful in the NFL, so it's a highly regarded stat in the analytics community.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Did debo throw the ball to himself ?

as bad as you say jimmy is, how does Debo get a chance to get all that YAC

Do you even hear yourself when you post this s**t ?

It's beyond comical at this point with some of these posters.

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by Sinsation:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Jimmy Garoppolo pocket mobility >>>>> Trey Lance pocket mobility

Jimmy has greatly improved that this year I've noticed.

Jimmy looks more nimble, but Trey is by far the better runner.

Pocket mobility is not the same as being a runner. Tom Brady might be the slowest player in the NFL but has great pocket mobility.

^ This man just "gets it."

Originally posted by boast:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Izyniner:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by boast:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:
The game plan shouldn't impact CPoE.

His AYPA in this game is not that different from the last 3 seasons where he's been near last in AYPA each season.

yet his ANY/A is top 5 so far this year

ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt) includes INTs, TDs and sacks..

1. Wilson: 11.4
2. Stafford: 11.0
3. Mahomes: 10.8
4. Taylor: 10.5
5. Garoppolo: 9.6
6. Murray: 9.0
7. Bridgewater: 8.5
8. Carr: 8.3
9. Brady: 8.2
10. Mayfield: 8.2 https://t.co/e9axIvPHWU

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) September 22, 2021

This stat probably belongs in the Deebo thread since he's either 1st or 2nd in YACoE.

KaThump Kathump you hear that. Oh it's the goal post's moving again.

yup..with that kind of post.. how can someone say they are not truly a hater

How is that hate? To minimize Deebo's contribution to the offense seems more hateful. Are you a Deebo hater? He's leading the league in AYACAE. That makes a huge difference in YPA numbers.

no one is minimizing Deebo tho. nice false argument.

but youre clearly minimizing Jimmy

How am I minimizing Jimmy by pointing out Deebo's contribution? Deebo's performance helps explain the large difference between AYPA and ANY/A.

Giving Jimmy (or any one player) 100% credit for things is absolutely diminishing Deebo and the other 51 players on the team. Anytime someone posts a stat about the team's winning percentage (2-0, 22-8, etc.) in this thread and attributes that to Jimmy, they're essentially saying that the other 52 players don't matter at all.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by Sinsation:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Jimmy Garoppolo pocket mobility >>>>> Trey Lance pocket mobility

Jimmy has greatly improved that this year I've noticed.

Jimmy looks more nimble, but Trey is by far the better runner.

Pocket mobility is not the same as being a runner. Tom Brady might be the slowest player in the NFL but has great pocket mobility.

^ This man just "gets it."

Yeah, he's jonnydel he knows what he speaks of.

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:
Completion Percentage over Expectation, essentially the difference between the QB's completion percentage vs. the probability of those passes being completed.

Nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#completionPercentageAboveExpectation

Sounds very subjective.
What is the formula used to determine probability?

Nextgenstats uses their own proprietary formula that is based on tracking data provided to them by the NFL.

"Completion Probability
The probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more."

However, most sites don't have access to that data, so they determine a close approximation of that number by looking at the depth and location of each pass and how often passes with the same depth and location were completed over thousands of plays to get the expected completion percentage.

So what does that determine ?

what is the end result ?

I think it's a fancy way to calculate passing accuracy.

What's wrong with Completion %

It doesn't account for difficulty. If a QB attempts only short passes or checkdowns then their completion percentage will be higher than someone who throws down the field consistently. CPoE attempts to factor in difficulty to get a better estimate of passing accuracy.

again

So what does that determine ?

what is the end result ?

Accuracy. It's also the advanced stat with the highest correlation to an NFL QB's long term success as well as the highest correlation in determining whether a college QB will be successful in the NFL, so it's a highly regarded stat in the analytics community.

70.9 comp % can easily show you that

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by boast:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Finished reviewing Eagles-49ers. Jimmy G.'s avg. pass traveled 3.6 yards past LOS - lowest of any Wk. 2 starter.

Missed throws usually considered "routine" for NFL QBs. Ranked 25th out of 31 in CPOE.

Wonder how many games like that he can afford and still keep the starting job.

— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) September 21, 2021

that last sentence shows this guy is full of s**t.

Like I always say, numbers lie and liars use numbers. You can say he had the lowest air yards - we ran like 12 effing screens. Why? How good was our run game? Serious question. How good? We had one big run to Hasty - late in the game AFTER we ran about 11 screens and before that we were at about 2 yards per carry.
PHI's D line was penetrating aggressively every. single. play. It was an attempt to slow them down. It worked. It opened up a big run to set up a touchdown late in the game.

But sure, "lowest of any week 2 starter" without any context to the chess match of the game. It's why I don't give 2 rat farts about these kinds of "analysis".

I keep saying that air yards is a function of the offense/gameplan, not the QB. Especially when using that stat for one game. Screen passes take the decision making process out of the QB's hands because he has to throw the screen pass - he has no choice, he's executing the playcall. If Jimmy attempted a hail mary, would that bump the air yards up to 5? Is that how that stat works? If so, that illustrates how silly that stat is.

The game plan shouldn't impact CPoE.

His AYPA in this game is not that different from the last 3 seasons where he's been near last in AYPA each season.

Yes it will. When teams start getting up by a lot, the coverages change and because CPoE isn't based off coverage, it's purely based off distance of throw based off averages, it won't take that into account. Not every 12 yard throws is the same depending on down and distance, lead in the game or coverage.

CPoE has Teddy Bridgewater ahead of Patrick Mahomes right now - are we really going to believe that's a highly reliable metric? Teddy Bridgewater is 2nd in the league. Why? Matthew stafford is ranked 18th, 4 spots behind our own Jimmy G - yet a whole ton of people here said Matthew Stafford was lightyears ahead of Jimmy in arm talent.

Air yards per attempt - No, it wasn't the same....In this game it was almost half of what his AYPA was in 2019 - might have something to do with the bajillion screen plays called - that's why I hate that metric. It's literally a fantasy football metric and has shown zero correlation to wins/losses.

Originally posted by boast:
no one is minimizing Deebo tho. nice false argument.

but youre clearly minimizing Jimmy

It's what some of these posters do, either subtly or not so subtly, and in the process it reveals some things about actual football knowledge.

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by boast:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Izyniner:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by boast:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:
The game plan shouldn't impact CPoE.

His AYPA in this game is not that different from the last 3 seasons where he's been near last in AYPA each season.

yet his ANY/A is top 5 so far this year

ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt) includes INTs, TDs and sacks..

1. Wilson: 11.4
2. Stafford: 11.0
3. Mahomes: 10.8
4. Taylor: 10.5
5. Garoppolo: 9.6
6. Murray: 9.0
7. Bridgewater: 8.5
8. Carr: 8.3
9. Brady: 8.2
10. Mayfield: 8.2 https://t.co/e9axIvPHWU

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) September 22, 2021

This stat probably belongs in the Deebo thread since he's either 1st or 2nd in YACoE.

KaThump Kathump you hear that. Oh it's the goal post's moving again.

yup..with that kind of post.. how can someone say they are not truly a hater

How is that hate? To minimize Deebo's contribution to the offense seems more hateful. Are you a Deebo hater? He's leading the league in AYACAE. That makes a huge difference in YPA numbers.

no one is minimizing Deebo tho. nice false argument.

but youre clearly minimizing Jimmy

How am I minimizing Jimmy by pointing out Deebo's contribution? Deebo's performance helps explain the large difference between AYPA and ANY/A.

Giving Jimmy (or any one player) 100% credit for things is absolutely diminishing Deebo and the other 51 players on the team. Anytime someone posts a stat about the team's winning percentage (2-0, 22-8, etc.) in this thread and attributes that to Jimmy, they're essentially saying that the other 52 players don't matter at all.

so where's jimmy's contribution posts ?

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by Sinsation:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Jimmy Garoppolo pocket mobility >>>>> Trey Lance pocket mobility

Jimmy has greatly improved that this year I've noticed.

Jimmy looks more nimble, but Trey is by far the better runner.

Pocket mobility is not the same as being a runner. Tom Brady might be the slowest player in the NFL but has great pocket mobility.

^ This man just "gets it."

Yeah, he's jonnydel he knows what he speaks of.

But I knew what you meant! And you're right. If Trey ever gets outside the pocket, there's no comparison! And if Trey turns that athleticism and ability INTO pocket mobility, he's going to be unstoppable.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by Sinsation:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Jimmy Garoppolo pocket mobility >>>>> Trey Lance pocket mobility

Jimmy has greatly improved that this year I've noticed.

Jimmy looks more nimble, but Trey is by far the better runner.

Pocket mobility is not the same as being a runner. Tom Brady might be the slowest player in the NFL but has great pocket mobility.

^ This man just "gets it."

no one ever mentions that about brady. they just say he has great olines. but time and time again when the oline breaks down, he just buys extra time by moving within the pocket. dude is the GOAT, no debate.

NFL.COM QB Index

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-index-week-3-2021-season-rankings

Don't shoot the messenger, not me saying it

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by Sinsation:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Jimmy Garoppolo pocket mobility >>>>> Trey Lance pocket mobility

Jimmy has greatly improved that this year I've noticed.

Jimmy looks more nimble, but Trey is by far the better runner.

Pocket mobility is not the same as being a runner. Tom Brady might be the slowest player in the NFL but has great pocket mobility.

^ This man just "gets it."

no one ever mentions that about brady. they just say he has great olines. but time and time again when the oline breaks down, he just buys extra time by moving within the pocket. dude is the GOAT, no debate.

Yeah, Brady is elite inside the pocket.

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by boast:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Finished reviewing Eagles-49ers. Jimmy G.'s avg. pass traveled 3.6 yards past LOS - lowest of any Wk. 2 starter.

Missed throws usually considered "routine" for NFL QBs. Ranked 25th out of 31 in CPOE.

Wonder how many games like that he can afford and still keep the starting job.

— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) September 21, 2021

that last sentence shows this guy is full of s**t.

Like I always say, numbers lie and liars use numbers. You can say he had the lowest air yards - we ran like 12 effing screens. Why? How good was our run game? Serious question. How good? We had one big run to Hasty - late in the game AFTER we ran about 11 screens and before that we were at about 2 yards per carry.
PHI's D line was penetrating aggressively every. single. play. It was an attempt to slow them down. It worked. It opened up a big run to set up a touchdown late in the game.

But sure, "lowest of any week 2 starter" without any context to the chess match of the game. It's why I don't give 2 rat farts about these kinds of "analysis".

I keep saying that air yards is a function of the offense/gameplan, not the QB. Especially when using that stat for one game. Screen passes take the decision making process out of the QB's hands because he has to throw the screen pass - he has no choice, he's executing the playcall. If Jimmy attempted a hail mary, would that bump the air yards up to 5? Is that how that stat works? If so, that illustrates how silly that stat is.

The game plan shouldn't impact CPoE.

His AYPA in this game is not that different from the last 3 seasons where he's been near last in AYPA each season.

Yes it will. When teams start getting up by a lot, the coverages change and because CPoE isn't based off coverage, it's purely based off distance of throw based off averages, it won't take that into account. Not every 12 yard throws is the same depending on down and distance, lead in the game or coverage.

CPoE has Teddy Bridgewater ahead of Patrick Mahomes right now - are we really going to believe that's a highly reliable metric? Teddy Bridgewater is 2nd in the league. Why? Matthew stafford is ranked 18th, 4 spots behind our own Jimmy G - yet a whole ton of people here said Matthew Stafford was lightyears ahead of Jimmy in arm talent.

Air yards per attempt - No, it wasn't the same....In this game it was almost half of what his AYPA was in 2019 - might have something to do with the bajillion screen plays called - that's why I hate that metric. It's literally a fantasy football metric and has shown zero correlation to wins/losses.

NFL's official next gen stat does account for how open the receiver is, but even if you use the publicly available version of the stat, the impact of variance in different situations will be filtered out over time.

Stafford is ahead of Jimmy by about 3.5 percentage points in CPOE. Jimmy is 26th. Stafford is 20th.

Also, regarding Teddy Bridgewater vs Mahomes, Teddy has played well so far this season, but relying on any single stat is not going to tell the whole story and nobody would ever claim that a single stat does.

Jimmy's AYPA was half of his 2019 avg, but he ranked 31st in 2019 and so far is headed to a similar ranking.