Dallas Cowboys QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by Jason:

Originally posted by WINiner:
I expect Trey to struggle year one as a stater honestly. There are going to be some games that make us question his ability in the NFL. He's going to need some patience and I sincerely hope people afford him that patience. I for one would rather see a young QB struggle and miss a wide-open WR than a seasoned vet in the same scenario, for example.

I agree with your assessment based on what I'm seeing. I believe he will struggle, at least the first half of the season. Our fans are pretty quick to turn on a player so I'm with you on the need for patience. If we miss the playoffs the people on the board won't be happy with him (even if it isn't his fault). If Brady is available (he's not) and it wouldn't screw up our cap (it would) I'd go that way. Trey is a superior athlete in this game but calling him one of the best 32
QBs in the league is foolish in my opinion

I think he could be not so good early and progress to a bright future by season's end.

Originally posted by Jason:
I'm watching the Houston game right now (nfl game pass). I'm into the fourth quarter and it's making me nervous about next year. People saying he's already better than Jimmy aren't watching the games. I'm not saying Trey will bust, I'm saying it may not be as awesome as we all hope next year.

Houston had a good pass defense.

Trey basically had to shake off the rust of never starting and adjust the 1st half
Trey absolutely shredded HOU starting with 38 seconds remaining before the half when KS let him pass
Before the 38 second mark
5/6
56 yards
1 INT

Remainder of the game
11/17 for 193 yards and 2 TDs

Here is Trey and some other guys who played HOU

Trey Mac Herbert (played week prior)
CM/AT 16/23 23/30 27/35
Yards 249 231 336
AVG 10.8 7.7 9.6
TD 2 1 1
INT 1 1 2
SACKS 1-8 1-5 1-8
QBR 31.4 64.9 43.9
RTG 116 95.3 92.1

With Trey you sacrifice some completions for bigger plays
Explosive plays lead to more TDs

Originally posted by NDSU:

Originally posted by Scooper1:

Originally posted by NDSU:
Your "win now" squad with Jimmy failed. So you want to stick with that. Got it.
D2 again, what a maroon.

Getting to the NFC championship game with one healthy non throwing arm is a highly successful season. Anyone who says different is a clown. The plan is working. Now time to trade Jimmy and get Trey going. Trey is ready to start his nfl career. There will be bumps, bruises, good, and bad but in the end he will successful. He's got every tool physically and mentally that is needed and an absolute phenomenal situation to grow in. Go 9ers!

NFL teams have only one goal. To win the Super Bowl. Lesser teams/fans think winning a division or getting to a Super Bowl is success.
You are the later.

Haha! how cliche of you. This isn't college football where you build a reputation get the best recruits year in year out, roll teams by 50 every week to national championships like Alabama and NDSU. By all means it's championship or bust every year in those situations good for those fans. This is big boy salary cap era NFL football. Games are decided by inches, field goals, and single digits when the worst are playing the best on a weekly basis. We rattled off 5 road wins in a row against winning playoff football teams. Beating the #1 seed in the nfc with the mvp of football and the best qb/wr tandem in the game with a massive home field advantage. Then went toe to toe with the super bowl champs. All with a very compromised qb. I can assure Jed, Kyle, Jon, and all of the players would call that a highly successful season. Disappointed? Sure any time you're that close to the ultimate your disappointed as am I, but successful none the least. Hell Trent Williams has been on record as wanting a chance to play in a playoff game past the wild card game put that into perspective. I understand high expectations and have them myself but if you are super bowl or bust every year of the nfl season you will be a highly disappointed fan. Also, if these are the expectations for Trey year in year out this thread will only become more toxic than it is. Calling me a lesser fan get f**king real.

Originally posted by Tigerlaw:
Houston had a good pass defense.

Trey basically had to shake off the rust of never starting and adjust the 1st half
Trey absolutely shredded HOU starting with 38 seconds remaining before the half when KS let him pass
Before the 38 second mark
5/6
56 yards
1 INT

Remainder of the game
11/17 for 193 yards and 2 TDs

Here is Trey and some other guys who played HOU

Trey Mac Herbert (played week prior)
CM/AT 16/23 23/30 27/35
Yards 249 231 336
AVG 10.8 7.7 9.6
TD 2 1 1
INT 1 1 2
SACKS 1-8 1-5 1-8
QBR 31.4 64.9 43.9
RTG 116 95.3 92.1

With Trey you sacrifice some completions for bigger plays
Explosive plays lead to more TDs

To be fair, I didn't consider rust. If you watch the game again you'll see he wasn't that great with 38 seconds left. He hit a db in the hands on his last pass that ricocheted to BA who made a spectacular catch and set up the field goal.

Maybe it is rust, maybe he makes some big jumps in ability. I hope people treat him better than they did Jimmy. My guess is he will be really good if he gets to that Steve Young place where he knows the offense so well he naturally knows where everyone will be and can play without thinking.

another note: he doesn't have great ball carrier vision and chooses his holes late (in both of his games).

Originally posted by Jason:

Originally posted by Tigerlaw:
Houston had a good pass defense.

Trey basically had to shake off the rust of never starting and adjust the 1st half
Trey absolutely shredded HOU starting with 38 seconds remaining before the half when KS let him pass
Before the 38 second mark
5/6
56 yards
1 INT

Remainder of the game
11/17 for 193 yards and 2 TDs

Here is Trey and some other guys who played HOU

Trey Mac Herbert (played week prior)
CM/AT 16/23 23/30 27/35
Yards 249 231 336
AVG 10.8 7.7 9.6
TD 2 1 1
INT 1 1 2
SACKS 1-8 1-5 1-8
QBR 31.4 64.9 43.9
RTG 116 95.3 92.1

With Trey you sacrifice some completions for bigger plays
Explosive plays lead to more TDs

To be fair, I didn't consider rust. If you watch the game again you'll see he wasn't that great with 38 seconds left. He hit a db in the hands on his last pass that ricocheted to BA who made a spectacular catch and set up the field goal.

Maybe it is rust, maybe he makes some big jumps in ability. I hope people treat him better than they did Jimmy. My guess is he will be really good if he gets to that Steve Young place where he knows the offense so well he naturally knows where everyone will be and can play without thinking.

another note: he doesn't have great ball carrier vision and chooses his holes late (in both of his games).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mqUIaWGQFY

ya the 2:32 mark...we all saw it.
The DB fully extended and barely tipped the ball
BA's catch wasn't spectacular other than reacting to the change in velocity
Even if BA drops it we were at the 31 yard line and in FG range

A 38 second 2 minute drill executed by the kid with little experience is actually pretty great.
He didn't have to run the 2 min drill in college...he has done it multiple times in the NFL now with success (here v HOU and preseason v SD 57 secs covering 75 yards for a TD)

That throw wasn't great but it worked. JG the vet was throwing far worse balls in our last few games (still can't believe GB didn't get pick 6 on his throws)

I'll accept the young QB making mistakes and correcting them over the vet repeating things

Originally posted by Tigerlaw:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mqUIaWGQFY

ya the 2:32 mark...we all saw it.
The DB fully extended and barely tipped the ball
BA's catch wasn't spectacular other than reacting to the change in velocity
Even if BA drops it we were at the 31 yard line and in FG range

A 38 second 2 minute drill executed by the kid with little experience is actually pretty great.
He didn't have to run the 2 min drill in college...he has done it multiple times in the NFL now with success (here v HOU and preseason v SD 57 secs covering 75 yards for a TD)

That throw wasn't great but it worked. JG the vet was throwing far worse balls in our last few games (still can't believe GB didn't get pick 6 on his throws)

I'll accept the young QB making mistakes and correcting them over the vet repeating things

Now I get it, I'm not talking to someone about football, just another guy trying to prove a narrative. Jimmy is terrible, Lance is already better - I got it. You win. Trophy is in the mail.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by Jason:
I'm watching the Houston game right now (nfl game pass). I'm into the fourth quarter and it's making me nervous about next year. People saying he's already better than Jimmy aren't watching the games. I'm not saying Trey will bust, I'm saying it may not be as awesome as we all hope next year.

Dude he didn't play football in 2020, he got no legit snaps for like 6+ months before getting tossed into two games with a weeks worth of 1st string reps.

He's a rookie QB. I feel like people in here have never experienced drafting a high end rookie QB and dealt with the process of all it.

FWIW outside of a couple posters, I don't think people think it's gonna be some magical Mahomes 50 TD season next yr from Lance. I expect him to improve as the season goes. I expect this team to play top end defense and run the hell out of the ball.

I am not so high on his performance against Houston as others. He had maybe 4 or 5 nice throws. Really saved by that PI which led to an easy td.

With that said, I have very low expectations next year knowing this will essentially be his rookie year. Some guys on here truly are expecting a mahommes like season and they're in for a serious disappointment.

Lance Vance will look shaky in his first few games but I think around the mid season to the end he's gonna look real good. I'm expecting at least a wild card game can't wait for this season.

Originally posted by Jason:

Originally posted by Tigerlaw:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mqUIaWGQFY

ya the 2:32 mark...we all saw it.
The DB fully extended and barely tipped the ball
BA's catch wasn't spectacular other than reacting to the change in velocity
Even if BA drops it we were at the 31 yard line and in FG range

A 38 second 2 minute drill executed by the kid with little experience is actually pretty great.
He didn't have to run the 2 min drill in college...he has done it multiple times in the NFL now with success (here v HOU and preseason v SD 57 secs covering 75 yards for a TD)

That throw wasn't great but it worked. JG the vet was throwing far worse balls in our last few games (still can't believe GB didn't get pick 6 on his throws)

I'll accept the young QB making mistakes and correcting them over the vet repeating things

Now I get it, I'm not talking to someone about football, just another guy trying to prove a narrative. Jimmy is terrible, Lance is already better - I got it. You win. Trophy is in the mail.

Says the guy who made up "hit a db in the hands on his last pass that ricocheted to BA who made a spectacular catch and set up the field goal."

Already at the 31 and in FG range.

Instead of addressing the facts you deflect and bail

Feel free to hate the kid

He is gonna make mistakes. Nothing he has done has been back breakingly bad.

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by BamaNiner:

Originally posted by Niners99:
Lance would easily have been the 1st overall pick in this draft. So many QB needy teams, and an otherwise crap QB class this year.

That's an opinion many have. However, I believe he would've fallen off hard with more exposure.
I think he is one of the most fortunate athletes in the last few years he didn't have a season to play in 20.
This guy was the 3rd overall pick after starting two years his whole life at qb in his life.

lol. Why are you still here? You're obviously not a 49ers fan.

The irony of you crapping on Trey Lance, but then swearing allegiance to Andy Dalton 2.0.

Allegiance to Mac Jones? Nah. Just 100% opposed to trading what they did for Lance. Mac is better now than Trey will ever be though. So there's that.
And to the guys mocking the comment about "starting two years at qb in his whole life" comment, Im not sure you understand. Not just his senior year in high school and 1 year in sub division cfb….he did t play qb in youth league, junior high, JV, etc. he has a fraction of the reps that pretty much every qb in history has coming into the league. That's why it was absolutely befuddling that a team who was two or three players away from Super Bowls in 3 years, traded assets and passed up getting help now traded for him.
Honestly, I think the Niners would've won the super bowl this year if they stayed out and drafted help on the o line in round one. The deal was so egregious I barely care now.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by JoseCortez:

Originally posted by Ezekiel38:

Originally posted by JoseCortez:

Originally posted by Pillbusta:

Originally posted by JoseCortez:
Lol. Lance guys also point to Stafford as the guy who took the rams over the top and that a franchise qb is necessary to win the superbowl. Stop with the conflicting arguments.

You do however need a QB that can elevate his game to beat playoff level defensive scheming. Playoff defenses will expose lesser QBs more times than not. You can be good but come playoffs you need to be elite and timely for three or four games

Heres the problem I have with any argument that wins are not a qb stat.

You take Aaron Rodgers, put him on the Giants, they're winning at least 11 games, probably more. You cant say that with any other position. That's why wins are a qb stat.

For Rodgers yes cuz he is elite.

Jimmy is not and the defense and run game carried his ass much of his time here.

Put Jimmy on the Giants and they win 6 games or less.

You take Aaron Donald and put him on the jaguars and they're still 2 and 15. A qb wins and loses games. No other position does that. That's why wins should be tied to the qb.

Then so should losses, and therefore Jimmy is a choke artist, Super Bowl LOSER and always will be. Because he's never getting back there again. No one will ever match his 2.8 4th quarter passer rating when it mattered most. If this is true, all the Jimmy love should have ended in 2019. But it didn't, because you don't really believe what you're saying. You're only saying it because it's the one and only statistical measure where Jimmy stands tall (you know that YPA doesn't matter when the WR is leading the NFL in YAC every season, so you have to hang your head on this one).

Of course, that win% has steadily dropped. He started out an incredible 21-5 (.807) for the first half of his career starts. Then, the next half, he dropped to 15-11 (.577). More than twice as many losses. You think that win percentage is going to climb back up again when he's on an inferior team?

Super Bowl loser? I guess Nick Bosa is too. And Shanny. And Tom Brady he's a multiple time Super Bowl LOSER. Mahomes throw him in there. You saying JG will never get back there again? How would you know? Plus would that prove anything? Marino never got back their either he was and is arguably the goat.

We've already seen JG on a team going nowhere fast I believe that team was 1-10 JG went undefeated. Everyone agrees JG is a solid oft injured QB who won a lot of games for our club when healthy. No need to label anyone a "choke artist". I mean no one applies that to Bosa or Kittle who were out there in the same SB defeat. I think you are inadvertently making the point you are arguing against. The whole point is QBs take an oversized share of the winning and losing. Just the nature of the position. And yes they are more important than other positions. It's the most important position in sports imo.

Great points!

Missing the point isn't making a great point. It's missing the point.

I think he made a great point. I think Jimmy handled the QB controversy between him and Trey masterfully, and not let it affect team chemistry. I think he gutted it out though some pretty painful injuries and didn't tank versus guys like Midget Murrey gets a litttle heat, the guy melts into a puddle of goo. He lead the team to the NFC championship game despite all the media harping the issues surrounding the three picks given up for Trey. He kept playing football when he could have easily been resentful and spilt the locker room. Jimmy may not have Treys rocket arm but he did play a big part in the 49ers getting into the NFC championship. To say he didn't is to be a Jimmy hater, in my opinion.

Okay so did you read the post he responded to? The point is that it is inaccurate to give a QB all the credit for a win OR all the blame for a loss in almost every case.

I read the post. It basically said wins and losses are directly related to how good your QB is.

No. The implication they made is that they are so uniquely tied to your QB that it's a unique QB stat. That's false. QBs are maybe 40% of wins and losses most of the time at best, sometimes more, sometimes less. And THAT is the rub! — The amount that the QB contributes to a win or loss generally fluctuates tremendously! That's why it's not a useful QB stat in and of itself without context. You can use it when you can isolate variables, and you won't drift too far into logical error. For example, when you are comparing two QBs on the same team. In that case, it's an accurate measure of the RELATIVE difference between the two QBs. RELATIVE is the operative word here. Why? Because all that tells you when the team loses with one QB and wins with another is that the latter QB is better than the former. It tells you nothing about the latter QB in relation to the rest of the QBs in the league! And that's the mistake you people are making. You're taking a measurement that is only valid within certain parameters, and you're blowing it right out of the gates and generalizing it. This is a logical error.

If you can't hold most of these variables constant or control them, you cannot use wins and losses to tell how good a QB is in relation to QBs not placed in the same situation, because a QB is not SOLELY or even more than 50% responsible for wins or losses most of the time (no QB can throw without a WR catching it; no QB can throw without the minimum physical time required for a WR to run a route and a QB to throw the ball; etc).

In conclusion: the only thing at this point that can be concluded with certainty from Jimmy's win/loss record is that he's a good deal better than C.J. Beathard, Nick Mullens, and Brian Hoyer. It tells you nothing about whether or not he is, to pound the same tired example, any better at all than Stafford. Because they were in entirely different circumstances.

Hence why it's simply a bad idea to use as a QB stat.

.
.

And as for the "intended air yards per attempt" debates, it's the same reason, except IAYPA falls on the other side of the issue. IAYPA is a statistic that CLEARLY is mostly about the quarterback. No WR is magically pulling along a pass as it travels through the air. This isn't Madden. That ball travels ONLY because the QB threw it. While there are some factors that affect if the QB can throw it, there are far FAR fewer factors going into to this stat outside of the QB than there is with wins and losses.

I disagree.

Some people disagree that the world is approximately an oblate spheroid.

I think a 50% win/loss percentage for a *rookie* QB. is pretty good.

Niners won alot of games with sub par QB play from Jimmy. They can do the same with Trey until he fully develops into an elite QB. Hurts wasn't good at all last season and yet the Eagles still won 9 games and that roster is nowhere near as good as the Niners.

Kyle was afraid to play Trey last year cause they would always have big leads going into the 4th quarter and he didn't want to blow the them.

Originally posted by BamaNiner:

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by BamaNiner:

Originally posted by Niners99:
Lance would easily have been the 1st overall pick in this draft. So many QB needy teams, and an otherwise crap QB class this year.

That's an opinion many have. However, I believe he would've fallen off hard with more exposure.
I think he is one of the most fortunate athletes in the last few years he didn't have a season to play in 20.
This guy was the 3rd overall pick after starting two years his whole life at qb in his life.

lol. Why are you still here? You're obviously not a 49ers fan.

The irony of you crapping on Trey Lance, but then swearing allegiance to Andy Dalton 2.0.

Allegiance to Mac Jones? Nah. Just 100% opposed to trading what they did for Lance. Mac is better now than Trey will ever be though. So there's that.
And to the guys mocking the comment about "starting two years at qb in his whole life" comment, Im not sure you understand. Not just his senior year in high school and 1 year in sub division cfb….he did t play qb in youth league, junior high, JV, etc. he has a fraction of the reps that pretty much every qb in history has coming into the league. That's why it was absolutely befuddling that a team who was two or three players away from Super Bowls in 3 years, traded assets and passed up getting help now traded for him.
Honestly, I think the Niners would've won the super bowl this year if they stayed out and drafted help on the o line in round one. The deal was so egregious I barely care now.

Originally posted by eric_anthony:
Lance Vance will look shaky in his first few games but I think around the mid season to the end he's gonna look real good. I'm expecting at least a wild card game can't wait for this season.

Yeah, I'm seeing a wildcard birth, too. Trey will have a good season as will the team. Playoffs in his first year starting will be a good omen.