I am a fan of Buckner's but there's been some pretty substantive analytic data to show that he was indeed overhyped by the 49ers fanbase and is being overpaid waaaaay beyond his actual value by the Colts. Read this
Pro-Football Focus analysis on his trade to Indianapolis which argues that we made a great deal to swap him in exchange for the 13th overall pick that landed us Kinlaw. Their take on the pumped up nature of Buckner's productivity deserves special attention:
Buckner has been a good player over the course of his four-year career with the 'Niners. He owns PFF grade ranks of 31st, 17th, 25th and ninth and has been an above-average player against the run and getting after the quarterback in the pass-rush. Key words being "above average."
Buckner isn't the elite pass-rusher many have made him out to be. In his four seasons in the NFL, Buckner has generated pressure on 10.6% of his pass-rush reps, which is a solid rate that ranks 12th among interior defensive linemen. But more than 27% of those pressures were from a cleanup or unblocked, which isn't nearly as bad as some interior pass-rushers but isn't nearly as good as the elite guys. Donald owns the lowest rate at 12.5%, with Chris Jones the second-lowest at 15.6%.
The article goes on to explain that, contrary to the popular narrative, Defo has benefited from his surrounding talent as a pass rusher more than the surrounding talent has held him back. For since 2016, Defo has he collected the most sacks that were a cleanup/unblocked among interior pass-rushers with 16,
a total which is more than half (57%) his career 28.5 sack total.
PFF then charts Defo's value added relative to the amount of his new contract by measuring his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) on the Y-axis since 2016 versus his Average Per Year (APY) salary of 21 million per on the X-axis comparing his position there against the league's interior defensive linemen. Here is what their analysis shows:
The outlier all the way on the upper right hand corner all by his lonesome is Aaron Donald who is both far more productive and higher paid than the average interior defensive lineman. Meanwhile, Defo is his own outlier all by himself on the lower right, with a salary almost as lucrative as Donald's but with production that doesn't even put him in the tier below the Ram DMVP.
[ Edited by RasSuar on Aug 14, 2020 at 9:20 PM ]
