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Originally posted by genus49:
Do whatever you want but right now you're arguing against facts.
In 2 of the 3 games he finished Trey was our leading rusher.
He absolutely has to be accounted for in the run game for defenses. That does open things up for the RBs. It's not all Trey but he does add something that defenses have to account for.
Originally posted by CharlieSheen:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by CharlieSheen:As I said, the same play can be run with a legitimate threat to go to the strong side if it's from a split back formation, or the slot is in motion. This isn't high school. It's the NFL. Linebackers are capable of dissecting a formation and watching more than just pulling linemen. Yes, counters can be run. But teams specifically scheme against the 49ers to avoid falling for that, to remain disciplined in their lanes. But either way, if what you say is true you'd expect the same average result, not more than an extra yard per carry. Hence why it's quite reasonable that the added thread of the QB taking the ball makes it harder on the defense (which you deny; you are patently denying that a QB used as an additional running threat adds to what the defense must pay attention to).
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by CharlieSheen:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
I'm not a Trey homer. I've been arguing with NY about Brock today too.
Deebo is a great player. He makes his own yards. The most important part of that play was obviously Deebo breaking the tackle attempt by the edge player. But there's no reasonable doubt that Trey doesn't cause middle linebackers to freeze during that mesh action, and there's no doubt on that particular run it helped a little bit by screwing up their angle of pursuit. Nevertheless, it's one run, and you seemed to ignore all the other facts about that game, such as the fact that even discounting that 51 yard run, the 49ers had about twice as many yards per carry with Trey than with Jimmy. In the same game.
And honestly, it boggles the mind why anyone would doubt that having a QB who can get yards on an inverted veer would affect how the defense plays the run. It's so obviously true it's spawned a cliche: "zone-read makes the defense play 11 on 11."
I'm not saying you're a Trey homer, just saying any Trey homer is going to say you're right here no matter what.
Yes in theory it does help the run game to have a QB that can run. You're taking that theory and some favorable numbers in a small sample, and drawing a conclusion that the film does not back
The film literally backs it up. I showed you linebackers and safeties both hesitating. You simply deny it and claim it's caused something else. Never mind the fact that the formation in question shows pretty clearly that there was only one legitimate threat in the direction of those pullers, and that was Trey. You can say, "But that's just scheme!" but if you put Jimmy back there YOU CAN'T RUN THAT unless you also put another back on the opposite side and hope to have success (which the 49ers have in fact done; we did a lot of split back stuff out of the gun in 2021, for precisely the reason to run plays like that). But with Trey you can come out in a formation with only one back next to the QB, thereby spreading out the defense, and successfully run that play.
That's the difference here. Yeah, the 49ers could do this with Jimmy. But they couldn't do it in that formation and expect to have the same level of success. And what benefit is there in that formation? A spread out defense.
Lastly, the sample size isn't that small for this tiny cumulative effect. It's over a 120 runs. By comparison, Brock threw 170 regular season passes.
No it doesn't. The LBs move becauee there are two lineman pulling to that side. It's natural for Lbs to do that when they see multiple guys pulling to one side. You give Trey the credit, I don't. I've seen us move Lbs like that without Trey
The safety stopping his feet for a second becauee of a fake bubble screen on the Deebo TD was not because of Trey eitherHe got faked out twice. First, he runs toward the center of the line of scrimmage, reacting to the mesh point, then he takes a false step to the left reacting to the fake pass.
I had no clue what you were talking about with 58 on the Deebo 30 yarder. I don't see him affected by Trey in anyway honestly58 first moves to the weak side presnap to counter the slight motion of the back, then at the snap he moves toward the line on the weak side because he's worried about Trey keeping it on a zone-read or running an option play with the back. It's not him being "faked out," it's the play type dictating that he cover the back end. It's scheme, which works because Trey can keep it or run the option.
This is what a QB who is a competent runner does: it allows you to call these kinds of plays over and over, and the defense must continually respect the back end. Without such a QB, the only way for this to work consistently is to have two backs remain in the back field or have jet motion. Teams are not biting on Jimmy running the zone read (hence why a couple times he's actually gotten a few yards keeping it; no one accounts for him doing it).
Take away the Deebo 50 yarder and TDP 20 yarder in the Seattle game and it's 37 yds on 10 carries. That is 3.7 ypc that was boosted over 5 ypc on runs that had nothing to do with TreyTake it away and it's 3.7 ypc vs 2.5 ypc. You still have to explain the 1.2 extra yards, which also matches with the regular season numbers, and you have to do it while denying that defenses hesitate at the mesh point of a zone-read action look. This is, of course, an impossible task, because defenses DO hesitate at the extended mesh point which accompanies zone-read type plays. They have to hesitate, or they'll move in the wrong direction.
Unless of course the QB is not a threat to actually keep the ball, and then they'll only react to it maybe once a game, and otherwise discount the QB as a possibility to run.
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Look, here's the bottom line: you say the defense is not respecting the QB as a threat to run, even though they are clearly hesitating at the mesh point. According to you, there is no difference. And yet the statistics clearly show there is a difference—even in the same game (even if we deduct both Deebo's long run AND TDP's long run, it's still over a yard per carry difference). You have no explanation for this difference, even though the fact that defenders hesitating at the mesh point clearly happens every time. Occam's razor dude. It's pretty clear the "11 on 11 football" cliche has a basis in reality.
Or we can just assume it's magic. Wait, no. It's Trey's "leadership." Or maybe his sexy musk. Wait, no ,no, it's definitely his absurd hairline. It causes defenders to be a microsecond slower as they contemplate what madness must be going on in Trey's head to continue to wear his hair that way.
You are trying too hard to give Lance credit for those runs. Watch Purdy mesh points with Mccaffrey. We can find a player on the defense that slow plays, or stops his feet, or takes the wrong angle on all the big runs. For that reason, I can't say those tiny little movements you point out are "because of Trey". Same thing with Brock, I never just jump to a conclusion and say those defenders got caught in the wash because of Brock, but we easily could if we break those runs down like you do for Trey.
You came in to the discussion on Treys individual talent as a runner defending him with how much he helps the run game. When you actually dive in, the big runs that inflated the YPC were not "because of Trey" at all. I've only looked at the Bears and Seahawks games, but I can say that in those 2 matchups, Trey is not the reason for the inflated YPC
Originally posted by eric_anthony:
Originally posted by genus49:
Do whatever you want but right now you're arguing against facts.
In 2 of the 3 games he finished Trey was our leading rusher.
He absolutely has to be accounted for in the run game for defenses. That does open things up for the RBs. It's not all Trey but he does add something that defenses have to account for.
I'm not sure why this is being debated
Originally posted by CharlieSheen:
Originally posted by genus49:
You can give the bulk of the credit wherever you want but fact is teams have to play the run with Trey back there differently than they do with Jimmy G or Brock.
Now maybe Brock can use his mobility and run similar plays but that's not the point.
Lance doesn't have to be Lamar or Justin Fields to impact the run game. Teams know we'll run him and that Trey if left unchecked can hurt them in the run game. Whether you want to admit it or not that does make it easier to run the ball.
I know how the run game works with running QBs. Im just looking at the actual runs that skewed our YPC in Treys starts
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
I literally showed you earlier that if you delete the two big ones you mentioned (claiming Trey's threat didn't suck the two linebackers in), it's still well over a yard more per carry while Trey was in in that game. 3.7 to 2.5.
Originally posted by eric_anthony:
Originally posted by genus49:
Do whatever you want but right now you're arguing against facts.
In 2 of the 3 games he finished Trey was our leading rusher.
He absolutely has to be accounted for in the run game for defenses. That does open things up for the RBs. It's not all Trey but he does add something that defenses have to account for.
I'm not sure why this is being debated
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
I think part of the reason it is debated is this thread has a consistent you can't draw definitive conclusions from limited play time, only 4 starts vibe, yet you have definitive conclusions such as our run game will be x,y,z with TL.
A couple thoughts, the ability of the QB to influence the run game is correlated to how dangerous that QB is with the ball in hand. The more dangerous the QB is as a run threat, the more he is drawing the attention of the D. You have actual NFL head coaches, who have said he's not moving very well out there, which I am seeing also, he moves ok I guess, but he does not look dangerous to me, as a runner. So I question how well this 11 v 11 TL run game stuff will work over time, if Ds stop respecting the threat of the TL run.
Furthermore, him getting seriously injured on a QB run, and him being injured throughout both his seasons now, may also be in the head of KS at this point, I am not sure if we lean into this as much going forward, maybe we do, but I am not sure.
Originally posted by krizay:Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:I think part of the reason it is debated is this thread has a consistent you can't draw definitive conclusions from limited play time, only 4 starts vibe, yet you have definitive conclusions such as our run game will be x,y,z with TL.
A couple thoughts, the ability of the QB to influence the run game is correlated to how dangerous that QB is with the ball in hand. The more dangerous the QB is as a run threat, the more he is drawing the attention of the D. You have actual NFL head coaches, who have said he's not moving very well out there, which I am seeing also, he moves ok I guess, but he does not look dangerous to me, as a runner. So I question how well this 11 v 11 TL run game stuff will work over time, if Ds stop respecting the threat of the TL run.
Furthermore, him getting seriously injured on a QB run, and him being injured throughout both his seasons now, may also be in the head of KS at this point, I am not sure if we lean into this as much going forward, maybe we do, but I am not sure.
While I don't dispute the 11 on 11 talk. I would love to see someone do a cut up of the defenses reaction to Brock and JG in same situations.
I have no clue what the results will show. Just would like to see the difference.
Originally posted by eric_anthony:
Originally posted by genus49:
Do whatever you want but right now you're arguing against facts.
In 2 of the 3 games he finished Trey was our leading rusher.
He absolutely has to be accounted for in the run game for defenses. That does open things up for the RBs. It's not all Trey but he does add something that defenses have to account for.
I'm not sure why this is being debated
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:Originally posted by eric_anthony:Originally posted by genus49:Do whatever you want but right now you're arguing against facts.
In 2 of the 3 games he finished Trey was our leading rusher.
He absolutely has to be accounted for in the run game for defenses. That does open things up for the RBs. It's not all Trey but he does add something that defenses have to account for.
I'm not sure why this is being debated
The guy who's debating against it manifestly hates that Trey is on the team, so that's your answer. Go through the "trade Trey" debates and you'll see exactly what I mean.
Originally posted by GoreGoreGore:
How is it possible to have the same debate every single day for months now lol.
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:Originally posted by CharlieSheen:Originally posted by genus49:You can give the bulk of the credit wherever you want but fact is teams have to play the run with Trey back there differently than they do with Jimmy G or Brock.
Now maybe Brock can use his mobility and run similar plays but that's not the point.
Lance doesn't have to be Lamar or Justin Fields to impact the run game. Teams know we'll run him and that Trey if left unchecked can hurt them in the run game. Whether you want to admit it or not that does make it easier to run the ball.
I know how the run game works with running QBs. Im just looking at the actual runs that skewed our YPC in Treys starts
I literally showed you earlier that if you delete the two big ones you mentioned (claiming Trey's threat didn't suck the two linebackers in), it's still well over a yard more per carry while Trey was in in that game. 3.7 to 2.5.
Originally posted by genus49:Originally posted by CharlieSheen:I know how the run game works with running QBs. Im just looking at the actual runs that skewed our YPC in Treys starts
Do whatever you want but right now you're arguing against facts.
In 2 of the 3 games he finished Trey was our leading rusher.
He absolutely has to be accounted for in the run game for defenses. That does open things up for the RBs. It's not all Trey but he does add something that defenses have to account for.
