Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers Rebuilding Plan

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by NCommand:

LMAO.

Check this one out too. That's huge for Callahan!

Ravens are giving CB Tavon Young a three-year, $25.8 million extension with a max value of $29 million, making him the NFL's highest-paid nickel back, per source.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 21, 2019

That is huge. Every agent for every slot/nickel will now use that as the barometer of the ask.

Callahan gonna get paid.

Yeah, that's OCB money. I thought $6M was on the conservative high end. Nope. New market set. The Beara just may in fact lose one of those two. I could see Fangio going hard after both too.

So as far as a comparison this bears team is close to being the finished product that they are pinning there super bowl aspirations on. Baring a loss of a player hear or adding a player there. I would hope that and can see a niners final product being much better. If this is the bears nucleus for their run then I wish them good luck.

Originally posted by Izyniner:
So as far as a comparison this bears team is close to being the finished product that they are pinning there super bowl aspirations on. Baring a loss of a player hear or adding a player there. I would hope that and can see a niners final product being much better. If this is the bears nucleus for their run then I wish them good luck.

It all hinges on how much Trubisky improves.

if we let bears get gould, they def winning this rebuilding plan.

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Izyniner:

So as far as a comparison this bears team is close to being the finished product that they are pinning there super bowl aspirations on. Baring a loss of a player hear or adding a player there. I would hope that and can see a niners final product being much better. If this is the bears nucleus for their run then I wish them good luck.

It all hinges on how much Trubisky improves.

It really does. They've got plenty of talent to get to the top. A good HC with a great system. The loss of Fangio is huge but they have enough talent to implement new schemes.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Izyniner:
So as far as a comparison this bears team is close to being the finished product that they are pinning there super bowl aspirations on. Baring a loss of a player hear or adding a player there. I would hope that and can see a niners final product being much better. If this is the bears nucleus for their run then I wish them good luck.

It all hinges on how much Trubisky improves.

It really does. They've got plenty of talent to get to the top. A good HC with a great system. The loss of Fangio is huge but they have enough talent to implement new schemes.

Of course there is some chicken/egg stuff going on with that. Some better receivers would help the young QB develop more quickly.

For what they paid him, Allen Robinson was disappointing. Taylor Gabriel was another disappointment at WR. TE Trey Burton made it a trifecta of free agents who have not yet earned their money based on last year's numbers. Part of that is Trubisky still not having the experience to read defenses and make the correct adjustments but receivers have to do their part as well.

All of which gets us back to the topic: As of now, Chicago's FA moves have not yielded results in accord with the money paid. Burton has the 8th richest TE APY contract but is not in the top 20 in performance. Robinson is #12 in money paid but #28 in performance. Gabriel is #32 in money and 51 in performance. All that to say what we already know, FA is the most expensive way to upgrade a team, and no guarantee you actually will get anything close to what you are paying.

Originally posted by dj43:

Of course there is some chicken/egg stuff going on with that. Some better receivers would help the young QB develop more quickly.

For what they paid him, Allen Robinson was disappointing. Taylor Gabriel was another disappointment at WR. TE Trey Burton made it a trifecta of free agents who have not yet earned their money based on last year's numbers. Part of that is Trubisky still not having the experience to read defenses and make the correct adjustments but receivers have to do their part as well.

All of which gets us back to the topic: As of now, Chicago's FA moves have not yielded results in accord with the money paid. Burton has the 8th richest TE APY contract but is not in the top 20 in performance. Robinson is #12 in money paid but #28 in performance. Gabriel is #32 in money and 51 in performance. All that to say what we already know, FA is the most expensive way to upgrade a team, and no guarantee you actually will get anything close to what you are paying.

Great post dj. Completely agree

Originally posted by elguapo:

Originally posted by dj43:

Of course there is some chicken/egg stuff going on with that. Some better receivers would help the young QB develop more quickly.

For what they paid him, Allen Robinson was disappointing. Taylor Gabriel was another disappointment at WR. TE Trey Burton made it a trifecta of free agents who have not yet earned their money based on last year's numbers. Part of that is Trubisky still not having the experience to read defenses and make the correct adjustments but receivers have to do their part as well.

All of which gets us back to the topic: As of now, Chicago's FA moves have not yielded results in accord with the money paid. Burton has the 8th richest TE APY contract but is not in the top 20 in performance. Robinson is #12 in money paid but #28 in performance. Gabriel is #32 in money and 51 in performance. All that to say what we already know, FA is the most expensive way to upgrade a team, and no guarantee you actually will get anything close to what you are paying.

Great post dj. Completely agree

Except the Bears only attempted 500 passes last year (bottom of the league). Their production relative to this fact is just fine. You throw those players in a Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Atlanta or Philadelphia system and they "earn their contracts." Value, it's all relative. They aren't winning their division or making the playoffs if those three aren't there.

754 yards for Allen Robinson on that team is 1K on ours. Hell, Kyle nearly made Goodwin a 1K receiver. He made Kittle one this year. How are both of them doing in Chicago?

Be careful when evaluating value esp. in these free agency times.

At the end of the day, it's about adding talent and that talent helped them go much further than first anticipated. They were picked to be 3rd in that division.

Now we need to add talent and let's see if we can do the same!

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by elguapo:

Originally posted by dj43:
Of course there is some chicken/egg stuff going on with that. Some better receivers would help the young QB develop more quickly.

For what they paid him, Allen Robinson was disappointing. Taylor Gabriel was another disappointment at WR. TE Trey Burton made it a trifecta of free agents who have not yet earned their money based on last year's numbers. Part of that is Trubisky still not having the experience to read defenses and make the correct adjustments but receivers have to do their part as well.

All of which gets us back to the topic: As of now, Chicago's FA moves have not yielded results in accord with the money paid. Burton has the 8th richest TE APY contract but is not in the top 20 in performance. Robinson is #12 in money paid but #28 in performance. Gabriel is #32 in money and 51 in performance. All that to say what we already know, FA is the most expensive way to upgrade a team, and no guarantee you actually will get anything close to what you are paying.

Great post dj. Completely agree

Except the Bears only attempted 500 passes last year (bottom of the league). Their production relative to this fact is just fine. You throw those players in a Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Atlanta or Philadelphia system and they "earn their contracts." Value, it's all relative. They aren't winning their division or making the playoffs if those three aren't there.

754 yards for Allen Robinson on that team is 1K on ours. Hell, Kyle nearly made Goodwin a 1K receiver. He made Kittle one this year. How are both of them doing in Chicago?

Be careful when evaluating value esp. in these free agency times.

At the end of the day, it's about adding talent and that talent helped them go much further than first anticipated. They were picked to be 3rd in that division.

Now we need to add talent and let's see if we can do the same!

The "talent" that turned that team into a deep playoff contender was Mack.

The above mentioned receivers were nice but were not the same quality as Alshon Jeffrey. Losing him required these other adds.

I'm still favoring "drafting your way to success" with FA as a touch of salt here and there.

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by elguapo:

Originally posted by dj43:

Of course there is some chicken/egg stuff going on with that. Some better receivers would help the young QB develop more quickly.

For what they paid him, Allen Robinson was disappointing. Taylor Gabriel was another disappointment at WR. TE Trey Burton made it a trifecta of free agents who have not yet earned their money based on last year's numbers. Part of that is Trubisky still not having the experience to read defenses and make the correct adjustments but receivers have to do their part as well.

All of which gets us back to the topic: As of now, Chicago's FA moves have not yielded results in accord with the money paid. Burton has the 8th richest TE APY contract but is not in the top 20 in performance. Robinson is #12 in money paid but #28 in performance. Gabriel is #32 in money and 51 in performance. All that to say what we already know, FA is the most expensive way to upgrade a team, and no guarantee you actually will get anything close to what you are paying.

Great post dj. Completely agree

Except the Bears only attempted 500 passes last year (bottom of the league). Their production relative to this fact is just fine. You throw those players in a Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Atlanta or Philadelphia system and they "earn their contracts." Value, it's all relative. They aren't winning their division or making the playoffs if those three aren't there.

754 yards for Allen Robinson on that team is 1K on ours. Hell, Kyle nearly made Goodwin a 1K receiver. He made Kittle one this year. How are both of them doing in Chicago?

Be careful when evaluating value esp. in these free agency times.

At the end of the day, it's about adding talent and that talent helped them go much further than first anticipated. They were picked to be 3rd in that division.

Now we need to add talent and let's see if we can do the same!

The "talent" that turned that team into a deep playoff contender was Mack.

The above mentioned receivers were nice but were not the same quality as Alshon Jeffrey. Losing him required these other adds.

I'm still favoring "drafting your way to success" with FA as a touch of salt here and there.

They were already a top 5 defense without Mack. Mack just put them on Championship level playing field.

Oh that's fair. Alshon was a freak. I can't remember what his FA terms were over the years. I loved his game.

Totally cool with that.

Philosophically, I have a tendency to lean a little more one way or the other depending on a number of circumstances.

But my overall strategy is driven by available talent. If a number of pro bowl or all pro players hit the market, jump on it. I don't care where you're at in the rebuild.

If the draft is incredibly strong at your needs positions, go more conservative in FA and hit the draft hard including considering trade backs and ups to acquire as much high end talent as possible.

Others you can dial back in talent because of strengths of scheme and specific position coaches strengths to maximize above average talent and get the most out of it...the difference in Kyle vs. Saleh, so to speak.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by elguapo:

Originally posted by dj43:
Of course there is some chicken/egg stuff going on with that. Some better receivers would help the young QB develop more quickly.

For what they paid him, Allen Robinson was disappointing. Taylor Gabriel was another disappointment at WR. TE Trey Burton made it a trifecta of free agents who have not yet earned their money based on last year's numbers. Part of that is Trubisky still not having the experience to read defenses and make the correct adjustments but receivers have to do their part as well.

All of which gets us back to the topic: As of now, Chicago's FA moves have not yielded results in accord with the money paid. Burton has the 8th richest TE APY contract but is not in the top 20 in performance. Robinson is #12 in money paid but #28 in performance. Gabriel is #32 in money and 51 in performance. All that to say what we already know, FA is the most expensive way to upgrade a team, and no guarantee you actually will get anything close to what you are paying.

Great post dj. Completely agree

Except the Bears only attempted 500 passes last year (bottom of the league). Their production relative to this fact is just fine. You throw those players in a Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Atlanta or Philadelphia system and they "earn their contracts." Value, it's all relative. They aren't winning their division or making the playoffs if those three aren't there.

754 yards for Allen Robinson on that team is 1K on ours. Hell, Kyle nearly made Goodwin a 1K receiver. He made Kittle one this year. How are both of them doing in Chicago?

Be careful when evaluating value esp. in these free agency times.

At the end of the day, it's about adding talent and that talent helped them go much further than first anticipated. They were picked to be 3rd in that division.

Now we need to add talent and let's see if we can do the same!

The "talent" that turned that team into a deep playoff contender was Mack.

The above mentioned receivers were nice but were not the same quality as Alshon Jeffrey. Losing him required these other adds.

I'm still favoring "drafting your way to success" with FA as a touch of salt here and there.

They were already a top 5 defense without Mack. Mack just put them on Championship level playing field.

Oh that's fair. Alshon was a freak. I can't remember what his FA terms were over the years. I loved his game.

Totally cool with that.

Philosophically, I have a tendency to lean a little more one way or the other depending on a number of circumstances.

But my overall strategy is driven by available talent. If a number of pro bowl or all pro players hit the market, jump on it. I don't care where you're at in the rebuild.

If the draft is incredibly strong at your needs positions, go more conservative in FA and hit the draft hard including considering trade backs and ups to acquire as much high end talent as possible.

Others you can dial back in talent because of strengths of scheme and specific position coaches strengths to maximize above average talent and get the most out of it...the difference in Kyle vs. Saleh, so to speak.

I recall reading several reports saying that Mack changed the mindset of the entire team - offense in particular. They played more relaxed and focused than before.

Every year the pools of available players must be considered. No issues there. My bias, as expressed before, is that FA should be a distant second choice to drafting well. (coaching is always critical) Too many times teams have gotten themselves into cap hell by going for the big fix in FA. The Eagles are in something of that fix right now with Jeffrey's big contract - 2nd biggest contract on a team with only $2M in cap room. Allowing him to walk instead of matching the offer at least allowed the Bears some room to replace him with three other guys - albeit somewhat expensively. Good choice by Pace, IMO. It wasn't his fault Parkey missed the kick.

Originally posted by dj43:

I recall reading several reports saying that Mack changed the mindset of the entire team - offense in particular. They played more relaxed and focused than before.

Every year the pools of available players must be considered. No issues there. My bias, as expressed before, is that FA should be a distant second choice to drafting well. (coaching is always critical) Too many times teams have gotten themselves into cap hell by going for the big fix in FA. The Eagles are in something of that fix right now with Jeffrey's big contract - 2nd biggest contract on a team with only $2M in cap room. Allowing him to walk instead of matching the offer at least allowed the Bears some room to replace him with three other guys - albeit somewhat expensively. Good choice by Pace, IMO. It wasn't his fault Parkey missed the kick.

I totally buy that regarding Mack. He's a transcending player. Like JG, he has the ability to raise the play of everyone.

Given my research during the Baalke era of GM's, they're averaging 2.3 picks per draft for starters (hit rate). So the goal is to get 3 staters from the draft. If you can get 3 really good staters, you're rolling.

If you live by Lynch's philosophy of "we're going to draft our way out of this" that's 3 x 6 = 18 starters (900+ snaps). Teams are turning their franchises around with FA now. We have FAR more examples of this than solely relying on the draft (Vikings...still trying...even with Cousins).

Get a FQB, get 3 staters per draft (a couple pro bowlers out of that group over the years) and supplement aggressively in FA and you should be challenging every year.

Year 2:
FQB - Check
3 Starters Per Draft - No (3 in 2 years: Mike McGlinchey, Fred Warner & George Kittle)
Aggressive FA - No Check

If Lynch lives by his own mantra of relying on the draft, he won't last much longer, unfortunately, esp. at his success/fail hit rate.

^ 3 starters?
Thomas is a starter, Colbert is a starter, Breida is a starter, Pettis could/should be considered a starter, Whitherspoon is a starter, DJ Jones is about to be a starter along with Harris. Reed and Moore got a couple starts. So those should all be hits so even if we don't factor in guys that started at the end of the year or are slated to start this year, that's 7 starters in 2 years so 3.5 per year
Also not following one no check for aggressive in FA? The FA signings and amounts dolled out day otherwise

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

^ 3 starters?
Thomas is a starter, Colbert is a starter, Breida is a starter, Pettis could/should be considered a starter, Whitherspoon is a starter, DJ Jones is about to be a starter along with Harris. Reed and Moore got a couple starts. So those should all be hits so even if we don't factor in guys that started at the end of the year or are slated to start this year, that's 7 starters in 2 years so 3.5 per year
Also not following one no check for aggressive in FA? The FA signings and amounts dolled out day otherwise

Really? I mean actual starters...not role players, guys that have started 5 games, backups forced into starting roles d/t injuries, etc. Actual drafted 900+ snap proven starters who would certainly start on other teams and are a part of our long term future as building blocks in this rebuild.

Some of those guys could move into this bucket next year but for now, not yet.

Aggressive in FA? Let's acquire one player over $10M before we start talking about being aggressive. We're a mid-tier target FO and have been that way since the Yorks took over.

PS: Every team needs those critical role players too and depth players. We certainly have a few nice pieces there who could grow to even more.

^ yup Witherspoon, Colbert, Thomas, Breida, MM, Warner and Kittle all look like the starters to me and Pettis started 7 games so that meets the 5 game mark you mentioned. And no they were not forced into their roles. so that's 8in 2 drafts and 4 per draft which is higher then the 2.3 mark you mentioned.
You keep saying mid tier...the contract #s say otherwise so we are again just going to have to agree to disagree not to mention going out and spending that they spent would certainly not equate to a no check imo