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Javon Kinlaw is a Jet!-Pick #14, 2020 NFL Draft.

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Originally posted by socal1632:
Originally posted by RedGoldSquatch:
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by RedGoldSquatch:
That's brutal.

Back to topic: I'm not sure this is a fair chart. Of course edge risers are going to get more pressure than interior guys, that's their job.

Having said that I have to side with NC a bit here, outside of Donald I just don't see enough difference in DTS from top tier to middle or lower. I put them in RB value territory in the draft as a result. Love the kid but would rather have gone in a more impactful position.

Originally posted by martysofresh:
Basically. Could've had Wirfs instead of trading back. Only time can tell how this will play out

Originally posted by maxsmart:
Correct, so far Kinlaw has been a poor pick because DT's are not impactful unless great pass rushers. Maybe he get's it together next year? Should have picked Wirfs and cut Bust McGlinchey

We're getting some smart fans in here!

Here's the problem with this take- Kinlaw was known as a pass rusher coming out. A raw player with elite physical traits. It's one year from a player that was said to be raw. Was Quinnen Williams a run defender after year 1? You can go ahead and compare Q. Williams year 1 to Kinlaw's year 1. To hear some of you tell it, the Jets should've never drafted him because of his rookie season.

What we have is a player with great tools working under a coach that has gotten the most out of his player (Kocurek). With that said, based on the chart provided, people outta lay off of AA. I doubt they are going to do that because none of this is about actual information. Just a vendetta

Looking forward to what Kinlaw shows in year 2. I need a rookie to flash and show why they were drafted in the 1st. Kinlaw has given us those moments. Solomon Thomas by comparison, did not.

Also, there is NO ONE who saw what Mike McGlinchey produced in 2020 coming. Not a single person.
Perhaps I didn't make my position clear. It's not that I think Kinlaw is a bust, just the opposite. I think he flashes great things. I just don't believe DTs are worth much over potential replacements. So, to be clear, I laughed at the Jets for taking QW at all in the top 3. Just like running backs, it's not a worthwhile spot to draft high.

That's not a knock of QW either, he's a great player. I just believe there are more impactful positions in football. Would rather have:
FQB
#1 WR
Lock down corner
Elite edge
Elite LT (yes, I'm aware I say TW isn't worth the money.)

It's pretty simple. If we want to extend this window, he can't be the "has flashes of greatness" guy next year. No time. Our secondary is gonna be in NY and we have "out for the season man" behind center.
That an agreement with my position or you saying I missed something? I think we're in agreement here.
[ Edited by RedGoldSquatch on Jan 17, 2021 at 5:43 PM ]
Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
This kid is going to be an absolute stud, maybe as soon as next year, certainly by year 3.

I guess I would sum up this whole conversation like this.

An elite ER can make an average D look great. Look how Bosa completely changed our D. Garrett in Cleveland or Miller in Denver. Same with an elite CB, look sherman or Revis did in their day. Just not sure there is a DT that can do that. Donald is clearly the closest thing and he's a generational talent but the Rams are winning nothing anytime soon even with him there.
[ Edited by RedGoldSquatch on Jan 17, 2021 at 6:12 PM ]
Originally posted by RedGoldSquatch:
I don't disagree with this but that is in a vacuum where you say how would the team do without X. The question really is, what is the impact vs the person replacing him. Buckner is a great example. Top 5 at his position, did we miss him? Sure. Was it such a big drop in production it was bigger than the loss of Boss/ Ford? No. They simply aren't worth as much because it's a relatively low impact position of your name isn't Aaron Donald

DeFo had 19.5 sacks his last 2 years here and 9.5 this year. I believe we had 9 sacks total from the IDL, and that includes AA who plays both inside and out. That doesn't include the pressures, hurries, and hits DeFo generates. 1 player had 9.5 sacks, it took us 7-8 guys to get 9 sacks.

The interior pass rush definitely missed DeFo. He isn't Donald but he is an impact player at 3T and made an impact on the Indy DL.

We took Kinlaw because we think when developed he will be another impact player and the 3T spot.

If DT isn't worth as much because unless you are AD it isn't a high impact position, why do teams routinely draft them in the first round? Because we can't say the same about OG's.
Originally posted by RedGoldSquatch:
I guess I would sum up this whole conversation like this.

An elite ER can make an average D look great. Look how Bosa completely changed our D. Garrett in Cleveland or Miller in Denver. Same with an elite CB, look sherman or Revis did in their day. Just not sure there is a DT that can do that. Donald is clearly the closest thing and he's a generational talent but the Rams are winning nothing anytime soon even with him there.

Why does that matter to us though? We have an elite edge rusher as well!
Originally posted by RedGoldSquatch:
Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
This kid is going to be an absolute stud, maybe as soon as next year, certainly by year 3.

I guess I would sum up this whole conversation like this.

An elite ER can make an average D look great. Look how Bosa completely changed our D. Garrett in Cleveland or Miller in Denver. Same with an elite CB, look sherman or Revis did in their day. Just not sure there is a DT that can do that. Donald is clearly the closest thing and he's a generational talent but the Rams are winning nothing anytime soon even with him there.

Revis only won a SB at the tail end of his career on a Belichick coached team.

Sherm didn't win a thing without the LOB and Seahawk pass rush.

It is still a team game and every great needs some help around him. If Kinlaw develops like they hope, he is going to be a special player and an impact player.
Originally posted by evil:
Originally posted by RedGoldSquatch:
I don't disagree with this but that is in a vacuum where you say how would the team do without X. The question really is, what is the impact vs the person replacing him. Buckner is a great example. Top 5 at his position, did we miss him? Sure. Was it such a big drop in production it was bigger than the loss of Boss/ Ford? No. They simply aren't worth as much because it's a relatively low impact position of your name isn't Aaron Donald

DeFo had 19.5 sacks his last 2 years here and 9.5 this year. I believe we had 9 sacks total from the IDL, and that includes AA who plays both inside and out. That doesn't include the pressures, hurries, and hits DeFo generates. 1 player had 9.5 sacks, it took us 7-8 guys to get 9 sacks.

The interior pass rush definitely missed DeFo. He isn't Donald but he is an impact player at 3T and made an impact on the Indy DL.

We took Kinlaw because we think when developed he will be another impact player and the 3T spot.

If DT isn't worth as much because unless you are AD it isn't a high impact position, why do teams routinely draft them in the first round? Because we can't say the same about OG's.
Honestly I don't know especially when you consider how many of them end up getting cut loose after a couple years and most of the time not a beat is missed.
Originally posted by evil:
Originally posted by RedGoldSquatch:
Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
This kid is going to be an absolute stud, maybe as soon as next year, certainly by year 3.

I guess I would sum up this whole conversation like this.

An elite ER can make an average D look great. Look how Bosa completely changed our D. Garrett in Cleveland or Miller in Denver. Same with an elite CB, look sherman or Revis did in their day. Just not sure there is a DT that can do that. Donald is clearly the closest thing and he's a generational talent but the Rams are winning nothing anytime soon even with him there.

Revis only won a SB at the tail end of his career on a Belichick coached team.

Sherm didn't win a thing without the LOB and Seahawk pass rush.

It is still a team game and every great needs some help around him. If Kinlaw develops like they hope, he is going to be a special player and an impact player.
I'm talking about direct impact. Revis shut down everyone for a while. The LOB was built in their defensive backfield which allowed their pass rush to get home, not the other way around.

I'm both instances however my point is valid. Neither of those teams won because of DTs, they won on edge, corners.... Impact positions.

It's a team game and you aren't winning with a few girl scouts in the middle of the line but some pieces are simply more valuable than others. DT is one of those way down the list.
i guess fans will continue trashing kinlaw until the season starts :/
Originally posted by RedGoldSquatch:
I'm talking about direct impact. Revis shut down everyone for a while. The LOB was built in their defensive backfield which allowed their pass rush to get home, not the other way around.

I'm both instances however my point is valid. Neither of those teams won because of DTs, they won on edge, corners.... Impact positions.

It's a team game and you aren't winning with a few girl scouts in the middle of the line but some pieces are simply more valuable than others. DT is one of those way down the list.

We drafted a kid we believe is going to be a really good one. And for us, a really special player on the inside holds more value than for some others, we run a scheme that wants to generate consistent pressure with the front 4.
  • okdkid
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 23,271
Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
i guess fans will continue trashing kinlaw until the season starts :/

I stopped reading this thread once the season ended. I'm scared to scroll back and see the trash takes now that Kinlaw's excellent play can't keep the dummies at bay for another week.
Originally posted by okdkid:
Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
i guess fans will continue trashing kinlaw until the season starts :/

I stopped reading this thread once the season ended. I'm scared to scroll back and see the trash takes now that Kinlaw's excellent play can't keep the dummies at bay for another week.

I feel a lot more confident we can make stops in the run game with Kinlaw. He'll show his pass rushing next season with a healthy Bosa. But Kinlaw made a lot of nice plays this past season.
Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
i guess fans will continue trashing kinlaw until the season starts :/

That's normally how It works In here lol
Originally posted by okdkid:
Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
i guess fans will continue trashing kinlaw until the season starts :/

I stopped reading this thread once the season ended. I'm scared to scroll back and see the trash takes now that Kinlaw's excellent play can't keep the dummies at bay for another week.

they waited everytime he had a ho hum game to bash him, so frustrating
OG vs. DT is going to turn into the chicken vs. the egg. It will go down in NinerTalk history. Right up there with Adam Carriker vs. Patrick Willis or Tony Ugoh vs. Joe Staley.
Originally posted by evil:
Originally posted by RedGoldSquatch:
I don't disagree with this but that is in a vacuum where you say how would the team do without X. The question really is, what is the impact vs the person replacing him. Buckner is a great example. Top 5 at his position, did we miss him? Sure. Was it such a big drop in production it was bigger than the loss of Boss/ Ford? No. They simply aren't worth as much because it's a relatively low impact position of your name isn't Aaron Donald

DeFo had 19.5 sacks his last 2 years here and 9.5 this year. I believe we had 9 sacks total from the IDL, and that includes AA who plays both inside and out. That doesn't include the pressures, hurries, and hits DeFo generates. 1 player had 9.5 sacks, it took us 7-8 guys to get 9 sacks.

The interior pass rush definitely missed DeFo. He isn't Donald but he is an impact player at 3T and made an impact on the Indy DL.

We took Kinlaw because we think when developed he will be another impact player and the 3T spot.

If DT isn't worth as much because unless you are AD it isn't a high impact position, why do teams routinely draft them in the first round? Because we can't say the same about OG's.

You're missing the point he is making. Kinlaw is NOT a pass rusher like QWilliams and DeFo. The previous advanced stats posted, confirmed he's a run defender just like all of the other DT's we have so the position value we're getting at 3T, so far, is NOT stacking up to the need/value...which is and always was, pass rush from the premier interior pass rush position at 3T in a W9. And to his point, the drop off from the production of Kinlaw to Street, Jones, Daniels, Givens, etc. is nearly non-existent per those advanced stats (wasn't missed the final two games/same production from the DL). Like with Solomon Thomas, they thought they could turn a run defender into a pass rusher. So far, that has not been the case. He's a 500 snap run defending DT (and he needs work here too).

That said, he has had some flashes and like I said from day 1, we might not see that full pass rush until year three b/c of how raw he was. It's also possible he is what he is too and he never develops that critical piece to being a 3T in a W9. Is that good position value until then?
[ Edited by NCommand on Jan 18, 2021 at 5:37 AM ]
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