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Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:
In honor of the great Jeff Foxworth, if you spend all your time with post after post writing long story novels nitpicking the best QB this franchise has had in the 21 century who just came off a 4 TD performance
you might be a Jimmy G hater
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Fun fact: Jimmy has the highest TD% (7.3%) over the last 3 weeks.
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Fun fact: Jimmy has the highest TD% (7.3%) over the last 3 weeks.
For the record, last year TD% had a 0.7236 correlation with win%, which is more than twice as important as air yards.
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
I said explosive plays thru the air.
I was merely showing that how we are doing it is working
Why does it matter how they look?
Because air yards are dope for highlights, bro.
Air yards tell you roughly how much credit the QB should get for a play (with the one caveat being that throwing in stride helps YAC). It is not hugely important to winning, but there is still a positive correlation. Interceptions per pass attempt are only SLIGHTLY more important to winning and losing in terms of win% correlation than completed air yards per pass attempt (CAY/ATT correlated with winning with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.3161, INT's coefficient was -0.3519).
The irony here is that Jimmy was top ten in CAY/ATT last year.
The reason why Jimmy not being near the top shouldn't entirely be considered a flaw, of course, is that if YOU had Deebo, McCaffrey, Kittle, Aiyuk, Juice and Jennings to throw to, you might consider the fact that with guys like that, you can probably still get big plays without the risk of throwing it further down field.
But air yards still gives you a rough idea about how much the QB contributed to a given completion.
The discussion was about explosive plays, which we're clearly good at. The point is why does it matter if it's from air yards or YAC/accuracy? I would agree that air yards has a positive correlation to winning, but that doesn't mean that chucking it up for the sake of getting air yards is smart. And that's essentially what the Jimmy detractors say - "just throw it deep." I'd like to see some deep shots too, personnel that specialize in that (like Gray) would/will help. But it has to happen organically, not just forced for the hell of it.
The 2022 version of Kyle and Jimmy is their best yet. Whether it's his repaired shoulder, Kyle loosening the reigns, Jimmy chirping at Kyle, Jimmy saying F it and letting it rip, Griese/footwork/mechanics, CMC, or a combination of some/all of those - I don't personally care. It's working and it's fun to watch. We can absolutely win the Super Bowl with this recipe. And if we do, I think the entire narrative around Jimmy drastically changes.
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Fun fact: Jimmy has the highest TD% (7.3%) over the last 3 weeks.
For the record, last year TD% had a 0.7236 correlation with win%, which is more than twice as important as air yards.
Who would have figured that?
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
I just figured if I'm going to bring up CAY/A having a slight positive correlation with winning, and INTs/game having a less than expected correlation with losing, that I ought to point out that TD% is one of the best indicators of winning quarterback play. And Jimmy through his career has usually done pretty good.
Originally posted by 49ers_Life:
Originally posted by dj43:
Good observation. Your point is at the heart of the story on Spotrac as to why Jimmy will accept a less-than-top-market deal to stay with the team next season.
By the end of this season, he will have been paid over $125,000,000 in his career. He is represented by a very good agent, the same one as Tom Brady, who has provided him with sound investment opportunities. Jimmy is already well-settled for the rest of his life. Hence, it is reasonable to expect JG to do the same as Brady, and take a lower salary in order to keep key players around him. What Jimmy wants, and what all of the Faithful want, is a ring. He will do his part to get it.
Ultimately, I believe it comes down to does Kyle and John want to install Jimmy as the Franchise QB again or not. Also wether Jimmy wants to be the guy. I believe if this happens, Trey is traded or he is Aaron Rodgers for the next 2-3 years. I think he would be traded personally.
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Fun fact: Jimmy has the highest TD% (7.3%) over the last 3 weeks.
For the record, last year TD% had a 0.7236 correlation with win%, which is more than twice as important as air yards.
Who would have figured that?
I just figured if I'm going to bring up CAY/A having a slight positive correlation with winning, and INTs/game having a less than expected correlation with losing, that I ought to point out that TD% is one of the best indicators of winning quarterback play. And Jimmy through his career has usually done pretty good.
Originally posted by ritz126:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
I just figured if I'm going to bring up CAY/A having a slight positive correlation with winning, and INTs/game having a less than expected correlation with losing, that I ought to point out that TD% is one of the best indicators of winning quarterback play. And Jimmy through his career has usually done pretty good.
i mean TD% is obviously important but as a stat its kind of misleading what about if we run it in? that doesn't really come up as TD% but obviously TD% will correlate higher to winning because higher TD% = more points
what i look at is how the offense function
yards/play
points/drive
to me those two are the most important stats into how the QB and offense is functioning
Originally posted by dj43:
In that case, the FO will attempt to recoup some of the draft capital it spent on TL. The question is; will any team see enough value in him to make an offer worth accepting? IMO, if the best offer is a 2nd round pick or less, Lance becomes Aaron Rodgers, Part II.
Originally posted by NYniner85:
5th highest passer rating in NFL history 👀
at some point you gotta say good job. He certainly doesn't stink and is a starting NFL QB. Dude will end up making well over $200M by the end of his career. That's nothing to sneeze at.
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Fun fact: Jimmy has the highest TD% (7.3%) over the last 3 weeks.
For the record, last year TD% had a 0.7236 correlation with win%, which is more than twice as important as air yards.
Who would have figured that?
I just figured if I'm going to bring up CAY/A having a slight positive correlation with winning, and INTs/game having a less than expected correlation with losing, that I ought to point out that TD% is one of the best indicators of winning quarterback play. And Jimmy through his career has usually done pretty good.
Originally posted by dj43:
In all this analysis, which is interesting, there should be extra credit for the QB if he gets the ball out before the OL is charged with a hit or a hurry. Since the QB is downgraded for taking a sack, he should get compensating credit for a play that benefits his OL teammates in their rating. Of course, there would have to be some balancing factor against the downgrade in air yards.
Obviously, I am being somewhat facetious, however, it does point out where fantasy football numbers have impacted the way fans view the game and the players. FF generates billion$ of dollars in ad revenue for the league and FanDuel and other gambling sites. Hence, all of these numbers create interest even though the numbers themselves are incidental to the outcome of the game. When the lead commercial on TNF Amazon Prime is about gambling/FF, we can get a good idea of the impact that aspect of NFL ball has on the overall revenue stream.
Well, that is the best I can do to contribute this morning as I try to overcome the indulgence at the table yesterday. Hope you all had a lot to be thankful for yesterday, and today.
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
No doubt Jimmy has played as good as he ever has the past 3 weeks. Having another weapon like CMC has made it easier for everyone, Kyle included.
When Jimmy looks at his options next year, he'll have a hard time finding a team that has as many weapons, as good a play designer and still has a need for a QB. He can't just go to any team that's willing to pay and expect success. He's with a team that has as many weapons as any team in the league and has a better than average O line anchored by the best left tackle in the league. He has 3 of the best YAC receivers in the league which allows Kyle to call plays that allow Jimmy to get the ball out quickly so he doesn't need to try and throw downfield. Finding a team that's loaded like the Niners and runs a similar offense and needs a QB won't be easy.
Good observation. Your point is at the heart of the story on Spotrac as to why Jimmy will accept a less-than-top-market deal to stay with the team next season.
By the end of this season, he will have been paid over $125,000,000 in his career. He is represented by a very good agent, the same one as Tom Brady, who has provided him with sound investment opportunities. Jimmy is already well-settled for the rest of his life. Hence, it is reasonable to expect JG to do the same as Brady, and take a lower salary in order to keep key players around him. What Jimmy wants, and what all of the Faithful want, is a ring. He will do his part to get it.
Originally posted by 49ersRing:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
No doubt Jimmy has played as good as he ever has the past 3 weeks. Having another weapon like CMC has made it easier for everyone, Kyle included.
When Jimmy looks at his options next year, he'll have a hard time finding a team that has as many weapons, as good a play designer and still has a need for a QB. He can't just go to any team that's willing to pay and expect success. He's with a team that has as many weapons as any team in the league and has a better than average O line anchored by the best left tackle in the league. He has 3 of the best YAC receivers in the league which allows Kyle to call plays that allow Jimmy to get the ball out quickly so he doesn't need to try and throw downfield. Finding a team that's loaded like the Niners and runs a similar offense and needs a QB won't be easy.
Good observation. Your point is at the heart of the story on Spotrac as to why Jimmy will accept a less-than-top-market deal to stay with the team next season.
By the end of this season, he will have been paid over $125,000,000 in his career. He is represented by a very good agent, the same one as Tom Brady, who has provided him with sound investment opportunities. Jimmy is already well-settled for the rest of his life. Hence, it is reasonable to expect JG to do the same as Brady, and take a lower salary in order to keep key players around him. What Jimmy wants, and what all of the Faithful want, is a ring. He will do his part to get it.
As one of Jimmy's biggest fans, I find it a bit disrespectful to ask him to take less than he's worth. We didn't ask Deebo or Warner or Kittle or Trent Williams to take less than they're worth. We won't ask Bosa to take less than he's worth. All of those guys could have made half of what they're currently making and would still have been set for life, but we paid them what the market has dictated they're worth. Why should Jimmy be the one that has to sacrifice money to remain with the team? He has one of the highest QB ratings of all-time and one of the highest W/L ratios of all-time, but he should be paid less than Russel Wilson, Kyler Murray, or Deshaun Watson? Doesn't seem right. Other QBs have earned $100m+ before signing record breaking deals, so that shouldn't matter either.
