Zach Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos

We're not getting him or any others unless they fall to us (which is unlikely) or we trade up. Jets will probably move on from Darnold and take Lawrence. Jacksonville will take Justin Fields. This leaves about 5 teams that move on from their QB next season,

Dallas Dak Prescott
Carolina Teddy Bridgewater
Atlanta Matt Ryan
Philadelphia Jalen Hurts
Detroit Matthew Stafford

There is a good chance Cowboys stay with Prescott, but it is known at this point. But will probably draft defense.
Panther need a QB. They probably Zach Wilson, if Dallas doesn't. Eagles will probably draft OL or WR, Detroit then would then move on from Stafford and take maybe Trey Lance.

This leaves Kyle Trask or Mac Jones as possibilities for a first round pick (unless some other team trades up). Knowing the FO they will take a CB or defensive lineman and try to find a another CJ Beathard in the third round.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

The fact that your source has Mahomes at 55 ought to make you wonder if it's valid.

For one, we posted a video in the Chiefs thread where he went 62. Second, this source has him at 60 at the combine.

https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2017/3/10/14890754/cleveland-browns-2017-nfl-scouting-combine-qb-velocity



In light of the fact that your source is proven wrong by this video, and the fact that Garoppolo having a stronger arm than Mahomes is UTTERLY LAUGHABLE, you might want to rethink your source. Garoppolo did throw for 56 in my source, too, but his velocity is hovering at average among the people in his class per my source (and well below Mahomes).

And the biggest problem of all: Garoppolo at a combine is throwing mechanically sound, and thus maximizing his velocity. Garoppolo on game day consistently raises his foot incorrectly, which affects his power and accuracy.

https://www.ourlads.com/story/default/Quarterback-Ball-Velocity-at-NFL-Combine-2008-2017/10243/dh/

Jimmy's velocity was higher or the same as Mahomes. The difference is when Jimmy throws deep something happens and his ball tends to wobble and float off line. Maybe he's trying to put too much into, kind of the way a pitcher overthrows when he's trying for a strikeout. He loses his form and the ball drifts. That's the only explanation I have for why he has difficulty being consistent on deeper throws. He was plenty of velocity on the throws out to about 20-25 yards.

How can people be so high on Lance. Carson Wentz is bigger and taller and had far more games and throws in college than Lance. Look where he's at now in Philly. Lance has really had one full season and not a lot of passes thrown since he runs a lot. We also saw this with Darnold. People fell in love with him based on one good season at USC. He's struggles now because he's still learning. Can the Niners afford to use their #1 pick on a guy form the FCS that has so little experience? I'm assuming if they went QB at #1 then Jimmy would be gone. If they can find a way to keep JG for a year or so while Lance learns then maybe it could work but I doubt he's NFL ready right now.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Jimmy's velocity was higher or the same as Mahomes. The difference is when Jimmy throws deep something happens and his ball tends to wobble and float off line. Maybe he's trying to put too much into, kind of the way a pitcher overthrows when he's trying for a strikeout. He loses his form and the ball drifts. That's the only explanation I have for why he has difficulty being consistent on deeper throws. He was plenty of velocity on the throws out to about 20-25 yards.

My only point was arm strength is overrated.

Josh Allen averages 3.84 completions per game of 20+ yards. .46 of 40+ yards

Nick Mullens 3.75 of 20+ yards and .5 of 40+ yards.

You don't need a strong arm to move the ball. Joe Montana and Tom Brady showed us that.

Originally posted by krizay:
My only point was arm strength is overrated.

Josh Allen averages 3.84 completions per game of 20+ yards. .46 of 40+ yards

Nick Mullens 3.75 of 20+ yards and .5 of 40+ yards.

You don't need a strong arm to move the ball. Joe Montana and Tom Brady showed us that.

Strength isn't the problem. Accuracy is. Really deep throws of 35-40 yards or more are going to be less accurate by a big margin than short 10-15 yard throws which most QBs complete at around 60% or better. So if you take a QB that rarely throws deep and he completes 1 out of 2 in a game he will have a higher percentage than a QB that throws deep several times a game since the completion rate drops rapidly the deeper you throw. If Mullens threw 40+ yards as often as Mahomes or Allen I'm positive he would have a lower completion percentage. Every QB does.

It's even more than accuracy. Some QBs throw a more catchable ball that just seems to come down softer in the hands. Strong arm QBs sometimes have a problem learning how to take a little off on the shorter passes because the receivers can't catch them, even with the catchers mitts they use now. Allen had that problem his first 2 years but he's learned and his completion % has gone way up. Russel Wilson has perfected the deep high arching pass that comes down like a feather. So much goes into making a great QB. That's why there's such a high failure rate of 1st round picks. Some things you just can't see on tape.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Strength isn't the problem. Accuracy is. Really deep throws of 35-40 yards or more are going to be less accurate by a big margin than short 10-15 yard throws which most QBs complete at around 60% or better. So if you take a QB that rarely throws deep and he completes 1 out of 2 in a game he will have a higher percentage than a QB that throws deep several times a game since the completion rate drops rapidly the deeper you throw. If Mullens threw 40+ yards as often as Mahomes or Allen I'm positive he would have a lower completion percentage. Every QB does.

It's even more than accuracy. Some QBs throw a more catchable ball that just seems to come down softer in the hands. Strong arm QBs sometimes have a problem learning how to take a little off on the shorter passes because the receivers can't catch them, even with the catchers mitts they use now. Allen had that problem his first 2 years but he's learned and his completion % has gone way up. Russel Wilson has perfected the deep high arching pass that comes down like a feather. So much goes into making a great QB. That's why there's such a high failure rate of 1st round picks. Some things you just can't see on tape.

Sounds like you too believe accuracy is more important than arm strength.

That to me IS more important

Originally posted by ComeOnDeberg:

We're not getting him or any others unless they fall to us (which is unlikely) or we trade up. Jets will probably move on from Darnold and take Lawrence. Jacksonville will take Justin Fields. This leaves about 5 teams that move on from their QB next season,

Dallas Dak Prescott
Carolina Teddy Bridgewater
Atlanta Matt Ryan
Philadelphia Jalen Hurts
Detroit Matthew Stafford

There is a good chance Cowboys stay with Prescott, but it is known at this point. But will probably draft defense.
Panther need a QB. They probably Zach Wilson, if Dallas doesn't. Eagles will probably draft OL or WR, Detroit then would then move on from Stafford and take maybe Trey Lance.

This leaves Kyle Trask or Mac Jones as possibilities for a first round pick (unless some other team trades up). Knowing the FO they will take a CB or defensive lineman and try to find a another CJ Beathard in the third round.

They can always trade up. Plus no guarantee Carolina moves on from Bridgewater, he's completing 71% of his passes, 15th in QBR. He's done this without their best player on offense, CMC has missed most of the season. Detroit moves on from Stafford? Fine. Would be a great consolation prize instead of Wilson or Lance. As far as Dallas, they can still win the division. After Washington (v Seattle) and NYG (v Cleve) both lose, they are a game out. However, I guess that whole NFC East except Philly could need a QB. Lastly SF is probably picking top 10, won't be hard to move up if necessary.

Just don't think it's out of realm of possibility they come away with Wilson or Lance.

I'd be meh on Jones and especially Trask. If they missed out on a QB and grabbed Rousseau or Surtain, Farley, or Horn, I wouldn't hate it.

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Strength isn't the problem. Accuracy is. Really deep throws of 35-40 yards or more are going to be less accurate by a big margin than short 10-15 yard throws which most QBs complete at around 60% or better. So if you take a QB that rarely throws deep and he completes 1 out of 2 in a game he will have a higher percentage than a QB that throws deep several times a game since the completion rate drops rapidly the deeper you throw. If Mullens threw 40+ yards as often as Mahomes or Allen I'm positive he would have a lower completion percentage. Every QB does.

It's even more than accuracy. Some QBs throw a more catchable ball that just seems to come down softer in the hands. Strong arm QBs sometimes have a problem learning how to take a little off on the shorter passes because the receivers can't catch them, even with the catchers mitts they use now. Allen had that problem his first 2 years but he's learned and his completion % has gone way up. Russel Wilson has perfected the deep high arching pass that comes down like a feather. So much goes into making a great QB. That's why there's such a high failure rate of 1st round picks. Some things you just can't see on tape.

Sounds like you too believe accuracy is more important than arm strength.

That to me IS more important

But then again... Josh Allen and Justin Herbert say hi. I don't think it's easy to just transfer a players accuracy from college to the NFL. There's so much context to sift through.

Originally posted by Waterbear:

But then again... Josh Allen and Justin Herbert say hi. I don't think it's easy to just transfer a players accuracy from college to the NFL. There's so much context to sift through.

I'm not sitting here saying any of the top guys don't have accuracy. Not saying that at all.

All im saying is accuracy is more important than arm strength. You clearly need to have adequate arm strength to go with the accuracy but as a whole the arm strength discussion gets over blown around these parts. As does Big bodied WRs but now that we got who we got that conversation is dead.

Originally posted by Waterbear:
But then again... Josh Allen and Justin Herbert say hi. I don't think it's easy to just transfer a players accuracy from college to the NFL. There's so much context to sift through.

Josh Allen is an absolute anomaly......you simply don't become 'accurate' when you've shown little of it prior....yet here we are. Most everybody (including myself) thought he'd bust, and the guy is now discussed in the MVP race. I'm torn on that guy still....I want to see him repeat this year to put the nail in the coffin and prove that what he's doing is legit - because I still can't truly believe it - but I want him to have success because everybody s**t on him and the pick.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
How can people be so high on Lance. Carson Wentz is bigger and taller and had far more games and throws in college than Lance. Look where he's at now in Philly. Lance has really had one full season and not a lot of passes thrown since he runs a lot. We also saw this with Darnold. People fell in love with him based on one good season at USC. He's struggles now because he's still learning. Can the Niners afford to use their #1 pick on a guy form the FCS that has so little experience? I'm assuming if they went QB at #1 then Jimmy would be gone. If they can find a way to keep JG for a year or so while Lance learns then maybe it could work but I doubt he's NFL ready right now.

Where he's at right now is the Iggles having ruined him almost completely. He needs to get out of there to have any shot at resuming a normal NFL career.

I don't know what happened to Carson Wentz, but I don't think people fell in love with Sam Darnold around here. I certainly didn't. I can't remember how many posts I made about how disgusting his throwing mechanics were.

Originally posted by RickyRoma:
Josh Allen is an absolute anomaly......you simply don't become 'accurate' when you've shown little of it prior....yet here we are. Most everybody (including myself) thought he'd bust, and the guy is now discussed in the MVP race. I'm torn on that guy still....I want to see him repeat this year to put the nail in the coffin and prove that what he's doing is legit - because I still can't truly believe it - but I want him to have success because everybody s**t on him and the pick.

Josh Allen was my favorite QB from that draft. He has a crazy arm strength, he is very mobile and he is big. I always saw him as a mix of Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton.

The only thing he needed was a good QB´s coach to fix his mechanics and Ken Dorsey did it and look at Allen now.

Fans still don´t realize how important a QB´s coach is for a young QB and that´s why I don´t want Shane Day anywhere near if we get a rookie.

Originally posted by ComeOnDeberg:

We're not getting him or any others unless they fall to us (which is unlikely) or we trade up. Jets will probably move on from Darnold and take Lawrence. Jacksonville will take Justin Fields. This leaves about 5 teams that move on from their QB next season,

Dallas Dak Prescott
Carolina Teddy Bridgewater
Atlanta Matt Ryan
Philadelphia Jalen Hurts
Detroit Matthew Stafford

There is a good chance Cowboys stay with Prescott, but it is known at this point. But will probably draft defense.
Panther need a QB. They probably Zach Wilson, if Dallas doesn't. Eagles will probably draft OL or WR, Detroit then would then move on from Stafford and take maybe Trey Lance.

This leaves Kyle Trask or Mac Jones as possibilities for a first round pick (unless some other team trades up). Knowing the FO they will take a CB or defensive lineman and try to find a another CJ Beathard in the third round.

Nah