Originally posted by 49ers808:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Yeah, it's possible the safety could go back. But he wasn't going to go back in time to stop that route.
Two reasons: (1) Because the better matchup is Sanu on a linebacker or strong safety. That FS was not going to get over fast enough to stop that little skinny post, which was on its break 1.25 seconds after the snap, indicating it's Sanu vs a LB or SS. (2) Because immediately after the snap, the linebacker on the left edge drifted into the flat.
You would still assume it was cover 1 or cover 3. It's still a single high look. The person who blew the coverage, by the way, WAS the safety who was cheating over. That was a ZONE coverage, not cover 1, as evidenced by the linebacker on the left side who showed blitz and then immediately bailed into the flat post-snap — which is one more reason Jimmy should have thrown it to Sanu — and the middle linebacker who also bailed into zone coverage.
If they are "switching to man coverage on the other side," whatever you mean by that, it's Sanu vs a linebacker or strong safety (and either way this is the case). That's a win 10 out of 10 times.
And it wasn't man, and Jimmy would have known IMMEDIATELY after the snap, because the linebacker on the left edge AND the middle linebacker on the line immediately bailed after the snap, the former drifting to the flat and the latter playing the middle. Given what he already knew about the single high look, this would have confirmed cover 3 AND that the middle was wide open (because the free safety had already moved four or five yards left of the left hash).
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You can deny it all you want here. But deep down inside you know that Tom Brady throws that to Sanu for 6.
Not sure if you saw my conversation with Jonny about this play a few pages back, but according to him it was a Cover 1 man. He said that play design was a one read only to Deebo.
(1) Just because he's Jonny doesn't mean he's right. Who do you trust more about the play? Jonny, or Jimmy Freaking Garoppolo? Even Jimmy indicated there was a progression, and that he didn't look towards Sanu because it was single high and that "Muhammed should've been taken away by the free safety." That's Jimmy saying that. How is it one read if Jimmy here is indicating that based on the coverage he thought Sanu would have been "taken away?" It's NOT a one read pass. Additionally, if it was a one read pass, Sanu wouldn't be holding up his hand. Moreover, if Jonny actually has the playbook as he claims, well Shanahan passing plays have a progression written on them. Ask him to post it, so we can see that there's a progression, indicating that is NOT a one read play. This is nothing but a Jimmy-excuse. EVEN JIMMY GAROPPOLO indicated it was a PROGRESSION, and said that Deebo was the first in the progression due to the single high look.
(2) Is it cover 1 man? Why are the linebackers in zone? Immediately after the snap, the outside linebacker on the left (from the offensive view) drifts into the flat, the middle linebacker drops straight back. There are three WRs on the right side and only two defenders pre-snap. If this were cover one man in a blitz disguise, why did this happen: on the right side, you have two defenders inside the corner, and there are two WRs there (with the CB and WR on the outside locked up). Instead of each following a man, the guy in the middle of those three defenders follows a man, but the inside guy who lined up over Sanu drifts towards the middle of the field after trailing the WR who lines up on the inside of the bunch.
It looks more to me like a cover 3 with two disguises: first a pressure look and then a man look, followed immediately by what obviously appears to be zone (the right side linebacker and middle linebacker clearly dropping into zones). Other coverages it could be: busted cover six; it COULD be cover 1, but then you'd need several players clearly missing their assignments.
So yeah, you could argue it's cover 1. But then you have two odd things going on. First of all, why is the outside linebacker drifting into a flat zone? Maybe you could say the middle linebacker was matching up against the running back (he certainly runs that way when the running back leaves the pocket). But then you have to explain the lbs/ss on the other side. Why did no one follow Sanu?
If this was some form of cover one, there were blown asignments.
But that is irrelevant. Why?
Because even if it's cover 1, the FS is too far to the right to stop the play by Sanu, and Sanu would have been matched up with a LB or SS. That's a win for Sanu, and easily.
[ Edited by 5_Golden_Rings on Oct 28, 2021 at 11:01 AM ]
