Originally posted by Waterbear:
So 4 games is enough to determine Trey's not worth starting but 2-3 games is not enough time to get a good look at him?
PLEASE SOMEONE MAKE IT MAKE SENSE
It seems you're really missing the point of the argument, but in any case it's not four games. By the time the season starts it would be three full offseasons including training camps and preseasons, and four starts.
Start with the fact that my argument doesn't prioritize Trey's long term development, because we have an alternative long term answer in Purdy.
Our primary goal if Purdy is going to miss a small amount of time is to put our team in the best position to win until he returns. Let's say we sign Jacoby Brissett. Is it reasonable to think Brissett could be a better option to start for that small amount of time than Trey Lance, based on what they look like in camp? Yes it is. Why would you play Trey Lance if Brissett is outperforming him, when you're going to start Purdy shortly anyway? It's not enough games for him to meaningfully improve, and it's not enough games for us to make a decision on his future either.
Now let's say we sign Jacoby Brissett and Purdy is going miss all or the bulk of the '23 season. Is it still reasonable to think Brissett could be a better option at the start of the year than Trey Lance? Yes it still is. But! Is it reasonable to think that Brissett could QB this team for the full length or bulk of the season and we'd still be Super Bowl contenders? I'd say no in all likelihood. In this scenario you should probably play Trey Lance because it would be enough time for him to develop and for us to evaluate his future with the team. His development can become higher priority both because you don't have as realistic a shot of winning the Super Bowl anyway (with your other QBs), and your best shot would be him improving over the length of a full season.
Hopefully you can see how these points are intertwined and dependent on circumstances we aren't sure of. And that includes what Trey Lance looks like in camp. Notice I didn't actually say that Trey isn't worth starting. In it's simplest form my argument is advocating for competition in camp, especially if Purdy is targeted for a return early in the season.
[ Edited by SmokeyJoe on Mar 7, 2023 at 4:12 PM ]