Originally posted by Polkadots:
If KS truly wanted JG all along, why wait? The only argument is that the cost was too high this past off season. But, that doesn't hold water, because the worth of a true FQB is beyond cost consideration - almost. The risk analysis for this given choice would not be tenable for anyone whose job was riding on the outcome - and it is fair to say two people's jobs are riding on JG being the one.
What if Brady had gotten hurt this year? The entire plan to get JG is now ruined, and no good business person would risk their entity's future on something that has a fairly high probability of happening - relatively speaking.
So the counter to a ruined plan is what? That Cousins was the next best bet, and you would simply take him if the JG thing did not work? Why? Why would you take someone you valued less? If KS truly thought JG was the better prospect, it is fair to assume he had no plans to go after KC in the off season. His plan, if he had not gotten JG now, would have been to go after JG in the off season - logically speaking.
If you are the Patriots, why get rid of JG if, after all these years of grooming and watching him play, you felt he was worthwhile to your franchise? Clearly the organization, coaching staff, and Brady have enough rapport and respect for each other that Brady's future was promulgated to all who needed to know well before this season began. So, you're telling me they didn't pull the trigger and trade JG this off season? Why? "According to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, the Browns offered a second round pick and change to the Patriots this off season and nothing more. They did not go higher than a second and offer a first rounder." So, the Patriots felt they could get at least a second round pick by waiting. Thus, it was a no lose situation for them. They knew, absolutely, who was interested in JG and what they could get for him. They must have known what the 49ers would give up for him, but they also must have known that by waiting JG's stock could only go up. Hoyer was not going to be the answer, and the chances Beathard was going to be the answer were sufficiently small that the potential risk was far outweighed by the potential benefit(s).
As for cost, JG just guaranteed he will get paid more now than he would have by simply riding out the season on the bench. If he does well, he will get paid at least what KC gets paid, and may be in position to hold it over the 49ers for a contract larger than that of what would have been given to KC. If he does poorly, he will still get a massive amount of money, because I don't think any expert expects him to do a whole lot with what the 49ers have on offense. Plus, when the 49ers gave up a second round pick, they hitched themselves to JG, to where now, they have zero leverage. Absolutely none.
The 49ers gave up a second round pick for someone who was absolutely going to be available come this off season. And, he was absolutely going to cost less this off season than he will now that this trade has occurred - assuming he stayed on the bench in New England. Further, he was not brought in to resurrect this season, so yeah, from a business and logical standpoint, this trade simply does not make sense.
I get it, emotionally, it is awesome. I, like the rest of you, hope JG turns out to be a franchise QB. That being said, no matter how you slice this, the way the 49ers went about this was not business savvy. They could have gotten him for less, and may now find themselves in a serious predicament if JG plays exceptionally well for the remainder of the season...or if he gets hurt behind that porous offensive line.
I don't like this move (today) at all. I hope, truly, to eat my words sometime in the future...the near future.
I think you're trying a bit too hard.
- Kirk Cousins MAY be available in the off season (what if the Redskins work out a deal or franchise tag him again?)
- Kyle has reviewed the 2018 QB draft class and isn't fond of the class esp. for a top 5 pick (again)
- Jimmy Garropplo MAY be available in the off season (but if he is, expect a HUGE bidding war b/c of #1 and #2)
If you are ShanaLynch, you make it known you are interested in a trade for JG and that's exactly what they did. The Pats tried to give JG a starters contract to sit for as long as Brady wanted to play (which would have strapped their entire 53 man roster). They drafted him with the sole intention of him one day, taking over for Brady. When they couldn't get a deal b/c JG wanted to actually play, THEY called the 49ers FO and worked the trade.
Bottom line: the 49ers FO quite simply got THE BEST QB OPTION on the market for 2018 and got him early and have now secured his rights through 2018 (at bare minimum). One way or another, he'll be a Niner for all of 2018.
QB, far and away, is the single most difficult position to secure.
Is it possible a team uses a top 5 first round pick on a QB and he becomes a true FQB well and they score big with their second pick as well? Sure. But what's the probability of that?
We still have 5 picks (including a mid-to-back end 2nd) in the first 4 rounds and now we have the ammunition to go any direction we need with our first pick. In fact, we could always trade up higher in the second too if that's your concern here.
Simply ask yourself, where would JG fall within this draft class today. If he was originally a Pats 2nd rounder and is now more polished and developed, he'd simply be the first pick in the draft. We're talking Andrew Luck-like consensus because of his skill set AND because he's so polished. Outside of potentially, Kirk Cousins, there is no QB on the market (draft or FA) that fits that bill. Period.
ShanaLynch just secured THE best QB option possible for 2018. If you can't grasp that then
[ Edited by NCommand on Oct 31, 2017 at 7:53 AM ]
