Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by thl408:
f**k the Raiders. My Raider buddies feel so stupid after all the crap they talked about Jimmy when he was a 49er. I hope he stinks it up in LV. No, I don't hate Jimmy, I hate the Raiders.
He could play well and they could still be terrible. That defense needs a lot of work.
Raiders had a -8 turnover ratio and average TOP of 30:10 per game. I'd imagine Jimmy gives a bump to both of those, which will help the defense. Their defense was 19th in rushing yards per game allowed and 29th in passing yards per game allowed. 30th in sacks. 26th in 3rd down percentage/stops.
Well, that completely depends on a few things.
1) was 2022 an aberration in terms of him not throwing many interceptions, or has he improved to the point where he IS 2022 Jimmy and not 2017-2021 Jimmy?
2) is Jimmy's 3rd down conversion rate a reflection of Jimmy or Kyle? Remember, Nick Mullens and all the terrible QBs we have had have all had good 3rd down conversion percentages for us. Jimmy's was better than Mullens, Beathard, etc., but not by as wide a margin as you would assume based on the talent gap between them.
Time will tell.
Even in years where Jimmy had more turnovers than 2022, he still affected our TOP which helped the defense.
CJ Beathard's passer rating on 3rd down in 2017 was 78.1.
Nick Mullens passer rating on 3rd down in 2018 was 74.1.
Jimmy's passer rating on 3rd down in 2019 was 101.9. In 2021 it was 96.3. In 2022 it was 112.8.
Jimmy was also good in 2017, not so much in 2018 nor 2020. Didn't add those because the sample size is pretty small. But to say that Jimmy wasn't much better than Beathard or Mullens on 3rd down is false. He was, and it made a huge difference. Will he continue that with the Raiders? We'll see. What we do have are some baselines for the Raiders defense before Jimmy became the starter, so it will be fun to compare.
I know Jimmy affected TOP in a positive way even in the years with more turnovers. Thats why I tried to separate the two things in my post.
I am not concerned with passer rating, I am concerned with 3rd down conversions. I bet you if you find those stats you will be surprised at how close they are compared to how not close the passer rating stats are.
In 2019, Jimmy was #1 in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate (50%) - https://clutchpoints.com/49ers-news-jimmy-garoppolo-led-all-nfl-qbs-on-3rd-conversions-this-season
Last year he converted at 51% through week 12 (latest article I could find on it) - https://www.ninersnation.com/2022/11/25/23476548/49ers-jimmy-garoppolo-third-downs
Call me crazy but I'm pretty sure neither Mullens nor Beathard were anywhere close to that type of production on 3rd down.
https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2020?sort=passfd
2020:
Nick Mullens was at 40%.
CJ Beathard was at 38%
Jimmy G was at 42%
This was from the same season, so it was a fairly even playing field for all 3 QBs. Like I said, yes, Jimmy was better than the other guys. But considering how much better of a QB he is than them, one would assume he should be MUCH better than them at converting 3rd downs. He wasnt.
So you think that cherry picking 2020, a season in which Jimmy played multiple games with a high ankle sprain only to end up missing the rest of the season due to that injury getting worse - counters the rest of those seasons? All with better passer rating and significantly higher 3rd down conversion rate?
LOL at cherry picking. Figured you would have some issue with the stats. Comparing the season where they all played with the same roster seems like a pretty good comparison to me.
You dont like it? Fine. Jimmy leading the league at 50% in 2019, was only 10% better than Nick Mullens (a vastly inferior quarterback) in 2020. While Jimmy was the top guy in the league in 2019, Mullens was a middle of the pack QB in 2020. That isnt telling to you?
Since Mullens is a QB2 at best (but realistically a QB3), it is completely logical to say that Kyle Shanahan had a massive impact on Mullens success on third down. And to a slightly lesser extent, that applies to CJ Beathard as well. It would be disingenuous to believe that Kyle is the reason why those two had decent success on third down, but that he isnt A reason why Jimmy has really good success on third down.