Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:
The "BS" I'm referring to is taking a comment from me which was attributing a defense's improvement due "solely" to Jimmy G becoming the starter, and creating a strawman argument that Jimmy "did it by himself." Implying that the defensive players didn't even need to line up, didn't actually make any tackles, didn't actually get any sacks or interceptions. It's simply an intellectually dishonest way of arguing. Do I really have to qualify my statement with "well the defensive players did run out there on defense and make tackles, so they deserve credit?" That is an OBVIOUS truth and one that does not need to be stated. We are all adults here and don't need that type of coddling.

My point was that in 2017, the defensive performance going from bottom 5 to top 5 was due to Jimmy becoming the starter. No other variables changed, none. So Jimmy's play at QB was the difference. Now, did WR's have to catch the ball? Yes. Did Kyle have to call plays? Yes. Did the defense have to make tackles, get sacks, and intercept passes? Yes. But those variables existed BEFORE Jimmy became the starter. So it's not necessary to repeat that those variables also existed after he became the starter.

This "BS" is why this thread is so damn long. Because anytime someone has anything positive to say about Jimmy's contributions, we have to have pages and pages of philosophical discussion about every minute detail. I mean random still can't admit that W/L record is a QB stat, even though it's recorded in the NFL record book lol.

I just reread every single post I made to you since the topic came up and not once did I do what you are claiming in the bolded. In fact I even agreed with you. Ironic that you complain about strawmanning.

With you it wasn't the players. You wanted to give credit to Kyle instead of Jimmy, and you used Mullens and Beathard as your "proof." You literally said that Jimmy "was only 10% better than Mullens" at converting 3rd downs. Jimmy at 50% compared to Mullens at 40% is a tremendous difference, and you tried to minimize it and give the credit to Kyle. Again, anything positive said about Jimmy is met with resistance by the loud minority.

No. I only compared the the 40% and 50% thing after you made excuses why the 2020 stats I brought up werent valid. My main argument was about 2020, and only shifted once you dismissed factual evidence and made excuses.

The stats were "valid." But you picked the season where Jimmy was playing with a high ankle sprain and eventually was out for the season. So was that intentional on your part to skew the stats in favor of your argument, or did you forget he was playing injured for those 6 games? And assuming you just forgot, how does that one season negate all of the other seasons where Jimmy was clearly head and shoulders better than any other Niners QB during his time here (besides Purdy)?

I picked the season where 3 quarterbacks played with the same roster. It was an attempt to minimize needing a ton of extra context, and provide stats played in similar situations.

There was nothing intentional to skew the stats, and you thinking that just proves you cannot be unbiased about the conversation. That absolutely wasnt the intention.

One season doesnt "negate" the other seasons. But every season is different, for obvious reasons. Comparing Jimmy in 2022 and Brian Hoyer in 2017 tells you what exactly? Comparing Jimmy in 2017 and Hoyer in 2017 should tell you much more...the results of that should be obvious.

What is interesting is that Purdy and Jimmy converted 3rd downs at same rate (48.2% for Jimmy and 47.9% for Purdy).

Comparing within the same season makes sense IF the other variables are the same or similar. Hence why I keep going back to 2017 to compare the defense before/after Jimmy. But the variables for 2020 are NOT the same because Jimmy was playing with a high ankle sprain and clearly in a ton of pain. It just so happened to be his worst year at converting 3rd downs. Hmm I wonder why you picked that year?

Using Jimmy's overall stats on 3rd down over the course of his time here creates a clear picture of his ability to convert 3rd downs. YOU moved the conversation to that data point. I said he was good on 3rd downs and used passer rating to show that. You said you don't care about passer rating, you only care about 3rd down conversions. So I showed that Jimmy converted on 3rd down at far higher rates than any other Niners QB (besides Purdy) during his time here. You decided to pick the one season where he only played 6 games and was injured.

And you accuse me of being biased??

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Other than when trying to run out a game what offense is gonna say f**k this big play td we need to stay on field 10 minutes and hope another td opportunity arises?

Best way to help a defense is score touchdowns. Period.

In 2017, other than Jimmy G becoming the starter, what variables changed to make these defensive improvements happen?

Defense was giving up 25.8 PPG before Jimmy became the starter; 19.8 PPG once Jimmy became starter.
Average TOP was 27:31 before Jimmy became starter; 32:54 once Jimmy became the starter.

Originally posted by Furlow:
In 2017, other than Jimmy G becoming the starter, what variables changed to make these defensive improvements happen?

Defense was giving up 25.8 PPG before Jimmy became the starter; 19.8 PPG once Jimmy became starter.
Average TOP was 27:31 before Jimmy became starter; 32:54 once Jimmy became the starter.

The opponents level of execution. The 9ers defenders execution. Circumstances of the game. Players returning to health. All sorts of variables contribute.

To say the defenders contributed nothing to the turnaround is ridiculous.

Thank you, Jimmy for leading our team to becoming a contender again. Except for the seasons where you're mostly injured, our team produced winning seasons including a Super Bowl appearance and 3 NFC championships after almost a decade of dormant and frustrating experience for us fans. Good luck and good health with the Raiders.

Originally posted by Furlow:
I never argued the bolded. Strawman.

And I never argued that a 2 min td drive was better than a 10 min one.

Offense needs to score TDs to help the D. However that's accomplished. That's why KC can succeed despite some weaknesses on D.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
Ok well I am saying it. It has nothing to do with being a strawman. Your point that a 1 play touchdown drive helps the defense less than a 10 minute touchdown drive is a silly point to make because its common sense...which again, no one was arguing against. You are all over the place here. Your original point was about TOP helping the defense, to which he replied touchdowns help more. Then you attempted to combine the two points as if that somehow was a good rebuttal to his argument.

It would be interesting to see if there is any data on this. What is more important to a defense, points or rest. Because the original argument was TOP vs. TDs....and YOU made it something different.

Its comical that you are claiming we are using strawmans, when that literally is exactly what you are doing.

Me not wanting to give Jimmy ALL the credit for the 2017 season turnaround is somehow me giving him none of it.

He was absolutely the biggest factor. But it wasn't ALL him. It's never ALL one player.

It also won't be ALL Jimmy whether the Raiders succeed or fail. Terrible back 7 will make things difficult unless they address it meaningfully.

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:
The "BS" I'm referring to is taking a comment from me which was attributing a defense's improvement due "solely" to Jimmy G becoming the starter, and creating a strawman argument that Jimmy "did it by himself." Implying that the defensive players didn't even need to line up, didn't actually make any tackles, didn't actually get any sacks or interceptions. It's simply an intellectually dishonest way of arguing. Do I really have to qualify my statement with "well the defensive players did run out there on defense and make tackles, so they deserve credit?" That is an OBVIOUS truth and one that does not need to be stated. We are all adults here and don't need that type of coddling.

My point was that in 2017, the defensive performance going from bottom 5 to top 5 was due to Jimmy becoming the starter. No other variables changed, none. So Jimmy's play at QB was the difference. Now, did WR's have to catch the ball? Yes. Did Kyle have to call plays? Yes. Did the defense have to make tackles, get sacks, and intercept passes? Yes. But those variables existed BEFORE Jimmy became the starter. So it's not necessary to repeat that those variables also existed after he became the starter.

This "BS" is why this thread is so damn long. Because anytime someone has anything positive to say about Jimmy's contributions, we have to have pages and pages of philosophical discussion about every minute detail. I mean random still can't admit that W/L record is a QB stat, even though it's recorded in the NFL record book lol.

I just reread every single post I made to you since the topic came up and not once did I do what you are claiming in the bolded. In fact I even agreed with you. Ironic that you complain about strawmanning.

With you it wasn't the players. You wanted to give credit to Kyle instead of Jimmy, and you used Mullens and Beathard as your "proof." You literally said that Jimmy "was only 10% better than Mullens" at converting 3rd downs. Jimmy at 50% compared to Mullens at 40% is a tremendous difference, and you tried to minimize it and give the credit to Kyle. Again, anything positive said about Jimmy is met with resistance by the loud minority.

No. I only compared the the 40% and 50% thing after you made excuses why the 2020 stats I brought up werent valid. My main argument was about 2020, and only shifted once you dismissed factual evidence and made excuses.

The stats were "valid." But you picked the season where Jimmy was playing with a high ankle sprain and eventually was out for the season. So was that intentional on your part to skew the stats in favor of your argument, or did you forget he was playing injured for those 6 games? And assuming you just forgot, how does that one season negate all of the other seasons where Jimmy was clearly head and shoulders better than any other Niners QB during his time here (besides Purdy)?

I picked the season where 3 quarterbacks played with the same roster. It was an attempt to minimize needing a ton of extra context, and provide stats played in similar situations.

There was nothing intentional to skew the stats, and you thinking that just proves you cannot be unbiased about the conversation. That absolutely wasnt the intention.

One season doesnt "negate" the other seasons. But every season is different, for obvious reasons. Comparing Jimmy in 2022 and Brian Hoyer in 2017 tells you what exactly? Comparing Jimmy in 2017 and Hoyer in 2017 should tell you much more...the results of that should be obvious.

What is interesting is that Purdy and Jimmy converted 3rd downs at same rate (48.2% for Jimmy and 47.9% for Purdy).

Comparing within the same season makes sense IF the other variables are the same or similar. Hence why I keep going back to 2017 to compare the defense before/after Jimmy. But the variables for 2020 are NOT the same because Jimmy was playing with a high ankle sprain and clearly in a ton of pain. It just so happened to be his worst year at converting 3rd downs. Hmm I wonder why you picked that year?

Using Jimmy's overall stats on 3rd down over the course of his time here creates a clear picture of his ability to convert 3rd downs. YOU moved the conversation to that data point. I said he was good on 3rd downs and used passer rating to show that. You said you don't care about passer rating, you only care about 3rd down conversions. So I showed that Jimmy converted on 3rd down at far higher rates than any other Niners QB (besides Purdy) during his time here. You decided to pick the one season where he only played 6 games and was injured.

And you accuse me of being biased??

I already explained to you why I picked that year. If you would like me to explain it again, will you promise to read it this time?

We all know Jimmy was successful at converting 3rd downs here. That was never argued against. But what I was saying is that Nick Mullens was successful too. And he is no where close to as good a QB as Jimmy is. That was my point. So logic tells me that other factors go into the fact that a borderline terrible QB in Mullens was more successful at converting 3rd downs than teams with actual starting QBs. Why is this difficult for you to grasp?

2019: 50%
2020: 42%
2021: 45%
2022: 48%

Just to make sure you remember I said it, yes, that is good.

And for the record, the ORIGINAL comment that sparked this debate was you saying that Jimmy is going to give the Raiders a bump in terms of TOP. And I posed the question was Jimmy the one responsible for our good 3rd down conversion rate or was it Kyle....and stated that time will tell. That's what started all of this.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by Furlow:
I never argued the bolded. Strawman.

And I never argued that a 2 min td drive was better than a 10 min one.

Offense needs to score TDs to help the D. However that's accomplished. That's why KC can succeed despite some weaknesses on D.

I didn't say that you said the bolded, so another strawman.

You said all that matters is scoring touchdowns, no matter how long it takes. I disagree.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:
The "BS" I'm referring to is taking a comment from me which was attributing a defense's improvement due "solely" to Jimmy G becoming the starter, and creating a strawman argument that Jimmy "did it by himself." Implying that the defensive players didn't even need to line up, didn't actually make any tackles, didn't actually get any sacks or interceptions. It's simply an intellectually dishonest way of arguing. Do I really have to qualify my statement with "well the defensive players did run out there on defense and make tackles, so they deserve credit?" That is an OBVIOUS truth and one that does not need to be stated. We are all adults here and don't need that type of coddling.

My point was that in 2017, the defensive performance going from bottom 5 to top 5 was due to Jimmy becoming the starter. No other variables changed, none. So Jimmy's play at QB was the difference. Now, did WR's have to catch the ball? Yes. Did Kyle have to call plays? Yes. Did the defense have to make tackles, get sacks, and intercept passes? Yes. But those variables existed BEFORE Jimmy became the starter. So it's not necessary to repeat that those variables also existed after he became the starter.

This "BS" is why this thread is so damn long. Because anytime someone has anything positive to say about Jimmy's contributions, we have to have pages and pages of philosophical discussion about every minute detail. I mean random still can't admit that W/L record is a QB stat, even though it's recorded in the NFL record book lol.

I just reread every single post I made to you since the topic came up and not once did I do what you are claiming in the bolded. In fact I even agreed with you. Ironic that you complain about strawmanning.

With you it wasn't the players. You wanted to give credit to Kyle instead of Jimmy, and you used Mullens and Beathard as your "proof." You literally said that Jimmy "was only 10% better than Mullens" at converting 3rd downs. Jimmy at 50% compared to Mullens at 40% is a tremendous difference, and you tried to minimize it and give the credit to Kyle. Again, anything positive said about Jimmy is met with resistance by the loud minority.

No. I only compared the the 40% and 50% thing after you made excuses why the 2020 stats I brought up werent valid. My main argument was about 2020, and only shifted once you dismissed factual evidence and made excuses.

The stats were "valid." But you picked the season where Jimmy was playing with a high ankle sprain and eventually was out for the season. So was that intentional on your part to skew the stats in favor of your argument, or did you forget he was playing injured for those 6 games? And assuming you just forgot, how does that one season negate all of the other seasons where Jimmy was clearly head and shoulders better than any other Niners QB during his time here (besides Purdy)?

I picked the season where 3 quarterbacks played with the same roster. It was an attempt to minimize needing a ton of extra context, and provide stats played in similar situations.

There was nothing intentional to skew the stats, and you thinking that just proves you cannot be unbiased about the conversation. That absolutely wasnt the intention.

One season doesnt "negate" the other seasons. But every season is different, for obvious reasons. Comparing Jimmy in 2022 and Brian Hoyer in 2017 tells you what exactly? Comparing Jimmy in 2017 and Hoyer in 2017 should tell you much more...the results of that should be obvious.

What is interesting is that Purdy and Jimmy converted 3rd downs at same rate (48.2% for Jimmy and 47.9% for Purdy).

Comparing within the same season makes sense IF the other variables are the same or similar. Hence why I keep going back to 2017 to compare the defense before/after Jimmy. But the variables for 2020 are NOT the same because Jimmy was playing with a high ankle sprain and clearly in a ton of pain. It just so happened to be his worst year at converting 3rd downs. Hmm I wonder why you picked that year?

Using Jimmy's overall stats on 3rd down over the course of his time here creates a clear picture of his ability to convert 3rd downs. YOU moved the conversation to that data point. I said he was good on 3rd downs and used passer rating to show that. You said you don't care about passer rating, you only care about 3rd down conversions. So I showed that Jimmy converted on 3rd down at far higher rates than any other Niners QB (besides Purdy) during his time here. You decided to pick the one season where he only played 6 games and was injured.

And you accuse me of being biased??

I already explained to you why I picked that year. If you would like me to explain it again, will you promise to read it this time?

We all know Jimmy was successful at converting 3rd downs here. That was never argued against. But what I was saying is that Nick Mullens was successful too. And he is no where close to as good a QB as Jimmy is. That was my point. So logic tells me that other factors go into the fact that a borderline terrible QB in Mullens was more successful at converting 3rd downs than teams with actual starting QBs. Why is this difficult for you to grasp?

2019: 50%
2020: 42%
2021: 45%
2022: 48%

Just to make sure you remember I said it, yes, that is good.

How can you say Jimmy was successful at converting 3rd downs, and Nick Mullens was too, but no where close to as good a QB as Jimmy is. You yourself stated that Jimmy converted 10% higher than Mullens on 3rd down; so how can both of those be considered "successful?" Why are you so unwilling to simply state that Jimmy was better on 3rd down than Mullens? And that by being better on 3rd down, it helped our TOP, which in turn helped the defense?

These are irrefutable facts. Yet here were are pages and pages going back and forth arguing about what we all know to be true.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
Ok well I am saying it. It has nothing to do with being a strawman. Your point that a 1 play touchdown drive helps the defense less than a 10 minute touchdown drive is a silly point to make because its common sense...which again, no one was arguing against. You are all over the place here. Your original point was about TOP helping the defense, to which he replied touchdowns help more. Then you attempted to combine the two points as if that somehow was a good rebuttal to his argument.

It would be interesting to see if there is any data on this. What is more important to a defense, points or rest. Because the original argument was TOP vs. TDs....and YOU made it something different.

Its comical that you are claiming we are using strawmans, when that literally is exactly what you are doing.

Me not wanting to give Jimmy ALL the credit for the 2017 season turnaround is somehow me giving him none of it.

He was absolutely the biggest factor. But it wasn't ALL him. It's never ALL one player.

It also won't be ALL Jimmy whether the Raiders succeed or fail. Terrible back 7 will make things difficult unless they address it meaningfully.

Okay you don't want to give Jimmy ALL of the credit. Fine. You're even capitulating a bit because you're now saying he was "absolutely the biggest factor." So I will ask again, in 2017, other than Jimmy G becoming the starter, what variables changed to make these defensive improvements happen?

Defense was giving up 25.8 PPG before Jimmy became the starter; 19.8 PPG once Jimmy became starter.
Average TOP was 27:31 before Jimmy became starter; 32:54 once Jimmy became the starter.

Originally posted by Furlow:
Okay you don't want to give Jimmy ALL of the credit. Fine. You're even capitulating a bit because you're now saying he was "absolutely the biggest factor." So I will ask again, in 2017, other than Jimmy G becoming the starter, what variables changed to make these defensive improvements happen?

Defense was giving up 25.8 PPG before Jimmy became the starter; 19.8 PPG once Jimmy became starter.
Average TOP was 27:31 before Jimmy became starter; 32:54 once Jimmy became the starter.

I answered that above. Every game is unique with lots of factors beyond just TOP.

I never capitulated because I never said he wasn't the biggest factor. You assumed I wanted to give no credit because you want to give him all the credit and are projecting.

When you say the defenders had nothing to do with the turnaround that's my issue. It's ridiculous. Just like it's ridiculous to credit aJimmy solely (or blame him solely if there's a regression) if the raiders D improves.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by Furlow:
Okay you don't want to give Jimmy ALL of the credit. Fine. You're even capitulating a bit because you're now saying he was "absolutely the biggest factor." So I will ask again, in 2017, other than Jimmy G becoming the starter, what variables changed to make these defensive improvements happen?

Defense was giving up 25.8 PPG before Jimmy became the starter; 19.8 PPG once Jimmy became starter.
Average TOP was 27:31 before Jimmy became starter; 32:54 once Jimmy became the starter.

I answered that above. Every game is unique with lots of factors beyond just TOP.

I never capitulated because I never said he wasn't the biggest factor. You assumed I wanted to give no credit because you want to give him all the credit and are projecting.

When you say the defenders had nothing to do with the turnaround that's my issue. It's ridiculous. Just like it's ridiculous to credit aJimmy solely (or blame him solely if there's a regression) if the raiders D improves.

So you have no answer, other than the same nonsense about "the defenders had nothing to do with it." What specifically did they "have to do with it?" Did a starter or starters change? Did the defensive play calls change? Did someone come back from injury? Or you are referring to the obvious facts (that I already qualified even though it's not necessary) that the defensive players actually physically lined up and played the plays?

The Raiders is a different story, because it will be a different season. If they have different starters, a different DC, etc - then there will be other variables to discuss and assign credit or blame if the defense improves or gets worse. For the 2017 Niners, I'm still waiting to hear what those changes in variables were.

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:
The "BS" I'm referring to is taking a comment from me which was attributing a defense's improvement due "solely" to Jimmy G becoming the starter, and creating a strawman argument that Jimmy "did it by himself." Implying that the defensive players didn't even need to line up, didn't actually make any tackles, didn't actually get any sacks or interceptions. It's simply an intellectually dishonest way of arguing. Do I really have to qualify my statement with "well the defensive players did run out there on defense and make tackles, so they deserve credit?" That is an OBVIOUS truth and one that does not need to be stated. We are all adults here and don't need that type of coddling.

My point was that in 2017, the defensive performance going from bottom 5 to top 5 was due to Jimmy becoming the starter. No other variables changed, none. So Jimmy's play at QB was the difference. Now, did WR's have to catch the ball? Yes. Did Kyle have to call plays? Yes. Did the defense have to make tackles, get sacks, and intercept passes? Yes. But those variables existed BEFORE Jimmy became the starter. So it's not necessary to repeat that those variables also existed after he became the starter.

This "BS" is why this thread is so damn long. Because anytime someone has anything positive to say about Jimmy's contributions, we have to have pages and pages of philosophical discussion about every minute detail. I mean random still can't admit that W/L record is a QB stat, even though it's recorded in the NFL record book lol.

I just reread every single post I made to you since the topic came up and not once did I do what you are claiming in the bolded. In fact I even agreed with you. Ironic that you complain about strawmanning.

With you it wasn't the players. You wanted to give credit to Kyle instead of Jimmy, and you used Mullens and Beathard as your "proof." You literally said that Jimmy "was only 10% better than Mullens" at converting 3rd downs. Jimmy at 50% compared to Mullens at 40% is a tremendous difference, and you tried to minimize it and give the credit to Kyle. Again, anything positive said about Jimmy is met with resistance by the loud minority.

No. I only compared the the 40% and 50% thing after you made excuses why the 2020 stats I brought up werent valid. My main argument was about 2020, and only shifted once you dismissed factual evidence and made excuses.

The stats were "valid." But you picked the season where Jimmy was playing with a high ankle sprain and eventually was out for the season. So was that intentional on your part to skew the stats in favor of your argument, or did you forget he was playing injured for those 6 games? And assuming you just forgot, how does that one season negate all of the other seasons where Jimmy was clearly head and shoulders better than any other Niners QB during his time here (besides Purdy)?

I picked the season where 3 quarterbacks played with the same roster. It was an attempt to minimize needing a ton of extra context, and provide stats played in similar situations.

There was nothing intentional to skew the stats, and you thinking that just proves you cannot be unbiased about the conversation. That absolutely wasnt the intention.

One season doesnt "negate" the other seasons. But every season is different, for obvious reasons. Comparing Jimmy in 2022 and Brian Hoyer in 2017 tells you what exactly? Comparing Jimmy in 2017 and Hoyer in 2017 should tell you much more...the results of that should be obvious.

What is interesting is that Purdy and Jimmy converted 3rd downs at same rate (48.2% for Jimmy and 47.9% for Purdy).

Comparing within the same season makes sense IF the other variables are the same or similar. Hence why I keep going back to 2017 to compare the defense before/after Jimmy. But the variables for 2020 are NOT the same because Jimmy was playing with a high ankle sprain and clearly in a ton of pain. It just so happened to be his worst year at converting 3rd downs. Hmm I wonder why you picked that year?

Using Jimmy's overall stats on 3rd down over the course of his time here creates a clear picture of his ability to convert 3rd downs. YOU moved the conversation to that data point. I said he was good on 3rd downs and used passer rating to show that. You said you don't care about passer rating, you only care about 3rd down conversions. So I showed that Jimmy converted on 3rd down at far higher rates than any other Niners QB (besides Purdy) during his time here. You decided to pick the one season where he only played 6 games and was injured.

And you accuse me of being biased??

I already explained to you why I picked that year. If you would like me to explain it again, will you promise to read it this time?

We all know Jimmy was successful at converting 3rd downs here. That was never argued against. But what I was saying is that Nick Mullens was successful too. And he is no where close to as good a QB as Jimmy is. That was my point. So logic tells me that other factors go into the fact that a borderline terrible QB in Mullens was more successful at converting 3rd downs than teams with actual starting QBs. Why is this difficult for you to grasp?

2019: 50%
2020: 42%
2021: 45%
2022: 48%

Just to make sure you remember I said it, yes, that is good.

How can you say Jimmy was successful at converting 3rd downs, and Nick Mullens was too, but no where close to as good a QB as Jimmy is. You yourself stated that Jimmy converted 10% higher than Mullens on 3rd down; so how can both of those be considered "successful?" Why are you so unwilling to simply state that Jimmy was better on 3rd down than Mullens? And that by being better on 3rd down, it helped our TOP, which in turn helped the defense?

These are irrefutable facts. Yet here were are pages and pages going back and forth arguing about what we all know to be true.

40% IS successful, especially when you consider the fact that Mullens is at best a bad QB2. 40% was better than a lot of QBs that season. Mullens was middle of the pack that season. No, I am not unwilling to say Jimmy was better on 3rd down than Mullens. I specifically said that he was in numerous posts. I also specifically said that I agree TOP helps the defense. I never argued with you on either of those two points.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Furlow:
The "BS" I'm referring to is taking a comment from me which was attributing a defense's improvement due "solely" to Jimmy G becoming the starter, and creating a strawman argument that Jimmy "did it by himself." Implying that the defensive players didn't even need to line up, didn't actually make any tackles, didn't actually get any sacks or interceptions. It's simply an intellectually dishonest way of arguing. Do I really have to qualify my statement with "well the defensive players did run out there on defense and make tackles, so they deserve credit?" That is an OBVIOUS truth and one that does not need to be stated. We are all adults here and don't need that type of coddling.

My point was that in 2017, the defensive performance going from bottom 5 to top 5 was due to Jimmy becoming the starter. No other variables changed, none. So Jimmy's play at QB was the difference. Now, did WR's have to catch the ball? Yes. Did Kyle have to call plays? Yes. Did the defense have to make tackles, get sacks, and intercept passes? Yes. But those variables existed BEFORE Jimmy became the starter. So it's not necessary to repeat that those variables also existed after he became the starter.

This "BS" is why this thread is so damn long. Because anytime someone has anything positive to say about Jimmy's contributions, we have to have pages and pages of philosophical discussion about every minute detail. I mean random still can't admit that W/L record is a QB stat, even though it's recorded in the NFL record book lol.

I just reread every single post I made to you since the topic came up and not once did I do what you are claiming in the bolded. In fact I even agreed with you. Ironic that you complain about strawmanning.

With you it wasn't the players. You wanted to give credit to Kyle instead of Jimmy, and you used Mullens and Beathard as your "proof." You literally said that Jimmy "was only 10% better than Mullens" at converting 3rd downs. Jimmy at 50% compared to Mullens at 40% is a tremendous difference, and you tried to minimize it and give the credit to Kyle. Again, anything positive said about Jimmy is met with resistance by the loud minority.

No. I only compared the the 40% and 50% thing after you made excuses why the 2020 stats I brought up werent valid. My main argument was about 2020, and only shifted once you dismissed factual evidence and made excuses.

The stats were "valid." But you picked the season where Jimmy was playing with a high ankle sprain and eventually was out for the season. So was that intentional on your part to skew the stats in favor of your argument, or did you forget he was playing injured for those 6 games? And assuming you just forgot, how does that one season negate all of the other seasons where Jimmy was clearly head and shoulders better than any other Niners QB during his time here (besides Purdy)?

I picked the season where 3 quarterbacks played with the same roster. It was an attempt to minimize needing a ton of extra context, and provide stats played in similar situations.

There was nothing intentional to skew the stats, and you thinking that just proves you cannot be unbiased about the conversation. That absolutely wasnt the intention.

One season doesnt "negate" the other seasons. But every season is different, for obvious reasons. Comparing Jimmy in 2022 and Brian Hoyer in 2017 tells you what exactly? Comparing Jimmy in 2017 and Hoyer in 2017 should tell you much more...the results of that should be obvious.

What is interesting is that Purdy and Jimmy converted 3rd downs at same rate (48.2% for Jimmy and 47.9% for Purdy).

Comparing within the same season makes sense IF the other variables are the same or similar. Hence why I keep going back to 2017 to compare the defense before/after Jimmy. But the variables for 2020 are NOT the same because Jimmy was playing with a high ankle sprain and clearly in a ton of pain. It just so happened to be his worst year at converting 3rd downs. Hmm I wonder why you picked that year?

Using Jimmy's overall stats on 3rd down over the course of his time here creates a clear picture of his ability to convert 3rd downs. YOU moved the conversation to that data point. I said he was good on 3rd downs and used passer rating to show that. You said you don't care about passer rating, you only care about 3rd down conversions. So I showed that Jimmy converted on 3rd down at far higher rates than any other Niners QB (besides Purdy) during his time here. You decided to pick the one season where he only played 6 games and was injured.

And you accuse me of being biased??

I already explained to you why I picked that year. If you would like me to explain it again, will you promise to read it this time?

We all know Jimmy was successful at converting 3rd downs here. That was never argued against. But what I was saying is that Nick Mullens was successful too. And he is no where close to as good a QB as Jimmy is. That was my point. So logic tells me that other factors go into the fact that a borderline terrible QB in Mullens was more successful at converting 3rd downs than teams with actual starting QBs. Why is this difficult for you to grasp?

2019: 50%
2020: 42%
2021: 45%
2022: 48%

Just to make sure you remember I said it, yes, that is good.

How can you say Jimmy was successful at converting 3rd downs, and Nick Mullens was too, but no where close to as good a QB as Jimmy is. You yourself stated that Jimmy converted 10% higher than Mullens on 3rd down; so how can both of those be considered "successful?" Why are you so unwilling to simply state that Jimmy was better on 3rd down than Mullens? And that by being better on 3rd down, it helped our TOP, which in turn helped the defense?

These are irrefutable facts. Yet here were are pages and pages going back and forth arguing about what we all know to be true.

40% IS successful, especially when you consider the fact that Mullens is at best a bad QB2. 40% was better than a lot of QBs that season. Mullens was middle of the pack that season. No, I am not unwilling to say Jimmy was better on 3rd down than Mullens. I specifically said that he was in numerous posts. I also specifically said that I agree TOP helps the defense. I never argued with you on either of those two points.

I don't even know where you're getting Mullens and 40%, because I can't find it. Finding passing only on 3rd down is tough. Here's what I did find, and that's 3rd down conversions as a team. Here's how the Niners have done over the last 5 seasons:

2018: 37.8 (18th)
2019: 45.0 (5th)
2020: 39.1 (24th)
2021: 40.2 (14th)
2022: 45.0 (6th)

What stands out to me are the years that Jimmy was injured and missed most of the games (2018 and 2020), we had a huge dip in 3rd down conversion rate. I guess it could be a coincidence.
https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?lg=NFL&yr=2022&type=reg&cat=W&group=O&conf=&sort=thirdpct

I also found this article which shows Jimmy G being the 3rd best QB at converting on 3rd and 4th down from 2017-2021 (written in January 2022). I don't see Mullens on the list: https://brownswire.usatoday.com/2022/01/22/qb-conversion-rate-over-last-5-years-shows-interesting-data/

This article has Jimmy at 4th overall at 49% for 2021: https://thehuddle.com/2022/02/03/kings-of-third-down-quarterbacks/