Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by thl408:
f**k the Raiders. My Raider buddies feel so stupid after all the crap they talked about Jimmy when he was a 49er. I hope he stinks it up in LV. No, I don't hate Jimmy, I hate the Raiders.

He could play well and they could still be terrible. That defense needs a lot of work.

Raiders had a -8 turnover ratio and average TOP of 30:10 per game. I'd imagine Jimmy gives a bump to both of those, which will help the defense. Their defense was 19th in rushing yards per game allowed and 29th in passing yards per game allowed. 30th in sacks. 26th in 3rd down percentage/stops.

Well, that completely depends on a few things.

1) was 2022 an aberration in terms of him not throwing many interceptions, or has he improved to the point where he IS 2022 Jimmy and not 2017-2021 Jimmy?

2) is Jimmy's 3rd down conversion rate a reflection of Jimmy or Kyle? Remember, Nick Mullens and all the terrible QBs we have had have all had good 3rd down conversion percentages for us. Jimmy's was better than Mullens, Beathard, etc., but not by as wide a margin as you would assume based on the talent gap between them.

Time will tell.

Even in years where Jimmy had more turnovers than 2022, he still affected our TOP which helped the defense.

CJ Beathard's passer rating on 3rd down in 2017 was 78.1.
Nick Mullens passer rating on 3rd down in 2018 was 74.1.
Jimmy's passer rating on 3rd down in 2019 was 101.9. In 2021 it was 96.3. In 2022 it was 112.8.

Jimmy was also good in 2017, not so much in 2018 nor 2020. Didn't add those because the sample size is pretty small. But to say that Jimmy wasn't much better than Beathard or Mullens on 3rd down is false. He was, and it made a huge difference. Will he continue that with the Raiders? We'll see. What we do have are some baselines for the Raiders defense before Jimmy became the starter, so it will be fun to compare.

I know Jimmy affected TOP in a positive way even in the years with more turnovers. Thats why I tried to separate the two things in my post.

I am not concerned with passer rating, I am concerned with 3rd down conversions. I bet you if you find those stats you will be surprised at how close they are compared to how not close the passer rating stats are.

In 2019, Jimmy was #1 in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate (50%) - https://clutchpoints.com/49ers-news-jimmy-garoppolo-led-all-nfl-qbs-on-3rd-conversions-this-season

Last year he converted at 51% through week 12 (latest article I could find on it) - https://www.ninersnation.com/2022/11/25/23476548/49ers-jimmy-garoppolo-third-downs

Call me crazy but I'm pretty sure neither Mullens nor Beathard were anywhere close to that type of production on 3rd down.

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by thl408:
f**k the Raiders. My Raider buddies feel so stupid after all the crap they talked about Jimmy when he was a 49er. I hope he stinks it up in LV. No, I don't hate Jimmy, I hate the Raiders.

He could play well and they could still be terrible. That defense needs a lot of work.

Raiders had a -8 turnover ratio and average TOP of 30:10 per game. I'd imagine Jimmy gives a bump to both of those, which will help the defense. Their defense was 19th in rushing yards per game allowed and 29th in passing yards per game allowed. 30th in sacks. 26th in 3rd down percentage/stops.

Well, that completely depends on a few things.

1) was 2022 an aberration in terms of him not throwing many interceptions, or has he improved to the point where he IS 2022 Jimmy and not 2017-2021 Jimmy?

2) is Jimmy's 3rd down conversion rate a reflection of Jimmy or Kyle? Remember, Nick Mullens and all the terrible QBs we have had have all had good 3rd down conversion percentages for us. Jimmy's was better than Mullens, Beathard, etc., but not by as wide a margin as you would assume based on the talent gap between them.

Time will tell.

Even in years where Jimmy had more turnovers than 2022, he still affected our TOP which helped the defense.

CJ Beathard's passer rating on 3rd down in 2017 was 78.1.
Nick Mullens passer rating on 3rd down in 2018 was 74.1.
Jimmy's passer rating on 3rd down in 2019 was 101.9. In 2021 it was 96.3. In 2022 it was 112.8.

Jimmy was also good in 2017, not so much in 2018 nor 2020. Didn't add those because the sample size is pretty small. But to say that Jimmy wasn't much better than Beathard or Mullens on 3rd down is false. He was, and it made a huge difference. Will he continue that with the Raiders? We'll see. What we do have are some baselines for the Raiders defense before Jimmy became the starter, so it will be fun to compare.

I know Jimmy affected TOP in a positive way even in the years with more turnovers. Thats why I tried to separate the two things in my post.

I am not concerned with passer rating, I am concerned with 3rd down conversions. I bet you if you find those stats you will be surprised at how close they are compared to how not close the passer rating stats are.

In 2019, Jimmy was #1 in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate (50%) - https://clutchpoints.com/49ers-news-jimmy-garoppolo-led-all-nfl-qbs-on-3rd-conversions-this-season

Last year he converted at 51% through week 12 (latest article I could find on it) - https://www.ninersnation.com/2022/11/25/23476548/49ers-jimmy-garoppolo-third-downs

Call me crazy but I'm pretty sure neither Mullens nor Beathard were anywhere close to that type of production on 3rd down.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2020?sort=passfd

2020:
Nick Mullens was at 40%.
CJ Beathard was at 38%
Jimmy G was at 42%

This was from the same season, so it was a fairly even playing field for all 3 QBs. Like I said, yes, Jimmy was better than the other guys. But considering how much better of a QB he is than them, one would assume he should be MUCH better than them at converting 3rd downs. He wasnt.

Originally posted by Furlow:
If they get worse in most or all of the below, and Jimmy plays, yes I'd put that on Jimmy.

Raiders had a -8 turnover ratio and average TOP of 30:10 per game. Their defense was 19th in rushing yards per game allowed and 29th in passing yards per game allowed. 30th in sacks. 26th in 3rd down percentage/stops.

That makes zero sense to me.

So if Jimmy plays more in 2018 the 9ers don't set the record for fewest turnovers forced ever?

The Eagles had the ball 35 minutes in the SB.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by thl408:
f**k the Raiders. My Raider buddies feel so stupid after all the crap they talked about Jimmy when he was a 49er. I hope he stinks it up in LV. No, I don't hate Jimmy, I hate the Raiders.

He could play well and they could still be terrible. That defense needs a lot of work.

Raiders had a -8 turnover ratio and average TOP of 30:10 per game. I'd imagine Jimmy gives a bump to both of those, which will help the defense. Their defense was 19th in rushing yards per game allowed and 29th in passing yards per game allowed. 30th in sacks. 26th in 3rd down percentage/stops.

Well, that completely depends on a few things.

1) was 2022 an aberration in terms of him not throwing many interceptions, or has he improved to the point where he IS 2022 Jimmy and not 2017-2021 Jimmy?

2) is Jimmy's 3rd down conversion rate a reflection of Jimmy or Kyle? Remember, Nick Mullens and all the terrible QBs we have had have all had good 3rd down conversion percentages for us. Jimmy's was better than Mullens, Beathard, etc., but not by as wide a margin as you would assume based on the talent gap between them.

Time will tell.

Even in years where Jimmy had more turnovers than 2022, he still affected our TOP which helped the defense.

CJ Beathard's passer rating on 3rd down in 2017 was 78.1.
Nick Mullens passer rating on 3rd down in 2018 was 74.1.
Jimmy's passer rating on 3rd down in 2019 was 101.9. In 2021 it was 96.3. In 2022 it was 112.8.

Jimmy was also good in 2017, not so much in 2018 nor 2020. Didn't add those because the sample size is pretty small. But to say that Jimmy wasn't much better than Beathard or Mullens on 3rd down is false. He was, and it made a huge difference. Will he continue that with the Raiders? We'll see. What we do have are some baselines for the Raiders defense before Jimmy became the starter, so it will be fun to compare.

I know Jimmy affected TOP in a positive way even in the years with more turnovers. Thats why I tried to separate the two things in my post.

I am not concerned with passer rating, I am concerned with 3rd down conversions. I bet you if you find those stats you will be surprised at how close they are compared to how not close the passer rating stats are.

In 2019, Jimmy was #1 in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate (50%) - https://clutchpoints.com/49ers-news-jimmy-garoppolo-led-all-nfl-qbs-on-3rd-conversions-this-season

Last year he converted at 51% through week 12 (latest article I could find on it) - https://www.ninersnation.com/2022/11/25/23476548/49ers-jimmy-garoppolo-third-downs

Call me crazy but I'm pretty sure neither Mullens nor Beathard were anywhere close to that type of production on 3rd down.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2020?sort=passfd

2020:
Nick Mullens was at 40%.
CJ Beathard was at 38%
Jimmy G was at 42%

This was from the same season, so it was a fairly even playing field for all 3 QBs. Like I said, yes, Jimmy was better than the other guys. But considering how much better of a QB he is than them, one would assume he should be MUCH better than them at converting 3rd downs. He wasnt.

So you think that cherry picking 2020, a season in which Jimmy played multiple games with a high ankle sprain only to end up missing the rest of the season due to that injury getting worse - counters the rest of those seasons? All with better passer rating and significantly higher 3rd down conversion rate?

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by Furlow:
If they get worse in most or all of the below, and Jimmy plays, yes I'd put that on Jimmy.

Raiders had a -8 turnover ratio and average TOP of 30:10 per game. Their defense was 19th in rushing yards per game allowed and 29th in passing yards per game allowed. 30th in sacks. 26th in 3rd down percentage/stops.

That makes zero sense to me.

So if Jimmy plays more in 2018 the 9ers don't set the record for fewest turnovers forced ever?

The Eagles had the ball 35 minutes in the SB.

In general, defenses that are on the field a lot are tired and don't make as many plays nor force as many turnovers. Does that make sense to you?

Originally posted by Furlow:
In general, defenses that are on the field a lot are tired and don't make as many plays nor force as many turnovers. Does that make sense to you?

The 9ers time of possession stats in 2018 was 29:38

2019 it was 31:25

That was the catalyst for the defensive improvement in your mind? Less than 2 minutes per game? Not Bosa or the talent they acquired in the offseason?

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by Furlow:
If they get worse in most or all of the below, and Jimmy plays, yes I'd put that on Jimmy.

Raiders had a -8 turnover ratio and average TOP of 30:10 per game. Their defense was 19th in rushing yards per game allowed and 29th in passing yards per game allowed. 30th in sacks. 26th in 3rd down percentage/stops.

That makes zero sense to me.

So if Jimmy plays more in 2018 the 9ers don't set the record for fewest turnovers forced ever?

The Eagles had the ball 35 minutes in the SB.

In general, defenses that are on the field a lot are tired and don't make as many plays nor force as many turnovers. Does that make sense to you?

How many spots higher would you guess that our defenses' ranked at the end of the year due to Jimmy?

Jimmy is a good qb. Get over it. Is he great? No, unfortunately.. best damn qb we had in a long long time. Wish he didn't have the short comings he did, but he does. Still a very good qb. Go Jimmy! You'll do just fine!

Originally posted by random49er:
How many spots higher would you guess that our defenses' ranked at the end of the year due to Jimmy?

Quite a bit. See game 1 of 2022 season. Lol your qb sucks and does nothing, your defense wears down.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by Furlow:
In general, defenses that are on the field a lot are tired and don't make as many plays nor force as many turnovers. Does that make sense to you?

The 9ers time of possession stats in 2018 was 29:38

2019 it was 31:25

That was the catalyst for the defensive improvement in your mind? Less than 2 minutes per game? Not Bosa or the talent they acquired in the offseason?

I don't recall who we added on defense other than Bosa in 2019, but I'd say that a 2 minute swing in TOP is a huge difference and certainly helped the defense. Just look at TOP rankings for any season, the difference between the best and worse is "only" 3-4 minutes. Of course we're talking about 3-4 minutes of NFL game play, where every play is damn near the equivalent of a car crash. So yeah, each minute makes a difference.

But let's just take 2017 for example, since there were no personnel changes pre/post Jimmy:

Defense was giving up 25.8 PPG before Jimmy became the starter; 19.8 PPG once Jimmy became starter.

Average TOP was 27:31 before Jimmy became starter; 32:54 once Jimmy became the starter.

You're fooling yourself if you think Jimmie's efficiency didn't impact the defense in a positive way. Get over it

was he great? No. Boo hoo. Damn good though

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by Furlow:
If they get worse in most or all of the below, and Jimmy plays, yes I'd put that on Jimmy.

Raiders had a -8 turnover ratio and average TOP of 30:10 per game. Their defense was 19th in rushing yards per game allowed and 29th in passing yards per game allowed. 30th in sacks. 26th in 3rd down percentage/stops.

That makes zero sense to me.

So if Jimmy plays more in 2018 the 9ers don't set the record for fewest turnovers forced ever?

The Eagles had the ball 35 minutes in the SB.

In general, defenses that are on the field a lot are tired and don't make as many plays nor force as many turnovers. Does that make sense to you?

How many spots higher would you guess that our defenses' ranked at the end of the year due to Jimmy?

8-10.

You ever going to answer my question earlier about what you think Jimmy's contract/salary would have been this off season had he not had all of the injuries, or just keep hiding?

Originally posted by tankle104:
You're fooling yourself if you think Jimmie's efficiency didn't impact the defense in a positive way. Get over it

was he great? No. Boo hoo. Damn good though

Never said he didn't have an impact. Furlow is crediting it ALL to Jimmy. If the Raiders improve defensively it will single handindly be Jimmy's impact.

It's utter nonsense.

10 minute advantage in TOP in Superbowl. Guess.the Chiefs D could withstand car crashes better.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by tankle104:
You're fooling yourself if you think Jimmie's efficiency didn't impact the defense in a positive way. Get over it

was he great? No. Boo hoo. Damn good though

Never said he didn't have an impact. Furlow is crediting it ALL to Jimmy.

This isn't directed at anyone but in general - all three phases depend on each other. Each one's performance benefits the other.

Jimmy definitely put our defense in a position to be better because of the offenses Efficiency. He may not of been a great deep threat etc, but he was very good at certain things.