Originally posted by 49ersRing:
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Originally posted by 49ersRing:
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Originally posted by boast:
Originally posted by 49ersRing:
that last sentence shows this guy is full of s**t.
Like I always say, numbers lie and liars use numbers. You can say he had the lowest air yards - we ran like 12 effing screens. Why? How good was our run game? Serious question. How good? We had one big run to Hasty - late in the game AFTER we ran about 11 screens and before that we were at about 2 yards per carry.
PHI's D line was penetrating aggressively every. single. play. It was an attempt to slow them down. It worked. It opened up a big run to set up a touchdown late in the game.
But sure, "lowest of any week 2 starter" without any context to the chess match of the game. It's why I don't give 2 rat farts about these kinds of "analysis".
I keep saying that air yards is a function of the offense/gameplan, not the QB. Especially when using that stat for one game. Screen passes take the decision making process out of the QB's hands because he has to throw the screen pass - he has no choice, he's executing the playcall. If Jimmy attempted a hail mary, would that bump the air yards up to 5? Is that how that stat works? If so, that illustrates how silly that stat is.
The game plan shouldn't impact CPoE.
His AYPA in this game is not that different from the last 3 seasons where he's been near last in AYPA each season.
Yes it will. When teams start getting up by a lot, the coverages change and because CPoE isn't based off coverage, it's purely based off distance of throw based off averages, it won't take that into account. Not every 12 yard throws is the same depending on down and distance, lead in the game or coverage.
CPoE has Teddy Bridgewater ahead of Patrick Mahomes right now - are we really going to believe that's a highly reliable metric? Teddy Bridgewater is 2nd in the league. Why? Matthew stafford is ranked 18th, 4 spots behind our own Jimmy G - yet a whole ton of people here said Matthew Stafford was lightyears ahead of Jimmy in arm talent.
Air yards per attempt - No, it wasn't the same....In this game it was almost half of what his AYPA was in 2019 - might have something to do with the bajillion screen plays called - that's why I hate that metric. It's literally a fantasy football metric and has shown zero correlation to wins/losses.
NFL's official next gen stat does account for how open the receiver is, but even if you use the publicly available version of the stat, the impact of variance in different situations will be filtered out over time.
Stafford is ahead of Jimmy by about 3.5 percentage points in CPOE. Jimmy is 26th. Stafford is 20th.
Also, regarding Teddy Bridgewater vs Mahomes, Teddy has played well so far this season, but relying on any single stat is not going to tell the whole story and nobody would ever claim that a single stat does.
Jimmy's AYPA was half of his 2019 avg, but he ranked 31st in 2019 and so far is headed to a similar ranking.
Nothing I've seen in their explanation of CPoE shows accounting for proximity of defenders. CPoE is a tool, but will still not tell you more than film will. That's why, even with all these advanced metrics, Kyle's not going to come out and say, "well, we see that their QB is ranked "x" in AYPA so we know we need to focus on this area of the field - no, he's gonna say, "you see on film what they're trying to do". There's not as many secrets as you'd think in the league in terms of what guys want to do and how they operate their stuff. That's why the chess match is so close each week. We're talking master chess players. Each one knows what move will counter what and it's all about precision in move making.
I've never seen anyone correlate CPoE to wins/losses, I've never seen anyone correlate AYPA to points scored and game-winning drives. It's a tool used by fans to try and prove points or evaluate players. I'll keep saying it til I die. Numbers lie and liars use numbers. Every cable news program says they are the "most watched". yeah, ok, "most watched by rural landowners who own 2 or more pickups between the ages of 52 and 60 who use John Deer tractors". Numbers tell part of a story but, IMO, should never be used in any sort of real analysis of how good/not good a player is. If we put all the numbers together over a long period of time the aggregate can tell us something but using CPoE in week 2 of the season and AYPA to prove anything is just using numbers to win an argument.
