Dallas Cowboys QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by BOI49er:
I think recency bias is at play here. In reality, how often does a team need to go to their 3rd quarterback. Most teams stash a youngster on their practice squad that nobody will poach onto their 53. If that is Lance's status, he's not going to play anyway, do us any good, or do anything but decrease in value.

When teams' top qb hopes don't materialize in the draft, I think taking a chance on a much higher draft pick in Trey, at his rookie price prior to his option year, is going to look far better than most other options. I'm not going to bet on John not doing something productive here for us.

What do you think a team in the situation you describe would offer in a trade for Trey?

I don't know, but I'd think we'd have a shot at a second. Perhaps trade the higher value qb position for a good looking propect at a less valuable position like cornerback. I know it hurts, but John and Kyle do move on when the outlook changes.

After this year, if he doesn't play, or if he does and doesn't look like a new man, much much lower.

Originally posted by Waterbear:
There's no doubt in my mind that Purdy made a better first impression on the field than Lance did. I just don't put much weight into the "he has the it factor" comments, because those come out after a long win streak and ultimately, players can change their teammates opinion of them, and that starts with playing games and performing well. I don't think Trey's teammates view him negatively at all, I assume they just believe in Purdy more because he proved it.

As far as the comment, I feel like we could just as easily say Kittle believes Trey will be a top 5 QB since he compared him to Josh Allen, I just don't think that's accurate either.

The only difference is that Trey is the only QB out of the three that has yet to build up any equity with the fans because he's only won 1 game he started and finished. For that reason, I personally feel like he deserves the most support since most fans have no problem making fun of him or mocking his tenure so far, because he's such an unknown.

All I've argued for was some patience. I don't expect him to start over Purdy, and I don't expect fans to believe in him more than Purdy or Jimmy for that matter. But he doesn't deserve the amount of criticism he gets IMO. Not yet anyway, maybe if he plays enough this year, some definitive claims about his game could me more palatable.

According to demeco, that was happening during training camp and not the season. I'll try to find the article.

trey could become a top 5 qb, I just don't see it, personally. I respect the fact that you do. Nothing wrong with that. Truthfully? I think allen is really good but overrated. He teeters very good and elite to me. Would be he fun to have? Yeah cause absolutely. I just doubt he ever delivers a super bowl to Buffalo. I think he struggles in the playoffs. I watched him this season again and all he did was constantly throw deep and it kept not working over and over again, that would worry me as a fan. It was like he was panicking.

i get what you're saying regarding Lance. I guess the difference between you and I is that I look at it as put or shut up, especially where our team is, which may or may not be fair to Trey, but it's the reality of the situation.you have a chance until someone outshines you. Should of done more to prove your greatness in the two seasons you sat with the coaches everyday and practiced everyday. I still think he belongs in the league, just don't feel sorry for him.

i don't mind being patient with him as long as he shows more than enough to win games or we don't have an exponentially more viable option. Personally, I haven't seen either.

He couldn't beat the worst team in the league cause of rain, yet the worst team in the league beat us cause of rain? Come on. I seriously question if he could beat a good to very good team because of the way he's played in his few starts. It's very worrisome if we want to compete but develop him at the same time.

Originally posted by BOI49er:
I don't know, but I'd think we'd have a shot at a second. Perhaps trade the higher value qb position for a good looking propect at a less valuable position like cornerback. I know it hurts, but John and Kyle do move on when the outlook changes.

After this year, if he doesn't play, or if he does and doesn't look like a new man, much much lower.

I think a 2nd is probably the most optimistic take on his current value (I don't think it's completely unrealistic for clarity), and I'm still unsure if the 49ers would take it. It's probably right at the borderline.

One issue I see with this is a team most likely wanting to trade for him would be a team with a high 2nd, and that's pressing towards the unrealistic.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by BOI49er:
I don't know, but I'd think we'd have a shot at a second. Perhaps trade the higher value qb position for a good looking propect at a less valuable position like cornerback. I know it hurts, but John and Kyle do move on when the outlook changes.

After this year, if he doesn't play, or if he does and doesn't look like a new man, much much lower.

I think a 2nd is probably the most optimistic take on his current value (I don't think it's completely unrealistic for clarity), and I'm still unsure if the 49ers would take it. It's probably right at the borderline.

One issue I see with this is a team most likely wanting to trade for him would be a team with a high 2nd, and that's pressing towards the unrealistic.

Fair enough. It's hard to know. Markets determine value, not original price, and especially when the commodity is unique, the only way to find out is to put it out there. Nobody can make you sell, so whether we'd sell would be directly related to how Kyle and John value him. If they don't want to put games in his hands in our SB run, they'll find him a depreciating commodity. Did anybody see Darnold coming?

Originally posted by tankle104:
According to demeco, that was happening during training camp and not the season. I'll try to find the article.

trey could become a top 5 qb, I just don't see it, personally. I respect the fact that you do. Nothing wrong with that. Truthfully? I think allen is really good but overrated. He teeters very good and elite to me. Would be he fun to have? Yeah cause absolutely. I just doubt he ever delivers a super bowl to Buffalo. I think he struggles in the playoffs. I watched him this season again and all he did was constantly throw deep and it kept not working over and over again, that would worry me as a fan. It was like he was panicking.

i get what you're saying regarding Lance. I guess the difference between you and I is that I look at it as put or shut up, especially where our team is, which may or may not be fair to Trey, but it's the reality of the situation.you have a chance until someone outshines you. Should of done more to prove your greatness in the two seasons you sat with the coaches everyday and practiced everyday. I still think he belongs in the league, just don't feel sorry for him.

i don't mind being patient with him as long as he shows more than enough to win games or we don't have an exponentially more viable option. Personally, I haven't seen either.

He couldn't beat the worst team in the league cause of rain, yet the worst team in the league beat us cause of rain? Come on. I seriously question if he could beat a good to very good team because of the way he's played in his few starts. It's very worrisome if we want to compete but develop him at the same time.

Good post. Not sure what Lance's story is going end up being. I still don't have much of an opinion on the matter either way. However, the fact remains that with Purdy's injury he has an opportunity to create a new narrative for himself. He seems like a good kid and l'll be rooting for him to step up and show what he can do. Go Niners!

Originally posted by BOI49er:
Fair enough. It's hard to know. Markets determine value, not original price, and especially when the commodity is unique, the only way to find out is to put it out there. Nobody can make you sell, so whether we'd sell would be directly related to how Kyle and John value him. If they don't want to put games in his hands in our SB run, they'll find him a depreciating commodity. Did anybody see Darnold coming?

Darnold specifically, no. Signing a veteran QB to compete for the #2 spot with Trey? Absolutely. Wasn't even a difficult prediction honestly. It was written on the wall.

The trade value argument with Trey really folds in on itself as I've tried to explain a few different times. We're not realistically going to up his trade value and actually trade him (we would keep him in that scenario), and I don't think his trade value gets significantly worse even if he is the #3 because of what he is as a player and where we are as a team. It's just not a secret to other teams. Either way, I'd be really surprised if he was traded this season. I tend to think he'll be here his entire rookie deal at least, but would leave room to reevaluate with new developments.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by BOI49er:
Fair enough. It's hard to know. Markets determine value, not original price, and especially when the commodity is unique, the only way to find out is to put it out there. Nobody can make you sell, so whether we'd sell would be directly related to how Kyle and John value him. If they don't want to put games in his hands in our SB run, they'll find him a depreciating commodity. Did anybody see Darnold coming?

Darnold specifically, no. Signing a veteran QB to compete for the #2 spot with Trey? Absolutely. Wasn't even a difficult prediction honestly. It was written on the wall.

The trade value argument with Trey really folds in on itself as I've tried to explain a few different times. We're not realistically going to up his trade value and actually trade him (we would keep him in that scenario), and I don't think his trade value gets significantly worse even if he is the #3 because of what he is as a player and where we are as a team. It's just not a secret to other teams. Either way, I'd be really surprised if he was traded this season. I tend to think he'll be here his entire rookie deal at least, but would leave room to reevaluate with new developments.

It's a secret to this fan base. It is a secret to other teams. The only people that have a pretty good clue to his prospects are John and Kyle, and if they demote him, that will be a clue to other teams. Trading him for value after naming a fine looking Brock the starter, not quite so much.

The problem with Trey is he has not played enough. What did he play in college 12-15 games? Purdy played 4 yrs and he shows that experience. If Trey doesn't show significant improvement in TC and pre- season games I
think Purdy will end up starting as soon as he is ready. The team cannot afford 1-2 yrs to let Lance learn, that was eaten up by injuries. I guess we will find out!!! But Purdy gives me a calmness when playing that I haven't had for along time.

Originally posted by BOI49er:
It's a secret to this fan base. It is a secret to other teams. The only people that have a pretty good clue to his prospects are John and Kyle, and if they demote him, that will be a clue to other teams. Trading him for value after naming a fine looking Brock the starter, not quite so much.

It's not about how they view him as a long term prospect as much as they can't afford to develop a qb with a win now roster. It's what he is at this moment, in conjunction with what our team is trying to accomplish right now. He's a project player with next to no experience and needs significant playing time. What he turns into given that opportunity is completely unknown. That's what wouldn't be a secret to other teams. We can pitch him in that context *even if he ends up behind Darnold on the depth chart next year which I don't think would be viewed the same way by NFL GMs as fans of the 49ers and especially Trey Lance.*

Trey isn't going anywhere right now. For all we know Brock will throw like jimmy G after this surgery.

Originally posted by 49ers81:

Originally posted by tankle104:
According to demeco, that was happening during training camp and not the season. I'll try to find the article.

trey could become a top 5 qb, I just don't see it, personally. I respect the fact that you do. Nothing wrong with that. Truthfully? I think allen is really good but overrated. He teeters very good and elite to me. Would be he fun to have? Yeah cause absolutely. I just doubt he ever delivers a super bowl to Buffalo. I think he struggles in the playoffs. I watched him this season again and all he did was constantly throw deep and it kept not working over and over again, that would worry me as a fan. It was like he was panicking.

i get what you're saying regarding Lance. I guess the difference between you and I is that I look at it as put or shut up, especially where our team is, which may or may not be fair to Trey, but it's the reality of the situation.you have a chance until someone outshines you. Should of done more to prove your greatness in the two seasons you sat with the coaches everyday and practiced everyday. I still think he belongs in the league, just don't feel sorry for him.

i don't mind being patient with him as long as he shows more than enough to win games or we don't have an exponentially more viable option. Personally, I haven't seen either.

He couldn't beat the worst team in the league cause of rain, yet the worst team in the league beat us cause of rain? Come on. I seriously question if he could beat a good to very good team because of the way he's played in his few starts. It's very worrisome if we want to compete but develop him at the same time.

Good post. Not sure what Lance's story is going end up being. I still don't have much of an opinion on the matter either way. However, the fact remains that with Purdy's injury he has an opportunity to create a new narrative for himself. He seems like a good kid and l'll be rooting for him to step up and show what he can do. Go Niners!

It's so weird to root against my instincts/analysis but I do hope he figures it out. If Trey balls, great, I just want him to show it, consistently. I'm tired of the whole "look at this one play here and there"

Originally posted by BOI49er:

Originally posted by Polkadots:

Originally posted by BOI49er:
If he can't beat out Darnold, or if the FO in fact doesn't think that is likely by the draft, he'd have more trade value now than after he falls further down our depth chart, has fewer years left on his contract, and the new team would be facing a $20m option year just to get a chance to try him out or go naked on a one year deal. That value is just about zero. Now, he's a very high pick that's just been injured and untried and superseded by a phenom, and there is still value there.

Like I said to Smokey, it's a matter of degrees. While I think you are correct in terrms of value (more now / less later), we are talking low value now versus minimal value later. And, when you take that into consideration, why trade him? A competent third QB on the 49ers, while unheard of before last year, might actually be a wise investment for this franchise.

If I am looking at this from an outside perspective looking to trade for Trey, a top (probably best) offensive mind in Kyle produced very little with Trey. Trey's play wasn't horrible, but when you look at what Brock did, and then look at what Trey did, you have to wonder what's up. And, given that wherever Trey would go, his OC will likely be inferior to Kyle, why am I giving up a ton for that? For potential? I haven't seen enough from Trey to risk my neck on his potential. You take those risks in the draft. And that's coming from someone who likes Trey. You won't see my history littered with Trey pessimism / hate.

I just don't see the point in any of these trade suggestions. There is no (or very little) value there. In fact, there is more (albeit, perhaps minimal) value for the 49ers to keep Trey. And Genus has already laid out the reasons a trade is so very unlikely, regardless of what John et. al. might be saying to the public.

I think recency bias is at play here. In reality, how often does a team need to go to their 3rd quarterback. Most teams stash a youngster on their practice squad that nobody will poach onto their 53. If that is Lance's status, he's not going to play anyway, do us any good, or do anything but decrease in value.

When teams' top qb hopes don't materialize in the draft, I think taking a chance on a much higher draft pick in Trey, at his rookie price prior to his option year, is going to look far better than most other options. I'm not going to bet on John not doing something productive here for us.

We've played at least 3 QBs in 4 of the 6 years Shanahan has been the coach.

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by BOI49er:

Originally posted by Polkadots:

Originally posted by BOI49er:
If he can't beat out Darnold, or if the FO in fact doesn't think that is likely by the draft, he'd have more trade value now than after he falls further down our depth chart, has fewer years left on his contract, and the new team would be facing a $20m option year just to get a chance to try him out or go naked on a one year deal. That value is just about zero. Now, he's a very high pick that's just been injured and untried and superseded by a phenom, and there is still value there.

Like I said to Smokey, it's a matter of degrees. While I think you are correct in terrms of value (more now / less later), we are talking low value now versus minimal value later. And, when you take that into consideration, why trade him? A competent third QB on the 49ers, while unheard of before last year, might actually be a wise investment for this franchise.

If I am looking at this from an outside perspective looking to trade for Trey, a top (probably best) offensive mind in Kyle produced very little with Trey. Trey's play wasn't horrible, but when you look at what Brock did, and then look at what Trey did, you have to wonder what's up. And, given that wherever Trey would go, his OC will likely be inferior to Kyle, why am I giving up a ton for that? For potential? I haven't seen enough from Trey to risk my neck on his potential. You take those risks in the draft. And that's coming from someone who likes Trey. You won't see my history littered with Trey pessimism / hate.

I just don't see the point in any of these trade suggestions. There is no (or very little) value there. In fact, there is more (albeit, perhaps minimal) value for the 49ers to keep Trey. And Genus has already laid out the reasons a trade is so very unlikely, regardless of what John et. al. might be saying to the public.

I think recency bias is at play here. In reality, how often does a team need to go to their 3rd quarterback. Most teams stash a youngster on their practice squad that nobody will poach onto their 53. If that is Lance's status, he's not going to play anyway, do us any good, or do anything but decrease in value.

When teams' top qb hopes don't materialize in the draft, I think taking a chance on a much higher draft pick in Trey, at his rookie price prior to his option year, is going to look far better than most other options. I'm not going to bet on John not doing something productive here for us.

We've played at least 3 QBs in 4 of the 6 years Shanahan has been the coach.

Yeah, I didn't know whether to play Hoyer, Garoppolo, Beathard, Mullens, Lance or Purdy either. Between 1988 and 2004, it Never happened. Same with 2008 to 2016. In our 71 year history before that through 2016, it happened 8 times.

You have to Have a quarterback to play a quarterback.

Can you imagine Garpooplo making up through the ranks in an era when you could actually hit a quarterback.

PS That was a typo, but I'm just gonna roll with it.

Originally posted by krizay:

Arm Talent
This is a loose term that refers to the ability to consistently make every type of throw. By this definition, arm talent would include arm strength because it takes arm strength to make deep passes to the sideline as well as passes far downfield. This does not mean that a quarterback has to have an elite arm, but simply that he has enough arm strength to make deep and intermediate passes. Arm talent also includes accuracy, because every type of throw includes proper ball placement. One aspect of arm talent that often overlooked is touch. Certain throws require taking something off or lobbing a pass over a defender. Even though raw strength is not a factor in touch, this is not an easy skill.

For a quarterback to have arm talent, he would have to have all three of these traits. A player like Colin Kaepernick might have an amazing arm, but struggles making touch passes; therefore, he does not have arm talent, he has great arm strength. Although he has tried to work on his touch, he has not shown that he can consistently make those passes – further evidence that arm talent is an inherent trait. Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, can make every type of throw, from amazing Hail Mary passes, to pin-point sideline passes, to seam passes that barely get over the outstretched fingertips of a linebacker. He has arm talent – maybe the best arm talent in the world.

[jwplayer file="http://cdn.insidethepylon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Rodgers-College.mov" image="http://cdn.insidethepylon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Rodgers-College.jpg"]

Aaron Rodgers' awkward ball carriage and footwork is on full display. Both have improved since entering the league, but you can also see his impressive arm talent that has translated into the pro game.

Verdict: Inherent Trait

Mental Processing Ability and Speed
Taking information and processing it quickly is something that is hard to improve by the age quarterbacks enter the draft. It is difficult for college quarterbacks to transition into the NFL because they are asked to process more information much faster and then translate that into physical action. If a prospect does not have that ability, then he will fail at making sense of pertinent information quickly enough to make a successful play. This is a difficult trait for NFL teams to evaluate. Scouts can learn about a prospect's mental processing through watching film or conducting interviews and asking prospects to get up on a white board and diagram plays and progressions. The Miami Dolphins are attempting a progressive approach of evaluating mental processing ability and speed by administering a new test called the siQ (Sports IQ) with which they have found some success.The test shows an image of an offense and defense from an all-22 angle and includes a question. The amount of time it takes to answer a question counts against the final grade.

Although getting a prospect on the whiteboard isn't completely telling of his mental processing speed and ability, Jameis Winston impresses in this session with former coach, Steve Mariucci:

Verdict: Inherent Trait

Poise In The Pocket
This is the ability to remain calm in the pocket with eye discipline (keeping eyes downfield rather than on the rush) and calm feet (not maneuvering to escape unnecessarily). It is not easy to remain calm with huge defensive ends and tackles smelling blood, but all great quarterbacks have a feel for where the rush is coming from while still giving their full attention to reading the secondary and finding open receivers. This trait is extremely hard to improve if a prospect does not show it in his college film, because the game gets much faster and more complicated in the NFL. If a prospect does not show great poise and feel in the pocket in college, then it is highly unlikely he'll learn this trait in the NFL.

Verdict: Inherent Trait

Clutch FactorThe ability to make good decisions and big plays when the game is on the line is inherent in some passers. Quarterbacks are made famous or infamous based on their two-minute drives. How does a prospect handle the pressure of having to win a game with the last drive of the game? The NFL is a competitive league and many games are decided by a touchdown or less, which means the game may be put into the quarterback's hands. You want a guy who is able to handle the pressure. Some quarterbacks are better equipped to handle that pressure and focus on what matters, while others will wilt under it. If a college quarterback isn't making plays when the lights are brightest, it is extremely hard for him to start when he reaches the NFL where the pressure is even greater.

Verdict: Inherent Trait

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/2016-nfl-draft/2016/03/17/quarterback-traits-the-attainable-versus-the-inherent/

"Taking information and processing it quickly is something that is hard to improve by the age quarterbacks enter the draft."

Lol got mocked relentlessly for pointing out this FACT OF REALITY.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by krizay:

Arm Talent
This is a loose term that refers to the ability to consistently make every type of throw. By this definition, arm talent would include arm strength because it takes arm strength to make deep passes to the sideline as well as passes far downfield. This does not mean that a quarterback has to have an elite arm, but simply that he has enough arm strength to make deep and intermediate passes. Arm talent also includes accuracy, because every type of throw includes proper ball placement. One aspect of arm talent that often overlooked is touch. Certain throws require taking something off or lobbing a pass over a defender. Even though raw strength is not a factor in touch, this is not an easy skill.

For a quarterback to have arm talent, he would have to have all three of these traits. A player like Colin Kaepernick might have an amazing arm, but struggles making touch passes; therefore, he does not have arm talent, he has great arm strength. Although he has tried to work on his touch, he has not shown that he can consistently make those passes – further evidence that arm talent is an inherent trait. Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, can make every type of throw, from amazing Hail Mary passes, to pin-point sideline passes, to seam passes that barely get over the outstretched fingertips of a linebacker. He has arm talent – maybe the best arm talent in the world.

[jwplayer file="http://cdn.insidethepylon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Rodgers-College.mov" image="http://cdn.insidethepylon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Rodgers-College.jpg"]

Aaron Rodgers' awkward ball carriage and footwork is on full display. Both have improved since entering the league, but you can also see his impressive arm talent that has translated into the pro game.

Verdict: Inherent Trait

Mental Processing Ability and Speed
Taking information and processing it quickly is something that is hard to improve by the age quarterbacks enter the draft. It is difficult for college quarterbacks to transition into the NFL because they are asked to process more information much faster and then translate that into physical action. If a prospect does not have that ability, then he will fail at making sense of pertinent information quickly enough to make a successful play. This is a difficult trait for NFL teams to evaluate. Scouts can learn about a prospect's mental processing through watching film or conducting interviews and asking prospects to get up on a white board and diagram plays and progressions. The Miami Dolphins are attempting a progressive approach of evaluating mental processing ability and speed by administering a new test called the siQ (Sports IQ) with which they have found some success.The test shows an image of an offense and defense from an all-22 angle and includes a question. The amount of time it takes to answer a question counts against the final grade.

Although getting a prospect on the whiteboard isn't completely telling of his mental processing speed and ability, Jameis Winston impresses in this session with former coach, Steve Mariucci:

Verdict: Inherent Trait

Poise In The Pocket
This is the ability to remain calm in the pocket with eye discipline (keeping eyes downfield rather than on the rush) and calm feet (not maneuvering to escape unnecessarily). It is not easy to remain calm with huge defensive ends and tackles smelling blood, but all great quarterbacks have a feel for where the rush is coming from while still giving their full attention to reading the secondary and finding open receivers. This trait is extremely hard to improve if a prospect does not show it in his college film, because the game gets much faster and more complicated in the NFL. If a prospect does not show great poise and feel in the pocket in college, then it is highly unlikely he'll learn this trait in the NFL.

Verdict: Inherent Trait

Clutch FactorThe ability to make good decisions and big plays when the game is on the line is inherent in some passers. Quarterbacks are made famous or infamous based on their two-minute drives. How does a prospect handle the pressure of having to win a game with the last drive of the game? The NFL is a competitive league and many games are decided by a touchdown or less, which means the game may be put into the quarterback's hands. You want a guy who is able to handle the pressure. Some quarterbacks are better equipped to handle that pressure and focus on what matters, while others will wilt under it. If a college quarterback isn't making plays when the lights are brightest, it is extremely hard for him to start when he reaches the NFL where the pressure is even greater.

Verdict: Inherent Trait

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/2016-nfl-draft/2016/03/17/quarterback-traits-the-attainable-versus-the-inherent/

Why didn't you post all of it?

accuracy-Attainable Trait
reading a Defense-Attainable Skill
throwing mechanics-Attainable Skill
Decision-Making-hung jury

You've told me you can't become more accurate?

and I'll debate all day having the ability to read coverages pre/post will improve your processing speed.

Also if Brock is so proficient at cognitive processing…why was that an issue in college? Did he just magically figure it out the moment he stepped in?

Poise: Purdy does not respond well to pressure. His first reaction to pressure is to escape the pocket and attempt to pick up yardage with his feet. At times under pressure, Purdy will force an unwarranted pass into coverage that at best becomes an incomplete pass.

Progressions: Purdy operates in a progression-based offense that works all levels of the field. Purdy struggles to comfortably work through all of his progressions. In most situations, Purdy gets stuck on his first option, and if that receiver isn't open he instantly looks for his check-down.

Release: Purdy's release can use some improvement. In the pocket, Purdy holds the ball low which means that at the time of his decision to throw, he has to first raise the ball and then release it. This affects him when trying to throw timing routes, often making the ball arrive late to the receiver.

Eh. Progressions isn't the same as processing. Processing is recognition and reaction. The greediness to make a big play can contribute to sticking on the first read as much as an inability to process. And given the risky passes he threw in college, and how he played at the NFL level, I say it's more likely he was just too reckless and was coached to run the offense correctly in the NFL, rather than he dramatically improved his processing ability.