Dallas Cowboys QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by NYniner85:

There was a few drops on the day, and this one should've been an easy grab for Deebo to make. pic.twitter.com/sSk6lL07r6

— 49ersFilmFavorites (@49ers_Film) October 12, 2021

That one hurt, more so then just down and distance, but because he seems to have issues with the short quick throws and this was actually a good one.

My thought going into this game was let's see what Trey looks like with a full week of practice with the starters and a gameplan. I was not disappointed. Of course I wanted him to do better (as we all did). In no way would I call his first start a failure.

Now I want to see what he will look like with a bye week as a starter. Essentially two weeks of full preparation and rest. This is, of course, if he's healthy. Niners shoulda easily had 20 points against the Cardinals. They had a miracle of a goalline stand and some questionable 4th down calls on our part. I think Trey will keep getting better. I don't see the point in going back to Jimmy. We are not good enough to beat the Rams (imo) with Jimmy. We can possibly beat the Cards at home with Jimmy and maybe beat the Hawks round 2. That's a big maybe. With Trey (hoping he keeps getting better) you never know. Maybe he levels up after the bye? You know what we'll get with jimmy. Hang in the game offense and hopefully pull it out in the end.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by thl408:
Until Air Yards filters out screen passes and designed slides/bootlegs where the primary read is 2 yards downfield, I can't take it seriously. I do like the passing chart that shows where the QB's targets go. I think having a QB that can target all areas of the field is a benefit to the offense.

What do you mean? Air yards shows how far a balls travels before it hits a receiver. YPA doesn't factor in YAC. ADot is something we can use if you prefer? Avg depth of target.

He's meaning it's a stat that can skew with no mention of context. A qb can throw 4, 20 yard passes and 5 screens for -3 yards and they'll have a little over 7 IAY. Are we gonna say that's a QB that lives in the intermediate range? That's his point - unless it filters out throws designed to get the ball to a guy short, like a screen or quick bootleg slide - then it doesn't really tell the story and doesn't factor in the specific offense they run. For example, we run a ton of those plays where Deebo comes across and it's essentially a hand-off in front of the QB. JG gets a -4 air yards on plays like that. Against PHI we ran like 11 screen plays because they were playing so deep(Kyle's words, not mine) so air yards are going to be skewed way low.

And he's incorrect, because over a long enough sample size, every team runs around the same number of screens, etc. There is variance, but it's not a massive difference. 16 games is plenty of data to more or less normalize those things.

I'm going to need to see some evidence on that claim.

It's pretty obviously true. You might see five or six screens in a game AT BEST, which means the vast majority of passes are NOT screens. Per PFF, Kyler Murray had the most screen pass yards in 2019, and it was only 575. The Bills in 2019 only attempted 18 screen passes to running backs, and only 36 total screens all year, according to Buffalo News Charts.

I could keep digging for you, but it ought to be enough to convince you that screen passes aren't a massive factor compared to all the other passes thrown. And "by obviousness," it ought to be clear to you that every team attempts somewhere around two or three per game, on average.

It wasn't about YAC but volume of screens as they affect air yard averages. A screen is going to massively reduce AIY like one deep pass will skew the average. With the poor pass protection we had during spurts, Kyle would throw 8 passes for negative yards but high in YAC but those AIY are counted against the QB.

He didn't do that to this degree in Atlanta. He didn't even do that here in 2017 to that degree. What changed? You KNOW what changed.

Originally posted by TheGore49er:
Nobody is clowning you for spending time with your kids lmao. You come in here and give a strong opinion about how Lance is like Kap. Then when you're told you're wrong, you double down with ignorance and flaunt it.

Strong armed QBs with some touch and accuracy issues who likes to pull it down and run in a north-south physical running style. That's flaunting ignorance? My palette must not be as refined as yours. If you read my posts you would see that I agree Lance is more fluid athletically and has better escapability than Kap. I am also hopeful that Lance will see the field a whole lot better than Kap with experience, and that would be a difference maker. But that's going to take some time because he's very green right now and it feels like we can still reverse the backslide of the current season and squeak into the playoffs with our roster. I think Jimmy could get us there this year, whereas I think Lance would show flashes but will have a steep enough learning curve that we won't make it. Once we're out of contention, I'm all for playing Lance. That's neither an ignorant or original take. You are being overly defensive on the Kap comparison because it ultimately didn't work with Kap. If Lance is all that he's billed to be then he can avoid a similar trajectory and take it to another elite level that Kaepernick couldn't. But right now, today, he's a guy who doesn't throw it well enough to discourage defenses from scheming to stop his running. He will actually enjoy less of a grace period than Kap got since Kap was a novelty in his era.

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by dj43:
The assertion was that Jimmy was not capable of even those throws. The gifs prove that wrong.

He is currently in a system that focuses on quick throws. I would suggest part of that is the inability of the OL to provide an extra second of protection to allow those longer routes to develop.

DJ that was 6 years ago.

Did he make the throws or not?

Yes, there are a few examples of him making the throws 6 years ago. If you think thats relevant today, cool. I dont. No biggie.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Trey showing really good escapability here to pick up the first down. Nothing open downfield, so he gets out and picks up some yards on the ground. pic.twitter.com/9EYzyAZ42o

— 49ersFilmFavorites (@49ers_Film) October 12, 2021

Sorry ass playcall.. only two options against 6 defenders down field.. lol

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Trey showing really good escapability here to pick up the first down. Nothing open downfield, so he gets out and picks up some yards on the ground. pic.twitter.com/9EYzyAZ42o

— 49ersFilmFavorites (@49ers_Film) October 12, 2021

Good escapability, but definitely a play where Trey should just slide or go down at the end. That was a dangerous hit that McGlinchey took.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by dj43:
The assertion was that Jimmy was not capable of even those throws. The gifs prove that wrong.

He is currently in a system that focuses on quick throws. I would suggest part of that is the inability of the OL to provide an extra second of protection to allow those longer routes to develop.

DJ that was 6 years ago.

Did he make the throws or not?

Yes, there are a few examples of him making the throws 6 years ago. If you think thats relevant today, cool. I dont. No biggie.

It's relevant because he did it. Thanks.

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by dj43:
The assertion was that Jimmy was not capable of even those throws. The gifs prove that wrong.

He is currently in a system that focuses on quick throws. I would suggest part of that is the inability of the OL to provide an extra second of protection to allow those longer routes to develop.

DJ that was 6 years ago.

Did he make the throws or not?

Yes, there are a few examples of him making the throws 6 years ago. If you think thats relevant today, cool. I dont. No biggie.

It's relevant because he did it. Thanks.

Its irrelevant because he hasnt in 5 seasons. 6 years ago, Matt Ryan had the best QB season in the league. Does that matter in 2021?

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by dj43:
The assertion was that Jimmy was not capable of even those throws. The gifs prove that wrong.

He is currently in a system that focuses on quick throws. I would suggest part of that is the inability of the OL to provide an extra second of protection to allow those longer routes to develop.

DJ that was 6 years ago.

Did he make the throws or not?

Yes, there are a few examples of him making the throws 6 years ago. If you think thats relevant today, cool. I dont. No biggie.

It's relevant because he did it. Thanks.

Maybe we should sign Cam Newton if we're going off of what QBs did 6 years ago.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by jcs:

Originally posted by Franchise408:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Lol how is more meaningful? That does not factor in YAC. We're talking about QB play. There's a reason why everyone focuses on IAY and ADot it is a MUCH better reflection of what the QB is doing overall…but I'm sure if his numbers were better you'd be all about it

Because YPA show how the offense is actually moving.
IAY does not.

IAY don't count for more than YAC yards. You're just obsessed with meaningless IAY.

It's literally a madden stat that was incorporated into FF that is now being used to judge real time NFL players by fans on this forum. Crazy stuff....

...and it's a disparaging stat for Jimmy for the anything-but-Jimmy crowd. That's the reality of it. If anything air yards tell us more about Kyle than anything.

TTT is far more informative. For instance, if your QB is top 5 annually in getting rid of the ball quickly, but he's still getting hit 125 times a year (top 2), what does that tell you about your pass protection? If your QB is up near or over 3sec, what do you need for pass protection and what do you expect in holdings and P.I. calls?

I just spent 20 minutes finding a correlation between winning and IAY/PA. The five QBs who have won the most since 2018 average being ranked 10 in that "meaningless" stat, and 12 in YPA. It's not meaningless. You just don't like the reality that our starting QB is limited in where he can successfully attack the field, and you refuse to believe that is a weakness.

Thank you for doing that but you're missing the boat. This isn't about the QB. It's about Kyle and his 13, now 14 years of evidence no matter the QB.

How many times do we have to prove you wrong on this? Do you even look when we post evidence that his scheme was more downfield in the past?

Do you? Maybe we should go back to Rex Grossman and Brian Hoyer. Note his historic offense in 2016.


Kyle didn't change his offense for Garoppolo. You think he will for Trey?

Now, to the present: How many deep did Kyle call this last game with speed finally added in Travis Benjamin and his QB's strength, deeper passes? Kyle only calls deep once he's set it up. He's the QB. Not the QB, so to speak.

Originally posted by BamaNiner:
I appreciate that and agree we would all most likely have a good time in real life.
I will also take this time to apologize for continuing to harp on my Lance stance.
I will hop on board and start finding positives, which there are a lot and I will post here in a bit when work slows down. Trying to catch up from a weekend vacation.

All good dude

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by thl408:
Until Air Yards filters out screen passes and designed slides/bootlegs where the primary read is 2 yards downfield, I can't take it seriously. I do like the passing chart that shows where the QB's targets go. I think having a QB that can target all areas of the field is a benefit to the offense.

What do you mean? Air yards shows how far a balls travels before it hits a receiver. YPA doesn't factor in YAC. ADot is something we can use if you prefer? Avg depth of target.

He's meaning it's a stat that can skew with no mention of context. A qb can throw 4, 20 yard passes and 5 screens for -3 yards and they'll have a little over 7 IAY. Are we gonna say that's a QB that lives in the intermediate range? That's his point - unless it filters out throws designed to get the ball to a guy short, like a screen or quick bootleg slide - then it doesn't really tell the story and doesn't factor in the specific offense they run. For example, we run a ton of those plays where Deebo comes across and it's essentially a hand-off in front of the QB. JG gets a -4 air yards on plays like that. Against PHI we ran like 11 screen plays because they were playing so deep(Kyle's words, not mine) so air yards are going to be skewed way low.

And he's incorrect, because over a long enough sample size, every team runs around the same number of screens, etc. There is variance, but it's not a massive difference. 16 games is plenty of data to more or less normalize those things.

I'm going to need to see some evidence on that claim.

It's pretty obviously true. You might see five or six screens in a game AT BEST, which means the vast majority of passes are NOT screens. Per PFF, Kyler Murray had the most screen pass yards in 2019, and it was only 575. The Bills in 2019 only attempted 18 screen passes to running backs, and only 36 total screens all year, according to Buffalo News Charts.

I could keep digging for you, but it ought to be enough to convince you that screen passes aren't a massive factor compared to all the other passes thrown. And "by obviousness," it ought to be clear to you that every team attempts somewhere around two or three per game, on average.

It wasn't about YAC but volume of screens as they affect air yard averages. A screen is going to massively reduce AIY like one deep pass will skew the average. With the poor pass protection we had during spurts, Kyle would throw 8 passes for negative yards but high in YAC but those AIY are counted against the QB.

He didn't do that to this degree in Atlanta. He didn't even do that here in 2017 to that degree. What changed? You KNOW what changed.

Oh yeah?

He had both tackles hurt, RG and Matt Ryan was taking 125 QB hits like Garoppolo despite Garoppolo being the 5th fastest TTT?

Every naturally, we had a Julio Jones and a burner X and a young Sanu and two dynamic runners and excellent OL that year. There's a reason it was historic. Matt Ryan was also a more dynamic thrower and arm talent too.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Trey showing really good escapability here to pick up the first down. Nothing open downfield, so he gets out and picks up some yards on the ground. pic.twitter.com/9EYzyAZ42o

— 49ersFilmFavorites (@49ers_Film) October 12, 2021

Sorry ass playcall.. only two options against 6 defenders down field.. lol

And one of them is your FB.