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Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Los Angeles Rams

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Originally posted by ritz126:
Originally posted by dj43:
In that case, the FO will attempt to recoup some of the draft capital it spent on TL. The question is; will any team see enough value in him to make an offer worth accepting? IMO, if the best offer is a 2nd round pick or less, Lance becomes Aaron Rodgers, Part II.

why is everyone thinking short term is my question

we already have a great roster whats wrong with Lance sitting being Jimmy for a few years if Jimmy keeps playing well and stays healthy? Lance was already very raw coming out and while i do think playing him will speed up his development it shouldn't be at the cost of a SB. Keeping Lance could potentially benefit us for 10+ years i mean lets be honest at best Jimmy has 3-4 years max. Why trade him when he can benefit the franchise for 10+ years

Good points all.

The bold is the central idea. That is why yesterday I laid out the process by which we can sign JG to a 4-year deal AND keep other key starters. With the huge increases in the salary cap upcoming, and the fact Lance needs development time, "we can have our cake and eat it too."

Aaron Rodgers was certainly more pro-ready than Lance, but even he said that frustrating as it was, he benefitted from the extra years he spent watching.
Originally posted by 49ersRing:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
No doubt Jimmy has played as good as he ever has the past 3 weeks. Having another weapon like CMC has made it easier for everyone, Kyle included.

When Jimmy looks at his options next year, he'll have a hard time finding a team that has as many weapons, as good a play designer and still has a need for a QB. He can't just go to any team that's willing to pay and expect success. He's with a team that has as many weapons as any team in the league and has a better than average O line anchored by the best left tackle in the league. He has 3 of the best YAC receivers in the league which allows Kyle to call plays that allow Jimmy to get the ball out quickly so he doesn't need to try and throw downfield. Finding a team that's loaded like the Niners and runs a similar offense and needs a QB won't be easy.

Good observation. Your point is at the heart of the story on Spotrac as to why Jimmy will accept a less-than-top-market deal to stay with the team next season.

By the end of this season, he will have been paid over $125,000,000 in his career. He is represented by a very good agent, the same one as Tom Brady, who has provided him with sound investment opportunities. Jimmy is already well-settled for the rest of his life. Hence, it is reasonable to expect JG to do the same as Brady, and take a lower salary in order to keep key players around him. What Jimmy wants, and what all of the Faithful want, is a ring. He will do his part to get it.

As one of Jimmy's biggest fans, I find it a bit disrespectful to ask him to take less than he's worth. We didn't ask Deebo or Warner or Kittle or Trent Williams to take less than they're worth. We won't ask Bosa to take less than he's worth. All of those guys could have made half of what they're currently making and would still have been set for life, but we paid them what the market has dictated they're worth. Why should Jimmy be the one that has to sacrifice money to remain with the team? He has one of the highest QB ratings of all-time and one of the highest W/L ratios of all-time, but he should be paid less than Russel Wilson, Kyler Murray, or Deshaun Watson? Doesn't seem right. Other QBs have earned $100m+ before signing record breaking deals, so that shouldn't matter either.

It is up to Jimmy to decide which is of greater value to him; money or a ring.

If money is his greatest value, there are several teams, the Commanders being one of them, that could pay him $50M/yr with a hefty guarantee. The Texans are another.

If having a legit shot at a ring is his value, the 49ers can pay him $30M/yr and keep the core together in the process.

IMO, he will be disrespected much more if he chooses the top-of-the-market deal instead of a chance to help win a ring for his teammates.

The QB is the most important player on the team, hence draws the greatest percentage of the cap. Therefore, the values the QB holds will have the greatest impact on what the FO can afford to put around him to win games. If Jimmy chooses money, we will have to deal with a QB who is "learning on the job." If that QB fails, there will be a lot of players and fans that will be very upset at this playoff-level roster not meeting expectations. Pick your poison.
[ Edited by dj43 on Nov 25, 2022 at 1:19 PM ]
Originally posted by dj43:
It is up to Jimmy to decide which is of greater value to him; money or a ring.

If money is his greatest value, there are several teams, the Commanders being one of them, that could pay him $50M/yr with a hefty guarantee. The Texans are another.

If having a legit shot at a ring is his value, the 49ers can pay him $30M/yr and keep the core together in the process.

IMO, he will be disrespected much more if he chooses the top-of-the-market deal instead of a chance to help win a ring for his teammates.

The QB is the most important player on the team, hence draws the greatest percentage of the cap. Therefore, the values the QB holds will have the greatest impact on what the FO can put around to to win games. If Jimmy chooses money, we will have to deal with a QB who is "learning on the job." If that QB fails, there will be a lot of players and fans that will very upset at this playoff level roster not meeting expectations.

50 mil for Jimmy??? There is 0 chance of that happening. Even 30 is pushing it.
Originally posted by ritz126:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
I just figured if I'm going to bring up CAY/A having a slight positive correlation with winning, and INTs/game having a less than expected correlation with losing, that I ought to point out that TD% is one of the best indicators of winning quarterback play. And Jimmy through his career has usually done pretty good.

i mean TD% is obviously important but as a stat its kind of misleading what about if we run it in? that doesn't really come up as TD% but obviously TD% will correlate higher to winning because higher TD% = more points

what i look at is how the offense function
yards/play
points/drive

to me those two are the most important stats into how the QB and offense is functioning

One problem is that both of them are less dependent on the QB than TD%.

I'm too lazy right now to look at the correlation with win% with the two stats you mentioned, but two things are more important than TD% and are highly dependent on QB play: passes for first downs (1D%), and passes for first down on third down (3D%). And before you even ask, Jimmy usually does outstanding at both. Last year he was top 10 in both.

Moving the chains is, among all the things I've personally looked at statistically, the biggest indicator of whether or not a QB wins. My guess would be that red zone passing is way up there too, but those numbers aren't easily accessible so I don't bother with it.

But if you're wondering why Jimmy "just wins," a huge part of it is 1D% and 3D%.

Case in point:
https://www.ninersnation.com/platform/amp/2022/11/25/23476548/49ers-jimmy-garoppolo-third-downs

When the 49ers are winning, it's usually because Jimmy is magic on third down.
[ Edited by 5_Golden_Rings on Nov 25, 2022 at 1:41 PM ]
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by 49ers_Life:
Originally posted by dj43:
Good observation. Your point is at the heart of the story on Spotrac as to why Jimmy will accept a less-than-top-market deal to stay with the team next season.

By the end of this season, he will have been paid over $125,000,000 in his career. He is represented by a very good agent, the same one as Tom Brady, who has provided him with sound investment opportunities. Jimmy is already well-settled for the rest of his life. Hence, it is reasonable to expect JG to do the same as Brady, and take a lower salary in order to keep key players around him. What Jimmy wants, and what all of the Faithful want, is a ring. He will do his part to get it.

Ultimately, I believe it comes down to does Kyle and John want to install Jimmy as the Franchise QB again or not. Also wether Jimmy wants to be the guy. I believe if this happens, Trey is traded or he is Aaron Rodgers for the next 2-3 years. I think he would be traded personally.

In that case, the FO will attempt to recoup some of the draft capital it spent on TL. The question is; will any team see enough value in him to make an offer worth accepting? IMO, if the best offer is a 2nd round pick or less, Lance becomes Aaron Rodgers, Part II.

Lance would have too much dead money vs saving to make trading him worthwhile. He's on the team next year regardless of whether or not Jimmy proves Mexico wasn't a mirage.
  • Furlow
  • Veteran
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Originally posted by GoreGoreGore:
Originally posted by dj43:
It is up to Jimmy to decide which is of greater value to him; money or a ring.

If money is his greatest value, there are several teams, the Commanders being one of them, that could pay him $50M/yr with a hefty guarantee. The Texans are another.

If having a legit shot at a ring is his value, the 49ers can pay him $30M/yr and keep the core together in the process.

IMO, he will be disrespected much more if he chooses the top-of-the-market deal instead of a chance to help win a ring for his teammates.

The QB is the most important player on the team, hence draws the greatest percentage of the cap. Therefore, the values the QB holds will have the greatest impact on what the FO can put around to to win games. If Jimmy chooses money, we will have to deal with a QB who is "learning on the job." If that QB fails, there will be a lot of players and fans that will very upset at this playoff level roster not meeting expectations.

50 mil for Jimmy??? There is 0 chance of that happening. Even 30 is pushing it.

You are absolutely clueless about average salaries per year for QB's next year and beyond if you think $30m/year is "pushing it."
Originally posted by GoreGoreGore:
Originally posted by dj43:
It is up to Jimmy to decide which is of greater value to him; money or a ring.

If money is his greatest value, there are several teams, the Commanders being one of them, that could pay him $50M/yr with a hefty guarantee. The Texans are another.

If having a legit shot at a ring is his value, the 49ers can pay him $30M/yr and keep the core together in the process.

IMO, he will be disrespected much more if he chooses the top-of-the-market deal instead of a chance to help win a ring for his teammates.

The QB is the most important player on the team, hence draws the greatest percentage of the cap. Therefore, the values the QB holds will have the greatest impact on what the FO can put around him to win games. If Jimmy chooses money, we will have to deal with a QB who is "learning on the job." If that QB fails, there will be a lot of players and fans that will very upset at this playoff level roster not meeting expectations.

50 mil for Jimmy??? There is 0 chance of that happening. Even 30 is pushing it.
In context, I was responding to the suggestion that JG could get top money in a scenario where we win the Super Bowl and he continues to perform as he has the past three games. In such a case, there are teams that could pay him that much. He isn't worth that much, IMO, but I don't think Kyler Murray is worth that much either. Certainly Russel Wilson isn't earning his $49M/yr either.

However, JG is worth Derek Carr money and that is currently $40M/yr. For $30M/yr, you can get Matt Ryan or Ryan Tannehill.

The $30M/yr would be a slight raise from his prior contract, and with the huge increases in cap money coming in the next two years, $30M would be a bargain. Wait until next season when we see what Joe Burrow is going to get as he gets extended. $50M will be where the discussion starts for him.

Here is where I laid out how Spotrac sees it going. #137935

https://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/189603-qb-jimmy-garoppolo-thread/page9196/
[ Edited by dj43 on Nov 25, 2022 at 6:12 PM ]
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by ritz126:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
I just figured if I'm going to bring up CAY/A having a slight positive correlation with winning, and INTs/game having a less than expected correlation with losing, that I ought to point out that TD% is one of the best indicators of winning quarterback play. And Jimmy through his career has usually done pretty good.

i mean TD% is obviously important but as a stat its kind of misleading what about if we run it in? that doesn't really come up as TD% but obviously TD% will correlate higher to winning because higher TD% = more points

what i look at is how the offense function
yards/play
points/drive

to me those two are the most important stats into how the QB and offense is functioning

One problem is that both of them are less dependent on the QB than TD%.

I'm too lazy right now to look at the correlation with win% with the two stats you mentioned, but two things are more important than TD% and are highly dependent on QB play: passes for first downs (1D%), and passes for first down on third down (3D%). And before you even ask, Jimmy usually does outstanding at both. Last year he was top 10 in both.

Moving the chains is, among all the things I've personally looked at statistically, the biggest indicator of whether or not a QB wins. My guess would be that red zone passing is way up there too, but those numbers aren't easily accessible so I don't bother with it.

But if you're wondering why Jimmy "just wins," a huge part of it is 1D% and 3D%.

Case in point:
https://www.ninersnation.com/platform/amp/2022/11/25/23476548/49ers-jimmy-garoppolo-third-downs

When the 49ers are winning, it's usually because Jimmy is magic on third down.

Nice post.

Jimmy's 1st down% in his 1st 5 games before CMC was 35% with 1 game at 40%. The last 4 games with CMC, Jimmy is 45% and has only 1 game with a 1st down% below 48%.
  • Furlow
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 22,009
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by ritz126:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
I just figured if I'm going to bring up CAY/A having a slight positive correlation with winning, and INTs/game having a less than expected correlation with losing, that I ought to point out that TD% is one of the best indicators of winning quarterback play. And Jimmy through his career has usually done pretty good.

i mean TD% is obviously important but as a stat its kind of misleading what about if we run it in? that doesn't really come up as TD% but obviously TD% will correlate higher to winning because higher TD% = more points

what i look at is how the offense function
yards/play
points/drive

to me those two are the most important stats into how the QB and offense is functioning

One problem is that both of them are less dependent on the QB than TD%.

I'm too lazy right now to look at the correlation with win% with the two stats you mentioned, but two things are more important than TD% and are highly dependent on QB play: passes for first downs (1D%), and passes for first down on third down (3D%). And before you even ask, Jimmy usually does outstanding at both. Last year he was top 10 in both.

Moving the chains is, among all the things I've personally looked at statistically, the biggest indicator of whether or not a QB wins. My guess would be that red zone passing is way up there too, but those numbers aren't easily accessible so I don't bother with it.

But if you're wondering why Jimmy "just wins," a huge part of it is 1D% and 3D%.

Case in point:
https://www.ninersnation.com/platform/amp/2022/11/25/23476548/49ers-jimmy-garoppolo-third-downs

When the 49ers are winning, it's usually because Jimmy is magic on third down.

Nice post.

Jimmy's 1st down% in his 1st 5 games before CMC was 35% with 1 game at 40%. The last 4 games with CMC, Jimmy is 45% and has only 1 game with a 1st down% below 48%.

Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by GoreGoreGore:
Originally posted by dj43:
It is up to Jimmy to decide which is of greater value to him; money or a ring.

If money is his greatest value, there are several teams, the Commanders being one of them, that could pay him $50M/yr with a hefty guarantee. The Texans are another.

If having a legit shot at a ring is his value, the 49ers can pay him $30M/yr and keep the core together in the process.

IMO, he will be disrespected much more if he chooses the top-of-the-market deal instead of a chance to help win a ring for his teammates.

The QB is the most important player on the team, hence draws the greatest percentage of the cap. Therefore, the values the QB holds will have the greatest impact on what the FO can put around to to win games. If Jimmy chooses money, we will have to deal with a QB who is "learning on the job." If that QB fails, there will be a lot of players and fans that will very upset at this playoff level roster not meeting expectations.

50 mil for Jimmy??? There is 0 chance of that happening. Even 30 is pushing it.

You are absolutely clueless about average salaries per year for QB's next year and beyond if you think $30m/year is "pushing it."

Go easy...
  • Furlow
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 22,009
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by GoreGoreGore:
Originally posted by dj43:
It is up to Jimmy to decide which is of greater value to him; money or a ring.

If money is his greatest value, there are several teams, the Commanders being one of them, that could pay him $50M/yr with a hefty guarantee. The Texans are another.

If having a legit shot at a ring is his value, the 49ers can pay him $30M/yr and keep the core together in the process.

IMO, he will be disrespected much more if he chooses the top-of-the-market deal instead of a chance to help win a ring for his teammates.

The QB is the most important player on the team, hence draws the greatest percentage of the cap. Therefore, the values the QB holds will have the greatest impact on what the FO can put around to to win games. If Jimmy chooses money, we will have to deal with a QB who is "learning on the job." If that QB fails, there will be a lot of players and fans that will very upset at this playoff level roster not meeting expectations.

50 mil for Jimmy??? There is 0 chance of that happening. Even 30 is pushing it.

You are absolutely clueless about average salaries per year for QB's next year and beyond if you think $30m/year is "pushing it."

Go easy...

You're right. 👍🏼
Originally posted by NYniner85:
5th highest passer rating in NFL history 👀

at some point you gotta say good job. He certainly doesn't stink and is a starting NFL QB. Dude will end up making well over $200M by the end of his career. That's nothing to sneeze at.
Yeah. Liking that jimmy finally taking the wheel on this bus, But that elephant in the room is still there just waiting for us

we can't afford to waste years with this team
[ Edited by 49AllTheTime on Nov 25, 2022 at 9:54 PM ]
  • Furlow
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 22,009
Originally posted by dj43:
In context, I was responding to the suggestion that JG could get top money in a scenario where we win the Super Bowl and he continues to perform as he has the past three games. In such a case, there are teams that could pay him that much. He isn't worth that much, IMO, but I don't think Kyler Murray is worth that much either. Certainly Russel Wilson isn't earning his $49M/yr either.

However, JG is worth Derek Carr money and that is currently $40M/yr. For $30M/yr, you can get Matt Ryan or Ryan Tannehill.

The $30M/yr would be a slight raise from his prior contract, and with the huge increases in cap money coming in the next two years, $30M would be a bargain. Wait until next season when we see what Joe Burrow is going to get as he gets extended. $50M will be where the discussion starts for him.

Here is where I laid out how Spotrac sees it going. #137935

https://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/189603-qb-jimmy-garoppolo-thread/page9196/

I would be ecstatic if JG played himself into a $60M+ contract. The NFC is ripe for the taking. I don't see a Super Bowl happening, but get there and worry about that Sunday, February 12th.

My concern, second only to injury, is JG's consistent inconsistency. Hell, be inconsistent through week 17, and then be consistent for four games. I'll take that
Originally posted by random49er:
Uhmmm,...ok. I notice you were noncommital on the question of should it always be completely ignored or not,...so good dodge.

Since there's this suddenly weird fear of facts and how far QBs throw on a football forum of all places.....let's add some more, shall we?

Jimmy went 20 for 29,.....thought it'd be interesting to highlight comparison games since Kyler Murray went 20 for 29 earlier this year as well vs. our next opponent.... and Nick Mullens did as well in this offense in 2018.

It's pretty cool numbers-wise because you can compare all of their makes and their misses evenly.

So some side-by-side looks @ the attacked and successful areas highlighting true depth of targets ...




Weird doc I'm seeing tonight.

Sorry to whomever saw these chart comparisons as a personal attack.
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